Technical Analysis – 16 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive and RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 10.0, Target 12.0, Stop 9.0

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
MACD is positive and RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 97, Target 107, Stop 92

UOL Group Ltd. (UOL SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 6.30, Target 6.60, Stop 6.15

Frasers Property Ltd. (FPL SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 0.820, Target 0.860, Stop 0.800

MMG Ltd (1208 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 2.24, Target 2.40, Stop 2.16

Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd (358 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an incline in volume.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 11.0, Target 11.8, Stop 10.6

Target Corp. (TGT)

3Q23 Revenue: $25.4B, -4.2% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.10, beat estimates by $0.62
4Q23 Guidance: expects comparable sales in a wide range around a mid-single digit decline, and GAAP and Adjusted EPS of $1.90 to $2.60 vs. the consensus of $2.24.
Comment: The company saw a decline in comparable sales for the quarter, but still beat sales and earnings expectations, with purchases in high-frequency categories like food and beauty helping to prop up weaker customer spending. The company’s efforts in its management of inventory and expenses also proved to be fruitful. The company highlights that consumer spending still faces challenges, with consumers focusing on necessities only. The retail industry also saw a slowdown as consumers chose to to spend on experiences instead. While the company still expects next quarter sales to be around the same level, the company displayed YoY improvements in sales as well as its inventory management and expenses. With interest rates at their peak, consumer sentiments are likely to improve in the near term to drive sales for the company. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $120 to $150. Positive Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

23财年第三季营收：377亿美元, 同比跌幅3.0%，超预期7,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：3.81美元，超预期0.05美元
23财年指引：缩小其先前的指导范围：销售额和可比销售额与22财年相比下降3%至4%，而预计同比增长2.90%。营业利润率在14.2%至14.1%之间。税率约为24.5%。利息支出约为18亿美元。与22财年相比，摊薄后每股收益下降9%至11%，预计同比下跌9.28%。
短评：该公司当季销售额下滑，突显出消费者一直在缩减大额消费，并推迟重大家居装修项目。虽然销售额在下降，但盈利仍好于预期，显示出业务和消费者需求的弹性。与第二季度一样，该公司提到，客户在较小项目上的参与度仍然很高，但在某些大额、非必需类别上仍然面临压力。随着上调利率达到顶点，消费需求有望很快好转。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：295美元至320美元。积极前景。

JD.Com, Inc. (JD)

3Q23 Revenue: $34B, +1.7% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.92, beat estimates by $0.11
FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results as they focused on price competitiveness and operating efficiency. The company’s focus on driving demand with lower prices and cutting cost to improve margins has shown signs of paying off, with its 9M23 operating margin at 4.3% compared to 4.0% a year ago. China’s retail sales beat growth in October amidst a weak economy, showcasing the resilience of consumer spending. The company also saw record-breaking numbers of transaction and order volume, as well as user engagement, over its Singles Day promotion earlier this year. The upcoming festive seasons is also likely to boost consumer spending as well. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $24 to $38. Positive Outlook.

东海集团 (SE)

23财年第三季营收：33亿美元, 同比增幅3.1%，超预期9,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股亏损：0.26美元，逊预期0.26美元
23财年指引：不提供指引。
短评：由于消费仍然停滞不前，来自阿里巴巴和抖音的竞争加剧，该公司公布了本季度的亏损。该公司将加大对Shopee和直播的投资，以对抗这些吸引年轻购物者的平台。Tiktok最近退出印尼电子商务市场，也可能为东南亚的业务提供一些支持。该公司预计，通过激励和营销支出来吸引购物者和直播者，营收将在最后一季加速增长，但成本也将加剧，因为该公司专注于夺回失去的市场份额，并抓住年终购物需求。公司的另一项大业务——以Garena为中心的游戏部门，由于缺乏新的大游戏，在2023年迅速萎缩。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：30美元至45美元。中性前景。

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)

1Q24 Revenue: $14.67B, +7.6% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.11, beat estimates by $0.08
2Q24 Guidance: Revenue: $12.6bn to $12.8bn; Earnings per Share: GAAP: $0.59 to $0.64; Non-GAAP: $0.82 to $0.84. FY24 Guidance: Revenue: $53.8bn to $55.0bn. Earnings per Share: GAAP: $2.97 to $3.08; Non-GAAP: $3.87 to $3.93
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, but issued a gloomy forecast for the current quarter and the full fiscal year. The company announced its plans to acquire analytics software maker Splunk for $28bn. The company also highlighted that new product orders slowed down during the quarter as clients are more focused on installing and implementing products after a strong delivery last quarter. Sales cycles are longer than expected, and the company forecasts 1 to 2 quarters worth of shipped products still waiting to be implemented. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Negative Outlook.

