KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 22 April 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC US) A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a 2 month high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 37.4, Target 40.0, Stop 36.1

Campbell Soup Co (CPB US)

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  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 43.8, Target 46.6, Stop 42.4

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RH PetroGas Ltd. (RHP SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.172, Target 0.184, Stop 0.166

Dyna-Mac Holdings Ltd. (DMHL SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since August 2023 with constructive volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 0.415, Target 0.440, Stop 0.400

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Cosco Shipping Holdings Co. Ltd. (1919 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since May 2023 with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 8.80, Target 9.40, Stop 8.50
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Orient Overseas (International) Ltd. (3328 HK)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 101, Target 111, Stop 96

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $18.87B, +12.9% YoY, beat estimates by $860M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPADR: $1.38, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect second-quarter revenue to be between $19.6 billion and $20.4 billion.
  • Comment: TSMC reported robust results driven by sustained strong demand for advanced chips, particularly those utilized in AI applications. The company anticipates a potential sales increase of up to 30% in 2Q24, propelled by the surge in demand for semiconductors powering AI technologies. TSMC expects its business to benefit from robust demand for its leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, although this could be partly offset by ongoing seasonal fluctuations in the smartphone market. Despite these dynamics, the company maintains its capital spending plans for the year within the range of $28bn to $32bn and reiterates its expectation for 2024 revenue to grow in the low- to mid-20% range in U.S. dollar terms, anticipating a more gradual recovery for the fiscal year. Although some of the company’s wafers were affected by the recent earthquake in Taiwan, TSMC projects that most of the lost production will be recovered in the second quarter, with the impact on revenue expected to be minimal.2Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $150. Neutral Outlook.

台积电(TSM)

  • 24财年第一季营收：188.7亿美元，同比增幅12.9%，超预期860万美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股收益：1.38欧元，超预期0.06美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计第二季度营收将在196亿至204亿美元之间。
  • 短评：台积电公布了强劲的业绩，这得益于对先进芯片(尤其是用于人工智能应用的芯片)的持续强劲需求。该公司预计，在为人工智能技术提供动力的半导体需求激增的推动下，24年第二季度的销售额可能增长30%。台积电预计其业务将受益于对其领先的3纳米和5纳米技术的强劲需求，尽管这可能部分被智能手机市场持续的季节性波动所抵消。尽管如此，该公司仍将其今年的资本支出计划维持在280亿至320亿美元的范围内，并重申其对2024年收入(以美元计算)增长20%至20%的预期，预计本财年的复苏将更加缓慢。虽然该公司的一些晶圆受到最近台湾地震的影响，但台积电预计，大部分损失的产量将在第二季度恢复，对收入的影响预计很小。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：115美至150美元。中性前景。

Blackstone Inc. (BX)

  • 1Q24 Distributable EPS: $0.98 (+1% YoY), beat estimates by $0.01
  • 1Q24 Total AUM: Total AUM of $1,061.3bn (+0.1% YoY), increasing by $34bn in 1Q24.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Blackstone declares variable dividend of $0.83/share quarterly dividend, down from the prior dividend of $0.94; Forward yield 2.7%; Payable May 6; for shareholders of record April 29; ex-div April 26.
  • Comment: Blackstone exceeded expectations with its financial results, driven by strong performance in its credit strategies. The alternative asset manager increased its Assets Under Management (AUM) by $34 billion in the first quarter of 2024, primarily fueled by growth in its credit strategies. The delayed rate cut environment is also likely to continue to bolster the company’s credit strategies. Management observes a growing momentum in the company’s private credit and private wealth businesses, alongside a bolstering transaction environment and attractive opportunities for capital deployment. As capital markets reopen, Blackstone has intensified its activity, deploying $24.5 billion during the quarter, more than double the investments made in the same period of 2023. However, the company also acknowledges that it is still in the early stages of recovery, and anticipates that it will take time for Private Equity (PE) firms to distribute cash to investors. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Positive Outlook.

黑石集团(BX)

  • 24财年第一季可分配每股收益：0.98美元，同比增幅1%，超预期0.01美元
  • 24财年第一季管理资产总规模：1.0613万亿美元，同比增幅0.1%，其中本财年第一季度增加340亿美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 24财年第一季度股息：黑石宣布季度股息为每股0.83美元，低于之前的0.94美元;远期收益率2.7%；5月6日为付息款；4月29日为供股东登记日；四月二十六日为除息日。
  • 短评：受信贷策略强劲表现的推动，黑石的财务业绩超出预期。这家另类资产管理公司在2024年第一季度将其管理下的资产增加了340亿美元，主要是由于其信贷策略的增长。推迟降息的环境也可能继续支持该公司的信贷策略。管理层注意到公司私人信贷和私人财富业务的增长势头，以及有利的交易环境和有吸引力的资本配置机会。随着资本市场重新开放，黑石加大了投资力度，本季度部署了245亿美元，是2023年同期投资额的两倍多。然而，该公司也承认，它仍处于复苏的早期阶段，并预计私募股权公司将需要一段时间才能向投资者分发现金。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：115美至130美元。积极前景。

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $9.11B, +14.3% YoY, beat estimates by $880M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.52, beat estimates by $0.47
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect Consolidated revenues of approximately $36.7 billion to $37.7 billion vs. $36.75B consensus; Homes closed by homebuilding operations of 89,000 homes to 91,000 homes; Income tax rate of approximately 23.5% to 24.0%.
  • 2Q24 Dividend: D.R. Horton declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.82%; Payable May 9; for shareholders of record May 2; ex-div May 1.
  • Comment: D.R. Horton delivered robust results and raised its fiscal year 2024 outlook, benefiting from the persistent shortage of housing supply, which has bolstered sales. The company experienced a 14% increase in net sales orders to 26,456 homes and a 17% rise in value to $10.1bn. Both new and existing homes at affordable price points remain scarce, and favorable demographics continue to support housing demand despite elevated inflation and mortgage interest rates. However, the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate recently climbed to a four-month high of 7.13%, potentially indicating a more challenging path to recovery for the residential real estate market. This could pose some demand-side challenges for the company in the near term. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

