KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 5 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 215, Target 235, Stop 205

Adobe Inc. (ADBE US)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-weeks high.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 630, Target 690, Stop 600

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Keppel Ltd. (KEP SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 7.24, Target 7.60, Stop 7.06

Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 23 with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 5.72, Target 6.10, Stop 5.53

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PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.66, Target 6.00, Stop 5.49

L’Occitane International SA (973 HK)

  • Shares closed at a 5-month high, above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 25.6, Target 27.8, Stop 24.5

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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $3.33B, +28.1% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.25, beat estimates by $0.12
  • FY24 Guidance: Expected adjusted EPS forecasted to be $9.50 – $9.70, with net yields expected to increase 5.25% to 7.25% in Constant Currency. Record start to WAVE season with higher booked load factors and rates. Capacity to be up 8.5% compared to FY23 and almost twice as many drydock days compared to FY23, reducing APCD growth by 1% and resulting in more pronounced capacity growth in Q1 and Q3. APCDs expected to grow around 10% in Q1 and Q3, 5% in Q2 and 8% in Q4,
  • Comment: Royal Caribbean reported exceptional performance in FY23, exceeding expectations with a 13.5% increase in net yields compared to 2019. The focus on cost structure reshaping and innovation contributed to strong financial results, with adjusted earnings per share more than doubling the January guidance. The momentum continues into FY24, with a record-breaking start to the Wave Season, significant capacity growth of 8.5% YoY and robust bookings across all key products. The company anticipates a 40% growth in earnings in 2024, accelerating progress towards its trifecta goals. This year Royal Caribbean remains committed to advancing its commercial capabilities, ensuring sustained customer satisfaction, and championing sustainability initiatives that align with the company’s overarching long-term profitability objectives. The Red Sea situation is being closely monitored to ensure the safety of its guest and crew, the company has repositioned crusies scheduled in the region and rerouted other routes alongside contingency plans for the quarters ahead. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $127 to $135. Positive Outlook.

波音(BA)

  • 23财年第四季营收：220.2亿美元, 同比增幅10.2%，超预期9.4亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.47美元，超预期0.32美元
  • 24财年指引：由于737 Max 9危机，暂无指引。2025年至2026年目标实现1,000亿美元的营收，每年交付约800架飞机，自由现金流达到100亿美元。
  • 短评：波音报告的季度亏损比预期小，营收和自由现金流均好于预期。公司高管重申了2025-2026年的财务目标，力争自由现金流约100亿美元和每月737生产50架飞机。最近涉及737 MAX飞机的空中舱板爆炸事件引起了更多监管审查，影响了生产和市场份额。尽管面临挑战，波音将继续要求其737供应商保持较高产能，并愿意持有更多的库存，以帮助一些供应商赶上当前的产能提升。公司首席执行官强调了公司对质量的承诺，并表示在需要时愿意减缓以解决问题。MAX飞机安全问题继续给波音的复苏带来不确定性。投资者应密切关注国家运输安全委员会对MAX安全问题的调查，以获取进一步更新。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：190美至230美元。中性前景。

Apple Inc (AAPL)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $119.6B, +2.1% YoY, beat estimates by $1.34B
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.18, beat estimates by $0.07
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue of about $90bn and iPhone sales of around $46bn, vs Wall Street expectations of nearly $96bn in revenue and iPhone sales of $50bn. The decline would be due to the expected slowdown in sales demand from China.
  • Comment: Despite concerns, Apple’s Q1 sales and profit surpassed analysts’ targets, led by a 6% growth in iPhone sales to $69.70 billion, driven by the iPhone 15 lineup. The company’s services business, including Apple TV+, music, iCloud, and the App Store, rose 11% to $23.12 billion. Apple’s wearables segment, encompassing AirPods and Apple Watch, generated $11.95 billion in sales, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, it forecasts a Q2 decline in iPhone sales, targeting an overall revenue $6bn below Wall Street expectations due to challenges in its China business. Apple CEO cited increased competition in the Chinese smartphone market, driven by foldable phones and Huawei’s devices, which are powered by a China-made chip. Apple reported sales in China for the December quarter at $20.82bn, missing analyst estimates of $23.53bn. The company anticipates a revenue drop of at least $5bn in the current quarter compared to a year ago, attributing the decline to a longer replacement cycle and challenges in China’s seasonality. The CEO also highlighted the “huge opportunity” of generative AI, emphasizing ongoing internal efforts, with plans to discuss it publicly later this year. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $180 to $190. Neutral Outlook.

