Technical Analysis – 31 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Century Aluminium Co. (CENX US)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 6.60, Target 7.40, Stop 6.20

Alcoa Corp. (AA US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 25.0, Target 27.0, Stop 24.0

China Aviation Oil (CAO SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 0.790, Target 0.890 Stop 0.740

First Resources Ltd. (FR SP)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with constructivevolume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.50 Target 1.60 Stop 1.55

Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc (2269 HK)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA touched the 200dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 49.0, Target 52.0, Stop 47.5

Genscript Biotech Corp (1548 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 21.3, Target 23.3, Stop 20.3

McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

3Q23 Revenue: $6.69B, +14.0% YoY (11% YoY in constant currencies), beat estimates by $140M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.19, beat estimates by $0.20
FY23 Guidance: Expect adjusted operating margin to be about 47%, including an expected property gain in other operating income in the fourth quarter, and G&A of about 2.2% of system-wide sales. Foreign currency translation positively impacted third quarter results by about $0.08 per share with a slight tailwind expected.
Comment: McDonald’s posted a strong set of results, boosted by higher menu prices, especially in its U.S. market. Although menu prices are higher in certain regions, the management highlighted that the burger chain continues to outperform its competitors in the majority of its largest markets in terms of how consumers perceive the value and affordability of their offerings. The company’s sales also benefited from new marketing campaigns, as well as growing digital and delivery orders, with systemwide digital sales making up 40% of total sales. With persisting macroeconomic uncertainties, consumers are bound to continue to turn towards more affordable meals such as Mcdonalds. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $245to $275. Positive Outlook.

麦当劳 (MCD)

23财年第三季营收：66.9亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，超预期1.4亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.19美元，超预期0.20美元
23财年指引：预计调整后的营业利润率约为47%，其中包括第四季度其他营业收入中预计的房地产收益，以及占整个系统销售额的2.2%左右的一般费用支出。外币折算对第三季度业绩产生了积极影响，每股收益约为0.08美元，预计将略有上升
短评：麦当劳公布了一系列强劲的业绩，这得益于菜单价格的上涨，尤其是在美国市场。尽管某些地区的菜单价格较高，但管理层强调，就消费者对其产品的价值和可负担性的看法而言，这家汉堡连锁店在其大多数最大的市场中继续优于其竞争对手。该公司的销售也受益于新的营销活动，以及不断增长的数字和配送订单，整个系统的数字销售额占总销售额的40%。由于宏观经济的不确定性持续存在，消费者必然会继续转向更实惠的食品，如麦当劳。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：245美元至275美元。积极前景。

Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

1Q24 Revenue: $2.75B, -26.5% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$1.76, beat estimates by $0.14
2Q24 Guidance: Expect fiscal second quarter 2024 revenue to be in the range of $2.85bn to $3.05bn. Expect Non-GAAP EPS in the range of -$1.35 to -$1.05, which includes $110mn to $130mn of underutilization-related charges in Flash and HDD.
Comment: The company’s performance surpassed expectations as a result of its efforts to enhance business agility and create unique and innovative products spanning various end-markets. These efforts have led to consistent margin improvements in both flash and HDD businesses. The management highlights that the consumer and client end markets are maintaining strong performance, and they anticipate growth in their cloud end market moving forward. The company also recently announced that it would be separating its flash memory business, which has been contending with oversupply issues after discussions regarding a potential merger with Japan’s Kioxia hit a roadblock. However, the company also unveiled a new capital raising initiative aimed at refinancing a portion of its debt, with a plan to raise capital through the sale of $1.3bn worth of convertible bonds due 2028. The demand for flash chips has also declined after the pandemic, resulting in an oversupply situation in the market and intensifying the need for chipmakers to pursue consolidation. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $35 to $45. Neutral Outlook.

西部数据 (WDC)

24财年第一季营收：27.5亿美元, 同比增跌幅26.5%，超预期9,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：1.76美元，超预期0.14美元
24财年第二季指引：预计营收将在28.5亿美元至30.5亿美元之间。预计Non-GAAP每股亏损将在1.05美元至1.35美元之间，其中包括1.1亿美元至1.3亿美元的闪存和硬盘未充分利用相关费用。
短评：该公司的业绩超出了预期，因为它努力提高业务敏捷性，并创造了跨越各种终端市场的独特和创新产品。这些努力使闪存和硬盘业务的利润率持续提高。管理层强调，消费者和客户端市场保持强劲表现，他们预计云端市场将继续增长。该公司最近还宣布，将剥离其闪存业务。在与日本Kioxia潜在合并的讨论遭遇阻碍后，该业务一直面临供过于求的问题。不过，该公司还公布了一项新的融资计划，旨在为部分债务再融资，计划通过出售2028年到期的价值13亿美元的可转换债券来筹集资金。大流行之后，闪存芯片的需求也有所下降，导致市场出现供过于求的局面，加剧了芯片制造商寻求整合的必要性。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：35美元至455美元。中性前景。