霍顿房屋(DHI)

  • 24财年第二季营收：91.1亿美元，同比增幅14.3%，超预期8.8亿美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：3.52美元，超预期0.47美元
  • 24年指引：预计综合收入约为367亿至377亿美元，而预期为367.5亿美元；房屋建筑业务关闭的房屋数量为8.9万至9.1万户；所得税率约为23.5%至24.0%。
  • 24财年第二季度指引：公司宣布每股0.30美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期收益率0.82%；5月9日为付息日；5月2日为股东登记日；5月1日为除息日。
  • 短评：霍顿房屋公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了2024财年的预期，这得益于住房供应的持续短缺，这提振了销售。该公司的净销售订单增长了14%，达到26,456套，价值增长了17%，达到101亿美元。价格可承受的新房和现房仍然稀缺，尽管通胀和抵押贷款利率上升，有利的人口结构仍在继续支持住房需求。然而，美国30年期抵押贷款利率最近攀升至7.13%的四个月高点，这可能表明住宅房地产市场的复苏之路更具挑战性。这可能会在短期内给该公司带来一些需求方面的挑战。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：130美至160美元。积极前景。

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $9.37B, +14.8% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.28, beat estimates by $0.76
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect Revenue of $9.49B vs $9.28 consensus; EPS of $4.68 vs $4.54 consensus; Forecast revenue growth of 16%. FY24 Guidance: Expect healthy revenue growth of 13% to 15%; expects FY24 operating margin of 25%.
  • Comment: Netflix announced impressive results, achieving its strongest first-quarter customer additions since the onset of the pandemic and solidifying its position as the leading global streaming platform. With a remarkable increase of 9.33mn subscribers during the quarter, Netflix reached a record high of 269.6mn subscribers, showcasing the effectiveness of its efforts to address password sharing. However, the company cautioned that it will cease reporting key subscriber numbers starting next year, prompting Wall Street to shift its focus to revenue and profit rather than user growth. This change may indicate a potential slowdown in Netflix’s second wave of subscriber growth resulting from its crackdown on password sharing, reflecting the company’s maturity. Despite this, Netflix is expanding into new territories such as sports and video games while continuing to license content from rival media firms to enhance profitability. Moreover, the company continues to leverage its global presence, maintaining a robust pipeline of new shows. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $560 to $640. Neutral Outlook.

奈飞(NFLX)

  • 24财年第一季营收：93.7亿美元，同比增幅14.8%，超预期9,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：5.28美元，超预期0.76美元
  • 24年第二季度指引：预计营收94.9亿美元，预期为9.28亿美元；每股收益4.68美元，市场预期为4.54美元；预计收入增长16%。24财年指引：预计收入将健康增长13%至15%；预计24财年营业利润率为25%。
  • 短评：公司公布了令人印象深刻的业绩，实现了自疫情爆发以来最强劲的第一季度客户增长，巩固了其作为全球领先流媒体平台的地位。奈飞的用户数量在本季度显著增加了933万，达到了2.696亿的历史新高，这表明该公司在解决密码共享问题上的努力是有效的。然而，该公司警告称，将从明年开始停止报告关键用户数量，这促使华尔街将注意力转向收入和利润，而不是用户增长。这一变化可能表明，奈飞因打击密码共享而导致的第二波用户增长可能放缓，反映出该公司的成熟度。尽管如此，奈飞正在向体育和视频游戏等新领域扩张，同时继续从竞争对手的媒体公司获得内容授权，以提高盈利能力。此外，该公司继续利用其全球影响力，保持强劲的新节目渠道。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：560美至640美元。中性前景。

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $1.89B, +11.8% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.50, beat estimates by $0.08
  • 2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Intuitive Surgical delivered impressive results, fueled by growth in da Vinci procedure volume and an expansion of the installed base of systems. Worldwide da Vinci procedures increased by approximately 16% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The company saw a 14% rise in its da Vinci surgical system installed base, reaching 8,887 systems as of March 31, 2024, compared to 7,779 systems at the end of the first quarter of 2023. Intuitive Surgical obtained Food and Drug Administration clearance for its da Vinci 5 system a month ago and subsequently placed eight new systems within two weeks after clearance, potentially generating significant new demand in the near term. The demand for Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci surgical system is expected to remain robust as healthcare providers seek to enhance their physicians’ capabilities to achieve better patient outcomes. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $365 to $420. Positive Outlook.

直觉外科(ISRG)

  • 24财年第一季营收：18.9亿美元，同比增幅11.8%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.5美元，超预期0.08美元
  • 24年第二季度指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：在达芬奇手术数量的增长和系统安装基础的扩大的推动下，公司取得了令人印象深刻的业绩。与2023年第一季度相比，全球达芬奇手术增加了约16%。该公司的达芬奇手术系统安装基数增长了14%，截至2024年3月31日达到8,887套，而截至2023年第一季度末为7,779套。一个月前，直觉外科的达芬奇5系统获得了美国食品和药物管理局的批准，并在批准后的两周内投放了8套新系统，这可能会在短期内产生巨大的新需求。对于公司的达芬奇手术系统的需求预计将保持强劲，因为医疗保健提供者寻求提高他们的医生的能力，以实现更好的患者治疗效果。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：365美至420美元。积极前景。

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