KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 16 April 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Century Aluminium Co. (CENX US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high. 50wEMA is about to cross the 200wEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 17.50, Target 19.10, Stop 16.70

General Mills, Inc. (GIS US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 66.5, Target 71.5, Stop 64.0

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Centurion Corp. Ltd. (CENT SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.860, Target 0.960, Stop 0.810

Riverstone Holdings Ltd. (RSTON SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.790, Target 0.850, Stop 0.760

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CRRC Corp. Ltd. (1766 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since June 2023 with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA just crossed the crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.40, Target 4.80, Stop 4.20
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Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co. Ltd. (3606 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, while RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 41.50, Target 44.90, Stop 39.80

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $41.93B, +9.4% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.63, beat estimates by $0.50
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect full-year net interest income of ~$90B, the same as its prior guidance, but now sees net interest income (NII), excluding markets, of $89B, from its prior outlook of ~$88B; expects adjusted expense to be ~$91B vs. its prior guidance of ~$90B.
  • Comment: JPMorgan delivered robust financial results, yet investors were disappointed by the company’s decision to maintain its guidance unchanged. This came despite the market’s anticipation of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some investors had hoped for an upward revision of JPMorgan’s net interest income guidance by $2bn to $3bn for the year. Despite the company’s strong performance in both consumer and institutional sectors, supported by a resilient U.S. economy, JPMorgan adopted a cautious stance amidst economic uncertainty fueled by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and ongoing effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening. The company anticipates ongoing normalization in both net interest income and credit costs. With inflation proving more persistent than anticipated, delays in Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to bolster the company’s net interest income in the second half of 2024. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Neutral Outlook.

摩根大通(JPM)

  • 24财年第一季营收：419.3亿美元，同比增幅9.4%，超预期2.4亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：4.63美元，超预期0.50美元
  • 24财年指引：预计全年净利息收入约900亿美元，与之前的指引相同，但目前预计净利息收入(NII)(不包括市场)为890亿美元，而此前的预期为约880亿美元；预计调整后的费用约为910亿美元，而此前的指引为900亿美元。
  • 短评：摩根大通公布了强劲的财务业绩，但投资者对该公司维持预期不变的决定感到失望。尽管市场预计美联储今年不会降息，但公司还是做出了上述决定。一些投资者曾希望摩根大通将今年的净利息收入指引上调20亿至30亿美元。尽管在美国经济的支撑下，摩根大通在消费和机构领域表现强劲，但在地缘政治紧张局势、通胀压力和美联储量化紧缩政策持续影响下的经济不确定性下，摩根大通采取了谨慎的立场。该公司预计净利息收入和信贷成本将持续正常化。由于通货膨胀比预期的更持久，美联储推迟降息预计将提振该公司2024年下半年的净利息收入。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：170美至200美元。中性前景。

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $20.86B, +0.6% YoY, beat estimates by $710M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.26, beat estimates by $0.17
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net interest income to be approximately 7% to 9% lower than 2023 level of $52.38bn, unchanged from its previous guidance.
  • Comment: Despite facing challenges such as a decline in net interest income due to higher interest rates affecting funding costs and customer migration to higher-yielding deposit products, Wells Fargo still managed to surpass expectations with its financial results. The company experienced an 8.32% decrease in net interest income, dropping to $12.23bn from $13.34bn in FY2023. However, strategic investments across its franchise led to increased revenue compared to the previous year’s fourth quarter, with noninterest income growth outweighing the anticipated decline in net interest income. Following a trend seen with other financial institutions like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo maintained a conservative guidance outlook for FY24, despite market expectations for an increase in net interest income driven by delays in Federal Reserve rate cuts amid persistent inflationary pressures. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $62. Neutral Outlook.

富国银行(WFC)

  • 24财年第一季营收：208.6亿美元，同比增幅0.6%，超预期7.1亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：1.26美元，超预期0.17美元
  • 24财年指引：预计净利息收入将比2023年的523.8亿美元水平低约7%至9%，与此前的指引保持不变。
  • 短评：尽管面临着一些挑战，比如由于利率上升影响融资成本而导致净利息收入下降，以及客户转向收益更高的存款产品，但富国银行的财务业绩仍超出了预期。该公司净利息收入下降8.32%，从2023财年的133.4亿美元降至122.3亿美元。然而，与去年第四季度相比，其特许经营的战略投资导致收入增加，非利息收入的增长超过了预期净利息收入的下降。继摩根大通等其他金融机构的趋势之后，富国银行维持了对24财年的保守指引前景。尽管市场预期由于持续的通胀压力，美联储将推迟降息，而公司的净利息收入将增加。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：50美至62美元。中性前景。

