KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 26 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK US)

  • Shares closed at a high since Mar 2023 with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23.50, Target 25.50, Stop 22.50

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (GNK US)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 19.65, Target 21.65, Stop 18.65

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Aztech Global (AZTECH SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.920, Target 0.980, Stop 0.890

Dyna-Mac Ltd. (DMHL SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.300, Target 0.330, Stop 0.285

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Kunlun Energy Company Ltd (135 HK)

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  • Shares closed a 9-months high above the 5dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 7.21, Target 7.63, Stop 7.00

China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA touched the 50dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23.5, Target 24.9, Stop 22.8

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Moderna Inc. (MRNA)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $2.81B, -44.7% YoY, beat estimates by $280M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.55, beat estimates by $1.53
  • FY24 Guidance: Expects revenue of approximately $4bn for 2024 from its respiratory franchise; Expects cost of sales for 2024 to be approximately 35% of products sales for the year; FY2024 R&D expenses of approximately $4.5bn; 2024 SG&A expenses of approximately $1.3mn; 2024 Capex of approximately $0.9bn; expects 2024 year end cash and investments of approximately $9bn.
  • Comment: Moderna experienced a YoY decline in revenue, attributed to reduced Covid-19 vaccine uptake. Despite this, the company foresees a $4 billion revenue contribution from its overall respiratory franchise this year. There are expectations in the market for the U.S. FDA to approve Moderna’s RSV vaccine in the first half of the year, enabling the company to enter a respiratory-infection prevention market that generated approximately $2.5 billion in its inaugural year and is currently gaining momentum, particularly among older adults seeking immunization. This approval marks a pivotal step for Moderna, symbolizing its expansion beyond Covid-19 in the current year. The company emphasized the RSV vaccine’s robust efficacy and safety, along with the convenience of its pre-filled syringe, providing a competitive advantage over rivals with their multi-step preparatory processes. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $120. Positive Outlook.

Moderna Inc.(MRNA)

  • 23财年第四季营收：28.1 亿美元，同比下降44.7%，超预期 2.8 亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.55 美元，超预期 1.53 美元
  • 2024 财年指引：预计 2024 年呼吸道产品线收入约为 40 亿美元；预计 2024 年销售成本约占产品销售额的 35%；2024 财年研发费用约为 45 亿美元；2024 年销售、一般和管理费用约为 130 万美元；2024 年资本支出约为 9 亿美元；预计 2024 年底现金和投资约为 90 亿美元。
  • 短评：Moderna今年的收入同比下降，这主要归因于新冠疫苗接种率的降低。尽管如此，该公司预计其整个呼吸系统产品线今年将贡献 40 亿美元的收入。市场预计美国食品和药物管理局将在今年上半年批准 Moderna 的 RSV 疫苗，使该公司能够进入一个呼吸道感染预防市场。该市场在第一年创造了约 25 亿美元的收入，目前正迅速增长，尤其是在寻求免疫接种的老年人中。这一批准标志着 Moderna 在今年迈出了关键一步，标志着其业务范围超越了新冠疫苗。该公司强调了 RSV 疫苗的强大功效和安全性，以及其预灌注射器的便利性，使其比竞争对手的多步骤制备过程更具竞争优势。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：90美至120美元。积极前景。

Block Inc. (SQ)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $5.77B, +24.1% YoY, beats estimates by $60M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.45, miss estimates by $0.12
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects adjusted EBITDA of $570mn – $590mn compared with $562mn in 4Q23; Gross profit is expected around $2.00bn to $2.20bn compared with $2.03 in the prior quarter. FY2024 Guidance: expects gross profit of at least $8.65mn, up at least 15% YoY
  • Comment: Following its results, the company offered a guidance surpassing expectations for 1Q24. Emphasizing consistent growth in both its Square and Cash App ecosystems, the company has prioritized enhancing efficiency, including job cuts that reduced its headcount to below 12,000. Moving forward, the company aims to expand its customer base for banking services through its Cash App. Increased holiday spending contributed to higher transaction volumes through Square and AfterPay transactions. With a rebound in consumer sentiments in January, the company anticipates either growth or stability in transaction volume through Square in the current quarter.1Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $92. Positive Outlook.

Block Inc (SQ)

  • 23财年第四季营收：5.77 亿美元，同比增长 24.1%，超预期 6000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.45 美元，低于预期 0.12 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：根据公司预测，调整后EBITDA将在5.7亿至5.9亿美元之间，相比去年第四季度的5.62亿美元有所增长。预计毛利润将在20亿至22亿美元之间，相比上个季度的20.3亿美元基本持平。2024 财年指引：公司预计毛利润至少为 865 万美元，同比增长至少 15%。这相当于过去一年的利润增加了至少 15%。
  • 短评：公司在业绩发布后，为2024年第一季度提供了超出预期的指引。公司强调其Square和Cash App生态系统的一致增长，并优先提高效率，包括裁员将员工人数减少到12,000人以下。展望未来，公司计划通过其Cash App扩大银行服务客户群。假日消费增加推动了Square和AfterPay交易的交易量增长。随着消费者信心在1月份反弹，公司预计本季度Square的交易量将保持增长或稳定。24财年第一季度建议交易区间70美至92美元。积极前景。

