KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 26 April 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with increased volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 167.0, Target 187.0, Stop 157.0

Carvana Co. (CVNA US)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 76.0, Target 86.0, Stop 71.0

^ Back To Top

Japfa Ltd. (JAP SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.290, Target 0.320, Stop 0.275

Great Eastern Holdings Ltd. (GE SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since August 2023.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 18.58, Target 18.88, Stop 18.43

^ Back To Top

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 244, Target 264, Stop 234
A line in a white background Description automatically generated

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd (2388 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed at a high since July 2023, with constructive volume. The 50dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 23.5, Target 25.5, Stop 22.5

^ Back To Top

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $3.7B, +29.0% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.77, beat estimates by $0.46
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect 2Q24 EPS of $2.65 to $2.75 vs $2.37 consensus. FY24 Guidance: Net Yields are expected to increase 9.0% to 10.0% in Constant-Currency and as-reported; NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD is expected to increase approximately 5.5% in Constant-Currency; Adjusted EPS is expected to grow 60% year over year and be in the range of $10.70 to $10.90, compared to $9.90 to $10.10 previously.
  • Comment: Royal Caribbean Cruises announced robust financial results and adjusted their guidance upwards, driven by stronger-than-expected demand that propelled a record-breaking Wave Season and maintained booking strength in April, both in terms of volume and pricing. The company accommodated 2.05 million passengers in the first quarter of 2024, marking a nearly 14% increase year-over-year. The surge in demand for sea vacations has provided Royal Caribbean with the opportunity to elevate ticket prices, aiming to narrow the pricing disparity with land-based vacations and bolster profitability. Management emphasized the strong booking performance across all key itineraries, accompanied by sustained growth in onboard spending. Leveraging this sustained momentum, management expresses optimism about achieving their financial targets for the fiscal year 2024. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $155. Positive Outlook.

加勒比邮轮(RCL)

  • 24财年第一季营收：37.0亿美元，同比增幅29.0%，超预期1,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.77美元，超预期0.46美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计24年第二季度每股收益为2.65至2.75美元，而市场预期为2.37美元。24财年指引：按固定汇率计算的净收益率预计将增长9.0%至10.0%；按固定汇率计算，每个可用乘客游轮日的净邮轮成本(不包括燃料)预计增长约5.5%；调整后的每股收益预计将同比增长60%，介于10.70美元至10.90美元之间，而此前的预期为9.90美元至10.10美元。
  • 短评：皇家加勒比邮轮公司公布了强劲的财务业绩，并上调了业绩预期，原因是需求超出预期，推动了创纪录的海浪季节，并在4月份保持了预订量和定价方面的强劲势头。该公司在2024年第一季度接待了205万名乘客，同比增长近14%。海上度假需求的激增为皇家加勒比提供了提高票价的机会，旨在缩小与陆上度假的价格差距，提高盈利能力。管理层强调，所有主要航线的预订表现强劲，同时机上消费持续增长。利用这种持续的势头，管理层对实现2024财年的财务目标表示乐观。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：130美至155美元。积极前景。

Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $15.8B, -0.6% YoY, miss estimates by $190M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.60, beat estimates by $0.47
  • FY24 Guidance: Forecast roughly flat sales for the year, similar to FY23 results.
  • Comment: Caterpillar reported stronger-than-anticipated results for the first quarter of 2024, yet cautioned about an anticipated decline in sales for the current quarter. This downturn is attributed to dealers reducing equipment inventories, raising concerns that the prolonged surge in machinery demand may be nearing its conclusion. The company experienced subdued sales of construction equipment across all regions except North America, where robust construction demand is anticipated to persist throughout the year due to the implementation of the U.S. government’s $1 trillion infrastructure legislation. However, this positive outlook was insufficient to counterbalance reduced demand in Europe and prolonged sluggishness in China, where economic uncertainties have dampened construction activity, leading to a reduction in the production of certain machinery. Furthermore, the extended period of high-interest rates has contributed to diminished spending on significant capital investments. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $300 to $370. Neutral Outlook.

