Technical Analysis – 17 May 2024
United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP US) 
- Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with constructive volume.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 182, Target 190, Stop 178
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ US)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 71.5, Target 76.5, Stop 69.0
CapitaLand Investment (CLI SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with higher volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 2.63, Target 2.83, Stop 2.53
Uni-Asia Group (UAG SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
- MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 0.840, Target 0.900, Stop 0.810
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (168 HK)
- Shares closed at a seven-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 62, Target 66, Stop 60
Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862 HK)
- Shares closed at a seven-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
- MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 20.2, Target 22.0, Stop 19.3
Walmart Inc (WMT)
- 1Q25 Revenue: $161.5B, +6.0% YoY, beat estimates by $3.36B
- 1Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.60, beat estimates by $0.08
- FY25 Guidance: Expect consolidated net sales (cc) to be at the high-end or slightly above original guidance vs 4.31% consensus. Adjusted EPS to be at the high-end or slightly above original guidance of $2.23-$2.37 vs $2.37 consensus.
- Comment: Walmart reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of US$0.60 per share and total revenue of US$161.51bn, both exceeding expectations. The company raised its full-year forecast and reported better-than-expected quarterly results, driven by easing inflation and stronger sales of groceries and non-essential merchandise. It noted increased visits from wealthier shoppers and maintained competitive price gaps. US comparable sales rose 3.9% YoY, with online sales surging 22% and its membership income grew more than 13%. Walmart’s growth was fuelled by its pickup and delivery services, and a significant increase in discounted items resonated with shoppers. The retailer’s gross margins improved due to newer business segments like advertising and Walmart+ membership. For the fiscal year ending January 2025, Walmart anticipates net sales growth at the higher end of 3% to 4% and operating income growth at the higher end of 4% to 6%. As America’s largest grocer, Walmart will continue to leverage its pricing power and economies of scale. Additionally, its new private label brand, BetterGoods, is expected to drive top-line growth as customers seek cost-effective options. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $60 to $75. Positive Outlook.
沃尔玛 (WMT)
- 25财年第一季营收：1,615亿美元，同比增幅6.0%，超预期33.6亿美元
- 25财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.60美元，超预期0.08美元
- 25财年指引：预计综合净销售额将处于高端或略高于最初的指引值，而市场预期为4.31%。调整后的每股收益将处于高端或略高于最初预期的2.23至2.37美元，而市场预期为2.37美元。
- 短评：沃尔玛公布第一季度调整后每股收益为0.60美元，总收入为1,615.1亿美元，均超出预期。该公司上调了全年预期，并公布了好于预期的季度业绩，这主要得益于通胀缓解以及杂货和非必需品销售走强。该公司指出，富裕购物者的访问量有所增加，并保持了具有竞争力的价格差距。美国可比销售额同比增长3.9%，在线销售额增长22%，会员收入增长超过13%。沃尔玛的增长是由其提货和送货服务推动的，折扣商品的大幅增加引起了购物者的共鸣。由于广告和沃尔玛+会员等新业务板块，该零售商的毛利率有所提高。在截至2025年1月的财年中，沃尔玛预计净销售额增幅将在3%至4%之间，营业收入增幅将在4%至6%之间。作为美国最大的食品杂货商，沃尔玛将继续利用其定价权和规模经济。此外，随着客户寻求具有成本效益的选择，其新的自有品牌BetterGoods预计将推动营收增长。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：60美至75美元。积极前景。
Baidu Inc (BIDU)
- 1Q24 Revenue: $4.37B, +1.0%YoY, beat estimates by $30M
- 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.76, beat estimates by $0.57
- FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- Comment: Baidu surpassed analysts’ expectations for first-quarter revenue, driven by a recovery in advertising sales and increased demand for its AI-powered cloud products. The company is optimistic that its AI initiatives, including its GPT-like model Ernie, will drive future sales and profits. Despite challenges in the ad business due to economic conditions affecting SMEs, Baidu’s revenue for the quarter was 31.51bn yuan (US$4.37bn), exceeding the average estimate of 31.21bn yuan. Baidu has intensified efforts to boost sales from AI-related products and services as part of a rebranding initiative, although it still primarily earns revenue from advertising. Baidu Core’s online marketing revenue remained stable, while AI Cloud revenue grew by 12% to 4.7bn yuan due to end-to-end optimization of AI technology. AI-related revenue contributed 6.9% of the total cloud business revenue. Daily usage of Ernie by cloud clients increased to 200mn. Baidu Core’s revenue increased by 4% to 23.8bn yuan, while its streaming service iQIYI saw a 5% decline to 7.9bn yuan. Online marketing revenue rose 3% to 17bn yuan. Baidu is also expanding its autonomous driving business, aiming for profitability next year. The company reported an adjusted net income of 7bn yuan, beating the average estimate of 5.57bn yuan. Looking ahead, as China’s consumer sentiment continues to improve alongside its government initiatives to stimulate its economy, Baidu will see an improvement in its advertising business and an improvement in its AI segment as more users integrate AI usage into their daily lives. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $105 to $125. Positive Outlook.
