Technical Analysis – 1 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Home Depot, Inc. (HD US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 284, Target 300, Stop 276

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI US)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 103, Target 113, Stop 98

Sheng Siong Group Ltd. (SSG SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.53, Target 1.63 Stop 1.48

COSCO Shipping International (Singapore) (COS SP)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 0.115 Target 0.125 Stop 0.110

Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with an increase in volume.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 44, Target 48, Stop 42

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (1093 HK)

Shares tested the 200dEMA and closed below it with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 6.70, Target 7.20, Stop 6.45

Pfizer Inc (PFE)

3Q23 Revenue: $13.2B, -41.6% YoY, miss estimated by $230M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.17, beat estimates by $0.17
FY23 Guidance: Reaffirm revenue of $58.0B to $61.0B vs. the consensus of $59.82B and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.45 to $1.65 vs. the consensus of $1.59. Non-COVID operational revenue growth expectation of 6% to 8%.
Comment: The company reported a net loss for the quarter as revenue arising from COVID-19 shrank. The company mentioned that it recorded a $5.6bn charge for inventory write-offs in the third quarter due to lower-than-expected use of Covid products. The company also reiterated its FY23 guidance, which is drastically lower than its original forecasts due to weakening demand for its Covid products. As a result of the decline of COVID-19, the company has to adopt a cost-cutting strategy of around $3.5bn. The company is expected to continue to face more headwinds as demand for COVID-19 products declines even further. Excluding COVID-19 products, revenue grew 10% YoY, fueled by a new vaccine against the respiratory syncytial virus. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $28 to $35. Neutral Outlook.

辉瑞 (PFE)

23财年第三季营收：132亿美元, 同比跌幅41.6%，逊预期2.3亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.17美元，超预期0.17美元
23财年指引：重申营收为580亿至610亿美元，市场预期为598.2亿美元；调整后稀释每股收益为1.45至1.65美元，市场预期为1.59美元。与新冠不相关的运营收入增长预期为6%至8%。
短评：由于新冠肺炎带来的收入萎缩，该公司报告本季度净亏损。该公司提到，由于新冠产品的使用低于预期，公司在第三季度记录了56亿美元的库存冲销费用。该公司还重申了其23财年的指引，由于对其新冠产品的需求减弱，该指引大大低于其最初的预测。由于新冠感染的下降，该公司不得不采取约35亿美元的成本削减战略。随着对新冠产品的需求进一步下降，预计该公司将继续面临更多的阻力。在抗呼吸道合胞病毒新疫苗的推动下，不包括新冠产品，收入同比增长10%。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：28美元至35美元。中性前景。

Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

3Q23 Revenue: $16.8B, +12.0% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.52, beat estimates by $0.73
4Q23 Guidance: Anticipate slightly higher sales as compared to the prior year. Price should remain favourable, expect sales to users to continue to support good underlying growth, though, changes in dealer inventories should act as an offset. FY23 Guidance: expect to be slightly above the targeted range for adjusted operating profit margin, based on our expected sales levels. It expects Machinery, Energy and Transportation free cash flow to exceed its $4bn to $8bn target range for the full year. It continues to execute its strategy for long-term profitable growth.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, as the company’s sales rose from higher prices and more shipments of equipment to their customers. Construction equipment demand has been resilient as the U.S. upgraded its roads, railways and other transportation infrastructure under a $1 trillion package approved by Congress in 2021 under the Biden administration. However, the company’s dealer inventories rose for the 3rd consecutive quarter and order backlog shrunk, showing signs of slowing machinery demand. However, the management mentioned that the dealer inventories for construction equipments are usually between a 3-4 months range, and there are still areas where dealers are likely to add more inventory. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $205 to $250. Neutral Outlook.

卡特彼勒 (CAT)

23财年第三季营收：168亿美元, 同比增幅12.0%，超预期2.4亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.52美元，超预期0.73美元
23财年第四季指引：与去年相比，预计销售额会略高。价格应保持有利，预计面向用户的销售将继续支撑良好的潜在增长，不过，经销商库存的变化应会起到抵消作用。23财年指引：基于公司的预期销售水平，预计调整后的营业利润率将略高于目标范围。该公司目前预计，机械、能源和运输业务的全年自由现金流将超过40亿至80亿美元的目标范围。它继续执行其长期盈利增长战略。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，由于价格上涨和向客户运送更多设备，该公司的销售额有所增长。随着美国根据国会在拜登政府领导下于2021年批准的1万亿美元一揽子计划升级了公路、铁路和其他交通基础设施，建筑设备需求一直保持弹性。然而，该公司的经销商库存连续第三季度上升，订单积压减少，显示出机械需求放缓的迹象。但管理层提到，经销商的施工设备库存通常在3至4个月之间，经销商仍有可能增加库存的地方。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：205美元至250美元。中性前景。

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

3Q23 Revenue: $5.8B, +4.1% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.70, beat estimates by $0.02
4Q23 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $6.1bn, plus or minus $300mn ($6.39B consensus). At the mid-point of the revenue range, this represents year-over-year growth of approximately 9% and sequential growth of approximately 5%. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 51.5%.
Comment: The company forecasted a weaker-than-expected guidance for 4Q23, but provided a rosy outlook for 2024. Going forward, the company think that its newest data center chip, the MI300, would be boost for the company to narrow the gap on the competition between Nvidia and itself. The company is betting that a ramp-up of its MI300 chips will give it a piece of the lucrative data center business, as tech firms race to secure power to train their AI models. This is also supported by the company’s recent acquisition of software expert Nod.AI, which will seek to expand the company’s open AI capabilities.The company also expects to sell $2bn of AI Chips in 2024. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $90 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

