Technical Analysis – 26 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF US)

Shares closed at a high since Apr 23 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 17.4, Target 19.4, Stop 16.4

Arcelor Mittal S.A (MT US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. The 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and the 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 28.4, Target 30.4, Stop 27.4

First Resources Ltd (FR SP)

Shares closed above the 200dEMA with an incline in volume. The 20dEMA touched the 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD just turned positive.
Long – Entry 1.51, Target 1.62, Stop 1.45

Rex International Holding Ltd (REXI SP)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 0.184 Target 0.194, Stop 0.179

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. (1378HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed 50dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 6.80, Target 7.40, Stop 6.50

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 20.6, Target 22.6, Stop 19.6

General Motors (GM)

2Q23 Revenue: $44.75B, +25.1% YoY, beat estimates by $2.39B
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.91, beat estimates by $0.08
FY23 Guidance: Net Income expected between $9.3B to $10.7B, compared with a previous outlook of between $8.4B to $9.9B. EBIT-adjusted of $12.0B to $14.0B, compared to a previous outlook of between $11.0B to $13.0B.
Comment: General Motors reported a strong set of results for the quarter, and also raised its outlook for the rest of the year as the company becomes more positive about its sales of EVs for 2H23. However, this can be derailed by a potential strike by United Auto Workers (UAW), which seeks to improve the wages of auto workers and let their skill sets remain more competitive within the industry. Analysts see a 50% chance of the strike happening, which would impact the production of EVs if it occurs. The company also mentioned that it aims to cut its costs by an additional $1B over the next 2 years. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $33 to $43. Neutral Outlook.

通用汽车 (GM)

23财年第二季营收：447.5亿美元, 同比增幅25.1%，超预期23.9亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.91美元，超预期0.08美元
23财年指引：净利润预计在93亿美元至107亿美元之间，而此前的预期在84亿美元至99亿美元之间。调整后息税前利润为120亿至140亿美元，而此前的预期为110亿至130亿美元。
短评：通用汽车公布了本季度的一系列强劲业绩，并上调了对今年剩余时间的指引，因为该公司对今年下半年的电动汽车销售变得更加乐观。然而，这可能会被美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)的潜在罢工所破坏，因为UAW寻求提高汽车工人的工资，让他们的技能在行业内保持更强的竞争力。分析人士认为，罢工发生的可能性为50%，如果发生罢工，将影响电动汽车的生产。该公司还提到，公司的目标是在未来两年再削减10亿美元的成本。第三季度建议交易区间：33美元至43美元。中性前景。

General Electric (GE)

2Q23 Revenue: $16.7B, +18.2% YoY, beat estimates by $1.55B
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.68, beat estimates by $0.22
FY23 Guidance: Organic revenue growth in the low-double-digit range, up from the high-single-digit range; Adjusted EPS of $2.10 to $2.30 ($2.05 consensus), up from $1.70 to $2.00; Free cash flow (FCF) of $4.1 to $4.6 billion, up from $3.6 to $4.2 billion.
Comment: The company experienced a surge in demand for both its jet engines and wind energy turbines in the previous quarter. Currently, it remains focused on its plan to divide its power and renewable-energy sectors into separate entities, namely GE and GE Vernova. The existing renewable-energy business has been negatively impacting GE’s profits and cash flows. Despite the renewable energy operations still incurring losses, the company has successfully reduced costs and is now reaping the benefits of recovering demand, partly fueled by tax incentives implemented in the previous year in Washington. With total travel spending improving 1.4% above May 2022 levels and up 5.5% year-to-date through May 2023, GE’s aerospace business is likely to continue riding on travel recovery driving the demand for its jet engines and windy energy turbines. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Positive Outlook.

通用电气 (GE)

23财年第二季营收：167亿美元, 同比增幅6.1%，超预期1.55亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.68美元，超预期0.22美元
23财年指引：有机收入增长在低两位数范围，高于预测的高个位数范围；调整后每股盈利为2.10美元至2.30美元，市场预期为2.05美元，此前预期的1.70美元至2.00美元区间；自由现金流从36亿美元至42亿美元上升至42亿没美元区间提高至41亿至46亿美元。
短评：上一季度，该公司的喷气发动机和风力涡轮机的需求激增。它仍然专注于将电力和可再生能源部门分拆为独立实体的计划，即通用电气和GE Vernova。现有的可再生能源业务对通用电气的利润和现金流产生了负面影响。尽管可再生能源业务仍在亏损，但该公司已经成功地降低了成本，目前正在从需求复苏中获益，这在一定程度上是由于去年华盛顿实施的税收激励措施。到2023年5月，旅游总支出比2022年5月增长1.4%，年初至今增长5.5%，通用电气的航空航天业务可能会继续受益于旅游复苏，推动对其喷气发动机和风力涡轮机的需求。。第三季度建议交易区间：115美元至130美元。积极前景。

