KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 20 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Kroger Co. (KR US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 47.50, Target 49.50, Stop 46.50

Dollar General Corp. (DG US)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 140, Target 150, Stop 135

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City Development Ltd. (CDL SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.10, Target 6.50, Stop 5.90

UOL Group Ltd. (UOL SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.12, Target 6.52, Stop 5.92

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Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (1171 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 9-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 16.28, Target 17.32, Stop 15.76

China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd (1088 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since February 2013 above the 5wEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 30.4, Target 32.6, Stop 29.3

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Crocs Inc (CROX)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $960.09M, +1.6% YoY, miss estimates by $1.63M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.58, beat estimates by $0.21
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect Revenue to be down 1.5% to up 0.5% YoY; Adjusted operating margin of approximately 22%; Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.15 to $2.25 vs $2.26 consensus. FY24 Guidance: Revenue growth of 3% to 5% compared to 2023 at currency rates as of December 31, 2023; Adjusted operating margin of approximately 25%; Non-GAAP adjustments of approximately 25%; Non-GAAP adjustments of approximately $10mn; Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $12.05 to $12.50 vs $11.95 consensus
  • Comment: Crocs achieved a robust performance, reporting a record annual profit and revenue. Their positive 2024 outlook is fueled by strong demand for their main shoe line. The Crocs Brand experienced growth across all regions and channels, showcasing the effectiveness of the company’s strategy and disciplined execution. Despite a decline in revenue for the HEYDUDE Brand in 4Q23, management made progress in returning it to a pull-market position, resulting in improved gross margins and healthy inventory levels at year-end. The consumer sentiment, rebounding to a high of 79 since July 2021, is expected to contribute to increased sales for Crocs in 2024. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $110 to $140. Positive Outlook.

卡骆驰(CROX)

  • 23财年第四季营收：9.6 亿美元，同比增长 1.6%，低于预期163 万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.58 美元，超预期 0.21 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：预计收入同比下降 1.5% 至增长 0.5%；调整后营业利润率约为 22%；调整后摊薄每股收益为 2.15 美元至 2.25 美元，而分析师平均预期为 2.26 美元。2024 财年指引：与2023年相比，按2023年12月31日的汇率计算，收入增长3%至5%。调整后的营业利润率约为25%。非GAAP调整约为1000万元。调整后摊薄每股收益为12.05元至12.50元，分析师预期为11.95元。
  • 短评：卡骆驰（Crocs）在过去一年表现强劲，创下了年度利润和收入的新高。他们对2024年的积极展望源自其主打鞋款的强劲需求。克骆施品牌在所有地区和渠道都实现增长，展示了公司战略和执行力的有效性。尽管 HEYDUDE 品牌在 2023 年第四季度收入下降，但管理层在使其重回拉动市场方面取得了进展，从而改善了毛利率并使年底库存保持健康水平。消费者信心自 2021 年 7 月以来回升至 79 的高点，预计将为克骆施在 2024 年带来更高的销售额。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：110美至140美元。积极前景。

Draftkings Inc. (DKNG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.23B, +43.9% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.29, beat estimates by $0.11
  • FY24 Guidance: Revenue expected to be in the range of $4.65bn to $4.90bn, compared to a previous guidance of $4.50bn to $4.80bn; Adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $410mn to $510mn compared to a previous guidance of between $350mn to $450mn
  • Comment: The company recorded a 44% YoY revenue increase, falling short of market expectations. The boost in revenue was fueled by sustained customer engagement, acquiring new customers, expanding products into new regions, and introducing innovative products. DraftKings recently launched its Sportsbook in Maine and Vermont, extending its mobile sports betting to 24 states. The company is set to acquire Jackpocket for approximately $750 million, a move expected to drive long-term revenue but might impact near-term capital. Despite this, management raised FY24 guidance, emphasizing strong underlying fundamentals and notable customer acquisition in 4Q23. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $35 to $50. Neutral Outlook.

