Technical Analysis – 28 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Western Digital Corp. (WDC US)

Shares closed at a high since Feb23 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA, and 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 41.0, Target 45.0, Stop 39.0

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 70.5, Target 76.5, Stop 67.5

Thai Beverage PC (THAIBEV SP)

Shares closed at a 2-month high with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 0.590, Target 0.620 Stop 0.575

PropNex Ltd (PROP SP)

Shares broke out of the consolidation and closed at a two-month high with rising volumes. The 20dEMA was about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 1.04 Target 1.10, Stop 1.01

Wynn Macau Ltd. (1128 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 8.20, Target 9.00, Stop 7.80

Hainan Meilan International Airport Co. Ltd. (357 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 10.8, Target 11.8, Stop 10.3

Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (RCL)

2Q23 Revenue: $3.52B, +61.5% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.82, beat estimates by $0.24
3Q23 Guidance: Net yield is expected to increase 13.5% to 14.0% in constant currency (14.0% to 14.5% as reported), compared to 3Q19. Adjusted EPS for 3Q23 is expected to range from $3.38 to $3.48. 2023 outlook: Net yield is expected to increase 11.5% to 12.0% in constant currency and as reported, compared to 2019. Adjusted EPS is expected to range from $6.00 to $6.20.
Comment: The company increased its guidance by 33%, anticipating continued robust travel demand. Several countries have experienced tourist levels similar to pre-pandemic times in recent months, and it is expected that tourism levels will rise further during the second half of 2023, despite challenges such as persistent inflation and high-interest rates. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing tourism levels. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $100 to $130. Positive Outlook.

挪威游轮 (RCL)

23财年第二季营收：35.2亿美元, 同比增幅61.5%，超预期1.1亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：1.82美元，超预期0.24美元
23财年第三季指引：与19年第三季度相比，按固定汇率计算，净收益率预计将增长13.5%至14.0%（报告中为14.0%至14.5%）。23年第三季度调整后的每股收益预计在3.38美元至3.48美元之间。2023年展望：与2019年相比，按固定汇率计算，净收益率预计将增长11.5%至12.0%。调整后的每股收益预计在6.00美元至6.20美元之间。
短评：由于预计旅游需求将持续强劲，该公司将其指引提高了33%。近几个月来，一些国家的旅游水平与大流行前类似，尽管面临持续通货膨胀和高利率等挑战，但预计2023年下半年的旅游水平将进一步上升。该公司处于有利地位，可以利用日益增长的旅游水平。第三季度建议交易区间：100美元至130美元。积极前景。

McDonald’s Corp. (MCD)

2Q23 Revenue: $6.5B, +13.6% YoY, beat estimates by $210M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.17, beat estimates by $0.38
FY23 Guidance: Management expects top-line growth to moderate for 2H23.
Comment: McDonald’s diverse seasonal menu has consistently driven sales throughout various periods of the year, with its recent seasonal drink garnering significant sales volume, thanks to well-executed marketing efforts. The company expects revenue growth to moderate in the second half of the year as signs of easing inflation prompt the burger giant to temper menu prices. The company thinks that costs will remain elevated, customer discretionary spending is limited, and industry traffic is pressured in line with industry trends, and as inflation begins to normalize later in the year, they expect top-line growth to moderate. At the same time, easing inflation rates and increasing consumer confidence will also help to drive more demand for the company as well. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $285 to $305. Neutral Outlook.

麦当劳 (MCD)

23财年第二季营收：65.0亿美元, 同比增幅13.6%，超预期2.1亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.78美元，超预期0.06美元
23财年指引：管理层预计2013年下半年营收增长将放缓。
短评：麦当劳多样化的季节性菜单在一年中的各个时期都持续推动着销售，由于执行得当的营销努力，最近的季节性饮料获得了可观的销量。该公司预计，由于通货膨胀缓解的迹象促使这家汉堡巨头下调菜单价格，今年下半年的收入增长将放缓。该公司认为，成本仍将居高不下，客户可自由支配的支出有限，行业流量受到行业趋势的压力，随着通胀在今年晚些时候开始正常化，他们预计收入增长将放缓。与此同时，通货膨胀率的缓解和消费者信心的增强也将有助于推动对该公司的更多需求。第三季度建议交易区间：285美元至305美元。中性前景。

