Technical Analysis – 2 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA and 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 107, Target 117, Stop 102

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 69.0, Target 74.0, Stop 66.5

Aztech Global Ltd. (AZTECH SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 0.93, Target 0.99 Stop 0.90

Sembcorp Industries Ltd. (SCI SP)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA and 200dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 4.70 Target 5.10 Stop 4.50

Huaneng Power International Inc (902 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 3.68, Target 4.00, Stop 3.52

Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd (991 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 1.18, Target 1.28, Stop 1.13

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)

3Q23 Revenue: $2.54B, +56.8% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.76, beat estimates by $0.08
FY23 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $1.86 billion, within the previously provided range despite the impact of global events including the wildfires in Maui and the escalating conflict in Israel. Adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.73, below prior guidance of $0.80.
Comment: While the company reported a stronger than expected results, it trims its full-year outlook as a result of the Israel-Hamas war. The company has canceled all of its stops in Israel as well as some stops in the surrounding region in Middle East for the rest of the year. This originally makes up 7% of the company’s cruise trips in 4Q23, and 4% of cruise trips in 2024. Adding on, bookings to Hawaii is also lower for 4Q23 due to the Maui wildfires back in August. The company is also feeling the cost pinch from higher expenses linked to food, fuel, raw materials and labour, alongside a stronger dollar, despite raising the prices on its itineraries. With the year end holidays coming up, demand for cruise experience is likely to still remain relatively strong for the rest of the region. With the end of rate hikes in sight, cost expenses are likely to improve in the near future. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $11 to $16. Neutral Outlook.

挪威邮轮 (NCLH)

23财年第三季营收：25.4亿美元, 同比增幅56.8%，超预期3,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.76美元，超预期0.08美元
23财年指引：尽管受到包括毛伊岛野火和以色列冲突升级在内的全球事件的影响，调整后的EBITDA预计约为18.6亿美元，在先前提供的范围内。调整后每股收益预计为0.73美元，低于此前0.80美元的指引。
短评：虽然该公司公布了强于预期的业绩，但由于以色列和哈马斯的战争，该公司下调了全年业绩预期。该公司已经取消了今年剩余时间在以色列以及中东周边地区的所有站点。这一比例最初占该公司2009年第四季度邮轮行程的7%，到2024年占邮轮行程的4%。此外，由于8月份毛伊岛的野火，23年第四季度前往夏威夷的预订量也有所下降。该公司还感受到与食品、燃料、原材料和劳动力相关的成本上升以及美元走强带来的成本压力，尽管该公司提高了其行程的价格。随着年底假期的临近，亚洲其他地区对邮轮体验的需求可能仍然相对强劲。随着利率上调的结束，成本支出在不久的将来可能会有所改善。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：11美元至16美元。中性前景。

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)

3Q23 Revenue: $7.4B, +8.0% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.30, beat estimates by $0.07
4Q23 Guidance: Net revenues are expected to grow ~6%-7% on a spot basis and ~7%-8% FXN, vs. consensus of $7.98B. GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to be ~$1.20, compared to $0.81 in the prior year period, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are expected to grow ~10% to $1.36, vs. consensus of $1.40 and compared to $1.24 in the prior year period. FY23 Guidance: GAAP earnings per diluted share are now expected to be ~$3.75, compared to $2.09 in FY’22; non-GAAP earnings per diluted share are now expected to grow ~21% to ~$4.98, compared to $4.13 in FY’22 and vs. consensus of $4.95. Estimated non-GAAP amounts for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023 reflect adjustments of approximately $1.7 billion.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, and raised its FY24 forecasts, showcasing that turnaround efforts are in progress under the new leadership of CEO Alex Chriss, who assumed position last month, as well as CFO Jamie Miller, who will be taking up position officially on Nov 6. New CEO Alex mentioned that he expect the company to grow revenue outside of purely transaction-related volume. PayPal’s strong results was also supported by positive consumer sentiments in 3Q23. With holidays and year-end sales coming up to entice inflation-weary shoppers, consumer sentiments and spending is likely to remain strong despite sentiments retracing in October. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $62. Positive Outlook.

