KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 18 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

V.F. Corp. (VFC US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 18.0, Target 20.0, Stop 17.0

Hanesbrand Inc. (NET US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.30, Target 4.70, Stop 4.10

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Aztech Global Ltd. (AZTECH SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.87, Target 0.93, Stop 0.84

iFast Corp. (IFAST SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.80 Target 6.20 Stop 5.60

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China Resources Gas Group Ltd (1193 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.  
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23.1, Target 25.1, Stop 22.1

Kunlun Energy Company Ltd (135 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 6.9, Target 7.3, Stop 6.7

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Bank of America Corp (BAC)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $25.2B, +2.9% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  • 3Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.90, beat estimates by $0.08
  • 4Q23 Guidance: expect to be around $14 billion fully taxable equivalent, and that increases BAC full year guidance for NII in 2023 versus 2022 to 9% growth per year. 
  • Comment: Bank of America reported higher-than-expected Q3 profit, benefiting from interest payments and strong performance in investment banking and trading. The US economy’s resilience, a hot job market, and consumer spending have helped keep businesses, including banks, in good shape. BofA’s consumer banking unit revenue rose 6%, and card spending increased 3%. The bank’s net income rose 10% to $7.8 billion in Q3. Its investment banking and trading units outperformed, with a 2% rise in investment banking fees and an 8% increase in sales and trading revenue. Lenders have benefited from higher rates after the Federal Reserve’s actions against inflation. BofA’s net interest income grew 4% to $14.4 billion in 3Q. However, the bank faced unrealised losses of $131.6 billion on securities held until maturity, which constrained its ability to generate larger profits. Looking ahead as interest rates are expected to remain higher for longer, we anticipate that BAC will continue to benefit from it in the current quarter. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $25 to $30. Neutral Outlook.  

美国银行 (BAC) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：252亿美元, 同比增幅2.9%，超预期1.3亿美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.90美元，超预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年指引：预计将达到140亿美元左右的完全应税等价物，这将使美国银行对2023年净利息收入的全年指导增长率从2022年提高到每年9%。
  • 短评：美国银行公布第三季度利润高于预期，受益于利息支付以及投资银行和交易业务的强劲表现。美国经济的弹性、炙手可热的就业市场和消费者支出帮助包括银行在内的企业保持了良好的状态。美国银行的消费者银行部门收入增长了6%，信用卡支出增长了3%。该行第三季度净利润增长10%，至78亿美元。其投资银行和交易部门表现优异，投资银行费用增长2%，销售和交易收入增长8%。在美联储采取对抗通胀的措施后，贷款机构从更高的利率中受益。美国银行第三季度净利息收入增长4%，至144亿美元。然而，该行在到期前持有的证券上面临1316亿美元的未实现亏损，这限制了其创造更大利润的能力。展望未来，由于利率预计将在更长时间内保持较高水平，我们预计该银行将在当前季度继续从中受益。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：25美元至30美元。中性前景。

Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $16.88B, +1.8% YoY, beating estimates by $160M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.77, beat estimates by $0.15
  • FY23 Guidance: reaffirms net sales of $66.25B – $66.75B vs. consensus of $66.64B; Diluted EPS of $27 to $27.2 vs. consensus of $27.11
  • Share buyback: Increased share repurchase authority by $6.0 billion to a total authorisation of $13.0 billion
  • Comment: Lockheed Martin beat 3Q revenue and EPS estimates. It placed emphasis on its commitment to supporting the U.S. government’s efforts to deter conflict and achieve peace. The company reported a 2% increase in sales to $16.9 billion, a strong free cash flow of $2.5 billion, and returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Lockheed Martin reaffirmed its full-year 2023 financial outlook and hinted at low single-digit sales growth for 2024, driven by a strong backlog and consistent demand for its 21st Century Security capabilities. LMT also highlighted various programs and achievements in their aeronautics, missiles and fire control, rotary and mission systems, and space segments, including developments in the F-35 program, missile defense, and space technology. With ongoing Israel–Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, we anticipate countries would wish to strengthen their military defences, contributing to increased revenue for the current quarter. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $430 to $470. Positive Outlook. 