ON Semiconductor (ON)

3Q23 Revenue: $2.18B, -0.9% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.39, beat estimates by $0.05
4Q23 Guidance: GAAP Revenue of $1,950 million to $2,050 million vs. the consensus of $2.18 billion; GAAP Diluted Earnings Per Share of $1.10 to $1.24; Non-GAAP Diluted Earnings Per Share of $1.13 to $1.27 vs. the consensus of $1.37.
Comment: Though the company delivered better-than-expected 3Q23 earnings, the soft demand for EV will bring challenges for its 4Q23 businesses. The company has completed the expansion of the world’s largest silicon carbide fab with an annual capacity of 1mn 200mm silicon carbide in Bucheon. A client’s reduction in demand will impact its $1bn target of silicon carbide shipments. The overall global weak demand for EVs and macro uncertainties will continue throughout the rest of 2023. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $55 to $70. Negative Outlook.

安森美半导体 (ON)

23财年第三季营收：21.8亿美元, 同比跌幅0.9%，超预期3,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.99美元，超预期0.05美元
23财年第四季指引：GAAP营收为19.5亿至20.5亿美元，市场预期为21.8亿美元；GAAP摊薄后每股收益1.10美元至1.24美元；Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益为1.13美元至1.27美元，而市场预期为1.37美元。
短评：尽管该公司第三季度的盈利好于预期，但电动汽车需求疲软将给其第四季度业务带来挑战。该公司在富川完成了年产1百万个200毫米碳化硅的世界最大的碳化硅工厂的扩建工程。客户需求的减少将影响其10亿美元碳化硅出货量目标。全球对电动汽车的整体需求疲软和宏观不确定性将在2023年剩余时间内持续下去。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：55美元至70美元。负面前景。

Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF)

1Q24 Revenue: $197.4M, +4.2% YoY, miss estimates by $0.35M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.99 miss estimates by $0.19
2Q24 Guidance: Targets revenue from continuing operations in a range of $192mn to $222mn vs $207.04mn consensus. GAAP net loss from continuing operations is targeted at $131mn to $153mn, or $1.04 to $1.22 per diluted share. Non-GAAP net loss from continuing operations is targeted to be in a range of $71mn to $88mn, or $0.56 to $0.70 per diluted share vs. -$0.69 consensus
Comment: The company forecasted a slimmer-than-expected loss for the current quarter. The company posted a net loss of $402.7mn for 1Q24, compared with a loss of $26.2mn a year ago. In order to accommodate anticipated growth, Wolfspeed is incurring substantial initial costs associated with the construction or expansion of facilities that have not yet commenced revenue-generating production as part of its efforts to expand its production capacity. Management also mentions that with the market opportunity for silicon carbide standing at $6.0bn, it validates the company’s strategy to capitalize on the immense opportunities at hand, and the significant opportunity in the future. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $20 to $35. Neutral Outlook.

Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF)

24财年第一季营收：1.974亿美元, 同比增幅4.2%，逊预期35万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.99美元，逊预期0.19美元
24财年第二季指引：持续经营业务收入目标在1.92亿至2.22亿美元之间，而预期为20704万美元。GAAP持续经营业务净亏损目标为1.31亿美元至1.53亿美元，摊薄后每股亏损1.04美元至1.22美元。持续经营业务的Non-GAAP净亏损目标在7,100万美元至8,800万美元之间，即摊薄每股0.56美元至0.70美元，而市场预期为亏损0.69美元
短评：该公司预计本季度的亏损将低于预期。该公司公布第一季度净亏损4.027亿美元，而去年同期为亏损2620万美元。为了适应预期的增长，Wolfspeed正在承担大量的初始成本，这些成本与尚未开始创收生产的设施的建设或扩建有关，这是其扩大生产能力努力的一部分。管理层还提到，碳化硅的市场机会高达60亿美元，这证实了公司利用当前巨大机遇和未来重大机遇的战略。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：20美元至35美元。中性前景。