PayPal (PYPL)

23财年第三季营收：74.0亿美元, 同比增幅8.0%，超预期2,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.30美元，超预期0.07美元
23财年第四季指引：净营收预计在现货基础上增长6%至7%，按货币中性增长7%至8%，而市场预期为79.8亿美元。GAAP每股摊薄收益预计约为1.20美元，而去年同期为0.81美元；Non-GAAP每股摊薄收益预计增长约10%，至1.36美元，而去年同期为1.40美元，而去年同期为1.24美元。23财年指引：GAAP每股摊薄收益目前预计为3.75美元，而22财年为2.09美元；Non-GAAP每股摊薄收益预计将增长21%至4.98美元，而22财年为4.13美元，而市场预期为4.95美元。截至2023年12月31日的12个月的Non-GAAP估计金额反映了约17亿美元的调整。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，并提高了其24财年的预测，这表明在上个月上任的首席执行官亚历克斯·克里斯和将于11月6日正式上任的首席财务官杰米·米勒的新领导下，公司正在努力扭转局面。新任首席执行官亚历克斯提到，他预计公司将在纯粹的交易相关数量之外增加收入。PayPal的强劲业绩也得到了23年第三季度积极的消费者情绪的支持。假期和年终销售即将到来，将吸引对通胀感到厌倦的购物者，消费者信心和支出可能保持强劲，尽管10月人气有所回落。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：205美元至250美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc (ABNB)

3Q23 Revenue: $3.4B, +18.1% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $6.63, beat estimates by $4.53
4Q23 Guidance: Expect to deliver revenue of $2.13 billion to $2.17 billion. This represents year-over-year growth of between 12% and 14%, which is relatively stable growth compared to Q3 2023 excluding the impact of FX. It anticipates implied take rate (defined as revenue divided by GBV) in Q4 2023 will be slightly higher than Q4 2022. Q3 was a record-breaking summer travel season for its business. expect a record-high Q4 Adjusted EBITDA in 2023 on a nominal basis and an Adjusted EBITDA margin that exceeds Q4 2022. As a result, expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin for full-year 2023 that is approximately 150 bps higher than full-year 2022.
Comment: The company posted a strong set of results, but provided a weaker-than-expected earnings for 4Q23 as tourists cut back on travel due to rising costs, uncertain economic conditions and geopolitical tensions around the globe. Management highlights that the company is seeing greater volatility in travel demand in early 4Q23. The company is also making efforts to reduce the price of Airbnb stays for consumers. With interest rate hikes possibly reaching its peak, alongside the upcoming year-end holidays, we may see an uptick in travel demand during the end of the year. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $105 to $135. Neutral Outlook.

爱彼迎 (ABNB)

23财年第三季营收：34.0亿美元, 同比增幅18.1%，超预期3,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：6.63美元，超预期4.53美元
23财年第四季指引：预计营收为21.3亿至21.7亿美元。这意味着同比增长在12%到14%之间，与2023年第三季度相比，这是一个相对稳定的增长，不包括外汇的影响。它预计2023年第四季度的隐含采用率（定义为收入除以总预定收入）将略高于2022年第四季度。第三季度是其业务创纪录的夏季旅游旺季。预计2023年第四季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润将创名义新高，调整后息税折旧摊销前利润将超过2022年第四季度。因此，预计2023年全年调整后的EBITDA利润率将比2022年全年高出约150个基点。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，但由于成本上升、经济状况不确定以及全球地缘政治紧张局势，游客减少了旅行，其第四季度收益低于预期。管理层强调，公司在23年第四季度初看到了更大的旅游需求波动。该公司还在努力为消费者降低平台上民宿的价格。随着加息可能达到顶峰，再加上即将到来的年终假期，我们可能会在年底看到旅游需求的上升。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：105美元至135美元。积极前景。

