KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 2 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Applied Materials. (AMAT US)

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 151, Target 161, Stop 146

Deere & Company (DE US)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA..
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 432, Target 452, Stop 422

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Banyan Tree Holdings (BTH SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5wEMA with an incline in volume. 
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.440, Target 0.485 Stop 0.418

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp Ltd (CAO SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an incline in volume. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive. 
  • Long – Entry 0.940 Target 0.990, Stop 0.915

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Wuxi Apptec Co. Ltd. (2359 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 79, Target 87, Stop 75

Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (1099 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 24.7, Target 26.7, Stop 23.7

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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $2.21B, +85.7% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.30, beat estimates by $0.04
  • 3Q23 Guidance:  expects adjusted EPS of about $0.70 vs. $0.79 consensus. FY23 EPS of about $0.80 vs. a prior view of $0.75 to $0.80 and the consensus mark of $0.78. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.85B to $1.95B is anticipated vs. $1.80B to $1.95B consensus. 
  • Comment: While the company raised its FY2023 guidance, the company offered a weak guidance for the next quarter, which was lower than analysts’ estimates. Investors think the higher full-year guidance was due to the 2Q23 earnings beats, and see no “organic raise” by the company for the rest of the year. However, several countries have experienced tourist levels similar to pre-pandemic times in recent months, and it is expected that tourism levels will rise further during the second half of 2023, despite challenges such as persistent inflation and high-interest rates.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $17 to $23. Neutral Outlook.

挪威邮轮 (NCLH)

  • 23财年第二季营收：22.1亿美元, 同比增长85.7%，超预期4,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.30美元，超预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计调整后每股收益约为0.70美元，而市场预期为0.79美元。23财年每股收益约为0.80美元，此前预期为0.75至0.80美元，市场普遍预期为0.78美元。预计全年调整后的EBITDA为18.5亿至19.5亿美元，而市场预期为18.8亿至19.5亿美元。
  • 短评：虽然该公司上调了2023财年的指引，但该公司对下一季度的指引较弱，低于分析师的预期。投资者认为，上调全年预期是由于23年第二季度的盈利表现好于预期，并认为该公司在今年剩余时间内不会“有机增长”。然而，近几个月来，一些国家的旅游水平与大流行前类似，尽管面临持续通货膨胀和高利率等挑战，但预计2023年下半年的旅游水平将进一步上升。第三季度建议交易区间：17美元至23美元。中性前景。

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $9.2B, +14.0% YoY, miss estimates by $140M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.18, beat estimates by $0.19
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Gross Bookings of $34.0B to $35.0B; Adjusted EBITDA of $975M to $1.025B.
  • Comment: The company delivered its first operating profit and also provided better-than-expected guidance. With travel rebounding and consumer confidence recovery, we expect to see a rise in demand for transport services. However, the company is faced with competition from Lyft, which recently ramped up its aggressive pricing strategy, lowering its prices in an attempt to attract more consumers. This may affect the demand and sales for Uber in the near term.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $43 to $54. Neutral Outlook.

优步科技 (UBER)

  • 23财年第二季营收：92.0亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，逊预期1.4亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.18美元，超预期0.19美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：总预订量340亿至350亿美元；调整后EBITDA为9.75亿美元至10.25亿美元。
  • 短评：该公司首次实现营业利润，并提供了好于预期的指引。随着旅游业的反弹和消费者信心的恢复，我们预计对运输服务的需求将会上升。然而，该公司面临着来自Lyft的竞争，后者最近加大了激进的定价策略，降低了价格，试图吸引更多的消费者。这可能会在短期内影响优步的需求和销售。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：43美元至54美元。中性前景。

Pfizer Inc (PFE) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $12.7B, -54.1% YoY, miss estimates by $700M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.67, beat estimates by $0.09
  • FY23 Guidance: Narrows revenue guidance range to $67B to $70B vs. consensus of $67.30B, and adjust 2023 Non-COVID operational revenue growth expectation to 6% to 8%.
  • Comment: The company’s sales from its COVID-19 products have been softening as COVID-19 becomes endemic globally. The company also announced that its 2nd quarter revenue was also mainly driven by a series of new drug approvals coming in the second quarter and drugs from recent deals. As the company is likely to continue seeing a fall in sales for COVID-19 products as the pandemic becomes more of a history, the company needs to continue to stay invested to build on other revenue streams that could soften the impact of the COVID-19 sales slowdown. A small positive would be that the company’s sales excluding COVID-19 products, grew about 5%, by $537 million. The company is also looking at cost-cutting measures to increase the company’s profitability. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $32 to $39. Neutral Outlook.