Draftkings Inc. (DKNG)

  • 23财年第四季营收：12.3 亿美元，同比增长 43.9%，低于预期 1000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.29 美元，超预期 0.11 美元
  • 2024 财年指引：根据最新指引，收入预计将在 46.5 亿至 49 亿新元之间，高于此前指引的 45 亿至 48 亿新元；经调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA) 预计将在 4.1 亿至 5.1 亿新元之间，高于此前指引的 3.5 亿至 4.5 亿新元之间。
  • 短评：该公司的收入同比增长 44%，但没有达到市场预期。收入增长得益于持续的客户参与、获取新客户、将产品扩展到新地区以及推出创新产品。DraftKings 最近在缅因州和佛蒙特州推出了其体育博彩，将其移动体育博彩扩展到 24 个州。该公司计划以约 7.5 亿美元收购 Jackpocket，此举预计会带来长期收入增长，但可能会影响短期资本。尽管如此，管理层提高了 2024 财年的指导，强调了強劲的基本面和在第四季度显著的客户获取。24财年第一季度建议交易区间35美至50美元。中性前景。

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $953.8M, +51.6% YoY, beat estimates by $134.87M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.04, beat estimates by $1.03
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects 1Q24 subscription and services revenue to be within a range of $410mn – $480mn; anticipates transaction expenses to be in the mid-teens as a percentage of net revenue. Expect technology & development and general & administrative expenses together will increase QoQ to $600-$650mn; Expect 1Q24 sales & marketing expenses to be $85mn – $100mn.
  • Comment: Coinbase posted a solid set of results, reporting its first quarterly profit since 2021, supported by strong trading volumes driven by renewed interest in cryptocurrencies. The resurgence of investor enthusiasm for crypto was fuelled by the US SEC’s approval of the first spot bitcoin ETFs recently. The rally in cryptocurrencies is likely to continue, with Bitcoin passing US$50,000 recently, the highest since Dec 2021. With the next Bitcoin halving expected to take place on 19th April, 2024, this is likely to drive Bitcoin prices higher as mining output is expected to slow down. Based on the previous two halvings, Bitcoin experienced bull cycles for 18 months (Previous two halving dates: 9 July 2016 and 11 May 2020). Notably, the upward momentum historically initiates 6 months before the halving date, suggesting that the current Bitcoin upcycle has commenced. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $230. Positive Outlook.

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

  • 2023财年第四季营收：9.538 亿美元，同比增长 51.6%，超出预期 1.3487 亿美元
  • 2023财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.04 美元，超出预期 1.03 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：预计 2024 年第一季度订阅和服务收入将在 4.1 亿至 4.8 亿美元之间；预计交易支出将占净收入的十几月中旬百分比。预计技术和开发以及一般和管理费用将环比增加到 6 亿至 6.5 亿美元；预计 2024 年第一季度销售和营销费用为 8500 万至 1 亿美元。
  • 短评：Coinbase 公布了一份强劲的业绩报告，这是自 2021 年以来首次实现季度盈利，其背后是加密货币重新受到青睐而带来的强劲交易量。最近美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准了首个比特币现货 ETF，进一步刺激了投资者对加密货币的热情。比特币价格最近突破 50,000 美元，为 2021 年 12 月以来最高，加密货币的反弹可能会持续下去。下一次比特币减半预计将在 2024 年 4 月 19 日发生，届时随着挖矿产出减慢，比特币价格可能会进一步上涨。根据之前两次减半的情况，比特币都经历了长达 18 个月的牛市周期（之前两次减半日期分别为 2016 年 7 月 9 日和 2020 年 5 月 11 日）。值得注意的是，历史上，比特币价格的上涨势头通常在减半日期前 6 个月开始，这表明当前的比特币牛市周期已经开始。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：170美至230美元。积极前景。