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

4Q23 Revenue: $8.67B, -23.9% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.02, beat estimates by $0.11
1Q24 Guidance: Total revenue of $9.1B-$9.9B vs $9.19B consensus, QCT Revenue of $7.7B-$8.3B, QTL Revenue of $1.3B-$1.5B, Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $2.25-$2.45 vs $2.23 consensus.
Comment: The company provided a better-than-expected forecast, indicating that the smartphone sales slump is showing signs of recovery. Aside from grappling with a smartphone slump at the start of the year, the company is also facing new competition as players like Huawei Technologies, has resumed production of its own smartphone chips after relying on Qualcomm for several years. Samsung Electronics is also expected to resume using some of its own in-house chips in the future. However, Qualcomm expects total shipments using its handset chips to decline “mid- to high single-digit percentage” in 2023 versus last year, which is better than the company had previously expected. The company also signed a fresh supply agreement with Apple lasting till 2026 in September, providing a boost to its future outlook. The company also recently disclosed its plans for a renewed push into the laptop market with support from Microsoft, announcing new Android and Windows PC chips with AI portions called NPUs that could generate AI images significantly faster than last year’s processors. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $110 to $130. Positive Outlook.

高通 (QCOM)

23财年第四季营收：86.7亿美元, 同比跌幅23.9%，超预期1.5亿美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.02美元，超预期0.11美元
24财年第一季指引：总收入为91亿至99亿美元，市场预期为91.9亿美元；高通半导体业务营收为77亿至83亿美元；高通技术许可业务营收为13亿至15亿美元；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为2.25至2.45美元，市场预期为2.23美元。
短评：三星电子的预期比预想的要好，这表明智能手机的销售低迷正在出现复苏的迹象。除了要应对今年年初智能手机市场的低迷，该公司还面临着新的竞争，因为华为技术有限公司等竞争对手在依赖高通多年后，已经恢复了自己的智能手机芯片生产。预计三星电子未来也将恢复使用部分自有芯片。然而，高通预计，与去年相比，2023年使用其手机芯片的总出货量将下降中位数至高个位数百分比，这好于该公司此前的预期。该公司还在9月份与苹果签署了一项新的供应协议，该协议将持续到2026年，为其未来前景提供了提振。该公司最近还披露了在微软的支持下重新进军笔记本电脑市场的计划，宣布了新的Android和Windows PC芯片，其中包含被称为npu的人工智能部分，可以比去年的处理器更快地生成人工智能图像。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：110美元至130美元。积极前景。

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

1Q24 Revenue: $2.12B, +14.6% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.43, beat estimate by $0.18
2Q24 Guidance: Expects net sales of $2.7bn to $2.9bn, GAAP net income per diluted share of $3.75 to $4.24 and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $4.40 to $4.88. The Company’s projections for GAAP and non-GAAP net income per diluted share assume a tax rate of approximately 15.7% and 17.1%, respectively, and a fully diluted share count of 57.6mn shares for GAAP and fully diluted share count of 58.3mn shares for non-GAAP. The outlook for 2Q24 GAAP net income per diluted share includes approximately $40mn in expected stock-based compensation, net of related tax effects of $13mn that are excluded from non-GAAP net income per diluted share. FY24 Guidance: maintains its guidance for net sales from a range of $10bn to $11bn.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, outperforming in the period despite of shortage of graphic processing units, showcasing the resilience of the company’s business. The company is also working diligently to tackle the issue of GPU supply constraints, and at the same time, they are also seeing strong demand for AI infrastructure, as well as compelling new and upcoming compute and storage products going into FY24. It raised its FY24 sales guidance on the back of strong demand for AI infrastructure alongside upcoming compute and storage products. With the peak of interest rate hikes in sight, companies would be expected to reduce their cost-cutting strategies and focus on growth. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $250 to $320. Positive Outlook.

超微电脑 (SMCI)

24财年第一季营收：21.2亿美元, 同比增幅14.6%，超预期6,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.43美元，超预期0.18美元
24财年第二季指引：预计净销售额为27亿美元至29亿美元，GAAP摊薄每股净利润为3.75美元至4.24美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股净利润为4.40美元至4.88美元。公司对GAAP和Non-GAAP摊薄每股净收入的预测分别假设税率约为15.7%和17.1%，GAAP完全摊薄股数为5,760万股，Non-GAAP完全摊薄股数为5,830万股。24年第二季度的GAAP摊薄每股净收入前景包括约4,000万美元的预期股票薪酬，扣除相关税收影响的1,300万美元，这些影响不包括在Non-GAAP摊薄每股净收入中。24财年指引：维持净销售额指引在100亿美元至110亿美元之间。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，尽管GPU短缺，但在此期间仍表现出色，显示了公司业务的弹性。该公司也在努力解决GPU供应限制的问题，与此同时，他们也看到了对人工智能基础设施的强劲需求，以及即将进入24财年的引人注目的新计算和存储产品。由于对人工智能基础设施以及即将推出的计算和存储产品的强劲需求，该公司上调了24财年的销售指引。随着加息峰值即将到来，预计企业将减少削减成本的策略，专注于增长。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：250美元至320美元。积极前景。