卡特彼勒(CAT)

  • 24财年第一季营收：158亿美元，同比跌幅0.6%，逊预期1.9亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：5.6美元，超预期0.47美元
  • 24财年指引：预计今年的销售额大致持平，与23财年相似。
  • 短评：卡特彼勒公布了2024年第一季度强于预期的业绩，但警告称，预计本季度的销售额将出现下滑。这种低迷归因于经销商减少设备库存，这引发了人们对机械需求长期激增可能即将结束的担忧。该公司在除北美以外的所有地区的建筑设备销售低迷，由于美国政府实施1万亿美元的基础设施立法，预计全年强劲的建筑需求将持续。然而，这种积极的前景不足以抵消欧洲需求的减少和中国经济的长期低迷，中国经济的不确定性抑制了建筑活动，导致某些机械的产量减少。此外，长期的高利率导致了重大资本投资支出的减少。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：300美至370美元。中性前景。

Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $61.9B, +17.1% YoY, beat estimates by $1.01B
  • 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.94, beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY24 Guidance: In commercial bookings, the company expects solid growth on a relatively flat expiry base driven by continued strong commercial sales execution. In Productivity and Business Processes, the company expects revenue to grow between 9% and 11% in constant currency, or $19.9 and $20.2 billion. In Azure, the company expects Q4 revenue growth to be 30% to 31% in constant currency. The company also expect COGS between $19.6bn to $19.8bn, and operating expenses of $17.15bn to $17.25bn, and expect full-year FY24 operating margins to be up over 2 points year-over-year even with the cloud and AI investments.
  • Comment: Microsoft announced results exceeding expectations, with its cloud computing division Azure delivering a particularly strong quarter, fueled by increased demand for AI workloads. All segments of the company exhibited remarkable growth, surpassing the upper bounds of their previous guidance ranges. Microsoft has augmented its capital expenditures to secure Nvidia graphics processing units, vital for training and executing artificial intelligence models, as the current AI demand exceeds its capacity. Furthermore, the company appointed Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of the artificial intelligence lab DeepMind, to lead a new Microsoft AI group, underscoring its commitment to enhancing its AI capabilities. Additionally, Microsoft recently unveiled a five-year strategic collaboration with Coca-Cola aimed at accelerating cloud and generative AI initiatives. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $400 to $450. Positive Outlook.

微软(MSFT)

  • 24财年第三季营收：619.0亿美元，同比增幅17.1%，超预期10.1亿美元
  • 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：2.94美元，超预期0.11美元
  • 24财年指引：在商业预订方面，公司预计在持续强劲的商业销售执行推动下，在相对平稳的到期基数上实现稳健增长。在生产力和业务流程方面，公司预计收入按固定汇率计算将增长9%至11%，即199亿至202亿美元。微软预计，按固定汇率计算，第四季度Azure业务的营收将增长30%至31%。该公司还预计，销售成本将在196亿美元至198亿美元之间，运营支出将在171.5亿美元至172.5亿美元之间，即使考虑到云计算和人工智能投资，预计全年24财年运营利润率也将同比增长2个百分点以上。
  • 短评：微软公布了超出预期的业绩，其云计算部门Azure在人工智能工作负载需求增加的推动下，实现了特别强劲的季度业绩。公司的所有部门都表现出显著的增长，超过了之前指导范围的上限。微软增加了资本支出，以获得英伟达的图形处理单元，这对训练和执行人工智能模型至关重要，因为目前的人工智能需求超过了它的能力。此外，微软还任命人工智能实验室DeepMind的联合创始人穆斯塔法•苏莱曼(Mustafa Suleyman)领导一个新的微软人工智能团队，这突显出微软致力于增强其人工智能能力。此外，微软最近公布了与可口可乐的五年战略合作，旨在加速云和生成式人工智能计划。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：400美至450美元。积极前景。

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $80.54B, +15.4% YoY, beat estimates by $1.84B
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.889, beat estimates by $0.38
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided. Expect FY24 operating margin expansion to be relative to FY23 and quarterly capex to be roughly at or above 1Q24 level.
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Add a quarterly dividend of US$0.20 per share to its capital return program.
  • Share repurchase: Add a new US$70bn authorisation in share repurchases.
  • Comment: Alphabet’s revenue and earnings for the quarter surpassed expectations, driven by increased demand for cloud services and steady advertising spending. The company also announced its first-ever dividend distribution and a US$70bn stock buyback. The move aims to reward investors while the company invests heavily in data centers for generative AI. Following strong quarterly results, including beats in sales, profit, and advertising, its CEO highlighted the role of AI in enhancing search results. Despite a surge in capital expenditures, its CFO expects operating margins to improve in 2024. Google Cloud’s growth, particularly in generative AI tools, driven by demand for GCP infrastructure and Workspace productivity tools, has attracted venture-backed startups, although some of its AI offerings, like Gemini, have faced criticism for generating historically inaccurate images. The company aims to monetize AI through Ads, Cloud, and subscriptions. The company is focused on moderating expense growth while investing in technical talent and infrastructure to support future growth opportunities. Additionally, the announcement of quarterly dividend and share repurchase, demonstrates confidence in its capital return program. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Positive Outlook.