百度 (BIDU)
- 24财年第一季营收：43.7亿美元，同比增幅1.0%，超预期3,000万美元
- 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.76美元，超预期0.57美元
- 24财年指引：不提供指引。
- 短评：受广告销售复苏和对其人工智能云产品需求增加的推动，百度第一季度收入超出了分析师的预期。该公司乐观地认为，其人工智能计划，包括类似GPT的模型文心一言，将推动未来的销售和利润。尽管由于影响中小企业的经济状况，广告业务面临挑战，但百度本季度的收入为35.1亿元人民币(43.7亿美元)，超过了平均预期的312.1亿元人民币。作为品牌重塑计划的一部分，百度加大了推动人工智能相关产品和服务销售的力度，尽管该公司的收入仍主要来自广告。百度核心的在线营销收入保持稳定，而AI云的收入由于AI技术的端到端优化增长了12%，达到47亿元。人工智能相关收入占云业务总收入的6.9%。云客户对文心一言的日使用量增至2亿次。百度核心的收入增长了4%，达到238亿元人民币，而其流媒体服务爱奇艺的收入下降了5%，至79亿元人民币。网络营销收入增长3%，至人民币170亿元。百度也在扩大其自动驾驶业务，目标是明年实现盈利。该公司公布调整后净利润为70亿元，超过了55.7亿元的平均预期。展望未来，随着中国消费者信心继续改善，以及政府刺激经济的举措，随着更多用户将人工智能的使用融入日常生活，百度的广告业务和人工智能领域将有所改善。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：105美至125美元。积极前景。
JD.Com Inc (JD)
- 1Q24 Revenue: $36B, +7%YoY, beat estimates by $320M
- 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.78, beat estimates by $0.14
- FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- Comment: JD.com reported first-quarter revenue that exceeded market estimates, driven by price cuts and discount coupons which boosted sales amidst cautious consumer spending. The company has been slashing prices to maintain e-commerce market share in China, where consumers are increasingly turning to low-cost platforms. Its CEO highlighted that categories such as general merchandise, electronics, home goods, and apparel performed well. JD.com saw accelerated user growth in lower-tier cities, surpassing that in higher-tier cities. The company’s non-GAAP net profit rose 3.4% to 8.9bn yuan (US$1.23bn), with a 7% increase in revenue to 260bn yuan, beating the average analyst estimate of 257.72bn yuan. Net income attributable to shareholders grew nearly 14% to 7.13bn yuan from 6.26bn yuan a year earlier. Despite concerns about the impact of low-cost strategies on margins, its CFO reassured analysts that increasing users and profitability are not contradictory, emphasizing a virtuous cycle of business enhancement and profit growth through improved user experience. JD.com has been less aggressive in international expansion compared to its peers, recently deciding not to acquire the warehouse and store network of British retailer Currys. However, with expectations of slowing domestic growth, JD.com may look to explore new overseas revenue streams. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $30 to $40. Positive Outlook.