BlackRock Inc. (BLK)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $4.73B, +11.4% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $9.81, beat estimates by $0.44
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect headcount to be broadly flat in 2024, excluding the impact of Global Infrastructure Partners and related transaction costs; expect a low to mid-single-digit percentage increase in 2024 core general and administration expense.
  • Comment: BlackRock delivered impressive results, surpassing expectations, particularly in performance fees which reached $204mn in 1Q24, driven by increased revenue from alternative products. The company achieved a record Assets Under Management (AUM) of $10.5tn during the same period, buoyed by the uptrend in global equity markets, which bolstered investment advisory and administration fees. The launch of its bitcoin ETF in 1Q24 further contributed to the growth in AUM, with net inflows exceeding $12bn. However, management expects the Federal Reserve likely will still cut interest rates this year but won’t meet its inflation target, which may dampen the stock market’s rally in 1Q24. Going forward, the company will continue to prioritize investments with differentiated organic growth potential or that will expand operating leverage through enhanced scale. Additionally, the company plans to acquire Global Infrastructure, an infrastructure investment firm, in a $12.5bn deal later this year, aiming to capitalize on significant growth prospects in infrastructure, technology, retirement, and holistic portfolio solutions. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $700 to $820. Neutral Outlook.

贝莱德(BLK)

  • 24财年第一季营收：47.3亿美元，同比增幅11.4%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：9.81美元，超预期0.44美元
  • 24财年指引：预计2024年员工人数将基本持平，不包括全球基础设施合作伙伴和相关交易成本的影响;预计2024年核心一般行政费用将以个位数的百分比增长。
  • 短评：贝莱德交出了令人印象深刻的业绩，超出了预期，尤其是在业绩费方面，由于来自另类产品的收入增加，其业绩费在24年第一季度达到2.04亿美元。在全球股市上涨的提振下，该公司同期管理资产达到创纪录的10.5万亿美元，这提振了投资咨询和管理费用。该公司在第一季度推出的比特币ETF进一步推动了资产管理规模的增长，净流入超过120亿美元。不过，管理层预计美联储今年可能仍会降息，但不会达到其通胀目标，这可能会抑制股市在24年第一季度的反弹。展望未来，公司将继续优先考虑具有差异化有机增长潜力的投资，或通过扩大规模来扩大经营杠杆的投资。此外，该公司计划在今年晚些时候以125亿美元的价格收购基础设施投资公司Global Infrastructure，旨在利用基础设施、技术、退休和整体投资组合解决方案方面的显著增长前景。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：700美至820美元。中性前景。

Citigroup Inc. (C)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $21.1B, -1.6% YoY, beat estimates by $700M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.58, beat estimates by $0.41
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue of $80B – $81B, and net interest income ex-markets to be down modestly YoY; FY24 expenses of $53.5B – $53.8B, excluding FDIC special assessment.
  • Comment: Citigroup reported results that surpassed expectations, despite a 4% YoY decline in wealth management revenue to $1.7bn, attributed to reduced net interest income stemming from lower deposit spreads and increased mortgage funding costs. However, the bank remains optimistic about expanding its wealth management business by capturing more wallet share from existing customers over time. Strong growth in banking, USPB, and services sectors mitigated declines in markets and wealth management. Looking ahead, net interest income is expected to normalise as the Federal Reserve postpones rate cuts. The company is also making headway in streamlining its workforce as part of its reorganization strategy, having laid off or notified 7,000 employees, aligning with its goal of reducing staff by 20,000 by 2026. While the company’s net profit fell 27% as the bank took charges related to its reorganization, its management believes that by restructuring the company around five key business lines, Citigroup can unlock additional revenues and enhance services for its clients. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $53 to $65. Neutral Outlook.

花旗集团(C)

  • 24财年第一季营收：211亿美元，同比跌幅1.6%，超预期7.0亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股收益：1.58美元，超预期0.41美元
  • 24财年指引：预计营收为800亿至810亿美元，除市场外的净利息收入将同比小幅下降；24财年费用支出为535亿至538亿美元，不包括美国联邦存款保险公司特别评估。
  • 短评：花旗集团公布的业绩超出预期，尽管财富管理收入同比下降4%至17亿美元，原因是存款息差降低和抵押贷款融资成本增加导致净利息收入减少。不过，对于逐步从现有客户手中夺取更多储蓄份额，汇丰仍对扩大其财富管理业务持乐观态度。银行、储蓄银行和服务行业的强劲增长缓解了市场和财富管理行业的下滑。展望未来，随着美联储推迟降息，预计净利息收入将恢复正常。为了实现到2026年裁减2万名员工的目标，公司已经解雇或通知了7000名员工，作为结构调整战略的一部分，在精简员工方面也取得了进展。虽然由于该行计入了与重组相关的费用，公司的净利润下降了27%，但其管理层认为，通过围绕五个关键业务线进行重组，花旗集团可以释放出额外的收入，并为客户提供更好的服务。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：53美至65美元。中性前景。

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