Technical Analysis – 7 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 55.0, Target 59.0, Stop 53.0

Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST US)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA and 20dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 56.0, Target 59.0, Stop 54.5

Samudera Shipping Line Ltd. (SAMU SP)

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Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.71, Target 0.77, Stop 0.68

The Hour Glass Ltd. (HG SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.62, Target 1.74, Stop 1.56

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 16.30, Target 17.28, Stop 15.81

Trip.com Group Ltd (9961 HK)

Shares closed at a high since September 2023, above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 298, Target 320, Stop 287

Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

4Q23 Revenue: $17.1B, +3.0% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.23, beat estimates by $0.48
FY24 Guidance: Little revenue growth in 2024, raised guidance for profitability by 100 basis points and boosted its free-cash-flow target range. It expects to generate between $5bn and $10bn from its machinery, energy, and transportation unit, up from its previous guidance range of $4bn to $8bn.
Comment: Caterpillar Inc. missed revenue estimates but reported higher Q4 sales in its energy and transportation business, surpassing analysts’ profit expectations. The company sees a positive outlook for FY24, with shrinking dealer inventories suggesting increased customer equipment purchases. Caterpillar’s Q4 dealer inventories dropped by about $900mn, indicating stable margins ahead. Despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown, Caterpillar’s sales in energy and transportation industries exceeded expectations, countering slower sales in construction and resources. The company expects its FY24 adjusted operating profit margin to be in the top half of its target range and plans to increase prices to offset raw material costs. Caterpillar also indicated that machine inventories at dealerships are expected to remain stable.1Q24 recommended trading range: $310 to $350. Neutral Outlook.

卡特彼勒(CAT)

23财年第四季营收：17.1亿美元, 同比增幅3.0%，逊预期3,000万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.23美元，超预期0.48美元
24财年指引：2024年收入几乎没有增长，将盈利指引提高了100个基点，并提高了自由现金流目标范围。该公司预计，其机械、能源和运输部门将产生50亿至100亿美元的收入，高于此前40亿至80亿美元的指导区间。
短评：卡特彼勒公司公布第四季度能源和运输业务销售额高于预期，超出了分析师的利润预期。该公司认为24财年前景乐观，经销商库存减少表明客户设备采购增加。卡特彼勒第四季度的经销商库存下降了约9亿美元，表明未来利润率稳定。尽管担心经济可能放缓，但卡特彼勒在能源和运输行业的销售超出预期，抵消了建筑和资源行业销售放缓的影响。该公司预计其24财年调整后的营业利润率将处于目标范围的上半部分，并计划提高价格以抵消原材料成本。卡特彼勒还表示，预计经销商的机器库存将保持稳定。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：310美至350美元。积极前景。

McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

4Q23 Revenue: $6.41B, +8.1% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.95, beat estimates by $0.12
FY24 Guidance: No revenue guidance. Expect operating margin to be in the mid to high 40% range and expect more than 1,600 net restaurant additions.
Dividend: Announced an 8% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.63/share
Comment: McDonald’s reported its first quarterly sales miss in almost four years, attributing it to weak sales growth in its international business division, particularly impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. The company faced protests and boycotts over its perceived pro-Israeli stance in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The war significantly affected its performance in various overseas markets, with the most pronounced impact in the Middle East. Comparable sales in international markets fell below estimates, and the company anticipates ongoing challenges until the situation improves. Global same-store sales rose 3.4% in the quarter, missing estimates and marking the slowest sales growth in about three years. Additionally, the company noticed that consumer spending in China remained weak but saw improvements in Q4 due to ongoing promotions. McDonald’s US business also showed signs of weakness, but it reported an adjusted per-share profit of $2.95, beating estimates. Despite the challenges, McDonald’s forecasts an FY24 operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range and plans over 1,600 net restaurant additions this year. Investors should remain cautious about the recovery in the Middle East, China and other affected markets on earnings durability. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $270 to $290. Neutral Outlook.