京东 (JD)
- 24财年第一季营收：360亿美元，同比增幅7.0%，超预期3.2亿美元
- 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.78美元，超预期0.14美元
- 24财年指引：不提供指引。
- 短评：京东公布的第一季度收入超过市场预期，这是由于降价和折扣券在谨慎的消费者支出中提振了销售。该公司一直在大幅降价，以保持在中国电子商务市场的份额，中国消费者越来越多地转向低成本平台。该公司首席执行官强调，日用百货、电子产品、家居用品和服装等品类表现良好。京东在低线城市的用户增长加速，超过了高线城市。该公司Non-GAAP净利润增长3.4%，至人民币89亿元(合12.3亿美元)，收入增长7%，至人民币2,600亿元，超过分析师平均预期的2,577.2亿元。归属于股东的净收入从上年同期的人民币62.6亿元增长近14%，至人民币71.3亿元。尽管投资者担心低成本战略对利润率的影响，但其首席财务官向分析师保证，增加用户和盈利能力并不矛盾，并强调通过改善用户体验实现业务增强和利润增长的良性循环。与同行相比，京东在国际扩张方面不那么积极，最近决定不收购英国零售商Currys的仓库和商店网络。然而，随着国内增长放缓的预期，京东可能会寻求探索新的海外收入来源。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：30美至40美元。积极前景。
Deere & Co (DE)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $15.24B, -12.4%YoY, beat estimates by $1.92B
- 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $8.53, beat estimates by $0.61
- FY24 Guidance: Expect Net sales for Production & Precision Ag segment to be down 20% to 25%, Small Ag & Turf to be down 20% to 25%, Construction & Forestry to be down 5% to 10%; Financial Services net income of $770mn.
- Comment: Deere & Co reported strong results but issued weaker-than-expected guidance due to declining crop prices, with corn down 22% and soybeans 13% over the past 12 months. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates net farm income will drop to $116bn from $156bn in 2023, leading to reduced demand for Deere’s machinery. In response, the company will manage production and inventory levels to adapt to changing demand and future positioning. Additionally, the high-interest rate environment is dampening consumer spending, prompting farmers to reduce large purchases like machinery. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $365 to $400. Negative Outlook.
迪尔 (DE)
- 24财年第二季营收：152.4亿美元，同比跌幅12.4%，超预期19.2亿美元
- 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：8.53美元，超预期0.61美元
- 24财年指引：预计生产和精密农业部门的净销售额将下降20%至25%，小型农业和草坪部门将下降20%至25%，建筑和林业部门将下降5%至10%；金融服务净收入7.7亿美元。
- 短评：迪尔公司公布了强劲的业绩，但由于农作物价格下跌，其业绩预期低于预期。过去12个月，玉米和大豆价格分别下跌了22%和13%。美国农业部估计，到2023年，农业净收入将从1,560亿美元降至1,160亿美元，导致对迪尔机械的需求减少。作为回应，公司将管理生产和库存水平，以适应不断变化的需求和未来的定位。此外，高利率环境抑制了消费者支出，促使农民减少购买机械等大宗商品。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：360美至400美元。负面前景。
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)
- 2Q24 Revenue: $6.65B, +24%YoY, beat estimates by $110M
- 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.09, beat estimates by $0.10
- 3Q24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be approximately $6.65bn vs consensus ot $6.58bn, plus or minus $3400mn; Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.83 to $2.19 vs consensus of $1.97.
- Comment: Applied Materials posted strong results and provided optimistic guidance, but it failed to impress investors. Management emphasized the company’s robust portfolio of materials engineering technologies essential for advancements in AI, IoT, EVs, and clean energy, positioning it well for growth in these areas. The company has benefited from increased demand for wafer fabrication equipment, as customers invest heavily in producing AI chips. The rising need for high-performance computing and data centers has also boosted demand for memory semiconductors, such as DRAM and flash memory, aiding chip tool suppliers. Additionally, key customers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have issued optimistic forecasts, likely indicating strong future demand for Applied Materials. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $230. Positive Outlook.