XPO Inc. (XPO)

3Q23 Revenue: $1.98B, +1.7% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.88, beat estimate of $0.24
FY23 Guidance: Expect that gross CapEx will be in the range of $675mn to $725mn, given the opportunities to invest in network capacity to drive long-term growth. Projected interest expense of $170mn to $175mn, pension income of $15mn to $20mn, and an effective tax rate of 23% to 24%. Its assumption for diluted share count remains unchanged at 118mn shares.
Comment: The company reported a better-than-expected results amid a weak economy, showcasing signs of recovery in demand. The company’s LTL (less-than-truckload)business contributed most to the YoY gain with shipments per day rising 7.8% and tonnage per day up 3.1%. Pricing, excluding fuel impacts, also rose 8.9% YoY, driving up revenue for the company. While sentiments for the following quarter still remain mixed, but investors are positive about 2024. The recent bankruptcy and liquidation of its competitor company, Yellow, also shifted demand over to XPO, driving volume and hence revenue for the company. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $68 to $90 Positive Outlook.

XPO Inc. (XPO)

23财年第三季营收：19.8亿美元, 同比增幅1.7%，超预期5,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.88美元，超预期0.24美元
23财年指引：考虑到投资网络容量以推动长期增长的机会，预计总资本支出将在6.75亿至7.25亿美元之间。预计利息支出为1.7亿至1.75亿美元，养老金收入为1,500万至2,000万美元，有效税率为23%至24%。该公司对稀释后股票数量的假设保持不变，仍为1.18亿股。
短评：在经济疲软的情况下，该公司公布了好于预期的业绩，显示出需求复苏的迹象。该公司的低卡车装载业务对同比增长贡献最大，日发货量增长7.8%，日吨位增长3.1%。不包括燃油影响的定价也同比上涨8.9%，推高了该公司的收入。尽管投资者对接下来一个季度的情绪仍然喜忧参半，但他们对2024年持乐观态度。其竞争对手Yellow公司最近的破产和清算也将需求转移到XPO，从而推动了XPO的销量和收入。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：68美元至80美元。积极前景。

JinkoSolar Holdings Co. Ltd. (JKS)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.36B, +63.0% YoY, beat estimates by $170M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.53
FY23 Guidance: Expects module shipments to be approximately 23.0 GW for the 4Q2023 and are confident that our full-year module shipments will exceed management’s guidance of 70 to 75 GW, with N-type modules accounting for approximately 60%. Expect annual production capacity for mono wafers, solar cells and solar modules to reach 85.0 GW, 90.0 GW and 110.0 GW, respectively, by the end of 2023, with N-type capacity accounting for over 75%.
Comment: The company reported a stronger-than-expected revenue, supported by a surge in demand for its solar products. The company remains positive that it will be able to exceed shipment guidance for 2023. Consumers of Jinko Solar’s products have proven to be resilient amidst the economic uncertainties that were expected to impact demand. For the first nine months of 2023, newly-added installations of PV in China reached 128.9 GW, nearly 50% more than full-year installations in 2022, showcasing the strength in the demand for solar products. Price declines within the supply chain in China have also increased demand for the company’s products. Furthermore, the company’s lower revenue growth to earnings signals that the firm has been able to reduce costs and improve its profit margin overall. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $25 to $35. Positive Outlook.

晶科能源 (JKS)

23财年第三季营收：43.6亿美元, 同比增幅63.0%，超预期1.7亿美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：2.53美元
23财年第四季度指引：预计第四季度模块出货量约为23.0吉瓦，并有信心我们的全年模块出货量将超过管理层的70至75吉瓦的指导，其中N型模块约占60%。预计到2023年底，单晶硅片、太阳能电池和太阳能组件的年产能将分别达到85.0 GW、90.0 GW和110.0 GW，其中N型产能占比超过75%。

短评：受太阳能产品需求激增的推动，该公司公布了强于预期的营收。该公司仍然乐观地认为，它将能够超过2023年的出货量指导。事实证明，在预计会影响需求的经济不确定性中，晶科能源产品的消费者是有弹性的。2023年前9个月，中国新增光伏装机量达到128.9吉瓦，比2022年全年装机量高出近50%，显示出对太阳能产品的强劲需求。中国供应链的价格下降也增加了对该公司产品的需求。此外，该公司较低的收入增长率表明，该公司已经能够降低成本，提高整体利润率。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：25美元至35美元。积极前景。