KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 11 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (BABA US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 98, Target 108, Stop 93

The Walt Disney Co. (DIS US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 91, Target 99, Stop 87

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Dyna-Mac Holdings Ltd. (DMHL SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level. 
  • Long – Entry 0.430, Target 0.460 Stop 0.415

Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. 
  • RSI is about to turn positive, and MACD is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 7.30 Target 7.90, Stop 7.00

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China Coal Energy Co Ltd (1898 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume. 
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 5.68, Target 6.18, Stop 5.43

Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (1171 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a spike in volume. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 11.90, Target 13.00, Stop 11.35

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $32.29B, +14.0% YoY, beat estimates by $1.08B.
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.40, beat estimates by $0.39.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided. The management saw “strong demand” in its cloud business for training artificial intelligence models and related services, and highlighted plans to invest further in AI development and business opportunities.
  • Comment: Alibaba Group Holding has reported a 14% growth in revenue, its strongest quarterly revenue growth in nearly two years, attributing the performance to a mid-year shopping festival that attracted consumers seeking bargains amid a challenging economic environment. Alibaba managed this growth while cutting costs by 6% and reducing its workforce by 3% (over 6,500 people). Key divisions such as the cloud and overseas arms also showed positive trends, while the core domestic commerce division saw its first sales rise in over a year. Despite regulatory concerns easing, challenges persist due to China’s economic struggles and competition from smaller rivals like PDD Holdings and Douyin. Furthermore, with China currently facing deflation, there is most likely going to be a decline in consumer spending in the coming quarter unless the Chinese government releases policies that will better facilitate spending. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $110. Neutral Outlook.

阿里巴巴 (BABA)

  • 24财年第一季营收：322.9亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，超预期10.8亿美元 
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：2.40美元，超预期0.39美元  
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。管理层认为其云业务对训练人工智能模型和相关服务的“强劲需求”，并强调计划进一步投资于人工智能开发和商业机会。

短评：阿里巴巴集团公布营收增长14%，为近两年来最强劲的季度营收增长。阿里巴巴将这一业绩归功于年中购物节，在充满挑战的经济环境下，这个节日吸引了寻求便宜货的消费者。阿里巴巴在实现这一增长的同时，削减了6%的成本，裁员3%（超过6500人）。云计算和海外业务等关键部门也呈现出积极趋势，而核心的国内商务部门一年多来首次出现销售额增长。尽管监管方面的担忧有所缓解，但由于中国的经济困境以及来自拼多多和抖音等规模较小的竞争对手的竞争，挑战依然存在。此外，由于中国目前面临通货紧缩，除非中国政府出台政策，更好地促进消费，否则下一季度消费者支出很可能会下降。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：90美元至110美元。中性前

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