应用材料 (AMAT)
- 24财年第二季营收：66.5亿美元，同比增幅24.0%，超预期1.1亿美元
- 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.09美元，超预期0.10美元
- 24财年第三季指引：预计净收入约为66.5亿美元，而市场预期为65.8亿美元，上下浮动34亿美元；Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益预计在1.83美元至2.19美元之间，而市场预期为1.97美元。
- 短评：应用材料公司公布了强劲的业绩，并提供了乐观的指引，但未能给投资者留下深刻印象。管理层强调，公司强大的材料工程技术组合对人工智能、物联网、电动汽车和清洁能源的发展至关重要，为这些领域的增长奠定了良好的基础。随着客户大举投资生产人工智能芯片，对晶圆制造设备的需求增加，该公司从中受益。对高性能计算和数据中心的需求不断增长，也推动了对DRAM和闪存等存储半导体的需求，从而帮助了芯片工具供应商。此外，台积电等主要客户发布了乐观的预测，可能表明未来对应用材料的需求强劲。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：200美至230美元。积极前景。
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO)
- 4Q24 Revenue: $1.4B, -3.4%YoY, beat estimates by $80M
- 4Q24 GAAP EPS: -$17.02, not comparable to consensus.
- 1Q25 Guidance: Expect total net revenue between $1.3bn to $1.35bn; cost of revenue between $559mn to $578mn; operating expenses between $928mn to $938mn; GAAP EPS between -$1.58 to -$1.43; Net booking between $1.2bn to $1.25bn. FY25 Guidance: Total net revenue between $5.57bn to $5.67bn; Cost of revenue between $2.43bn to $2.46bn; Operating expenses between $3.56bn to $3.58bn; Net bookings of $5.55bn to $5.65bn; GAPP EPS between -$3.90 to -$3.50.
- Comment: Take-Two Interactive Software posted better-than-expected revenue but reported a net loss for the quarter. The company also provided a weaker-than-expected guidance despite setting the release of “Grand Theft Auto VI” in the fall of calendar 2025, which is expected to be an instant hit and bring in billions of dollars in sales after its release. To increase profitability, the company is also engaged in a cost-cutting strategy recently, letting go of around 5% of its workforce, as well as scrapping several projects, as the company continues to face headwinds in consumer spending. The company expects bookings to accelerate fiscal 2025 onwards, helped by the GTA launch and a string of other releases. Other competitors like Electronic Arts and Roblox also provided gloomy forecasts in the near term, highlighting the lackluster demand within the industry amidst an uncertain economy. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $135 to $150. Neutral Outlook.
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
- 24财年第四季营收：14.0亿美元，同比跌幅3.4%，超预期8,000万美元
- 24财年第四季GAAP每股亏损：17.02美元，与市场预期不具可比性
- 25财年第一季指引：预计总净收入在13亿至13.5亿美元之间；收入成本在5.59亿美元至5.78亿美元之间；运营费用在9.28亿美元至9.38亿美元之间；GAAP每股亏损在1.58美元至1.43美元之间；净预订额在12亿至12.5亿美元之间。25财年指引：总净收入在55.7亿美元至56.7亿美元之间；收入成本在24.3亿美元至24.6亿美元之间；运营费用在35.6亿美元至35.8亿美元之间；净预订量为55.5亿至56.5亿美元；GAPP每股亏损在3.90美元至3.50美元之间。
- 短评：Take-Two Interactive Software公布了好于预期的收入，但该季度净亏损。尽管该公司将《侠盗猎车手VI》定于2025年秋季发布，但该公司的业绩预期也低于预期。预计《侠盗猎车手VI》一经推出就会大获成功，并在发布后带来数十亿美元的销售额。为了提高盈利能力，该公司最近还采取了削减成本的策略，裁掉了约5%的员工，并取消了几个项目，因为该公司继续面临消费者支出的逆风。该公司预计，在侠盗猎车手的推出和一系列其他产品的推动下，2025财年以后的预订量将加速增长。艺电和Roblox等竞争对手也给出了悲观的短期预测，突显出在经济不确定的情况下，该行业的需求低迷。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：135美至150美元。中性前景。