Mastercard Inc. (MA)

2Q23 Revenue: $6.3B, +14.0% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.89, beat estimates by $0.06
3Q23 Guidance: Management sees tourism and consumer spending to continue to be a tailwind for the company, but the high-interest rate environment might moderate consumer spending for the rest of 2023.
Comment: Consumer spending remained resilient for the current quarter, driving strong revenue and earnings growth for the company. The company saw an increase in transaction volume, as consumer spending increased, alongside the recovery of international travel. The recovery of international travel will continue to be a tailwind for the company, as well as improving consumer confidence, after seeing signs that inflation is slowing. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $380 to $420. Positive Outlook.

万事达 (MA)

23财年第二季营收：63.0亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，超预期1.3亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.89美元，超预期0.06美元
23财年第三季指引：管理层认为旅游业和消费者支出将继续成为公司的推动力，但高利率环境可能会抑制2023年剩余时间的消费者支出。
短评：消费者支出在当前季度保持弹性，推动公司收入和盈利强劲增长。随着消费者支出的增加和国际旅游的复苏，该公司的交易量有所增加。在看到通胀放缓的迹象后，国际旅游的复苏以及消费者信心的改善将继续成为该公司的推动力。第三季度建议交易区间：380美元至420美元。积极前景。

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH)

2Q23 Revenue: $711.12M, +34.1% YoY, miss estimates by $14.86M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.47, beat estimates by $0.20
3Q23 Guidance: Revenue to be within a range of $550M to $600M, which includes shipments of 80 to 100 megawatt hours of IQ batteries. Non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 42.0% to 45.0%. Non-GAAP operating expense to be within a range of $101M to $105M.
Comment: The company issued a lackluster guidance for the third quarter of 2023 due to subdued demand in the U.S., primarily caused by lower electricity prices in states such as Texas and Arizona, which have diminished the appeal of residential solar economics. Additionally, the solar market has been negatively impacted by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening policies, leading to higher borrowing expenses for consumers. However, there is a silver lining for solar firms as Europe is becoming a significant market. The region’s efforts to reduce reliance on the Russian fuel supply chain and expedite its shift to clean energy are driving increased business opportunities for solar companies.3Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $170. Neutral Outlook.

Enphase 能源 (ENPH)

23财年第二季营收：7.1112亿美元, 同比增幅34.1%，逊预期1,486万美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.47美元，超预期0.20美元
23财年第三季度指引：营收将在5.5亿至6亿美元之间，其中包括80至100兆瓦时IQ电池的出货量。Non-GAAP毛利率在42.0%至45.0%之间。Non-GAAP运营费用在1.01亿美元至1.05亿美元之间。
短评：该公司发布了2023年第三季度的暗淡指引，原因是美国需求低迷，主要是由于德克萨斯州和亚利桑那州等州的电价下降，这削弱了住宅太阳能经济的吸引力。此外，太阳能市场受到美联储激进的紧缩政策的负面影响，导致消费者的借贷成本上升。然而，太阳能公司也有一线希望，因为欧洲正在成为一个重要的市场。该地区正在努力减少对俄罗斯燃料供应链的依赖，并加快向清洁能源的转变，这为太阳能公司带来了更多的商机。第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至170美元。中性前景。

First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

2Q23 Revenue: $811M, +30.6% YoY, beat estimates by $91.59M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.59, beat estimates by $0.65
FY23 Guidance: Net Sales $3.4B to $3.6B vs $3.46B consensus; EPS $7.00 to $8.00 vs $7.24 Consensus
Comment: The company announced that it will build its fifth U.S. factory as the Inflation Reduction Act spurs a domestic manufacturing boom, investing as much as $1.1B in the new factory. The company has constantly been investing to ramp up their production level, but demand is still surging, with the company being sold out through 2026. These R&D efforts in its production are likely to drive more profits for the company. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $200 to $250. Positive Outlook.