Deere & Co (DE)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $12.19B, -3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.86B
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $6.23, beat estimates by $1.02
  • FY24 Guidance: Forecast net income of $7.5bn to $7.75bn for 2024 vs consensus of $7.83bn. Company expects fleet replenishment to moderate as agricultural fundamentals normalize from record levels in 2022 and 2023.
  • Comment: The company delivered solid results but issued guidance below expectations, attributing it to declining crop prices impacting farmers’ purchasing power. Sales in production and precision agriculture, as well as the small agriculture and turf business, declined due to higher prices being outweighed by reduced shipment volumes. The agricultural sector faces challenges with soaring prices for farm machinery and tractors, coinciding with governments pushing for investments in climate-friendly technologies. Weak agricultural prices and a high-interest rate environment are likely to keep consumer demand for farm machinery subdued. The company remains committed to improving customer productivity and sustainability, emphasizing a shift toward recurring revenue models, such as subscriptions, to strengthen its financial position. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $350 to $380. Neutral Outlook.

Deere & Co. (DE)

  • 24财年第一季营收：121.9 亿美元，同比-3.6%，超预期 18.6 亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：6.23 美元，超预期 1.02 美元
  • 2024 财年指引：公司预计 2024 年淨收入为 75 亿至 77.5 亿美元，低于市场一致预期的 78.3 亿美元。由于农业基本面从 2022 年和 2023 年的记录水平恢复正常，预计船队补充将会放缓。
  • 短评：公司业绩表现良好，但发布的指引低于预期，原因是农作物价格下跌影响了农民的购买力。由于较高价格被出货量减少所抵消，生产和精准农业以及小型农业和草皮业务的销售额下降。农业部门面临着农业机械和拖拉机价格飙升的挑战，同时各国政府也在推动对气候友好型技术的投资。农产品价格低迷和高利率环境可能会抑制消费者对农业机械的需求。公司仍致力于提高客户的生产力和可持续性，并强调转向经常性收入模式（例如订阅），以加强其财务状况。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：350美至380美元。中性前景。

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $6.71B, -0.4% YoY, beat estimates by $220M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.13, beat estimates by $0.22
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expects net revenue to be approx. $6.50bn vs $6.33 consensus, plus or minus $400mn. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.79 to $2.15 vs $1.78 consensus.
  • Comment: Applied Materials delivered strong results and exceeded expectations in its guidance, credited to the resurgence of the personal computer market and the thriving artificial intelligence sector. Management emphasizes that its chip equipment business is poised for faster growth than the semiconductor industry due to the increasing technical complexity of advanced chips. The company’s leadership positions in key semiconductor advancements support sustained outperformance as customers adopt next-generation chip technologies crucial to AI and IoT in the coming years. With more companies joining the AI trend, influenced by major players like Microsoft and Alphabet, the anticipation of rate cuts in the first half of 2024 is expected to indirectly contribute to the company’s revenue growth. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $230. Positive Outlook.

应用材料 (AMAT)

  • 24财年第一季营收：67.1 亿美元，同比-0.4%，超预期 2.2 亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：2.13 美元，超预期 0.22 美元
  • 2024 财年指引第二季：预计净收入约为 65 亿美金，对比分析师预期 6.33 美金，正负 4 亿美金。非美国通用会计准则摊薄后每股收益预计在 1.79 美金到 2.15 美金之间，对比分析师预期 1.78 美金。
  • 短评：应用材料业绩强劲，超出预期指引，这归功于个人电脑市场复苏和人工智能行业的蓬勃发展。管理层强调，由于先进芯片的技术复杂性日益增加，其芯片设备业务的增长速度将快于整个半导体行业。公司在关键半导体领域的领先地位将支持其持续优于行业的表现，因为客户在未来几年将采用对人工智能和物联网至关重要的下一代芯片技术。随着微软和谷歌等主要参与者的影响，越来越多的公司加入人工智能浪潮，预计2024年上半年的降息预期将间接促进公司收入增长。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：200美至230美元。积极前景。