3M (MMM)

2Q23 Revenue: $8.32B, -4.4% YoY, beat estimates by $440M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.17, beat estimates by $0.41
FY23 Guidance: Raised its FY23 adjusted EPS expectations for 2023 to $8.60 to $9.10 vs $8.50 to $9.00 prior and consensus of $8.62. Adjusted total sales growth in the range of -5% to -1%, reflecting adjusted organic sales growth of -3%, which remains unchanged.
Comment: The company delivered impressive financial results for the quarter, benefiting from increased prices and cost-cutting initiatives. While the company acknowledged that the recovery in China has been sluggish and is currently contending with numerous lawsuits related to its utilization of “forever chemicals”, the company has prioritized its focus on faster-growing segments of the business, as well as intensifying its cost-cutting endeavours. These measures are aimed at streamlining operations and are projected to save $700M to $900M before taxes by 2025. A higher level of consumer confidence is also likely to increase the demand for the company’s products for the rest of 2023. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $105 to $120. Positive Outlook.

3M公司 (MMM)

23财年第二季营收：8.32亿美元, 同比跌幅-4.4%，超预期4,400万美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.17美元，超预期0.41美元
23财年指引：调整后每股收益预期上调至8.60美元至9.10美元，此前为8.50美元至9.00美元，市场普遍预期为8.62美元。调整后的总销售增长在-5%至-1%之间，反映了调整后的有机销售增长-3%，这一数字保持不变。
短评：得益于价格上涨和成本削减举措，该公司本季度的财务业绩令人印象深刻。尽管该公司承认，其中国业务复苏一直缓慢，目前正面临与使用“永久化学品”有关的众多诉讼，但该公司已将重点放在增长较快的业务领域，并加大了削减成本的力度。这些措施旨在简化运营，预计到2025年将节省7亿至9亿美元的税前费用。消费者信心的提高也可能在2023年剩余时间内增加对该公司产品的需求。第三季度建议交易区间：103美元至120美元。积极前景。

Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

2Q23 Revenue: $18.32B, +12.3% YoY, beat estimates by $620M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.29, beat estimates by $0.11
FY23 Guidance: Sales of $73.0B – $74.0B ($72.73B consensus), up from $72.0B – $73.0B. Adjusted EPS of $4.95 – $5.05 ($5.02 consensus), up from $4.90 – $5.05. Free cash flow of approximately $4.3B, down from approximately $4.8B.
Comment: RTX reportedly said it recently discovered contamination in the metals used to make some engine parts from 2015 to 2020, requiring the planes to be grounded for inspection. The recall isn’t expected to have an immediate impact on travel because only a fraction of the engine fleet that has flown the most will be inspected over the next six weeks. The company is also expected to incur more costs over the entire period of the inspection. The company cut its 2023 free cash flow outlook by about $500M as a result. Current production of engines is not affected by the contamination and the company sales are still likely to ride on travel recovery going into 2H23. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $80 to $94. Neutral Outlook.

雷神科技 (RTX)

23财年第二季营收：183.2亿美元, 同比增幅12.3%，超预期6.2亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.29美元，超预期0.11美元
23财年指引：销售额为730亿- 740亿美元，市场预期为727.3亿美元，高于此前预测720亿至730亿美元。调整后每股收益为4.95至5.05美元，市场预期为5.02美元，高于此前预测4.90至 5.05美元。自由现金流约为43亿美元，低于之前预期约48亿美元。
短评：据报道，公司最近在2015年至2020年期间用于制造一些发动机部件的金属中发现了污染，要求飞机停飞接受检查。此次召回预计不会对出行产生直接影响，因为在未来六周内，飞行次数最多的发动机中只有一小部分将接受检查。在整个检查期间，该公司预计还会产生更多的成本。因此，该公司将2023年的自由现金流预期下调了约5亿美元。目前发动机的生产并未受到污染的影响，公司的销售仍有可能在下半年依靠旅行复苏。第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至94美元。中性前景。

Spotify S.A. (SPOT)

2Q23 Revenue: $3.51B, +20.11% YoY, miss estimates by $27.36M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: -$1.71, miss estimates by $1.01
3Q23 Guidance: Spotify forecasts 572 million active users for its third quarter, 224 million of them premium subscribers. Additionally, it raised its prices for Spotify premium members.
Comment: The company reported 551 million monthly active users, a 27% jump from a year earlier, 21 million ahead of guidance and a record high for the company. User growth was stronger than expected in all regions, with particular strength in Latin America, and also added more younger, Gen Z listeners. The company attributed its loss mainly to higher royalty cost. The company also increased its subscription price by $1-$2. With the demand for streaming services being inelastic, the company would be able to pass on the higher royalty costs to its customers, without seeing a more than proportionate fall in subscription. With inflation showing signs of easing, the subscription rate is likely to increase going forward. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