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.9B, +21.8% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.38, beat estimates by $0.22
2Q24 Guidance: Expect total billings in the range of $2.335bn to $2.385bn, representing YoY growth of between 15% and 18%. Total revenue in the range of $1.955bn to $1.985bn, vs. consensus of $1.97B, representing YoY growth of between 18% and 20%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $1.29 to $1.31, vs. consensus of $1.25, using 339mn to 342mn shares outstanding. FY24 Guidance: Total billings in the range of $10.7bn to $10.8bn, representing YoY growth of between 16% and 17%. Total revenue in the range of $8.15bn to $8.20bn, vs. consensus of $8.19B, representing YoY growth of between 18% and 19%. Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 26% to 26.5%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $5.40 to $5.53, vs. consensus of $5.34, using 338mn to 343mn shares outstanding. Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 37% to 38%.
Comment: Palo Alto Networks fell short of Wall Street estimates for billings in Q1 even though it beat revenue and EPS estimates. The company revised its full-year fiscal billings forecast downwards to $10.7bn to $10.8bn from the previous $10.9bn to $11bn. The shift in Palo Alto’s strategy towards software over hardware, focusing on AI and cloud computing trends, has been impacted by increased costs and challenges in duration discussions with customers. The company also recently acquired Israeli startups Talon Cyber Security and Dig Security Solutions for over $1bn to enhance its data security capabilities. Despite a large number of cybersecurity attacks happening, there has been difficulty in achieving billings due to the negotiation process with customers regarding costs. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $236 to $243. Neutral Outlook.

Xpeng Inc. (XPEV)

3Q23 Revenue: $1.17B, +25.0% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: -$0.44, beat estimates by $0.02
4Q23 Guidance: Expects deliveries of vehicles to be between 59,500 and 63,500, representing a YoY increase of approximately 101.2% to 114.7%. Total revenues to be between RMB12.7bn and RMB13.6bn, representing a YoY increase of approximately 86.1% to 99.3%.
Comment: Xpeng reported a larger-than-expected operating loss for Q3, driven by costs associated with production expansion. The quarterly operating loss was 3.16 bn yuan, exceeding analysts’ estimates. Xpeng anticipates deliveries in Q4 to double to a range of 59,500 to 63,500, focusing on its G6 SUV to compete with Tesla’s Model Y. The company expects Q4 revenue between 12.7bn yuan and 13.6bn yuan, surpassing estimates. Despite efforts, smaller Chinese EV makers like Xpeng face challenges in competing with Tesla locally due to significant production and launch costs. Even with a jump in car sales volume, the company has not been able to match its costs to become profitable, which may be concerning for some investors. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $15 to $19. Neutral Outlook.

TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)

3Q23 Revenue: $13.3B, +9.3% YoY, beat estimates by $230M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.03, beat estimates by $0.04
4Q23 Guidance: comparable sales seen rising +3% to +4% vs. +3.9% and EPS expected to be $0.97 to $1.00 vs. $1.13 consensus. FY23 Guidance: expects full-year comparable store sales to be up 4% to 5%. Full-year EPS is seen landing in a range of $3.61 to $3.64 vs. the prior range of $3.56 to $3.62. FY24 Guidance: Increase outlook for overall comp store sales and diluted earnings per share.
Share repurchase: expects to repurchase approximately $2.25B to $2.50B billion of stock in 4Q23.

Comment: TJX delivered Q3 results above analyst estimates. However, it forecasted Q4 profit below expectations due to escalating costs impacting margins. TJX has been experiencing steady demand driven by bargain-seeking customers, but is facing challenges from supply chain and wage-related costs. Despite its Q4 EPS forecast reduction, the company raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts, anticipating a relatively strong holiday season amid a cost-of-living crisis. Being an off-price retailer we anticipate that it will be able to attract more shoppers hunting for a good bargain during the holiday season with its premium branded merchandise and low prices. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $89 to $93. Positive Outlook.