KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 1 March 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Norweigian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 19.0, Target 21.0, Stop 18.0

American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL US)

  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 15.6, Target 17.0, Stop 14.9

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Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 1.58, Target 1.68, Stop 1.53

Rex International Holdings Ltd. (REXI SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.130, Target 0.140, Stop 0.125

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Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. (1585 HK)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 12.0, Target 13.0, Stop 11.5

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. (9863 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 27.0, Target 30.0, Stop 25.5

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Best Buy Co Inc (BBY) 

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $14.64B, -0.7% YoY, beat estimates by $80M 
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.72, beat estimates by $0.22 
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect FY25 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $5.75 to $6.20; Comparable sales growth is expected in the range of -3.0% to 0%. 
  • Comment: Exceeding expectations, the company’s results showcase robust operational excellence amid a challenging consumer electronics sales environment. Notably, the company expanded its paid membership base to 7mn as of last quarter. Management guides that the consumer electronics industry continues to face macro pressures as consumers will prioritize staples. There is a consumer propensity to spend on services. The company foresees another year of softer sales and is contemplating measures such as workforce reduction and cost-cutting across the business to enhance profitability. The company closed 24 stores in FY24, and it plans to close 10-25 stores in FY25. We might see an upside in demand for electronics in 2H24 when interest rates are expected to be lower. The continued low unemployment and rebounding housing market uphold the recovery in consumer confidence. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $75 to $85. Neutral Outlook.  

百思买(BBY)  

  • 24财年第四季营收：146.4亿美元，同比下跌0.7%，超预期8,000万美元 
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.72美元，超预期0.22美元 
  • 25财年指引：预计25财年Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为5.75美元至6.20美元；可比销售增长率预计在-3.0%至0%之间。 
  • 短评：该公司的业绩超出预期，在充满挑战的消费电子产品销售环境中展示了稳健的卓越运营。值得注意的是，截至上个季度，该公司的付费会员数量已增至700万。管理层表示，消费电子行业将继续面临宏观压力，因为消费者将优先考虑必需品。消费者倾向于在服务上花钱。该公司预计销售将再次疲软，并正在考虑采取裁员和削减成本等措施，以提高盈利能力。该公司在24财年关闭了24家门店，并计划在25财年关闭10-25家门店。我们可能会在下半年看到电子产品需求的上升，届时利率预计会更低。失业率持续低迷和房地产市场反弹，支撑着消费者信心的复苏。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：75美至85美元。中性前景。 

Zscaler Inc (ZS) 

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $525M, +35.4% YoY, beat estimates by $18.17M 
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.76, beat estimates by $0.18 
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Revenue of $534mn to $536mn; Non-GAAP income from operations of $98mn to $100mn; Non-GAAP net income per share of approximately $0.64 to $0.65. FY24 Guidance: Revenue of approximately $2.118bn to $2.122bn compared to a range of $2.09bn to $2.1bn previously; Calculated billings of $2.55bn to $2.57bn compared to a range of $2.52bn to $2.56 previously; Non-GAAP net income per share of $2.73 to $2.77 compared to $2.45 to $2.48 previously. 
  • Comment: The company delivered strong results and raised its guidance, emphasizing sustained high customer interest in the Zscaler Zero Trust Exchange Platform. Management notes a growing trend as more customers recognize the limitations of traditional firewall-based security, leading them to collaborate with the company for a transition to the Zero Trust architecture. Improved rate cut expectations are anticipated to boost long-term business confidence, prompting companies to embrace cybersecurity platforms. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $210 to $240. Neutral Outlook.  

Zscaler (ZS)  

  • 24财年第二季营收：5.25亿美元，同比增加35.4%，超预期1,817万美元 
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.76美元，超预期0.18美元 
  • 24财年第三季指引：营收5.34亿至5.36亿美元；Non-GAAP运营收入为9800万美元至1亿美元；Non-GAAP每股净利润约为0.64美元至0.65美元。24财年指引：营收约21.18亿至21.22亿美元，此前为20.9亿至21亿美元；计算出的账单为25.5亿美元至25.7亿美元，而此前的范围为25.2亿美元至25.56美元；Non-GAAP每股净收入为2.73美元至2.77美元，此前为2.45美元至2.48美元。 
  • 短评：该公司取得了强劲的业绩，并提高了指导方针，强调客户对Zscaler零信任交换平台的持续高兴趣。管理层注意到越来越多的客户认识到传统基于防火墙的安全性的局限性，这导致他们与公司合作过渡到零信任架构。降息预期的改善预计将提振长期商业信心，促使企业拥抱网络安全平台。24财年第四季度建议交易区间210美至240美元。中性前景。 

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL) 