洛克希德马丁 (LMT) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：168.8亿美元, 同比增幅1.8%，超预期1.6亿美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.77美元，超预期0.15美元  
  • 23财年指引：重申净销售额为662.5亿至667.5亿美元，市场预期为666.4亿美元；稀释后每股收益为27美元至27.2美元，而市场预期为27.11美元
  • 股票回购：股票回购授权增加60亿美元至130亿美元
  • 短评：洛克希德马丁公司第三季度收入和每股收益超出预期。它强调承诺支持美国政府遏制冲突和实现和平的努力。该公司报告称，销售额增长2%，达到169亿美元，自由现金流强劲，达到25亿美元，并通过股息和股票回购将100%的自由现金流返还给股东。洛克希德马丁公司重申了其2023年全年的财务前景，并暗示2024年的销售增长率为个位数，这是由于对其21世纪安全能力的强劲积压和持续需求。公司还强调了在航空、导弹和火控、旋转和任务系统以及空间领域的各种项目和成就，包括F-35项目、导弹防御和空间技术的发展。随着以色列-哈马斯和俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突的持续，我们预计各国将希望加强军事防御，这有助于增加本季度的收入。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：430美元至470美元。积极前景。

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $11.82B, -1.3% YoY, beating estimates by $690M
  • 3Q23 GAAP EPS: $5.47, misses estimates by $0.06
  • FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided but the company expects continued recovery in both capital markets and strategic activity such as mergers and acquisitions.
  • Comment: Goldman Sachs reported a Q3 profit decline of 33%, which was better than expected, due to a recovery in dealmaking, offsetting a $864 million writedown linked to its GreenSky fintech business and real estate investments. The net profit stood at $2.06 billion, surpassing analysts anticipation. Goldman’s investment banking fees of $1.55 billion remained largely unchanged from the previous year as debt underwriting activity resumed, and the market for initial public offerings improved. However, the bank’s consumer banking venture continued to weigh on its earnings, with a $506 million writedown on GreenSky, and real estate investments also had a negative impact on revenue. Despite challenges, the CEO expressed optimism for continued recovery in capital markets and strategic activity. Goldman Sachs aims to focus on its traditional strengths in investment banking and trading and grow in asset and wealth management to build a stronger platform for the future. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $300 to $330. Neutral Outlook. 

高盛 (GS) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：118.2亿美元, 同比跌幅1.3%，超预期6.9亿美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.90美元，逊预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司没有提供指引，但预计资本市场和并购等战略活动将继续复苏。
  • 短评：高盛公布第三季度利润下降33%，好于预期，原因是交易撮合业务的复苏，抵消了与GreenSky金融科技业务和房地产投资相关的8.64亿美元减记。净利润为20.6亿美元，超过分析师预期。高盛15.5亿美元的投行费用与上年基本持平，因债券承销活动恢复，且首次公开发行市场有所改善。然而，该银行的消费银行业务继续拖累其收益，GreenSky减记了5.06亿美元，房地产投资也对收入产生了负面影响。尽管面临挑战，这位首席执行官对资本市场和战略活动的持续复苏表示乐观。高盛的目标是专注于其在投行和交易领域的传统优势，并在资产和财富管理领域实现增长，为未来打造一个更强大的平台。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：300美元至330美元。中性前景。

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $21.35B, +6.8% YoY, beating estimates by $300M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.66, beat estimates by $0.14
  • FY23 Guidance: Revenue of $83.6B-$84B from prior guidance of $83.2B-$84B vs. $84.52B consensus; Adj. EPS of $10.07-$10.13 from prior guidance of $10.00-$10.10 vs. $10.03 consensus. 
  • Comment: The company posted a set of strong results followings its separation from its consumer health spinoff Kenvue in August. The company lifted its full-year guidance as sales in the company’s pharmaceutical and medical devices businesses surged. MedTech sales were $7.5 billion for the quarter, up 10.4% on an operational basis. However, there are concerns that new weight loss drugs from companies such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could chip away at the medical device market for certain procedures. Pharmaceutical business’ growth was mainly driven by the sales of Darzalexa biologic for the treatment of multiple myeloma, along with Erleada, a prostate cancer treatment, and other oncology treatments. The company’s COVID-19 vaccines sales also saw a decline in sales, but mentioned that the company’s success is not dependent on the sales of COVID-19 vaccines.  4Q23 recommended trading range: $145 to $165. Neutral Outlook. 

强生 (JNJ) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：213.5亿美元, 同比增幅6.8%，超预期3.0亿美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.66美元，超预期0.14美元  
  • 23财年指引：营收为836亿至840亿美元，此前预期为832亿至840亿美元，市场预期为845.2亿美元；预估每股收益为10.07至10.13美元，预估为10.00至10.10美元，市场预期为10.03美元。
  • 短评：该公司在8月份从消费者健康业务分拆出来后，公布了一系列强劲的业绩。由于制药和医疗设备业务的销售额激增，该公司上调了全年预期。MedTech本季度销售额为75亿美元，同比增长10.4%。然而，有人担心，礼来(Eli Lilly)和诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)等公司推出的新型减肥药可能会蚕食某些手术的医疗器械市场。医药业务的增长主要是由治疗多发性骨髓瘤的Darzalexa biologic、前列腺癌治疗药物Erleada和其他肿瘤治疗药物的销售推动的。新冠疫苗的销售额也有所下降，但公司的成功并不依赖于新冠疫苗的销售。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：145美元至165美元。中性前景。

Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $1.14B, +34.6% YoY, beating estimates by $30M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.55, beat estimates by $0.04
  • FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided. 
  • Dividend: The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share. This dividend is payable on 14 December, 2023, to shareholders of record as of 1 December, 2023.
  • Comment: The company reported higher revenue and profit as its customer accounts grew by double digits. The company saw its customer accounts increase 21% to 2.43mn, while customer margin loans rose 8% to $43.6bn. Its net interest income during the period surged 55% to $733mn on higher benchmark interest rates and customer credit balance. However, as interest rates are expected to remain high, with the possibility of an additional rate hike, trading volumes might see a decrease in the near term, as investors switch over more to safer instruments such as government bonds and T-bills that offer high returns amidst the higher interest rates environment. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $80 to $90. Neutral Outlook. 

盈透证券 (IBKR) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：11.4亿美元, 同比增幅34.6%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.55美元，逊预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 股息：公司宣布季度现金股息为每股0.10美元。这股息将于2023年12月14日支付给截至2023年12月1日的股东。
  • 短评：该公司公布了更高的收入和利润，其客户账户增长了两位数。该公司的客户账户增长21%，达到243万，而客户保证金贷款增长8%，达到436亿美元。在此期间，由于基准利率和客户信贷余额的上升，其净利息收入飙升55%，达到7.33亿美元。然而，由于利率预计将保持在高位，并有可能进一步加息，短期内交易量可能会减少，因为投资者更多地转向更安全的工具，如政府债券和短期国库券，这些工具在利率较高的环境下提供高回报。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：80美元至90美元。中性前景。

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $14.48B, +12.4% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.65, beat estimates by $0.24
  • 4Q23 Guidance: adjusted EPS of $1.80 per share if its ban on flights to Tel Aviv only lasts through the end of October. However, if it is extended to the end of December, it is $1.50 per share. Consensus is $2.15. The ban on Israel flights is also seen impacting Q4 capacity and operating revenue. Assuming flights resume after the end of the month, Q4 capacity is expected to increase ~15.5% year over year. With the same assumption, operating revenue is projected to increase ~10.5% YoY. If the flights don’t restart until the end of December, those figures are, respectively, 14% and off 9%. rising jet fuel prices would also weigh on Q4 results.
  • Comment: United Airlines Holdings’ profits climbed for the quarter as a result record-high numbers for its international Atlantic and Pacific region flights. Pacific revenue exceeded third-quarter 2019 levels despite capacity remaining 24% below third-quarter 2019, showcasing the strength in the demand for travel. The company is also continuing to see the benefits of its award winner airline loyalty program, setting a record for new enrollments for the quarter and nearly doubling the number of new members versus the same quarter just five years ago However, the company forecasted its FY23 earnings below estimates, reflecting the possible impact coming from the Israel-Hamas war, which will reduce the travel demand from the area, as well as increase the cost of jet fuels for the company.  4Q23 recommended trading range: $37 to $44. Neutral Outlook. 

联合航空 (UAL) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：144.8亿美元, 同比增幅12.4%，超预期7,000万美元
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.65美元，超预期0.24美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：如果飞往特拉维夫的航班禁令只持续到10月底，调整后每股收益为1.80美元。但是，如果延长到12月底，则为每股1.50美元。共识是2.15美元。对以色列航班的禁令也影响了第四季度的运力和营业收入。假设月底后航班恢复，预计第四季度运力将同比增长约15.5%。在同样的假设下，预计营业收入将同比增长约10.5%。如果航班到12月底才恢复，这两个数字分别是14%和9%。航空燃油价格上涨也将拖累第四季度业绩。

短评：由于大西洋和太平洋地区的国际航班数量创历史新高，联合航空公司本季度利润攀升。尽管运力仍比2019年第三季度低24%，但太平洋航空公司的收入超过了2019年第三季度的水平，显示出旅游需求的强劲。该公司还继续看到其屡获大奖的航空公司忠诚度计划的好处，本季度的新注册人数创下了纪录，新会员数量几乎是五年前同一季度的两倍。然而，该公司预测其23财年的收益低于预期，这反映了以色列-哈马斯战争可能带来的影响，这将减少该地区的旅行需求，并增加公司的航空燃料成本。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：37美元至44美元。中性前景。

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