Spotify (SPOT)

23财年第二季营收：35.1亿美元, 同比增幅21.11%，逊预期2,736万美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：1.71美元，逊预期1.01美元
23财年第三季指引：Spotify预计第三季度将有5.72亿活跃用户，其中2.24亿为付费用户。此外，它还提高了Spotify高级会员的价格。
短评：该公司报告称，月活跃用户为5.51亿，比去年同期增长27%，比预期高出2,100万，创公司历史新高。所有地区的用户增长都强于预期，尤其是在拉丁美洲，而且还增加了更多年轻的Z世代听众。该公司将其亏损主要归因于更高的版税成本。该公司还将认购价格提高了1至2美元。由于对流媒体服务的需求缺乏弹性，该公司将能够将更高的版税成本转嫁给客户，而不会看到订阅量出现不成比例的下降。随着通胀出现缓和迹象，未来认购率可能会上升。第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至160美元。中性前景。

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

4Q23 Revenue: $56.2B, +8.3% YoY, beat estimates by $710M
4Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.69, beat estimates by $0.14
1Q24 Guidance: Forecast Azure revenue growth of 25%-26% in constant currency, range with a midpoint of $23.45B. Forecast for the segment containing Office was $18.15 billion, compared with analysts’ consensus estimate of $18.08 billion. Microsoft’s increased spending in fiscal 2024, operating profit margins would grow slightly after adjusting for the effects of an accounting rule change. Costs rose sharply as Microsoft built new data centers to support AI, and the company’s capital expenditures would continue rising each quarter throughout fiscal 2024. Only in 2H24, Copilot will be ready for general release and any revenues from the product are likely to happen during that period.
Comment: Azure, the company’s cloud service business saw a growth of 25%-26%, down by 1 percentage point QoQ. Investors remained concerned about whether the company’s cloud service business growth has bottomed and is seeing the impact of cost-cutting strategies by many firms across the market. The company’s revenue increase of 7% for FY23 is also the company’s slowest rate of annual growth since 2017 and investors expected a higher growth rate for the company. Going forward, while inflation rates have shown signs of slowing, many companies are still engaged in cost-cutting strategies to maximise profitability. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $320 to $360. Neutral Outlook.

微软 (MSFT)

23财年第四季营收：562亿美元, 同比增幅8.3%，超预期7.1亿美元
23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.69美元，超预期0.14美元
24财年第一季指引：按固定汇率计算，预计Azure营收将增长25%-26%，中间值为234.5亿美元。包含Office的业务部门预估为181.5亿美元，分析师普遍预估为180.8亿美元。微软2024财年支出的增加，在调整了会计规则变化的影响后，营业利润率将略有增长。随着微软建立新的数据中心来支持人工智能，成本急剧上升，而且在整个2024财年，该公司的资本支出每个季度都将继续上升。直到2024年下半年，Copilot才会准备好全面发布，该产品的任何收入都可能在此期间实现。
短评：微软的云服务业务Azure增长了25%-26%，环比下降了1个百分点。投资者仍然担心该公司的云服务业务增长是否已经触底，以及市场上许多公司削减成本战略的影响。该公司23财年收入增长7%，这也是该公司自2017年以来最慢的年增长率，投资者预计该公司的增长率会更高。展望未来，尽管通胀率已显示出放缓的迹象，但许多企业仍在采取削减成本的战略，以实现盈利能力的最大化。第三季度建议交易区间：320美元至360美元。中性前景。

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

2Q23 Revenue: $74.6B, +7.0% YoY, beat estimates by $1.84B
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.44, beat estimates by $0.10
FY23 Guidance: Its financial results reflect continued resilience in Search, with an acceleration of revenue growth in both Search and YouTube, as well as momentum in Cloud. The company will continue investing for growth, while prioritising its efforts to durably reengineer its cost base company-wide and create capacity to deliver sustainable value for the long term.
Comment: Despite an advertising slowdown affecting social media companies, Google’s core search business remains resilient despite the rising prominence of generative AI. Despite competition from Microsoft and OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s search product continues to dominate the market, while its own chatbot, Bard, is still gaining traction. Moreover, Google’s cloud unit surpassed expectations, becoming a strategic growth area as the demand for computing infrastructure rises with the industry’s focus on AI. This shows strength in Google’s business strategy amidst headwinds in the markets, as well as cost-cutting strategies by customer companies to maximise profits. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $125 to $145. Positive Outlook.

