KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 3 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Overstock.com, Inc. (OSTK US)

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 37.5, Target 40.5, Stop 36.0

Kroger Co. (KR US)

  • Shares closed at a high since May 23.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 48.7, Target 52.7, Stop 46.7

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Acesian Partners Ltd (ACP SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an incline in volume. 
  • RSI is constructive and MACD just turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 0.056, Target 0.060 Stop 0.054

Bumitama Agri Ltd (BAL SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with high volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA. 
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
  • Long – Entry 0.575 Target 0.600, Stop 0.562

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China International Marine Containers. (2039 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.8, Target 5.2, Stop 4.6

Haitian International Holdings Ltd. (1882 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 19.4, Target 21.0, Stop 18.6

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PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $7.3B, +7.4% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.16, in-line with estimates
  • FY23 Guidance: GAAP earnings per diluted share expected to be ~$3.49, compared to $2.09 in FY22; Reiterating Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share, expected to grow ~20% to ~$4.95, compared to $4.13 in FY22 
  • Comment: The company attributed its less than expected operating margin to its credit portfolio, where PayPal generated less revenue than it had anticipated and increased its loss provisions. PayPal expects continued pressure on transaction-margin performance in the third quarter before conditions improve in the fourth quarter. Paypal would still be able to reap the benefits of the increasing popularity of e-commerce due to convenience, and with consumer confidence surging to its highest since October 2021 in July, online transaction demand looks to be positive in the near term. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $68 to $82. Neutral Outlook.

 贝宝控股 (PYPL)

  • 23财年第二季营收：73.0亿美元, 同比增长7.4%，超预期3,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.16美元，符合预期  
  • 23财年指引：GAAP摊薄后每股收益预计约为3.49美元，而22财年为2.09美元；重申Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益，预计增长20%至4.95美元，而22财年为4.13美元。
  • 短评：虽然该公司上调了2023财年的指引，但该公司对下一季度的指引较弱，低于分析师的预期。投资者认为，上调全年预期是由于23年第二季度的盈利表现好于预期，并认为该公司在今年剩余时间内不会“有机增长”。然而，近几个月来，一些国家的旅游水平与大流行前类似，尽管面临持续通货膨胀和高利率等挑战，但预计2023年下半年的旅游水平将进一步上升。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：68美元至82美元。中性前景。

Shopify Inc (SHOP) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.69B, +31.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.14, beat estimates by $0.09
  • 3Q23 Guidance: forecast revenue growing at a low-twenties percentage rate on a YoY basis. Gross margin percentage is expected at two to three percentage points higher than the 2Q23 gross margin of 49.3%.
  • Comment: The company saw a strong result after cutting costs and also selling its logistics business away last quarter, reflecting greater speed and agility, shipping more products at a faster clip.   The company’s growth in gross merchandise value was also faster than for the overall e-commerce market.   With the increasing popularity of e-commerce due to convenience, and with consumer confidence surging to its highest since October 2021 in July, the company would be able to ride on these catalysts to drive sales volume. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $60 to $80. Positive Outlook.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • 23财年第二季营收：16.9亿美元, 同比增幅31.0%，超预期7,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.14美元，超预期0.09美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计收入的年增长率为20%左右。预计毛利率将比第二季度的49.3%高出2至3个百分点。
  • 短评：在削减成本并出售其物流业务后，该公司上季度取得了强劲的业绩，反映出更快的速度和灵活性，以更快的速度运送更多的产品。该公司的总商品价值增长也快于整个电子商务市场。随着电子商务因便利性而日益普及，以及7月份消费者信心飙升至2021年10月以来的最高水平，该公司将能够利用这些催化剂来推动销量。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：60美元至80美元。积极前景。

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) 

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $8.44B, -22.7% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.87, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Total revenue of $8.1B-$8.9B; QCT Revenue of $6.9B-$7.5B; QTL Revenue of $1.15B-$1.35B; Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $1.80-$2.00.
  • Comment: Qualcomm forecasts lower-than-expected Q4 sales due to weak consumer spending on smartphones and a slowdown in global economic growth. The company also expects no further sales to Huawei as it lacks a license to sell 5G chips to the Chinese telecom giant. Qualcomm warns of possible job cuts and restructuring charges. However, the automotive sector saw growth as Qualcomm diversifies beyond smartphone chips. The overall smartphone industry is experiencing a slowdown, impacting Qualcomm’s handset units and processor sales. We anticipate seeing the effects of its further cost-cutting measures, automotive sector growth and AI strategy in FY24. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $115 to $125. Neutral Outlook.