诺和诺德(NVO)

  • 23财年第四季营收：658.6亿丹麦克朗, 同比增幅37.0%
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：4.91丹麦克朗美元
  • 24财年指引：预计销售额将以不变汇率（CER）增长18%至26%，运营利润预计以CER增长21%至29%。财务项目（净额）约为丹麦克朗13亿，资本支出（PPE）约为丹麦克朗450亿。折旧、摊销和减值损失约为丹麦克朗100亿，而自由现金流（不包括业务发展的影响）预计在丹麦克朗640亿至740亿之间。
  • 短评：诺和诺德报告了2023年强劲的营收和盈利，销售额同比增长31%（在不变汇率下增长36%）达到丹麦克朗2,323亿。公司的减肥药Wegovy和糖尿病药Ozempic对销售增长有着显著的贡献。全年运营利润在克朗计算增长了37%，在不变汇率下增长了44%。诺和诺德预计2024年销售额在不变汇率下将增长18%至26%，主要受到Wegovy和Ozempic强劲需求的推动。首席执行官对肥胖市场的竞争表示欢迎，预计随着每周注射量的增加，Wegovy的价格将下降，并强调公司对患者护理的承诺。公司承认其供应链面临增加的压力，但仍在投资扩大生产能力以满足不断增长的需求。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：105美至125美元。积极前景。

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $170B, +13.9% YoY, beat estimates by $3.74B
  • 4Q23 EPS: $1.00, beat estimates by $0.20
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Net sales are expected to be between $138.0bn and $143.5bn vs $142.17bn consensus, or to grow between 8% and 13% compared with 1Q2023. This guidance anticipates a favorable impact of approximately 40bp from foreign exchange rates. Operating income is expected to be between $8.0bn and $12.0bn, compared with $4.8bn in 1Q2023. This guidance includes approximately $0.9bn lower depreciation expense due to an increase in the estimated useful life of our servers beginning on January 1, 2024.
  • Comment: Amazon exceeded expectations with stronger-than-anticipated results, surpassing projections in both its Amazon Web Services (AWS) and advertising businesses. This success was fueled by a record-breaking Holiday shopping season, culminating in a robust performance throughout 2023. Rebounding consumers’ confidence in Jan 2024 is also likely to provide a boost to Amazon’s business in the near term. The company’s emphasis on cost reduction and increased profitability was evident in measures such as the layoff of 27,000 employees from late 2022 to mid-2023 and cuts across various business units. Although the growth rate in AWS has moderated due to businesses trimming their cloud spending, there is significant interest in AWS’ generative artificial intelligence products, including “Q,” an AI chatbot designed for businesses. Amazon is optimistic that its generative AI services could contribute “tens of billions of dollars” in revenue over the next several years. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $160 to $190. Positive Outlook.

万事达(MA)

  • 23财年第四季营收：620.2亿美元, 同比增幅13.0%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.18美元，超预期0.10美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：万事达卡报告了强劲的业绩，作为支付处理器，受益于假日购物季节中消费者支出的坚挺。然而，该公司的运营费用也出现了增加，主要归因于人员成本的上升。随着消费者信心自2021年7月以来的最高水平回升，公司可能在短期内看到交易量的增加。对经济实现“软着陆”的期望以及美联储降息的赌注也鼓励了大宗购买和更多的旅行。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：435美至480美元。积极前景。

Meta Platforms Inc (META)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $40.11B, +24.7% YoY, beat estimates by $940M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $5.33, beat estimates by $0.39
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects its 2024 first-quarter revenue to be in the range of $34.5 billion to $37 billion, ahead of analyst expectations of $33.9 billion for the current quarter.
  • Dividend: Meta Platforms declares its first ever quarterly dividend of $0.50/ share dividend; Forward yield 0.51%; Payable March 26; for shareholders of record Feb.22; ex-div Feb 21. The company announced a $50bn increase in share repurchase authorization today.
  • Comment: Meta reported its best quarterly sales growth in over two years and initiated its first-ever dividend, underlining the impact of its investments in artificial intelligence on smarter targeted ads, with advertising revenue comprising 96.5% of its Q4 2023 revenue. Facebook’s daily active user base grew to 2.11 billion in Q4, up from 2.09 billion in Q3, and the overall daily active users across Meta’s apps reached 3.19 billion, compared to 3.14 billion in the previous quarter. These positive results reflect the tech industry’s overall strength, driven by increased interest in AI and a resurgence in spending on digital advertising and technology. Companies, having streamlined operations during the post-pandemic tech slump starting in 2021, are now emerging as leaner and more profitable entities. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $420 to $500. Positive Outlook.

高通(QCOM)

  • 24财年第一季营收：99.2亿美元, 同比增幅5.0%，超预期4.1亿美元
  • 23财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.75美元，超预期0.38美元
  • 24财年指引：预计调整后每股收益介于1.73美元至1.93美元之间，营收介于89亿美元至97亿美元。根据伦敦证券交易所（LSEG）的共识预期，每股收益为2.25美元，营收为93亿美元。
  • 短评：高通发布了强劲的业绩，仅在12月季度便发货66.9亿美元的手机芯片，同比增长16%，标志着智能手机市场在两年下滑后出现了积极的转机。该公司与三星签订了旗舰机型Galaxy S24的芯片供应协议，强调了全球合作伙伴关系。管理层指出在经历了2023年的挑战后，Android市场已经趋于稳定。除了智能手机，作为智能手机行业的主要参与者，高通还积极将其芯片技术应用于诸如个人电脑、汽车和虚拟现实头显等多样化市场。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：140美至170美元。积极前景。

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