麦当劳(MCD)

23财年第四季营收：64.1亿美元, 同比增幅8.1%，逊预期4,000万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.95美元，超预期0.12美元
24财年指引：不提供营收指引。预计营业利润率将在40%左右，预计净新增餐厅将超过1600家。
股息：宣布季度股息增加8%至每股1.63美元
短评：麦当劳报告称，近四年来首次出现季度销售下滑，原因是其国际业务部门的销售增长疲弱，尤其是受到中东冲突的影响。该公司因在以色列和哈马斯冲突中亲以色列的立场而面临抗议和抵制。战争严重影响了其在各个海外市场的表现，中东地区的影响最为明显。国际市场的可比销售额低于预期，该公司预计，在情况好转之前，挑战仍在继续。第三季度全球同店销售额增长3.4%，低于预期，是三年来最慢的增长。此外，该公司注意到，中国的消费者支出仍然疲软，但由于持续的促销活动，第四季度有所改善。麦当劳的美国业务也显示出疲软的迹象，但该公司公布的调整后每股利润为2.95美元，超出预期。尽管面临诸多挑战，但麦当劳预计其24财年的营业利润率将在40%左右，并计划今年净增加1600多家餐厅。投资者应该对中东、中国和其他受盈利持久性影响的市场的复苏保持谨慎。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：270美至290美元。中性前景。

Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)

2Q24 Revenue: $4.28B, -7.4% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.88 beat estimates by $0.32
3Q24 Guidance: Net sales are forecasted to increase between 3% and 5% YoY. Organic net sales to increase between 4% to 6%. Reported diluted net earnings per share are projected to be between $0.35 and $0.46. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share are expected to range between -18% to 3% on a constant currency basis. FY24 Guidance: Net sales are forecasted to range between -1% to 1% YoY. Adjusted profit per share to be between $2.08 and $2.23, vs previous $2.17 to $2.42.
Comment: Estée Lauder beat both revenue and earnings estimates in Q2, however, its net sales fell 7% YoY. Its organic net sales in the Asia-Pacific region fell 7% while overall margins declined by 60 basis points. Organic net sales in the Americas fell 1% compared to 6% growth in Q1. Following these declines, the company plans to cut 3-5% of its workforce as part of an expanded restructuring program aimed at reviving profit margins, following reduced spending by Chinese consumers on luxury products. The company expects to drive incremental operating profit in FY25 and FY26 between $1.1bn and $1.4bn, compared to the earlier estimate of $800mn to $1bn. The restructuring program is set to begin in Q3 and is expected to incur charges of $500mn to $700mn before taxes. Estée Lauder has lowered its annual profit forecast due to slower recovery, especially in China, where youth unemployment and a property crisis have impacted consumption. Increased competition in the Chinese market, marked by emerging local brands offering quality at lower prices, further challenges Estée Lauder. Despite headwinds, the company envisions double-digit organic sales growth in the second half of the year. Furthermore, with the restructuring initiative, the expected rise in profit margins could attract investors and drive the share price upward. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $145 to $160. Positive Outlook.

雅诗兰黛(EL)

24财年第二季营收：42.8亿美元, 同比跌幅7.4%，超预期4,000万美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.88美元，超预期0.32美元
24财年第三指引：净销售额预计将同比增长3%至5%。有机净销售额将增长4%至6%。报告的摊薄后每股净收益预计在0.35美元至0.46美元之间。按固定汇率计算，调整后的摊薄每股净收益预计在-18%至3%之间。24财年指引：净销售额预计将在-1%至1%之间。调整后的每股利润将在2.08美元至2.23美元之间，而之前的每股利润为2.17美元至2.42美元。
短评：雅诗兰黛第二季度的收入和盈利都超过了预期，然而，其净销售额同比下降了7%。该公司在亚太地区的有机净销售额下降了7%，整体利润率下降了60个基点。与第一季度6%的增长相比，美洲地区的有机净销售额下降了1%。由于中国消费者在奢侈品上的支出减少，该公司计划裁员3-5%，作为扩大重组计划的一部分，旨在提高利润率。该公司预计，在25财年和26财年，营业利润将增长11亿至14亿美元，而此前的估计为8亿至10亿美元。重组计划将于第三季度开始，预计将产生5亿至7亿美元的税前费用。由于经济复苏放缓，尤其是在中国，青年失业和房地产危机影响了消费，雅诗兰黛下调了年度利润预期。中国市场竞争加剧，新兴本土品牌以更低的价格提供优质产品，这进一步挑战了雅诗兰黛。尽管存在不利因素，但该公司预计今年下半年有机销售额将实现两位数的增长。此外，随着重组计划的实施，预期利润率的上升可能会吸引投资者，并推动股价上涨。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：145美至160美元。中性前景。