高通 (QCOM) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：84.4亿美元, 同比跌幅22.7%，逊预期7,000万美元  
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.87美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：总营收为81亿至89亿美元；CDMA技术业务收入为69亿至75亿美元；技术授权收入为11.5亿至13.5亿美元；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益1.80至2.00美元。
  • 短评：高通预计，由于消费者对智能手机的支出疲软以及全球经济增长放缓，第四季度的销售额将低于预期。该公司还预计不会再向华为销售5G芯片，因为它没有向这家中国电信巨头销售5G芯片的许可证。高通对可能的裁员和重组费用发出警告。然而，随着高通在智能手机芯片以外的业务多元化，汽车行业出现了增长。整个智能手机行业正在经历放缓，影响了高通的手机部门和处理器销售。我们预计将在24财年看到其进一步削减成本措施、汽车行业增长和人工智能战略的影响。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：115美元至125美元。中性前景。

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $6.73B, -37% YoY, miss estimates by $200M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.68, miss estimates by $0.08
  • FY23 Guidance: raise its full-year production guidance by 1% to between 1.19M boepd and 1.24M boepd, from a midpoint of 1.195M previously.
  • Comment: Occidental Petroleum raised its full-year production forecast by 1% but missed Q2 profit expectations due to declining oil and gas prices. The average realised price for oil fell 32%, while gas prices dropped 78% for the April-June quarter. Despite the challenging market conditions, production increased by 6% to 1.2M barrels of oil equivalent per day. Occidental also decided to exit future exploration in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, resulting in a $164M after-tax impairment charge. With oil and gas inventories declining in the US, it may help to support the commodities prices and Occidental will be able to benefit from its increased production. Oil prices has also shown signs of recovery for the start of the 3Q23. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $58 to $65. Neutral Outlook.

西方石油 (OXY) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：67.3亿美元, 同比跌幅37.0%，逊预期2.0亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.68美元，逊预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：将其全年产量指引从之前的119.5万桶/天上调1%至119万桶/天至124万桶/天区间。
  • 短评：公司将其全年产量预测上调了1%，但由于石油和天然气价格下跌，未能达到第二季度的利润预期。今年第二季度，石油的平均实际价格下跌了32%，而天然气价格下跌了78%。尽管市场环境充满挑战，但产量仍增长了6%，达到120万桶油当量/天。西方石油公司还决定退出怀俄明州Powder River盆地的未来勘探，这导致了1.64亿美元的税后减值支出。随着美国石油和天然气库存的下降，这可能有助于支撑大宗商品价格，西方石油公司将能够从其增加的产量中受益。油价也在第三季度初显示出复苏的迹象。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：58美元至65美元。中性前景。

Unity Software Inc (U) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $533.48M, +79.6% YoY, beat estimates by $16.13M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.51, beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY23 Guidance: increased the midpoint of Unity’s revenue guide to $2.16B
  • Comment: Unity reported a strong Q2 with record results. It is optimistic about both near-term and long-term revenue and profit growth. Key factors contributing to their positive outlook include the success of Unity PolySpatial, the upcoming Unity Cloud platform, digital twins acceleration, the ONe platform synergy, and the introduction of AI products. Unity has seen accelerated revenue growth, improved profitability, and positive cash flow. The company is confident in its ability to sustain this growth and has increased its revenue guidance for FY23. Both the Create and Grow segments are performing well, with significant innovation and positive industry response to their offerings. Overall, Unity based on its performance, we expect to see a strong Q3 and Q4. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $43 to $58. Positive Outlook.

Unity软件 (U) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：5.3348亿美元, 同比增幅79.6%，超预期1,613万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股亏损：0.51美元，超预期0.11美元  
  • 23财年指引：将营收区间中值提升至21.6亿美元
  • 短评：Unity报告第二季度业绩强劲，创下历史新高。该公司对近期和长期的收入和利润增长都持乐观态度。促成他们乐观前景的关键因素包括Unity PolySpatial的成功、即将推出的Unity Cloud平台、数字孪生加速、ONe平台协同以及人工智能产品的引入。Unity的收入增长加快，盈利能力提高，现金流为正。该公司对其维持这一增长的能力充满信心，并提高了其23财年的收入指导。“创造”和“增长”两个部门都表现良好，创新显著，行业对其产品的反应也很积极。总的来说，基于Unity的表现，我们预计第三季度和第四季度会有强劲的表现。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：43美元至58美元。积极前景。

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