Technical Analysis – 10 May 2024
United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH US) 
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with increased volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 80.5, Target 90.5, Stop 75.5
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF US)
- Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
- MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 168, Target 188, Stop 158
StarHub Ltd. (STH SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 1.23, Target 1.30, Stop 1.19
Silverlake Axis Ltd. (SILV SP)
- Shares closed above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 0.265, Target 0.285, Stop 0.255
Lenovo Group Ltd (992 HK)
- Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
- MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
- Long – Entry 9.80, Target 10.50, Stop 9.45
China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd (291 HK)
- Shares closed at a 6-month high above the 200dEMA forming a bullish engulfing pattern.
- Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
- Long – Entry 37.40, Target 40.0, Stop 36.1
Roblox Corp (RBLX)
- 1Q24 Bookings: $923.76M, +19.4% YoY, miss estimates by $5.34M
- 1Q24 Revenue: $801.3M, +22% YoY
- 1Q24 GAAP EPS: –$0.43, beat estimates by $0.10
- 2Q24 Guidance: Expects bookings to be between $870M and $900M, below the $902.5M estimate; Expect revenue to be between $855M and $880M, above the $805.2M estimate; Expects to lose between $265M and $267M on a net basis, better than the $345.5M that was expected. FY24 Guidance: Expects bookings to be between $4B and $4.1B, down from a prior outlook of $4.14B to $4.28B; Expect revenue to be between $3.45B and $3.53B, up from a previous range of $3.3B to $3.4B; Expects a net loss between $1.04B and $1.1B, up from a prior view of $1.37B to $1.4B.
- Comment: Roblox disclosed a mixed set of results alongside a tepid guidance, signaling challenges ahead. While the platform experienced a 17% uptick in average daily active users, reaching 77.7 million, it marks the slowest growth rate post-IPO. The subdued guidance suggests a reduction in consumer spending within Roblox’s gaming ecosystem, possibly influenced by economic uncertainties and heightened inflation. Notably, Electronic Arts also issued a lackluster revenue forecast recently, indicating broader industry headwinds. This slowdown in engagement echoes industry-wide trends, prompting actions such as layoffs and studio closures by major players like Sony Group and Microsoft. To diversify revenue streams, Roblox is increasingly turning to digital advertising. It plans to commence forecasting ad revenue in 2025, with expectations for significant contributions to its growth trajectory in 2026 and 2027. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $26 to $34. Negative Outlook.
Roblox (RBLX)
- 24财年第一季预定：9.2376亿美元，同比增幅19.4%，超预期534万美元
- 24财年第一季营收：8.013亿美元，同比增幅22.0%
- 24财年第一季每股亏损：0.43美元，超预期0.1美元
- 24财年第二季指引：预计预订量将在8.7亿美元至9亿美元之间，低于9.025亿美元的预期；预计收入将在8.55亿美元至8.8亿美元之间，高于8.052亿美元的预期；预计净亏损在2.65亿至2.67亿美元之间，好于预期的3.455亿美元。24财年指引：预计预订量在40亿美元至41亿美元之间，低于此前预期的41.4亿美元至42.8亿美元；预计营收将在34.5亿美元至35.3亿美元之间，高于此前的33亿美元至34亿美元；预计净亏损在10.4亿美元至11亿美元之间，高于此前预期的13.7亿美元至14亿美元。
- 短评：Roblox公布了一组好坏参半的业绩和不温不火的指引，预示着未来的挑战。虽然该平台的平均日活跃用户增长了17%，达到7770万，但这是上市后增长最慢的一次。这一低迷的指引表明，可能受到经济不确定性和通胀加剧的影响，Roblox游戏生态系统内的消费者支出有所减少。值得注意的是，艺电最近也发布了黯淡的收入预测，表明行业面临更大的阻力。这种用户粘性的下降反映了整个行业的趋势，促使索尼集团和微软等主要游戏公司采取裁员和关闭工作室等行动。为了使收入来源多样化，Roblox越来越多地转向数字广告。它计划在2025年开始预测广告收入，预计2026年和2027年将对其增长轨迹做出重大贡献。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：24美至34美元。负面前景。
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA)
- 1Q24 Revenue: $165.2M, +223.3%YoY, miss estimates by $15.52M
- 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.26, beat estimates by $1.05
- 2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
- Comment: Marathon Digital Holdings unveiled a nuanced financial report, showcasing both operational hurdles and strategic successes amidst the cryptocurrency surge. Despite operational challenges, the company achieved record earnings, attributed largely to the cryptocurrency boom. This upswing in revenue correlates with a significant spike in hash rate, surging by 142% year-over-year to 27.8 EH/s, representing 28% of total Bitcoin production by miners, equivalent to 2,811 BTC. Notably, Marathon sold 26% of its produced Bitcoin during the quarter, utilizing the proceeds to cover operating expenses. The company also rolled out innovative products such as Slipstream, aimed at enhancing Bitcoin transaction speeds, and a control board to bolster mining efficiency, particularly crucial amid supply constraints post-Bitcoin’s halving. Looking forward, rate cut expectations may sustain elevated Bitcoin levels, presenting a favorable landscape for Marathon Digital Holdings. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $25. Neutral Outlook.