PENN Entertainment Inc (PENN)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.4B, -11.9% YoY, miss estimates by $130M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: –$1.75, miss estimates by $1.29
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Total Revenue expected to be in the range of $596mn to $598mn; Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $83.0mn to $84.0mn; Non-GAAP net income per common share is expected to be in the range of $1.48 to $1.50. FY24 Outlook: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.55bn to $2.56bn; Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $408.0mn to $412.0mn; Non-GAAP net income per common share is expected to be in the range of $6.86 to $6.94.
  • Comment: HubSpot has surpassed expectations in its recent financial results, underscoring the resilience and ingenuity embedded in its business model. Striving to position itself as the foremost AI-powered customer platform for expanding businesses, the company introduced over 800 product enhancements in 2023. Notably, a new seats-based pricing model was implemented as part of a strategic shift, anticipating sustained growth throughout 2024. This shift aims to simplify the purchasing process for HubSpot while aligning with the value it provides. In the wake of influential players like Microsoft and Alphabet, a growing number of companies are embracing AI, creating a favorable environment for HubSpot to capitalize on this trend and propel its growth. Additionally, the anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024 are likely to stimulate increased spending on AI by companies, further contributing to HubSpot’s positive outlook. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $600 to $740. Positive Outlook.

HubSpot Inc (HUBS)

  • 23财年第四季营收：5.8191 亿美元，同比增长 23.9%，超预期 2316 万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.76美元，超预期 0.21 美元
  • 2024 财年指引第一季：总收入预计在 5.96 亿美元至 5.98 亿美元之间；非 GAAP 营业收入预计在 8300 万美元至 8400 万美元之间；非 GAAP 每股普通股净利润预计在 1.48 美元至 1.50 美元之间。 2024 财年指引：总收入预计在 25.5 亿美元至 25.6 亿美元之间；非公认会计准则营业收入预计在 4.08 亿美元至 4.12 亿美元之间；非 GAAP 每股普通股净利润预计在 6.86 美元至 6.94 美元之间。
  • 短评：HubSpot 在最近的财务业绩中超出了预期，凸显了其商业模式中根深蒂固的韧性和创新精神。旨在成为成长型企业首选的人工智能客户平台，该公司在 2023 年推出了超过 800 项产品增强功能。值得注意的是，作为战略转变的一部分，实施了新的基于席位的定价模型，预计 2024 年将实现持续增长。这种转变旨在简化 HubSpot 的购买流程，同时与其提供的价值保持一致。继微软和谷歌等知名公司之后，越来越多的公司正在拥抱人工智能，为 HubSpot 抓住这一趋势并推动其发展创造了有利环境。此外，预计 2024 年的降息可能会刺激企业增加对人工智能的支出，进一步推动 HubSpot 的积极前景。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：600美至740美元。积极前景。

Roku Inc (ROKU)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $984.4M, +13.5% YoY, beat estimates by $17.29M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: –$0.55, in-line with estimates.
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $850mn vs analyst estimates of $834.1mn. The company forecasted a loss of $0.90 per share vs estimates of a loss of $0.69 per share.
  • Comment: Roku reported mixed results with revenue beating analysts’ estimates and a larger-than-expected Q4 loss. The company forecasts a larger Q1 loss due to tough competition and weak customer spending on video streaming. The company expects a loss of $0.90 per share, higher than analysts’ expectations of $0.69 per share. Roku faces stiff competition from streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video amid Americans’ efforts to cut expenses amid inflation. As streaming services prioritize profitability over subscriber growth, Roku competes for advertising revenue against companies like Meta and Alphabet. Additionally, slow spending on media and entertainment promotions and news of Walmart’s potential acquisition of Roku’s rival, Vizio, have contributed to Roku’s challenges. Despite a 13% increase in Q4 revenue from its platform, including digital ads and subscriptions, and a 15% rise in revenue from streaming devices and TV, the company faces uncertainties in the evolving streaming landscape.1Q24 recommended trading range: $79 to $85. Neutral Outlook.

