Technical Analysis – 9 May 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

American Water Co, Inc. (AWK US)

• Shares closed at a high since Jan 2024 above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 132, Target 142, Stop 137

American Electric Power Co. Inc. (AEP US)

• Shares closed at a high since May 23.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 90.0, Target 96.0, Stop 87.0

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Olam Group Ltd. (OLG SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 1.19, Target 1.29, Stop 1.14

Aztech Global Ltd. (AZTECH SP)

• Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.95, Target 1.03, Stop 0.91

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Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (1171 HK)

• Shares closed at a 2-month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 18.40, Target 20.10, Stop 17.55

China Coal Energy Co Ltd (1898 HK)

• Shares closed at a 2-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
• Long – Entry 8.37, Target 9.15, Stop 7.98

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Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $10.13B, +15.1% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
• 1Q24 EPS: –$0.32, not comparable to consensus of $0.39
• 2Q24 Guidance: Gross Bookings of $38.75bn to $40.25bn, which represents 18% to 23% YoY growth on a constant currency basis; Adjusted EBITDA of $1.45bn to $1.53bn, which represents 58% to 67% YoY growth.
• Comment: Uber reported results beating revenue but posted an unexpected net loss and a weak set of guidance. Despite increased rides and deliveries, legal settlements and equity investments dragged down profitability. However, these are not anticipated to significantly affect Uber’s operational business in the near term. Gross bookings totaled $27.65 billion, falling short of analysts’ projections. Latin American ride-sharing bookings softened, attributed to tough year-over-year comparisons with the Carnival holiday period. Uber’s freight segment faces industry-wide challenges. On a positive note, a new partnership with Instacart aims to bolster competition with DoorDash and potentially enhance Uber’s delivery services. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $80. Neutral Outlook.

优步(UBER)

• 24财年第一季营收：101.3亿美元，同比增幅15.1%，超预期4,000万美元
• 24财年第一季每股亏损：0.32美元，市场预期为每股盈利0.39美元
• 24财年第二季指引：总预订量为387.5亿美元至402.5亿美元，按固定汇率计算同比增长18%至23%；调整后的EBITDA为14.5亿至15.3亿美元，同比增长58%至67%。
• 短评：优步公布的业绩超过收入，但意外出现净亏损，并发布了一套疲弱的指引。尽管乘车量和送货量有所增加，但法律和解和股权投资拖累了盈利能力。然而，这些预计不会在短期内对优步的运营业务产生重大影响。总预订量为276.5亿美元，低于分析师的预期。拉丁美洲的拼车预订量有所下降，原因是与去年同期相比，狂欢节期间的情况较为严峻。优步的货运业务面临着全行业的挑战。从积极的方面来看，优步与Instacart的新合作旨在加强与DoorDash的竞争，并有可能增强优步的送货服务。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：60美至80美元。中性前景。

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $1.86B, +23.2%YoY, beat estimates by $10M
• 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.20, beat estimates by $0.03
• 2Q24 Guidance: Expect a high-teens % revenue growth rate; Gross margin to decrease by approximately 50bps QoQ; GAAP operating expense up at a low-to-mid-single digit growth rate YoY. Expects Capex of $5mn, FCF 12 % of revenue.
• Comment: Shopify’s latest financial report showcased strong performance, though its forward guidance fell short. The projected high-teens percentage revenue growth aligns with analysts’ expectations but indicates a deceleration compared to previous quarters. The company reported an unadjusted loss of $0.21 per share, attributed to various one-time expenses, notably from new marketing initiatives. Additionally, the sale of its logistics arm to Flexport is expected to impact second-quarter sales growth. While U.S. consumer spending remains robust, Shopify anticipates challenges from foreign exchange fluctuations due to a strong dollar and a slowdown in European consumer activity. Notably, the company has enhanced its business-oriented artificial intelligence capabilities, introducing “Shopify Magic,” which automates listing generation and image editing for customers. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Neutral Outlook.

