KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 8 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL US)

● Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
● MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
● Long – Entry 68.8, Target 74.8, Stop 65.8

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM US)

● Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
● MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
● Long – Entry 145, Target 155, Stop 140

Back To Top

Venture Corp Ltd. (VMS SP)

A graph of a stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023, above the 200dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 14.0, Target 15.0, Stop 13.5

Japfa Ltd. (JAP SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.210, Target 0.230, Stop 0.200

Back To Top

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co Ltd (570 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.27, Target 3.57, Stop 3.12

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since October 2023 above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 21.6, Target 22.8, Stop 21.0

Back To Top

Eli Lilly And Co. (LLY)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $9.35B, +28.1% YoY, beat estimates by $380M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.49, beat estimates by $0.12
  • FY24 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $40.4bn to $41.6bn vs $39.14bn consensus. EPS in the range of $11.80 to $12.30 and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $12.20 to $12.70 vs $12.38 consensus.
  • Comment: Eli Lilly exceeded Q4 revenue and earnings estimates, supported by its newly launched portfolio consisting of its weight loss drug, Zepbound and increased prices for its diabetes treatment, Mounjaro. Zepbound which was only approved by US regulators in early November achieved $175.8mn in Q4 sales. Revenue is expected to accelerate in 2H24 in line with the increased availability of incretin drug doses, that help suppress appetite and regulate blood sugar. Eli Lilly expects high demand for their incretin drugs in 2024, exceeding their current supply. Despite doubling production capacity in 2023, they plan further expansion with the most significant increase in the latter half of 2024. This should result in 1.5 times more sellable doses compared to the same period last year. A new manufacturing site in North Carolina is also planned to be operational by late 2024, providing additional supply in 2025. Additionally, the increase in prices for its older drugs helped to increase Eli Lilly’s revenue with Mounjaro sales amounting to $2.21bn in Q4 sales up from $279.2mn in 4Q22 and above analysts’ estimates of $1.73bn. Revenue for both Verzenio and Jardiance rose 42% and 30% respectively driven by an increase in both demand and higher prices. Meanwhile, Trulicity and Humalog sales declined 14% and 33% respectively due to lower prices, which partially offset the higher prices on other drugs. Eli Lilly expects a decision on their Alzheimer’s drug donanemab in 1Q24. Even with a slight decline in prices expected for its core business of drugs, Eli Lilly’s top lines will continue to benefit from the strong demand for its incretin drugs. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $680 to $750. Positive Outlook.

礼来(LLY)

  • 23财年第四季营收：93.5亿美元, 同比增幅28.1%，超预期3.8亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.49美元，超预期0.12美元
  • 24财年指引：营收在404亿至416亿美元之间，而市场预期为391.4亿美元。每股收益在11.80美元至12.30美元之间，Non-GAAP每股收益在12.20美元至12.70美元之间，而市场预期为12.38美元。
  • 短评：得益于新推出的减肥药Zepbound和糖尿病治疗药物Mounjaro价格的上涨，礼来公司第四季度的收入和收益超出了预期。11月初才获得美国监管机构批准的Zepbound在第四季度实现了1.758亿美元的销售额。随着有助于抑制食欲和调节血糖的肠促胰岛素药物剂量的增加，收入预计将在下半年加速增长。礼来公司预计，到2024年，对其促肠促胰岛素药物的需求将会很高，超过目前的供应量。尽管产能在2023年翻了一番，但他们计划在2024年下半年进一步扩张，增幅最大。这将导致可销售剂量比去年同期增加1.5倍。北卡罗来纳州的一个新生产基地也计划在2024年底投入运营，到2025年提供额外的供应。此外，老药价格的上涨帮助礼来公司增加了收入，第四季度Mounjaro的销售额达到22.1亿美元，高于去年第四季度的2.792亿美元，也高于分析师预期的17.3亿美元。由于需求增加和价格上涨，Verzenio和Jardiance的收入分别增长了42%和30%。与此同时，Trulicity和Humalog由于价格下降，销售额分别下降14%和33%，部分抵消了其他药品价格上涨的影响。礼来公司计将在24年第一季度对其阿尔茨海默病药物donanemab做出决定。即使其核心业务药品价格预计将略有下降，礼来公司的收入线仍将受益于其促肠促胰岛素药物的强劲需求。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：680美至750美元。积极前景。