超微半导体 (AMD)

23财年第三季营收：58.0亿美元, 同比增幅4.1%，超预期1.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.70美元，超预期0.02美元
23财年第四季指引：预计营收约为61亿美元，上下浮动3亿美元（市场预期为63.9亿美元）。在收入区间的中值代表着同比增长约9%，环比增长约5%。Non-GAAP毛利率预计约为51.5%。
短评：该公司对23年第四季度的预测低于预期，但对2024年的前景表示乐观。展望未来，该公司认为其最新的数据中心芯片MI300将有助于该公司缩小与英伟达之间的竞争差距。随着科技公司竞相确保训练人工智能模型的能力，该公司押注MI300芯片的增加将使其在利润丰厚的数据中心业务中分得一杯羹。该公司最近收购了软件专家Nod.AI，也为这一点提供了支持。该公司将寻求扩大该公司的开放式人工智能能力。该公司还预计到2024年人工智能芯片的销售额将达到20亿美元。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：90美元至115美元。中性前景。

First Solar Inc (FSLR)

3Q23 Revenue: $801.09M, +27.4% YoY, miss estimates by $91.25M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.50, beat estimates by $0.46
FY23 Guidance: Maintain revenue guidance and raise the mid-point of EPS guidance from $7.50 to $7.60. Net Sales $3.4B to $3.6B vs $3.50B consensus; EPS $7.20 to $8.00 vs $7.76 consensus. Expected sales backlog of 81.8 GW. the company continues to forecast full-year solar module shipments of 11.8-12.3 GW.
Comment: First Solar reported a profitable third quarter compared to a year ago, citing strong demand for renewable energy. Its high FY23 earnings per share estimate is partially owed to the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which supports clean energy and offers tax credits for US-made panels. The US solar industry is growing, with a projected 32 gigawatts of new production capacity this year, and First Solar’s ytd bookings have risen to 27.8 gigawatts. The company’s cadmium telluride technology, free from reliance on Chinese-made polysilicon, is appealing to solar project developers. Additionally, it has completed its Indian manufacturing facility which can produce 12,000 modules per day. As the demand for clean energy continues to grow, the expansion of production capacity at First Solar will enable the company to supply a greater number of solar panels, ultimately leading to increased sales. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $140 to $165. Positive Outlook.

第一太阳能 (FSLR)

23财年第三季营收：8.0109亿美元, 同比增幅27.4%，逊预期9,125万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：2.5美元，超预期0.46美元
23财年指引：维持营收指引，并将每股收益指引的中值从7.50美元提高到7.60美元。净销售额34亿至36亿美元，预期为35亿美元；每股收益7.20美元至8.00美元，市场预期为7.76美元。预计销售积压81.8吉瓦。该公司继续预测全年太阳能组件出货量为11.8至12.3吉瓦。
短评：由于对可再生能源的强劲需求，第一太阳能公司公布第三季度与去年同期相比实现盈利。该公司对23财年每股收益的高预期部分归功于拜登政府的《通胀削减法案》，该法案支持清洁能源，并为美国制造的太阳能电池板提供税收抵免。美国太阳能产业正在增长，预计今年的新产能将达到320吉瓦，第一太阳能今年的订单已升至27.8吉瓦。该公司的碲化镉技术不依赖中国制造的多晶硅，对太阳能项目开发商很有吸引力。此外，它已经完成了其印度制造工厂，每天可以生产12,000个模块。随着对清洁能源的需求持续增长，第一太阳能公司产能的扩大将使公司能够提供更多的太阳能电池板，最终导致销量的增加。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：140美元至165美元。积极前景。

Cameco Corp (CCJ)

3Q23 Revenue: $575M, +47.8% YoY, beat estimates by $51M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.32, beat estimate by $0.22
FY23 Guidance: Expect consolidated revenues of C$2.43B-C$2.58B (US$1.75B-US$1.86B) after previously forecasting revenues of C$2.38B-C$2.53B, citing higher expected average realized prices under its contract portfolio for the improved outlook.
Comment: Cameco showed strong Q3 performance, which saw net earnings rise to C$148mn, compared to a year-ago loss of C$20mn, along with a 48% increase in revenue. The company’s uranium and fuel services segments outperformed, with 3mn pounds of uranium produced in Q3 and 7mn pounds sold. Cameco anticipates higher full-year revenue, due to an improved outlook and higher realised prices in its contract portfolio. Additionally, the company has a growing long-term contract pipeline, with positive ytd results in both the uranium and fuel services segments. Moreover, given the recent surge in uranium demand and sustained production growth, Cameco is well-positioned to meet the rising demand for uranium sales. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $38 to $48. Positive Outlook.

卡梅科 (CCJ)

23财年第三季营收：5.75亿美元, 同比增幅47.8%，超预期5,100万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.32美元，超预期0.22美元
23财年指引：预计合并收入为24.3亿至25.8亿加元（17.5亿至18.6亿美元），此前预计营收为23.8亿至25.3亿加元，因其合同组合下的平均实现价格预期较高，前景改善。
短评：公司第三季度表现强劲，净利润上升至1.48亿加元，而去年同期亏损2,000万加元，营收增长48%。该公司的铀和燃料服务部门表现优异，第三季度生产了300万磅铀，销售了700万磅铀。由于前景改善和合同组合的实现价格上涨，公司预计全年收入将增加。此外，该公司还拥有不断增长的长期合同管道，在铀和燃料服务领域均取得了今年以来的积极成果。此外，考虑到近期铀需求的激增和产量的持续增长，公司在满足日益增长的铀销售需求方面处于有利地位。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：38美元至48美元。积极前景。