Shopify (SHOP)

• 24财年第一季营收：18.6亿美元，同比增幅23.2%，超预期1,000万美元
• 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.20美元，超预期0.03美元
• 24财年第二季指引：预计营收增长率将达到百分之十几；毛利率将按季下降约50个基点；GAAP运营费用同比增长个位数。预计资本支出为500万美元，现金流占收入的12%。
• 短评：Shopify最新的财务报告显示了强劲的表现，尽管其前瞻性指引不足。预计营收增幅将达到15%以上，与分析师的预期相符，但与前几个季度相比有所放缓。该公司公布了未经调整的每股亏损0.21美元，原因是各种一次性费用，特别是新的营销活动。此外，将其物流部门出售给Flexport预计将影响第二季度的销售增长。虽然美国消费者支出依然强劲，但由于美元走强和欧洲消费者活动放缓，Shopify预计将面临外汇波动带来的挑战。值得一提的是，该公司推出了能够自动生成商品清单和编辑图片的“Shopify Magic”，增强了以商业为导向的人工智能能力。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：55美至75美元。中性前景。

Arm Holdings plc. (ARM)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $928M, +46.6%YoY, beat estimates by $49.76M
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.36, beat estimates by $0.06
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $875mn – $925mn vs. 864.44mn consensus; Non-GAAP fully diluted EPS of $0.32 to $0.36 vs $0.31 consensus. FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range between $3.8bn – $4.1bn vs $3.98bn consensus; Non-GAAP fully diluted EPS of $1.45 – $1.65 vs $1.53 consensus.
• Comment: Arm Holdings reported a strong set of results for 4Q24. The company struck four major licensing agreements over the quarter and saw its royalties business benefitting from a new Arm design that commands a higher rate, resulting in a high YoY revenue growth for the quarter. However, the company issued a weak set of guidance, raising concerns that the tech industry’s artificial intelligence (AI) spending spree is slowing. Similarly, chip companies including AMD also presented a weaker than expected guidance, possibly highlighting a weak outlook for the industry in the near term. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

Arm控股 (ARM)

• 24财年第四季营收：9.28亿美元，同比增幅46.6%，超预期4,976万美元
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.36美元，超预期0.06美元
• 25财年第一季指引：预计营收为8.75亿至9.25亿美元，预期为8.6444亿美元；Non-GAAP完全稀释每股收益为0.32美元至0.36美元，而市场预期为0.31美元。25财年指引：预计营收在38亿至41亿美元之间，预期为39.8亿美元；Non-GAAP完全摊薄每股收益为1.45至1.65美元，而市场预期为1.53美元。
• 短评：Arm控股公布了24年第四季度的强劲业绩。该公司在本季度达成了四项主要的授权协议，其特许授权业务受益于新的Arm设计，该设计可以获得更高的费率，从而导致本季度的收入同比增长。然而，该公司发布了一套疲弱的指导方针，引发了人们对科技行业人工智能支出热潮正在放缓的担忧。同样，包括AMD在内的芯片公司也公布了弱于预期的财测，可能突显出该行业近期前景疲弱。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：80美至115美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $2.14B, +18%YoY, beat estimates by $80M
• 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.41, beat estimates by $0.18
• 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $2.68B to $2.74B vs $2.74B consensus. YoY growth rate of nights booked in Q2 will be relatively stable to Q1 and estimated that ADR to be up YoY. Expect adjusted EBITDA to be flat on a nominal basis. 3Q24 Guidance: Expect YOY revenue growth to accelerate in Q3 compared to Q2, due to strength in its summer backlog and travel demand from the Olympics and Euro Cup.
• Comment: Airbnb surpassed analysts’ expectations in its first-quarter results, with revenue increasing by 18% to US$2.14bn and earnings per share reaching US$0.41 compared to the expected US$0.24. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was US$424mn, up 62% YoY, while gross booking value reached US$22.9bn. Growth in nights and experiences booked was led by the Asia Pacific and Latin America regions, with Airbnb app downloads in the US increasing by 60% YoY. The company also highlighted special events like the solar eclipse, which drove engagement with its platform during the first quarter. However, the company provided weaker-than-expected guidance for the second quarter, due to currency exchange rates, timing of the Easter holiday, one-time payment processing incentive benefits, and higher marketing expenses. Despite this, Airbnb reported robust demand for travel ahead of the peak summer season, in the third quarter, citing events like the Olympics in Paris and the Euro Cup. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $140 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