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)

3Q23 Revenue: $6.57B, +1.1% YoY, miss estimates by $130M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.72, beat estimate by $0.06
FY23 Guidance: Raises Full Year Outlook for Constant Currency Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS Adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.91 to $2.99, compared to the previous range of $2.83 to $2.91. (vs. consensus $2.89). Organic Net Sales growth of 4 to 6% versus the prior year, closer to the lower end of the range at approximately 4%.
Comment: Kraft Heinz exceeded earnings estimates and fell short of revenue estimates in Q3. However, it raised its 2023 profit estimates for the second time this year, driven by higher prices for its packaged meals and condiments. The price increases, which boosted gross margins, were offset by a decrease in overall volumes, potentially due to customers being wary of inflation. Sales growth in North America was affected by higher meat prices, but the company anticipates a return to normal growth levels in Asia markets in the fourth quarter. There is an anticipated decline in purchase volume in the coming quarters, due to the rising prices of its products. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $30 to $35. Neutral Outlook.

卡夫亨氏 (KHC)

23财年第三季营收：65.7亿美元, 同比增幅1.1%，逊预期1.3亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.72美元，超预期0.06美元
23财年第四季指引：上调全年固定汇率调整后EBITDA和调整后每股收益预期调整后每股收益范围为2.91美元至2.99美元，而之前的范围为2.83美元至2.91美元，市场共识2.89美元。有机净销售额同比增长4%至6%，接近4%左右的区间下限。
短评：卡夫亨氏第三季度盈利超出预期，营收低于预期。然而，受包装食品和调味品价格上涨的推动，该公司今年第二次上调了2023年的利润预期。价格上涨提振了毛利率，但被整体销量下降所抵消，这可能是由于客户对通胀持谨慎态度。北美的销售增长受到肉类价格上涨的影响，但该公司预计亚洲市场的增长将在第四季度恢复到正常水平。由于其产品价格上涨，预计未来几个季度的购买量将有所下降。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：30美元至35美元。中性前景。

Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL)

1Q24 Revenue: $3.52B, -10.6% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.11, beat estimate by $0.31
2Q24 Guidance: Reported net sales are forecasted to decrease between 11% and 9% versus the prior-year period. Currency exchange rates are volatile and difficult to predict. Organic net sales, which excludes returns associated with restructuring and other activities; non-comparable impacts from acquisitions, divestitures and brand closures; as well as the impact of foreign currency translation, are forecasted to decrease between 10% to 8%. Reported diluted net earnings per common share are projected to be between $.47 and $.57. FY24 Guidance: Reported net sales are forecasted to range between a decrease of 2% and an increase of 1% versus the prior year. Currency exchange rates are volatile and difficult to predict. Organic net sales, which excludes returns associated with restructuring and other activities; non-comparable impacts from acquisitions, divestitures and brand closures; as well as the impact of foreign currency translation, are forecasted to range between a decrease of 1% and an increase of 2%. Reported diluted net earnings per common share are projected to be between $2.08 and $2.35.
Comment: Estee Lauder has lowered its annual profit forecast and anticipates a decrease in annual sales due to challenges in its Asia travel retail business, particularly in China. Estee Lauder derives around 36% of its annual revenue from the Asia-Pacific region. Luxury companies worldwide are experiencing reduced spending post-pandemic, especially in China. Tighter controls on “daigou” resellers in China have also affected these luxury brands. Estee Lauder expects inventory challenges in Asia travel retail to persist until the end of the third quarter in 2024. Despite, the company seeing an 8% increase in sales in the Americas, the sales decline in the Asia-Pacific region has led to an overall decline in sales. Due to reduced product demand and external economic challenges, the company has adjusted its outlook to account for a slower recovery in both net sales and profit margins. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $90 to $110. Negative Outlook.