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: €3.67B, +16% YoY, missing estimates by €50M
  • 4Q23 EPS: -€0.36, miss estimates by €0.05
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects revenue to be €3.6bn. Margins to tick down slightly to 26.4%, driven by YoY improvements in music and podcasting. Monthly active users (MAUs) to be 618mn and expects subscriber count to increase 239mn.
  • Comment: Spotify fell short of Q4 revenue and earnings expectations, but its strong 1Q24 guidance offered reassurance. Despite an operating loss, the company projected a significant turnaround to positive operating income in Q1. While experiencing a net loss, Spotify outperformed expectations with robust user growth, achieving a 23% YoY increase in total monthly active users and a 15% YoY increase in premium subscribers. Free cash flow increased significantly to €396mn compared to €216mn in Q3, and average revenue per user rose 1% to €4.6. Spotify has been attempting to improve its profitability efforts, despite previous spending impacting margins. The company is revamping its podcast strategy for broader distribution. Recent deals with popular podcasters like Joe Rogan and Alexandra Cooper signal a shift towards maximizing revenue with Spotify being the main distributor and managing ad sales. Spotify’s multi-pronged approach, including cost-cutting through layoffs, strategic pricing adjustments, royalty structure revisions, and free audiobooks for paying subscribers, coupled with its recent shift towards podcast distribution instead of exclusivity, has increased our confidence in its path toward profitability. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $220 to $260. Positive Outlook.

Spotify(SPOT)

  • 23财年第四季营收：36.7亿欧元，同比增长16%，逊预期5,000万欧元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股亏损：0.36欧元，逊预期0.05欧元
  • 24财年第一季指引：计营收将达到36亿欧元。受音乐和播客业务同比增长的推动，利润率小幅下降至26.4%。月活跃用户将达到6.18亿，预计用户数量将增加2.39亿。
  • 短评：Spotify未能达到第四季度的收入和盈利预期，但其强劲的24年第一季度指引让人放心。尽管出现了运营亏损，但该公司预计第一季度将实现盈利。虽然经历了净亏损，但Spotify的表现超出了预期，用户增长强劲，月活跃用户总数同比增长23%，付费用户同比增长15%。自由现金流从第三季度的2.16亿欧元大幅增长至3.96亿欧元，每用户平均收入增长1%至4.6欧元。尽管之前的支出影响了利润率，但Spotify一直在努力提高盈利能力。该公司正在调整其播客战略，以扩大其传播范围。最近与乔·罗根(Joe Rogan)和亚历山德拉·库珀(Alexandra Cooper)等热门播客的交易表明，Spotify作为主要分销商并管理广告销售，正朝着收入最大化的方向转变。Spotify采取了多管齐下的方法，包括通过裁员削减成本、战略性定价调整、修改版税结构、为付费用户提供免费有声读物，再加上它最近转向播客发行，而不是独家发行，这些都增强了我们对其盈利之路的信心。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：220美至260美元。积极前景。

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $302.57M, -58.2% YoY, miss estimates by $25.44M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.54 miss estimates by $0.01
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Revenue to be within a range of $260mn to $300mn vs 315.94mn consensus, which includes shipments of 70 to 90-megawatt hours of IQ batteries; Non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 44.0% to 47.0% with net Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) benefit and 40.0% to 43% excluding net IRA benefit; Net IRA benefit to be within a range of $12.0bn to $14.0bn based on estimated shipments of 500k units of U.S. manufactured microinverters; Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $80.0mn to $84.0mn.
  • Comment: While the company reported a weak set of results, it expects inventory levels to normalize and demand for its products to pick up by the end of the second quarter. Solar firms have been facing rising inventory levels in Europe as well as softening customer demand in the U.S. due to the metering reform in California and high lending rates. Management mentioned that the solar market in Europe is already showing early signs of recovery, and they expect the non-California states to bounce back quickly. The company has also introduced new microinverter models to cater to the preferences of different markets, as well as to recapture the demand as the market recovers. Global demand for green energy is still strong and is likely to continue growing once rate cuts kick in and consumer sentiments improve. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $130. Neutral Outlook.

Enphase能源(ENPH)

  • 23财年第四季营收：3.0257亿美元, 同比跌幅58.2%，逊预期2,544万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.54美元，超预期0.01美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：营收将在2.6亿至3亿美元之间，而市场预期为3.1594亿美元，其中包括70至90兆瓦时的IQ电池出货量；扣除《通货膨胀削减法案》(IRA)净收益后，Non-GAAP毛利率在44.0%至47.0%之间；扣除IRA净收益后，毛利率在40.0%至43%之间；根据美国制造的50万台微型逆变器的估计出货量，净IRA收益将在120亿至140亿美元之间；Non-GAAP运营费用在8,000万美元至8,400万美元之间。
  • 短评：虽然该公司公布了一系列疲弱的业绩，但预计到第二季度末，库存水平将恢复正常，对其产品的需求将回升。太阳能公司一直面临着欧洲库存水平上升以及美国客户需求疲软的问题，原因是加州的计量改革和贷款利率高企。管理层提到，欧洲的太阳能市场已经显示出复苏的早期迹象，他们预计加州以外的州将迅速反弹。该公司还推出了新的微型逆变器型号，以满足不同市场的偏好，并在市场复苏时重新抓住需求。全球对绿色能源的需求依然强劲，一旦降息生效，消费者信心改善，这种需求可能会继续增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：90美至130美元。中性前景。