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $4.78B, +18.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $32.00, beat estimates by $1.95
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects revenue growth to be between 11% and 13% and room night growth to be between 4% and 6%.
  • 4Q23 Dividend: Initiated a quarterly cash dividend of $8.75 per share. Expect to pay a cash dividend on a quarterly basis going forward subject to certain considerations.
  • Comment: Booking Holdings surpassed analysts’ fourth-quarter profit expectations, driven by a strong recovery in Asian markets despite a flat performance in room night bookings in the United States. Gross travel bookings increased by 16% YoY, with room nights booked rising by 9% compared to the prior year quarter. The company initiated a quarterly dividend of $8.75 per share, signalling confidence in its financial position. However, travel companies are tempering expectations for 2024 due to a projected slowdown in demand growth. Booking expects first-quarter room night growth between 4% and 6%, with revenue growth between 11% and 13%. Despite beating profit estimates, concerns about decelerating growth and conservative guidance are expected to impact investor sentiment. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $3,530 to $3,900. Neutral Outlook.

预订控股公司(BKNG)

  • 2023财年第四季营收：47.8 亿美元，同比增长 18.0%，超出预期 7,000 万美元
  • 2023财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：32.00 美元，超出预期 1.95 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：预计收入增长在 11% 至 13% 之间，间夜增长在 4% 至 6% 之间。
  • 2023财年第四季度股息：开始派发每股 8.75 美元的季度现金股息。考虑到某些因素，预计未来每季度支付现金股息。
  • 短评：预订控股公司第四季度利润超出分析师预期，主要受亚洲市场强劲复苏的推动，尽管美国客房预订量持平。旅行总预订量同比增长16%，与去年同期相比，客房预订量增长9%。公司启动了每股8.75美元的季度股息，表明其对财务状况充满信心。然而，由于预计需求增长放缓，旅游公司正在降低2024年的预期。预计第一季度客房预订量增长4%至6%，收入增长11%至13%。尽管利润超出预期，但增长放缓和保守指引的担忧预计将影响投资者情绪。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：3530美至3900美元。中性前景。

Intuit Inc. (INTU)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $3.39B, +11.5% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.63, beat estimates by $0.32
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expects revenue to grow by approximately 10% to 11%. GAAP diluted earnings per share of $7.77 to $7.84. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $9.31 to $9.38. FY24 Guidance: Reiterated revenue of $15.89bn to $16.105bn, growth of around 11% to 12%. GAAP operating income of $3.615bn to $3.720bn, growing about 15% to 18%. Non-GAAP operating income of $6.155bn to $6.260bn, growth of approximately 12% to 14%.
  • Comment: Intuit’s revenue for the second quarter met expectations, with strong performance in its Small Business and Self-Employed group, which saw an 18% increase. Despite a 5% decline in consumer group revenue, Intuit forecasts a 10% to 11% growth range for the third quarter, surpassing analysts’ projections of 9.7%. The company anticipates heightened demand for its AI-driven financial management tools tailored for small businesses, especially during tax season. Intuit’s strategic move to integrate TurboTax into its personal finance portal and accounting software aims to expand its user base and capitalize on tax preparation needs. With a strong financial outlook and strategic initiatives, including its focus on becoming a global AI-driven expert platform, Intuit aims to drive growth and penetrate its $300bnn TAM. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $645 to $655. Neutral Outlook.

Intuit Inc (INTU)

  • 24财年第二季营收：$3.39B，同比增长 11.5%，符合预期
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.63 美元，超预期 0.32 美元
  • 2024 财年第三季指引：预计收入将增长约 10% 至 11%。美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 每股摊薄收益为 7.77 美元至 7.84 美元。非美国通用会计准则 (Non-GAAP) 每股摊薄收益为 9.31 美元至 9.38 美元。2024 财年业绩指引：重申收入为 158.9 亿至 161.05 亿美元，增长约 11% 至 12%。美国通用会计准则营业收入为 36.15 亿至 37.20 亿美元，增长约 15% 至 18%。非美国通用会计准则营业收入为 61.55 亿至 62.60 亿美元，增长约 12% 至 14%。
  • 短评：第二季度財報符合預期，Intuit 的小型企業和自由职业者群體表现强劲，增长了 18%。尽管消费者群体收入下降了 5%，但 Intuit 预计第三季度将增长 10% 至 11%，超过分析师 9.7% 的预期。该公司预计其针对小型企业的 AI 驱动财务管理工具需求将增加，尤其是税季期间。Intuit 将 TurboTax 集成到其个人理财门户和会计软件的战略举措旨在扩大其用户群并满足税务准备需求。凭借强劲的财务前景和战略举措，包括成为全球 AI 驱动专家平台，Intuit 旨在推动增长并渗透其 3000 亿美元的 TAM 市场。。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：645美至655美元。中性前景。

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