雅思兰黛 (EL)

24财年第一季营收：35.2亿美元, 同比跌幅10.2%，逊预期3,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.11美元，超预期0.31美元
24财年第二季指引：报告的净销售额预计将比去年同期下降11%至9%。货币汇率波动无常，难以预测。有机净销售额，不包括与重组和其他活动相关的回报，以及来自收购、资产剥离和品牌关闭的非可比影响，加上外币折算的影响，预计将下降10%至8%。已报告的摊薄后每股普通股净收益预计将在10亿美元之间。47美元和57美元。24财年指引：报告净销售额预计与去年相比下降2%至增长1%之间。货币汇率波动无常，难以预测。有机净销售额，不包括与重组和其他活动相关的回报，以及来自收购、资产剥离和品牌关闭的非可比影响；加上外币折算的影响，预计将在下降1%到增长2%之间。报告的摊薄后每股普通股净收益预计在2.08美元至2.35美元之间。
短评：雅诗兰黛下调了年度利润预期，并预计由于亚洲旅游零售业务的挑战，特别是在中国，年度销售额将会下降。雅诗兰黛约36%的年收入来自亚太地区。全球奢侈品公司在疫情后都在减少支出，尤其是在中国。中国对“代购”经销商的更严格控制也影响了这些奢侈品牌。雅诗兰黛预计，亚洲旅游零售的库存挑战将持续到2024年第三季度末。尽管该公司在美洲的销售额增长了8%，但亚太地区的销售额下降导致了整体销售额的下降。由于产品需求减少和外部经济挑战，该公司已经调整了其前景，以应对净销售额和利润率的缓慢复苏。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：90美元至110美元。负面前景。

SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG)

3Q23 Revenue: $725.31M, -13.3% YoY, beat estimates by $0.84M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.55, miss estimate by $0.21
4Q23 Guidance: Revenues to be within the range of $300mn to $350mn. Non-GAAP gross margin expected to be within the range of 5% to 8%, including approximately 130 basis points of net IRA manufacturing tax credit. Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of $126mn to $130mn. Revenues from the solar segment to be within the range of $275mn to $320mn. Gross margin from the solar segment is expected to be within the range of 7% to 10% including approximately 130 basis points of net IRA manufacturing tax credit.
Comment: SolarEdge reported mixed results in Q3 and provided weak guidance for Q4. SolarEdge’s current quarter revenue outlook is between $300 million and $350 million, which is significantly below analysts’ estimates of $688 million. The solar sector has been facing challenges, including a slow market environment and reduced demand for solar energy, partly due to changes in California’s solar incentive programs and rising interest rates. Additionally, this situation has led to a significant buildup of product inventory in various distribution channels, particularly in Europe. Furthermore, given that the company is headquartered in Israel, despite the CEO’s assurance that the Israel-Hamas war has not affected manufacturing, some investors may still have concerns. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $56 to $60. Negative Outlook.

SolarEdge (SEDG)

23财年第三季营收：7.2531亿美元, 同比跌幅13.3%，超预期84万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.55美元，逊预期0.21美元
23财年第四季指引：营收将在3亿至3.5亿美元之间。Non-GAAP毛利率预计在5%至8%的范围内，包括约130个基点的净IRA制造业税收抵免。Non-GAAP运营费用在1.26亿美元至1.3亿美元之间。太阳能部门的收入将在2.75亿美元至3.2亿美元之间。太阳能部门的毛利率预计将在7%至10%的范围内，其中包括约130个基点的净IRA制造业税收抵免。
短评：SolarEdge公布了第三季度喜忧参半的业绩，并提供了疲弱的第四季度指引。SolarEdge目前的季度收入预期在3亿至3.5亿美元之间，远低于分析师预期的6.88亿美元。太阳能行业一直面临着挑战，包括缓慢的市场环境和太阳能需求的减少，部分原因是加州太阳能激励计划的变化和利率的上升。此外，这种情况导致各种分销渠道的产品库存大幅增加，特别是在欧洲。此外，考虑到该公司总部位于以色列，尽管首席执行官保证以色列和哈马斯的战争没有影响到制造业，一些投资者可能仍然存在担忧。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：50美元至65美元。负面前景。