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $22.32B, -10.9% YoY, beat estimates by $150M 
  • 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.20, beat estimates by $0.48 
  • FY25 Guidance: Project average annual growth of 3% to 4% and diluted EPS growth of at least 8% for FY2025 versus the current consensus of flat growth. The company also expects net income to adjusted free cash flow conversion of 100% or better over time and remains bullish on the coming PC refresh cycle as well. 
  • FY24 Dividend: The company announced a 20% increase in annual cash dividend to $1.78 per common share. 
  • Comment: The company presented robust results, attributing its success to the burgeoning momentum in artificial intelligence (AI). Management anticipates benefiting from the projected growth in unstructured data resulting from increased AI adoption, particularly in the early stages among enterprises and large corporate customers, thus positively impacting Dell’s storage business. Maintaining an optimistic outlook, the company foresees a return to growth in fiscal year 2025 and underscores its confidence by announcing a 20% increase in its annual dividend, reflecting faith in its ability to generate strong cash flow. Additionally, the company recently revealed a partnership with Subaru aimed at enhancing driver safety through AI and advanced data storage. As more companies embrace AI, the heightened demand for Dell’s products is expected to further escalate. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $140. Positive Outlook.  

戴尔(DELL)  

  • 24财年第四季营收：223.2亿美元，同比下跌10.9%，超预期1.5亿美元 
  • 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.2美元，超预期0.48美元 
  • 25财年指引：预计2025财年的平均年增长率为3%至4%，稀释每股收益增长率至少为8%，而目前的共识是持平增长。该公司还预计，随着时间的推移，净收入调整后的自由现金流转化率将达到100%或更高，并对即将到来的个人电脑更新周期持乐观态度。 
  • 24财年股息：该公司宣布将年度现金股息提高20%，至每股普通股1.78美元。 
  • 短评：该公司公布了强劲的业绩，并将其成功归因于人工智能(AI)的蓬勃发展势头。管理层预计，由于人工智能应用的增加，特别是在企业和大型企业客户的早期阶段，非结构化数据的预计增长将受益，从而对戴尔的存储业务产生积极影响。该公司保持乐观的前景，预计2025财年将恢复增长，并通过宣布将年度股息增加20%来强调其信心，这反映了对其产生强劲现金流的能力的信心。此外，该公司最近还公布了与斯巴鲁的合作伙伴关系，旨在通过人工智能和先进的数据存储来提高驾驶员的安全性。随着越来越多的公司接受人工智能，对戴尔产品的需求预计将进一步上升。25财年第一季度建议交易区间100美至140美元。积极前景。 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE) 

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $6.76B, -13.4% YoY, miss estimates by $340M 
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48, beat estimates by $0.03 
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $6.6bn to $7.0bn, GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.20 to $0.25 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.36 to $0.41. FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be flat to 2%, in constant currency, and GAAP operating profit growth to be in the range of 7% to 11% and non-GAAP operating profit growth to be flat to 2%. GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $1.81 and $1.91 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $1.82 and $1.92. Non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates exclude net after-tax adjustments of approximately $0.01 per diluted share. 
  • Comment: Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported a 13.5% decline in first-quarter revenue to US$6.76bn, missing estimates. Its CFO attributed the decline to the softening networking market and GPU deal timing. However, on an adjusted basis, HPE reported US$0.48 per share, above estimates of US$0.45 per share. The company’s annualized revenue run-rate increased by 42% to US$1.4bn in the reported quarter. The company forecasts second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates due to businesses reducing spending on technology solutions. This decision is influenced by economic uncertainty and high interest rates, leading clients to prioritize profitability and hesitate in committing to new contracts or technology initiatives. HPE expects revenue in the range of US$6.6bn to US$7bn for the second quarter, falling below analysts’ average estimate of US$7.11bn. The company HPE’s planned US$14bn deal for Juniper Networks is expected to double its networking market share. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $14 to $15. Neutral Outlook.  

慧与(HPE)  

  • 24财年第一季营收：67.6亿美元，同比跌幅13.4%，逊预期3,400万美元 
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.48美元，超预期0.03美元 
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计营收将在66亿美元至70亿美元之间，GAAP摊薄后每股净收益将在0.20美元至0.25美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益将在0.36美元至0.41美元之间。24财年指引：按固定汇率计算，预计收入增长将持平至2%，GAAP营业利润增长将在7%至11%之间，Non-GAAP营业利润增长将持平至2%。GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在1.81美元至1.91美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在1.82美元至1.92美元之间。Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估不包括约0.01美元的税后净摊薄每股调整。 
  • 短评：惠与第一季度收入下降13.5%，至67.6亿美元，低于预期。该公司首席财务官将业绩下滑归因于网络市场疲软和GPU交易时机。然而，在调整后的基础上，惠普报告每股0.48美元，高于每股0.45美元的预期。该公司在报告季度的年化收入增长率增长了42%，达到14亿美元。由于企业削减了在技术解决方案上的支出，该公司预计第二季度收入将低于华尔街的预期。这一决定受到经济不确定性和高利率的影响，导致客户优先考虑盈利能力，并在承诺新合同或技术计划时犹豫不决。惠普预计，第二季度营收将在66亿至70亿美元之间，低于分析师71.1亿美元的平均预期。惠与计划以140亿美元收购瞻博网络(Juniper Networks)，预计将使其网络市场份额翻一番。24财年第二季度建议交易区间14美至15美元。中性前景。 

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