爱彼迎 (ABNB)

• 24财年第一季营收：21.4亿美元，同比增幅18.0%，超预期8,000万美元
• 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.41美元，超预期0.18美元
• 24财年第二季指引：预计营收26.8亿至27.4亿美元，市场预期为27.4亿美元。第二季度预订夜数的同比增长率将相对稳定于第一季度，预计平均日费率同比将上升。预计调整后的EBITDA将在名义基础上持平。24年第三季度指引：预计第三季度同比收入增长将比第二季度加快，原因是夏季订单积压强劲，以及奥运会和欧洲杯的旅游需求。
• 短评：爱彼迎第一季度的业绩超出了分析师的预期，收入增长18%，达到21.4亿美元，每股收益达到0.41美元，高于预期的0.24美元。本季度调整后的EBITDA为4.24亿美元，同比增长62%，而总账面价值达到229亿美元。亚太和拉丁美洲地区的预订天数和体验量增长最快，其中美国的爱彼迎应用下载量同比增长60%。该公司还强调了日食等特殊事件，这在第一季度推动了其平台的参与度。然而，由于货币汇率、复活节假期的时间、一次性付款处理激励福利以及更高的营销费用，该公司第二季度的指导低于预期。尽管如此，爱彼迎报告称，在第三季度夏季旅游旺季到来之前，旅游需求强劲，原因是巴黎奥运会和欧洲杯等活动。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：140美至160美元。中性前景。

The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)

• 1Q24 Revenue: $491.25M, +28.3%YoY, beat estimates by $10.76M
• 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.26, beat estimates by $0.04
• 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of at least $575M vs $567.13M consensus and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $223M vs $219M consensus.
• Comment: Trade Desk Inc. surpassed first-quarter revenue and earnings expectations driven by advancements in technology, particularly in areas like connected TV (CTV), retail media, and the adoption of UID2 for identity tracking. The company reported first-quarter net income of US$32mn, up from US$9mn a year ago. Its CEO highlighted the increasing importance of the open Internet and the shift in advertising dollars away from Meta and Google. The Company’s platform, Kokai, is constantly evolving, providing advertisers with new and efficient ways to reach their target audience with precision. Trade Desk boasted over 95% customer retention in the quarter and highlighted its partnerships with premium publishers like Walt Disney Co. and Comcast Corp.’s NBCUniversal for ad inventory. For the second quarter, Trade Desk expects revenue of at least US$575mn and adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$223mn, surpassing analyst estimates. The company’s financials remain strong, with significant cash flow and a positive outlook for future growth, driven by key initiatives such as CTV, international expansion, and UID2 adoption. Looking ahead, The Trade Desk is well-positioned to continue to capture a larger share of the digital advertising landscape. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Positive Outlook.

The Trade Desk (TTD)

• 24财年第一季营收：4.9125亿美元，同比增幅28.3%，超预期1,076万美元
• 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.26美元，超预期0.04美元
• 24财年第二季指引：预计收入至少为5.75亿美元，预期为5.6713亿美元，调整后EBITDA约为2.23亿美元，预期为2.19亿美元。
• 短评：受技术进步的推动，Trade Desk公司第一季度的收入和收益超出了预期，特别是在连接电视(CTV)、零售媒体和采用UID2进行身份跟踪等领域。该公司公布第一季度净利润为3,200万美元，高于去年同期的900万美元。该公司首席执行官强调了开放互联网日益增长的重要性，以及广告收入从Meta和谷歌转移的趋势。该公司的Kokai平台不断发展，为广告商提供新的有效方法，以精确地达到目标受众。Trade Desk本季度的客户保留率超过95%，并强调了它与迪士尼公和康卡斯特公司旗下NBC环球等优质出版商在广告库存方面的合作关系。对于第二季度，Trade Desk预计收入至少为5.75亿美元，调整后的EBITDA约为2.23亿美元，超过分析师的预期。在CTV、国际扩张和UID2采用等关键举措的推动下，公司财务状况依然强劲，现金流充裕，未来增长前景乐观。展望未来，The Trade Desk将继续在数字广告领域占据更大的份额。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：80美至100美元。积极前景。

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