辉瑞 (PFE) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：127亿美元, 同比跌幅54.1%，逊预期7,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.67美元，超预期0.09美元  
  • 23财年指引：将营收指引范围缩小至670亿至700亿美元，而共识为673亿美元，并将2023年非新冠业务收入增长预期调整为6%至8%。
  • 短评：随着新冠疫情在全球流行，该公司的新冠产品销售一直在走软。该公司还宣布，其第二季度收入主要受到第二季度一系列新药批准和近期交易药物的推动。随着新冠大流行成为历史，公司可能会继续看到新冠产品的销售额下降，公司需要继续保持投资，以建立其他收入来源，以减轻新冠销售放缓的影响。一个小小的积极因素是，该公司不包括新冠产品的销售额增长了约5%，达到5.37亿美元。该公司还在考虑削减成本的措施，以提高公司的盈利能力。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：32美元至39美元。中性前景。

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $5.36B, -18.2% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.58, beat estimates by $0.01
  • 3Q23 Guidance: expects revenue to be approximately $5.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million ($5.85B consensus), and expects non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 51%.
  • Comment: AMD saw an increase in AI engagement by over 7 times, as the company see more customers initiated or expanded programs supporting future deployments of Instinct accelerators. The company mentioned that they have been making strong progress in meeting key hardware and software milestones to cater to their growing customer pool for their data centre AI solutions. AMD is also set to launch their MI300 accelerators in 4Q23, which would be well-suited for AI projects and AI Applications. However, the current PC market is facing excess inventory and poor demand, which may pose some headwinds to the company.  3Q23 recommended trading range: $110 to $130. Neutral Outlook.

超微半导体 (AMD) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：53.6亿美元, 同比跌幅18.2%，逊预期4,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.58美元，超预期0.01美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计营收约为57亿美元，上下浮动3亿美元，市场预期为58.5亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率约为51%。
  • 短评：公司的人工智能参与度增加了7倍以上，因为该公司看到越来越多的客户启动或扩展了支持未来部署本能加速器的计划。该公司提到，他们在满足关键硬件和软件里程碑方面取得了重大进展，以满足其数据中心人工智能解决方案不断增长的客户群。公司还将在2023年第四季度推出MI300加速器，这将非常适合人工智能项目和人工智能应用。然而，目前的个人电脑市场正面临着库存过剩和需求低迷，这可能会给该公司带来一些不利因素。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至130美元。中性前景。

Starbucks Corp (SBUX) 

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $9.2B, +12.9% YoY, miss estimates by $80M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.47, beat estimates by $0.03
  • FY23 Guidance: reaffirmed its FY23 outlook during its conference call, projecting revenue growth of 10% to 12%. The company slightly raised its adjusted earnings-per-share growth outlook to 16% to 17% from the low end of 15% to 20%.
  • Comment: Starbucks reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings but fell short of Wall Street’s estimates for same-store sales growth. Despite the slight miss in same-store sales, Starbucks’ operating margin expanded to 17.3% from improvements in productivity and higher menu prices. In North America, same-store sales grew 7%, and outside North America, same-store sales increased by 24%, driven by strong demand in China with a 46% increase in same-store sales. Despite the mixed results, we anticipate Starbucks margins to be buoyed in the coming quarter by China’s growth alongside North America’s sales. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $98 to $110. Positive Outlook.

星巴克 (SBUX) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：92.0亿美元, 同比增幅12.9%，逊预期8,000万美元  
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.47美元，超预期0.03美元  
  • 23财年指引：在电话会议上重申了对23财年的预期，预计营收将增长10%至12%。该公司将调整后的每股收益增长预期从15%至20%的低端略微上调至16%至17%。
  • 短评：星巴克公布的第三季度收益好于预期，但同店销售增长低于华尔街的预期。尽管同店销售额略有下降，但由于生产率的提高和菜单价格的提高，星巴克的营业利润率扩大到17.3%。在北美，同店销售额增长了7%，而在北美以外，受中国强劲需求的推动，同店销售额增长了46%，增长了24%。尽管结果喜忧参半，但我们预计星巴克在下一季度的利润率将受到中国和北美销售增长的提振。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：98美元至110美元。积极前景。

SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $991.29M, +36.2% YoY, miss estimates by $4.6M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.79, beat estimates by $0.23
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenues to be within the range of $880M to $920M. Non-GAAP gross margin expected to be within the range of 28% to 31%.
  • Comment: SolarEdge Technologies expects its Q3 revenue to be below Wall Street estimates. The slowdown in demand for its solar inverters in the United States is attributed to low electricity prices, high borrowing costs, and a new metering reform in California. Growth in the European market has also been slower than anticipated. Solar revenues from Europe increased 19% sequentially, while U.S. solar revenue decreased by 23% compared to the last quarter. In the short-term we anticipate that with the higher interest rates, the company may face a further decline of demand for its solar inverters. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $200 to $215. Negative Outlook.

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：9.9129亿美元, 同比增幅36.2%，逊预期460万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.79美元，超预期0.23美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：营收将在8.8亿美元至9.2亿美元之间。Non-GAAP毛利率预计在28%至31%之间。
  • 短评：SolarEdge Technologies预计其第三季度收入将低于华尔街的预期。美国市场对该公司太阳能逆变器需求放缓的原因是电价低、借贷成本高，以及加州一项新的计量改革。欧洲市场的增长也低于预期。来自欧洲的太阳能收入环比增长19%，而美国的太阳能收入较上一季度下降23%。在短期内，我们预计随着利率的提高，该公司可能会面临对其太阳能逆变器需求的进一步下降。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：200美元至215美元。负面前景。

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