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)

4Q23 Revenue: $608.35M, +19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $5.55M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.08, in line with estimates
1Q24 Guidance: Revenue of between $612mn – $616mn; Adjusted Income from operations of $196mn – $200mn. FY2024 Outlook: Revenue of between $2.652bn – $2.668bn; US commercial revenue above $640mn, representing a growth rate of at least 40%; Adjusted income from operations of $834mn – $850mn; Adjusted FCF of $800mn – $1bn.
Comment: The company reported revenue that topped expectations, with the company continuing to see strong unrelentless demand for large language models. The company saw a huge surge in customers in the commercial market, with the company’s total commercial contract value rising 107% YoY to $343mn, offsetting the slowdown in growth in the government market. As the company saw more demand from the commercial market, they have also their focus, targeting generative AI applications in health care, energy, and manufacturing, catering to the commercial market. Demand for AI looks to remain strong, as more companies hop onto the AI bandwagon, following the suit of major companies such as Google and Microsoft. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $18 to $24. Positive Outlook.

Palantir (PLTR)

23财年第四季营收：6.0835亿美元, 同比增幅19.6%，超预期555万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.08美元，符合预期
24财年第一指引：收入在6.12亿美元至6.16亿美元之间; 调整后的营业收入为1.96亿至2亿美元。2024财年展望: 收入26.52亿至26.68亿美元；美国商业收入在6.4亿美元以上，增长率至少为40%；调整后的营业收入为8.34亿至8.5亿美元；调整后的自由现金流为8亿至10亿美元。
短评：该公司公布的收入超过预期，该公司继续看到对大型语言模型的强劲需求。该公司在商业市场的客户激增，公司的商业合同总价值同比增长107%，达到3.43亿美元，抵消了政府市场增长放缓的影响。随着该公司看到商业市场的需求越来越大，他们也有了自己的重点，瞄准了医疗保健、能源和制造业的生成式人工智能应用，以迎合商业市场。随着越来越多的公司追随谷歌和微软等大公司的脚步，对人工智能的需求似乎仍将保持强劲。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：18美至24美元。积极前景。

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)

4Q23 Revenue: $3.42B, +3.3% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.71 beat estimates by $0.07
1Q24 Guidance: Expected total revenue: $3,025M-$3,225M, vs. consensus of $3.16B; Non-GAAP EPS of $2.97-$3.38, vs. consensus of $3.16.
Comment: The company posted a solid set of results, reflecting its strong execution and consistent gross margin. The company is navigating a soft landing by managing what is in their control, especially limiting over shipment of products to customers, Coupled with uncertain macroeconomic conditions, many companies see weakness in the automotive market in the near term, after a surging growth in 2023. The electronic market also remains weak, especially in the Chinese market as China struggles with consumption levels. NXP Semiconductors provided a guidance range that seems relatively mixed, with the midpoint of its expected earnings just slightly ahead of market expectation of $3.16. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $210 to $250. Neutral Outlook.

恩智浦 (NXPI)

23财年第四季营收：34.2亿美元, 同比增幅3.3%，超预期2,000万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.71美元，超预期0.07美元
24财年第一指引：预计总收入：30.25亿至32.25亿美元，预期为31.6亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为2.97至3.38美元，市场预期为3.16美元。
短评：该公司公布了一系列稳健的业绩，反映出其强大的执行力和稳定的毛利率。该公司正在通过控制自己的控制范围，特别是限制向客户过度发货来实现软着陆，再加上宏观经济形势不确定，许多公司认为，在2023年大幅增长之后，汽车市场短期内将出现疲软。电子市场也依然疲软，特别是在中国市场，因为中国正在努力提高消费水平。恩智浦半导体提供的业绩指导区间似乎相对喜忧参半，其预期盈利中值略高于3.16美元的市场预期。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：210美至250美元。中性前景。