Marathon Digital (MARA)
- 24财年第一季营收：1.652亿美元，同比增幅223.3%，逊预期1,552万美元
- 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.26美元，超预期1.05美元
- 24财年第二季指引：不提供指引。
- 短评： Marathon Digital发布了一份细致入微的财务报告，展示了在加密货币激增期间的运营障碍和战略成功。尽管面临运营挑战，但该公司实现了创纪录的盈利，这主要归功于加密货币的繁荣。这种收入的增长与哈希率的显著飙升有关，哈希率同比飙升142%，达到27.8 EH/s，占矿工比特币总产量的28%，相当于2811个BTC。值得注意的是，Marathon在本季度售出了其生产的比特币的26%，并将收益用于支付运营费用。该公司还推出了旨在提高比特币交易速度的Slipstream等创新产品，以及提高挖矿效率的控制板，这在比特币价格减半后供应紧张的情况下尤为重要。展望未来，降息预期可能会维持比特币的高位，这对马拉松数字控股公司来说是一个有利的前景。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：15美至25美元。中性前景。
Unity Software Inc (U)
- 1Q24 Revenue: $460.38M, -8.0%YoY, beat estimates by $26.86M
- 1Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.75, miss estimates by $0.08
- 2Q24 Guidance: Expect strategic revenue to $420M to $425M vs. consensus of $443.22M, down -6% to -7% YoY. Expect adjusted EBITDA to $75M to $80M for the total company.
- FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue guidance of $1.76B to $1.80B vs. consensus of $1.81B, which would represent an increase of 2% to 4% YoY and $400M to $425M in Adjusted EBITDA for the total company. Expect to exit 2024 with Adjusted EBITDA margins over 25%.
- Comment: Unity Software reported mixed first quarter results, with GAAP losses at US$0.75 per share, missing analyst estimates, but quarterly sales hitting US$460mn, surpassing expectations. Create Solutions revenue rose 17% YoY to US$133mn, driven by subscriptions and partnerships, while Grow Solutions revenue fell 4% YoY to US$294mn. Interim CEO Jim Whitehurst highlighted meeting expectations and finishing portfolio adjustments, focusing on revenue growth with favourable margins. Unity announced Matthew Bromberg as CEO, effective 15 May, with Whitehurst becoming Executive Chair and Roelof Botha Lead Independent Director. Short-term outlook includes confidence in plans and optimism in gaming’s future. For the current quarter, it provided revenue estimates of between US$420mn to US$425mn below consensus of US$443.33mn and for FY24 the company expects revenue to range between US$1.76bn to US$1.80bn below consensus of US$1.81bn Unity aims for sustainable value through engine, cloud, and monetization, emphasizing subscription growth and improved monetization performance, as well as integrating Create and Grow for comprehensive service to game customers. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $22 to $28. Neutral Outlook.
Unity (U)
- 24财年第一季营收：4.6038亿美元，同比跌幅8.0%，超预期2,686万美元
- 24财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.75美元，逊预期0.08美元
- 24财年第二季指引：预计战略收入为4.2亿至4.25亿美元，而市场预期为4.4322亿美元，同比下降6%至7%。预计整个公司调整后的EBITDA为7,500万美元至8,000万美元。
- 24财年指引：预计营收指引为17.6亿至18.8亿美元，而市场预期为18.1亿美元，这意味着公司整体调整后EBITDA同比增长2%至4%，调整后EBITDA增长4亿至4.25亿美元。预计2024年结束时，调整后的EBITDA利润率将超过25%。
- 短评：Unity软件公布了喜忧参半的第一季度业绩，GAAP每股亏损0.75美元，低于分析师预期，但季度销售额达到4.6亿美元，超出预期。受订阅和合作伙伴关系的推动，Create Solutions的收入同比增长17%，达到1.33亿美元，而Grow Solutions的收入同比下降4%，至2.94亿美元。临时首席执行官吉姆·怀特赫斯特(Jim Whitehurst)强调要达到预期并完成投资组合调整，重点关注利润有利的收入增长。Unity宣布Matthew Bromberg为首席执行官，5月15日生效，Whitehurst成为执行主席，Roelof Botha成为首席独立董事。短期前景包括对计划的信心和对游戏未来的乐观。对于当前季度，该公司提供的收入估计在4.2亿美元至4.25亿美元之间，低于共识的4.433亿美元;对于24财年，该公司预计收入将在17.6亿美元至18.8亿美元之间，低于共识的18.1亿美元。Unity的目标是通过引擎，云和货币化实现可持续价值，强调订阅增长和改善货币化表现，以及整合创造和增长，为游戏客户提供综合服务。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：22美至28美元。中性前景。