谷歌(GOOG)

  • 24财年第一季营收：805.4亿美元，同比增幅15.4%，超预期18.4亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：1.889美元，超预期0.38美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。预计24财年营业利润率将相对于23财年增长，季度资本支出将大致达到或高于24财年第一季度的水平。
  • 24财年第一季度股息：在资本回报计划中增加每股0.20美元的季度股息。
  • 股票回购：新增700亿美元的股票回购授权。
  • 短评：受云服务需求增加和广告支出稳定的推动，谷歌本季度的收入和收益超出预期。该公司还宣布了有史以来第一次派息和700亿美元的股票回购。此举旨在奖励投资者，同时该公司在生成式人工智能的数据中心上投入了大量资金。在销售、利润和广告等方面取得强劲的季度业绩后，该公司首席执行官强调了人工智能在增强搜索结果方面的作用。尽管资本支出激增，但其首席财务官预计营业利润率将在2024年有所改善。受对谷歌云平台基础设施和工作区生产力工具需求的推动，谷歌云的增长，尤其是在生成式人工智能工具方面的增长，吸引了风投支持的初创公司，尽管它的一些人工智能产品(如Gemini)因生成历史上不准确的图像而受到批评。该公司的目标是通过广告、云计算和订阅来实现人工智能的盈利。该公司专注于减缓费用增长，同时投资于技术人才和基础设施，以支持未来的增长机会。此外，宣布季度分红和股票回购，显示了对其资本回报计划的信心。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：170美至200美元。积极前景。

Intel Corp (INTC)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $12.7B, +8.5% YoY, miss estimates by $80M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.18, beat estimates by $0.04
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $12.5bn to $13.5bn; EPS of $(0.05); non-GAAP EPS of $0.10, vs revenue consensus of $13.59bn and EPS consensus of $0.26.
  • Comment: In the first quarter, Intel reported earnings of US$0.18 per share which surpassed analysts’ expectations and a revenue of US$12.7bn which missed expectations. The company’s new business structure, which highlighted the financial performance of its manufacturing operations, revealed widening losses due to spending on new plants. Intel’s foundry business, responsible for manufacturing, experienced a significant decline in sales, and the unit reported an operating loss in the first quarter. Intel expects Q2 sales of around US$13bn, lower than analysts’ estimates, and profit of US$0.10 per share, compared to a projected US$0.24. This outlook suggests that Intel’s efforts under its CEO to revitalize the company will require more time and investment. Despite being a former dominant chipmaker, Intel is trailing behind competitors like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in both revenue and technological advancements. Despite strong performance in PC-related chip sales and networking chips, Intel’s gross margin is expected to continue declining in the current period, reflecting challenges in its manufacturing operations. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $25 to $40. Negative Outlook.

英特尔(INTC)

  • 24财年第一季营收：127亿美元，同比增幅8.5%，逊预期8,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.18美元，超预期0.04美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计营收将达到125亿至135亿美元;每股盈利0.05美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为0.10美元，而收入预期为135.9亿美元，每股收益预期为0.26美元。
  • 短评：今年第一季度，英特尔公布每股盈利0.18美元，超过了分析师的预期，营收为127亿美元，低于预期。该公司的新业务结构突出了其制造业务的财务业绩，但由于新工厂的支出，亏损不断扩大。英特尔负责制造的代工业务销售额大幅下滑，该部门在第一季度出现了运营亏损。英特尔预计第二季度销售额约为130亿美元，低于分析师预期，每股利润为0.10美元，低于预期的0.24美元。这种前景表明，在首席执行官的领导下，英特尔重振公司的努力将需要更多的时间和投资。尽管曾经是一家占主导地位的芯片制造商，但英特尔在收入和技术进步方面都落后于英伟达和台积电等竞争对手。尽管在个人电脑相关芯片和网络芯片销售方面表现强劲，但英特尔的毛利率预计将在当前阶段继续下降，反映出其制造业务面临的挑战。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：25美至40美元。负面前景。

Western Digital Corp (WDC)