Roku Inc (ROKU)

  • 23财年第四季营收：9.844 亿美元，同比增长 13.5%，超出预期 1729 万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：- 0.55 美元，与估计一致。
  • 2024 财年指引第一季：预计收入为 8.5 亿美元，而分析师预测为 8.341 亿美元。该公司预计每股亏损 0.90 美元，而预估为每股亏损 0.69 美元。
  • 短评：流媒体平台 Roku 财报喜忧参半。一方面，第四季度平台收入 (含数字广告和订阅) 和设备收入分别增长 13% 和 15%，超出分析师预期；另一方面，该季度亏损扩大，且预测第一季度亏损将进一步增加。Roku 面临着严峻挑战，包括 Netflix 和亚马逊 Prime Video 等流媒体巨头的激烈竞争、美国消费者因通胀减少流媒体支出、媒体支出疲软以及竞争对手 Vizio 可能被沃尔玛收购。尽管如此，Roku 平台收入仍在增长，其未来发展前景仍充满变数。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：79美至85美元。中性前景。

DoorDash Inc (DASH)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $2.3B, +26.4% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: –$0.39, miss estimates by $0.25
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects EBITDA to be between $320mn and $380mn vs consensus of $355.3mn. FY24 Guidance: Expects EBITDA to be between $1.5bn and $1.9bn vs expectations of $1.63bn. Gross order value (total value of all app orders and subscription fees) to be between $74bn and $78bn.
  • Comment: DoorDash reported a wider-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter due to increased labour costs, despite a surge in delivery orders. In Q4, DoorDash saw a 23% YoY increase in total orders to 574mn and a 26.4% YoY rise in revenue, reaching $2.3bn. The company forecasted a quarterly profitability metric between $320mn and $380mn, below Wall Street expectations. DoorDash saw its costs and expenses rise 9.3% YoY and attributed the higher costs to new regulations, leading to increased minimum pay for delivery workers. To attract more customers, DoorDash has been investing heavily in marketing and expanding its services beyond restaurant delivery to include grocery, convenience, and alcohol. Despite the challenges, DoorDash announced plans to buy back up to $1.1bn in shares this year. For 2024, the company expects gross order value to range between $74bn and $78bn, compared to $66.8bn in 2023. Looking ahead, with the company having to manage higher labour costs by attracting more customers, it also has to continue enduring stiff competition from its rivals UberEats and Instacart, hence its bottom line may not show much improvement in the current quarter. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $125. Neutral Outlook.

门客达(DASH)

  • 23财年第四季营收：23 亿美元，同比增长 26.4%，超预期 5000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：-0.39美元，比预期低 0.25美元
  • 2024 财年指引第一季：预计 EBITDA 将在 3.2 亿美元至 3.8 亿美元之间，而市场预期为 3.553 亿美元。 2024 财年指引：预计 EBITDA 将在 15 亿美元至 19 亿美元之间，而预期为 16.3 亿美元。总订单价值（所有应用订单和订阅费的总价值）在 740 亿美元至 780 亿美元之间。
  • 短评：门客达第四季度亏损扩大，超出预期，原因是送货订单激增，劳动力成本也随之增加。尽管如此，第四季度订单总量同比增长23%至5.74亿，收入同比增长26.4%至23亿美元。然而，公司预计季度盈利指标将在3.2亿至3.8亿美元之间，低于华尔街预期。门客达的成本和开支同比增长9.3%，这主要是由于新法规导致送货员最低工资上涨。为了吸引更多客户，门客达一直在大量投资营销，并将其服务范围从餐厅外卖扩展到杂货、便利店和酒精饮料。尽管面临挑战，门客达还是宣布计划今年回购价值最高11亿美元的股票。该公司预计2024年的商品总价值将在740亿至780亿美元之间，而2023年为668亿美元。展望未来，门客达需要通过吸引更多客户来管理更高的劳动力成本，同时还要继续承受来自竞争对手优步送餐和 Instacart 的激烈竞争，因此其利润可能不会在本季度出现大幅改善。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：115美至125美元。中性前景。

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