第一太阳能 (FSLR)

23财年第二季营收：8.11亿美元, 同比增幅30.6%，超预期9,159万美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.59美元，超预期0.65美元
23财年指引：净销售额34亿至36亿美元，预期为34.6亿美元；每股收益7.00 – 8.00美元，市场预期为7.24美元
短评：该公司表示，随着美国《通货膨胀抑制法案》推动国内制造业的繁荣，将在美国建立第5家工厂，投资高达11亿美元。该公司一直在投资提高生产水平，但需求仍在飙升，到2026年，该公司的产品已经售罄。这些研发工作可能会为公司带来更多利润。第三季度建议交易区间：200美元至250美元。积极前景。

Ford Motor Co. (F)

2Q23 Revenue: $42.43B, +11.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.11B
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.72, beat estimates by $0.18
FY23 Guidance: FY2023 guidance for adjusted EBIT to between $11B and $12B, and for adjusted free cash flow to between $6.5B and $7B.
Comment: The company raised its full-year forecast as it saw growth in its commercial and traditional business. The company’s EV business, on the other hand, is taking place more slowly than the company expected, in part because of higher costs. The company signalled that near-term losses in EVs would be more than they expected, and slowed its timeframe for ramping up EV production. The EV price war also makes it hard for the company to gain a competitive edge in the EV market. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $12.5 to $15.0. Neutral Outlook.

福特汽车 (F)

23财年第二季营收：424.3亿美元, 同比增幅11.9%，超预期1.11亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.72美元，超预期0.18美元
23财年指引：23财年调整后息税前利润指引在110亿至120亿美元之间，调整后自由现金流指引在65亿至70亿美元之间。
短评：随着商业和传统业务的增长，该公司上调了全年预期。另一方面，该公司的电动汽车业务发展速度比公司预期的要慢，部分原因是成本较高。该公司表示，电动汽车的短期亏损将超过预期，并推迟了提高电动汽车产量的时间表。电动汽车的价格战也使该公司很难在电动汽车市场上获得竞争优势。第三季度建议交易区间：12美元至15美元。中性前景。

Intel Corp. (INTC)

2Q23 Revenue: $12.9B, -15.7% YoY, beat estimates by $760M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.13, beat estimates by $0.16
3Q23 Guidance: Revenue of approximately $12.9 billion to $13.9 billion vs $13.28B consensus; expecting third-quarter EPS attributable to Intel of $0.04; non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.20 vs. $0.17 consensus.
Comment: After two-quarters of losses, the company has returned to profitability and has an improved outlook for the remainder of 2023. However, they remain cautious as they expect “persistent weakness” in all business segments until the end of the year. The recovery of server chip sales is projected to happen in the fourth quarter. The company highlighted that cloud companies are increasingly prioritizing graphics processors for artificial intelligence over Intel’s central processors. This has resulted in some market share loss (“wallet shift”) for the company’s graphics processing unit chips (GPUs) used in AI applications. Nonetheless, the company is optimistic about the potential for increased demand for its AI chips and data center processors, which could offset the impact of the wallet shift and provide additional opportunities. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $35 to $45. Positive Outlook.

英特尔 (INTC)

23财年第二季营收：129.0亿美元, 同比跌幅15.7%，超预期7.6亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.13美元，超预期0.16美元
23财年第三季指引：营收约为129亿至139亿美元，预期为132.8亿美元；预计第三季度应归属于英特尔的每股收益为0.04美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为0.20美元，市场预期为0.17美元。
短评：在经历了两个季度的亏损之后，该公司已经恢复盈利，并对2023年剩余时间的前景有所改善。然而，他们仍持谨慎态度，因为他们预计，在今年年底之前，所有业务部门都将“持续疲软”。服务器芯片销售有望在第四季度恢复。该公司强调，云计算公司越来越多地优先考虑用于人工智能的图形处理器，而不是英特尔的中央处理器。这导致该公司用于人工智能应用的图形处理单元芯片的一些市场份额损失(“钱包转移”)。尽管如此，该公司对其人工智能芯片和数据中心处理器需求增加的潜力持乐观态度，这可能抵消钱包转移的影响，并提供额外的机会。第三季度建议交易区间：35美元至45美元。积极前景。