  • 3Q24 Revenue: $3.46B, +23.6% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
  • 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.63, beat estimates by $0.48
  • 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $3.60B to $3.80B and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.90 to $1.20.
  • Comment: Western Digital reported strong Q3 performance, surpassing expectations with revenue reaching US$3.5bn, non-GAAP gross margin at 29.3%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of US$0.63. The company’s diversified product portfolio and strategic structural changes contributed to improved profitability and resilience against business cycles. Notably, the growing demand for AI solutions across various end markets is driving increased storage demand, presenting long-term growth opportunities. The separation of flash and HDD businesses remains on track for completion in the next half. Western Digital saw revenue growth across major end markets, with cloud revenue up 29%, client revenue up 20%, and consumer revenue up 7% YoY. Flash revenue increased by 30% YoY, driven by higher bits and ASP. HDD revenue grew by 17% YoY, with increased exabyte shipments and average price per unit. Gross margin improved significantly due to better pricing and cost reduction efforts. Looking ahead, Western Digital anticipates continued growth in both HDD and flash segments, with a focus on profitability improvement and disciplined capital spending. As AI continues to drive storage solution opportunities, the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on future growth prospects and solidify its industry leadership. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $62 to $80. Positive Outlook.

西部数据(WDC)

  • 24财年第三季营收：34.6亿美元，同比增幅23.6%，超预期1.1亿美元
  • 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.63美元，超预期0.48美元
  • 24财年第四季指引：预计营收在36亿美元至38亿美元之间，Non-GAAP每股收益在0.90美元至1.20美元之间。
  • 短评：西部数据公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，超过预期，收入达到35亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率为29.3%，Non-GAAP每股收益为0.63美元。该公司多样化的产品组合和战略结构变化有助于提高盈利能力和抵御商业周期的能力。值得注意的是，各种终端市场对人工智能解决方案的需求不断增长，推动了存储需求的增长，带来了长期增长机会。闪存和硬盘业务的分离仍有望在下半年完成。西部数据在主要终端市场的收入均有所增长，云收入同比增长29%，客户端收入同比增长20%，消费者收入同比增长7%。受更高的比特和ASP的推动，闪存收入同比增长了30%。硬盘收入同比增长17%，出货量和平均单价均有所增长。由于更好的定价和降低成本的努力，毛利率显著提高。展望未来，西部数据预计硬盘和闪存市场将继续增长，重点是提高盈利能力和严格控制资本支出。随着人工智能继续推动存储解决方案的机会，该公司仍然处于有利地位，可以利用未来的增长前景，巩固其行业领导地位。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：62美至80美元。积极前景。

General Dynamics Corp. (GD)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $10.7B, +8.6% YoY, beat estimates by $400M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.88, miss estimates by $0.05
  • 2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided. Maintains previous expectations of increased deliveries and improved operating margins in its aerospace segment. Expect revenue growth and margin improvement across all business groups for FY24.
  • Comment: General Dynamics reported strong first-quarter revenue of US$10.7bn but missed earnings estimates with earnings per diluted share at US$2.88. The company delivered operating earnings of US$1,036mn, and net earnings of US$799mn, an increase from the previous year. Despite falling short of analysts’ expectations, attributed in part to delayed G700 deliveries due to FAA Certification received at the end of the quarter, the company’s Aerospace segment remains optimistic with plans to deliver 50 to 52 G700s this year. Combat Systems and Marine Systems also saw revenue growth and increased order activity, contributing to a solid backlog of US$93.7bn. Technologies reported steady growth, driven by strong order activity and a robust backlog of US$13.5bn. The company expects improvements in cash flow throughout the year, with a focus on managing capital expenditures and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Looking ahead, both businesses have robust pipelines, poised for continued growth alongside their expanding backlog. This trend is expected to drive sequential improvement in their marginal performance throughout the year. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $275 to $300. Positive Outlook.

通用动力(GD)

  • 24财年第一季营收：107亿美元，同比增幅8.6%，超预期4.0亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：2.88美元，超预期0.05美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：不提供指引。维持先前对航空航天业务交付量增加和营业利润率提高的预期。预计所有业务集团在24财年的收入增长和利润率改善。
  • 短评：通用动力公司公布了强劲的第一季度收入，达到107亿美元，但未达到盈利预期，摊薄后每股收益为2.88美元。该公司实现营业利润10.36亿美元，净利润7.99亿美元，较上年有所增长。尽管低于分析师的预期，部分原因是由于G700在本季度末获得美国联邦航空局认证而延迟交付，但该公司的航空航天部门仍保持乐观，计划今年交付50至52架G700。战斗系统和海洋系统也实现了收入增长和订单活动增加，为937亿美元的稳定积压做出了贡献。在强劲的订单活动和135亿美元的强劲积压的推动下，科技行业报告了稳定的增长。该公司预计全年现金流将有所改善，重点是管理资本支出和保持强劲的资产负债表。展望未来，这两家公司都拥有强大的渠道，在积压业务不断扩大的同时，还将保持持续增长。这一趋势预计将推动其全年边际业绩的连续改善。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：275美至300美元。积极前景。

Back To Top