谷歌 (GOOG)

23财年第二季营收：746亿美元, 同比增幅7.0%，超预期18.4亿美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.44美元，超预期0.10美元
23财年指引：财务业绩反映了搜索业务的持续弹性，搜索和YouTube的收入增长都在加速，云业务的增长势头也很强劲。公司将继续投资增长，同时优先考虑在全公司范围内重新设计其成本基础，并创造长期可持续价值的能力。
短评：尽管广告业务放缓影响了社交媒体公司，并且生成式人工智能竞争日益突出，但谷歌的核心搜索业务仍保持弹性。尽管有来自微软和OpenAI的ChatGPT的竞争，谷歌的搜索产品仍在市场上占据主导地位，而它自己的聊天机器人巴德(Bard)仍在获得关注。此外，随着业界对人工智能的关注，对计算基础设施的需求上升，谷歌的云计算部门超出了预期，成为一个战略增长领域。这显示了谷歌在市场逆风中的商业战略实力，以及客户公司为实现利润最大化而采取的削减成本战略。第三季度建议交易区间：125美元至145美元。积极前景。

Visa Inc. (V)

3Q23 Revenue: $8.1B, +12.0% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.16, beat estimates by $0.04
4Q23 Guidance: Expect 4Q net revenue growth of around 10% in nominal dollars with minimal impact from exchange rate shifts; expect incentives as a percent of gross revenues to be between 27.5% to 28.5% to finish the year at the high end of the 26.5% to 27.5% range; deliver low double-digit net revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth in fiscal year ’23 despite concerns about a slowdown and an exchange rate drag.
Comment: The company saw an increase in transaction volume, as consumer spending increased, alongside the recovery of international travel. The company highlights that while U.S. transactions saw an 8% growth YoY, ticket sizes were down 2% resulting in a 6% increase in U.S. payment volume, which equates to a relatively slow growth for Visa. The recovery of international travel will continue to be a tailwind for Visa, as well as improving consumer confidence, after seeing signs that inflation is slowing. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $230 to $250. Positive Outlook.

威士 (V)

23财年第三季营收：81亿美元, 同比增幅12.0%，超预期4,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.16美元，超预期0.04美元
23财年第四季指引：以名义美元计算，预计第四季度净收入增长约10%，受汇率变动影响最小；预计奖励占总营收的比例将在27.5%至28.5%之间，年底将达到26.5%至27.5%区间的高端；尽管担心经济放缓和汇率拖累，但预期在23财年实现低两位数的净收入增长和15%左右的每股收益增长。
短评：随着消费者支出的增加和国际旅游的复苏，该公司的交易量有所增加。该公司强调，虽然美国的交易量同比增长了8%，但交易价格下降了2%，导致美国支付量增长了6%，这相当于Visa的增长相对较慢。在看到通胀放缓的迹象后，国际旅游的复苏将继续成为Visa的推动力，消费者信心也将不断增强。。第三季度建议交易区间：230美元至250美元。积极前景。

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN)

2Q23 Revenue: $4.53B, -13.1% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.87, beat estimates by $0.10
3Q23 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $4.36B to $4.74Bvs $4.59B consensus and earnings per share between $1.68 and $1.92 vs $1.91 consensus. The company continue to expect our 2023 effective tax rate to be about 13% to 14%.
Comment: The company gave a lukewarm earnings forecast for the current period, indicating that a slump in demand for key types of electronics is dragging on. The company saw weakness across their end markets with the exception of automotive, showing that even the high demand for AI did not offset the weakness in the markets. The company’s customers outside of the automotive market continue to cut orders of new chips, relying on existing stockpiles instead. Despite a demand crisis, the company said it will continue ramping up supply even at the cost of its profit margin, to support long-term demand and create a “geopolitically dependable capacity”. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $165 to $190. Neutral Outlook.

德州仪器 (TXN)

23财年第二季营收：45.3亿美元, 同比跌幅13.1%，超预期1.6亿美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.87美元，超预期0.10美元
23财年指引：预期营收在43.6亿美元至4.74亿美元之间，预期为45.9亿美元；每股收益在1.68美元至1.92美元之间，预期为1.91美元。公司继续预计2023年的有效税率约为13%至14%。
短评：该公司对当期的盈利预测不温不火，表明对关键类型电子产品的需求下滑仍在持续。该公司认为，除了汽车之外，其终端市场都表现疲软，这表明即使对人工智能的高需求也无法抵消市场的疲软。该公司汽车市场以外的客户继续削减新芯片订单，转而依赖现有库存。尽管存在需求危机，但该公司表示，将继续增加供应，以支持长期需求，并创造“地缘政治上可靠的产能”，即使以牺牲利润率为代价。第三季度建议交易区间：165美元至190美元。中性前景。