Ford Motor Co. (F)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $46.0B, +4.0% YoY, on comparable vehicle volumes
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.29, beat estimates by $0.17
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Full-year adjusted EBIT of $10bn to $12bn and to generate $6bn to $7bn in adjusted free cash flow, with capital expenditures of $8bn to $9.5bn; presumes flat to modestly higher full-year U.S. industry volume, with overall lower vehicle pricing. Upsides include beneficial pricing and a mix from 12 months of sales of the all-new Super Duty that Ford Pro introduced in 2023. The company also expects total costs to be flat YoY.
  • 4Q23 Dividend: Ford Motor declares $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, and a $0.18/share supplemental dividend. Both dividends are payable March 1; for shareholders of record Feb. 16; ex-div Feb. 15. Forward yield 4.97%.
  • Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, and offered a better-than-expected outlook as cost cuts and higher profits from its commercial car business are expected to more than offset the losses from its EVs. The industry sees the growth of EVs slowing down, with consumer sentiment shifting and more buyers flocking to hybrids. Going forward, Ford would be slowing investment in new EV capacity to match the slower demand and instead place more focus on the commercial gas-engine business, especially so in its commercial truck and van division, where it is expected to record between $8bn to $9bn in operating profit in 2024, surpassing those from its broader gas-engine operations, and at the same time capturing the changing demand. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $12 to $15. Positive Outlook.

福特汽车(F)

  • 23财年第四季营收：460亿美元, 同比增幅4.0%，按可比较的车辆数量
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.29美元，超预期0.17美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：全年调整后息税前利润为100亿至120亿美元，调整后自由现金流为60亿至70亿美元，资本支出为80亿至95亿美元；预计美国汽车行业全年销量将持平至小幅上升，整体汽车定价将走低。有利因素包括优惠的定价，以及福特Pro于2023年推出的全新Super Duty车型12个月的销售组合。该公司还预计总成本将与去年同期持平。
  • 23财年第四季股息：福特汽车宣布每股0.15美元的季度股息，与之前一致，每股0.18美元的补充股息。两笔股息均于3月1日支付；2月16日股东登记；二月十五日除息日。远期收益率4.97%。
  • 短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，并提供了好于预期的前景，因为其商用车业务的成本削减和利润增长预计将抵消电动汽车业务的亏损。随着消费者情绪的转变，越来越多的买家涌向混合动力汽车，电动汽车的增长正在放缓。展望未来，福特将放缓对新电动汽车产能的投资，以适应需求放缓，转而将更多注意力放在商用燃气发动机业务上，尤其是商用卡车和货车部门。预计到2024年，该部门的营业利润将达到80亿至90亿美元，超过其更广泛的燃气发动机业务，同时抓住不断变化的需求。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：12美至15美元。积极前景。

Fortinet Inc. (FTNT)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.42B, +10.9% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.51 beat estimates by $0.08
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expected Revenue in the range of $1.3bn to $1.36bn vs $1.38 consensus; Billings in the range of $1.39bn to $1.45bn; Diluted non-GAAP net income per share attributable to Fortinet in the range of $0.37 to $0.39 vs $0.37 consensus. FY2024 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $5.715bn to $5.815bn; Diluted non-GAAP net income per share attributable to Fortinet, Inc. in the range of $1.65 to $1.70.
  • Comment: The company posted a solid set of results, reflecting the company’s successful sales strategy shift and the improved execution of their sales teams. The company is also shifting its strategic focus to expand its service offerings and transitioning to a subscription-based model, reflected in the significant growth of service revenue, which grew 28% YoY, reaching $3.38bn for FY23. As demand for cloud services is expected to continue as more companies jump onto the AI bandwagon, Fortinet and its competitors likewise have their focus on a new growth market: Secure Access Service Edge. The Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) market is expected to grow in 2024, with the expected growth attributed to rising demand for integrated networking and security solutions tailored for the hybrid work environment. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $80. Positive Outlook.

飞塔信息 (FTNT)

  • 23财年第四季营收：14.2亿美元, 同比增幅10.9%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.51美元，超预期0.08美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：预期营收在13亿至13.6亿美元之间，预期营收为1.38美元；帐面金额在13.9亿至14.5亿美元之间；应归属于股东的摊薄后Non-GAAP每股净收益为0.37美元至0.39美元，而市场预期为0.37美元。2024财年指引：营收在57.15亿美元至58.15亿美元之间；应归属于股东的摊薄后Non-GAAP每股净收益在1.65美元至1.70美元之间。
  • 短评：该公司公布了一系列坚实的业绩，反映了公司成功的销售战略转变和销售团队执行力的提高。该公司还将其战略重点转移到扩大其服务产品，并过渡到基于订阅的模式，这反映在服务收入的显着增长上，同比增长28%，在23财年达到33.8亿美元。随着越来越多的公司加入人工智能的行列，对云服务的需求预计将继续增长，公司及其竞争对手同样将重点放在了一个新的增长市场：安全访问服务边缘(Secure Access Service Edge)。安全访问服务边缘(SASE)市场预计将在2024年增长，预计增长归因于为混合工作环境量身定制的集成网络和安全解决方案的需求不断增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：70美至80美元。积极前景。

Back To Top