Technical Analysis – 22 March 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Citigroup, Inc. (C US)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 61, Target 67, Stop 58

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS US)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 410, Target 424, Stop 403

DBS Bank Ltd. (DBS SP)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 35.5, Target 36.9, Stop 34.8

United Overseas Bank Ltd. (UOB SP)

Shares closed at a month’s high with constructive volume.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 29.2, Target 30.0, Stop 28.8

Pop Mart International Group Ltd (9992 HK)

Shares closed at a high since July 2022 above the 5wEMA with a jump in volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 27.0, Target 29.6, Stop 25.7

L’Occitane International SA (973 HK)

Shares closed at a high since January 2022 above the 5wEMA.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 30.4, Target 32.2, Stop 29.5

Accenture PLC (ACN)

2Q24 Revenue: $15.8B, -0.1% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.77, beat estimates by $0.10
3Q24 Guidance: Expect 3Q24 revenue in the range of US$16.25bn to US$16.85bn, compared with an estimate of US$17.01bn. FY24 Guidance: Expect full-year revenue growth of 1% to 3% in local currency, compared to a prior forecast of 2% to 5%; GAAP operating margin of 14.8%; adjusted operating margin of 15.5%; GAAP EPS of $11.41 to $11.64, and adjusted EPS of $11.97 to $12.20 vs $12.24 consensus, and compared to a prior forecast of $11.97 to $12.32.
Comment: Accenture released a mixed set of results and adjusted its revenue forecast for FY2024 downward, attributing this adjustment to client spending cuts on consulting services amidst economic uncertainty. Management emphasized the company’s continued leadership in generative AI, securing $1.1 billion in new bookings during the first half of the year. Furthermore, Accenture recently disclosed its acquisition of Flo Group, aimed at enhancing its supply chain logistics capabilities in Europe. Nevertheless, the company has faced challenges due to subdued demand for its IT and consulting services, influenced by factors such as elevated interest rates and a volatile economic landscape, prompting clients to exercise caution in their expenditures. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $330 to $370. Neutral Outlook.

埃森哲(ACN)

24财年第二季营收：158亿美元，同比跌幅0.1%，逊预期4,000万美元
24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.77美元，逊预期0.10美元
24财年第三季指引：预计第三季度收入在162.5亿美元至168.5亿美元之间，而预期为170.1亿美元。24财年指引：以当地货币计算，预计全年收入增长1%至3%，此前预测为2%至5%；GAAP营业利润率为14.8%；调整后营业利润率15.5%；GAAP每股收益为11.41美元至11.64美元；调整后的每股收益为11.97美元至12.20美元，而市场预期为12.24美元，而此前的预测为11.97美元至12.32美元。
短评：埃森哲发布了一组喜忧参半的业绩，并下调了2024财年的收入预测，将这一调整归因于客户在经济不确定性下削减咨询服务支出。管理层强调了该公司在生成式人工智能领域的持续领导地位，今年上半年获得了11亿美元的新订单。此外，埃森哲最近披露了对Flo集团的收购，旨在增强其在欧洲的供应链物流能力。然而，由于受到利率上升和经济形势动荡等因素的影响，对其IT和咨询服务的需求下降，促使客户在支出方面保持谨慎，该公司面临着挑战。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：330美至370美元。中性前景。

Nike Inc (NKE)

3Q24 Revenue: $12.43B, +0.3% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.98, beat estimates by $0.23
4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be up slightly, compared to estimates of up 2%. FY24 Guidance: Reiterate its sales outlook for FY2024; expect revenue to grow by 1%, in line with expectations of up 1.1%, excluding restructuring charges.
Comment: Nike reported better-than-expected results, with slower sales growth in China during its holiday quarter offset by stronger-than-anticipated performance in North America and price adjustments. Sales in other global markets fell short of expectations. The company emphasized ongoing comprehensive restructuring efforts aimed at achieving cost reductions of approximately $2 billion over the next three years. Additionally, Nike anticipates gross margins to expand from 1.6 percentage points to 1.8 percentage points, attributed to strategic price hikes, lower ocean freight rates, decreased product input costs, and enhanced supply chain efficiency. However, these gains are tempered by increased markdowns, reduced benefits from Nike’s channel mix, and currency exchange challenges. In the context of a high-interest rate environment, consumer spending on discretionary items like apparel and footwear remains subdued, adding further pressure on Nike’s performance. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $105. Neutral Outlook.

耐克(NKE)

24财年第三季营收：124.3亿美元，同比增幅0.3%，超预期1.3亿美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.98美元，超预期0.23美元
24财年第四季指引：该公司预计营收将略有增长，而此前的预期是增长2%。24财年指引：重申了2024财年的销售前景；预计收入增长1%，符合增长1.1%的预期，不包括重组费用。
短评：耐克公布了好于预期的业绩，假日季在中国的销售增长放缓，被北美市场强于预期的业绩和价格调整所抵消。在全球其他市场的销量不及预期。该公司强调正在进行的全面重组努力，旨在在未来三年内实现约20亿美元的成本削减。此外，耐克预计毛利率将从1.6个百分点扩大到1.8个百分点，这归因于战略性价格上涨、海洋运费降低、产品投入成本降低以及供应链效率的提高。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：90美至105美元。中性前景。

FedEx Corp (FDX)

3Q24 Revenue: $21.7B, -2.3% YoY, miss estimates by $380M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.86, beat estimates by $0.38
FY24 Guidance: Expect a low-single-digit percentage decline in revenue year over year; Earnings per diluted share of $15.65 to $16.65 before the mark-to-market (MTM) retirement plans accounting adjustments, compared to the prior forecast of $15.35 to $16.85 per diluted share; Earnings per diluted share of $17.25 to $18.25 before the MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments after also excluding costs related to business optimization initiatives, compared to the prior forecast of $17.00 to $18.50 per diluted share; Permanent cost reductions from the DRIVE transformation program of $1.8B; Effective tax rate of approximately 25% prior to the MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments; and Capital spending of $5.4B, compared to the prior forecast of $5.7B, with a priority on investments to improve efficiency, including fleet and facility modernization, network optimization, and automation.
Share repurchase: Plan additional $500mn share repurchase in Q4. The board of directors authorised a new $5bn share repurchase program.
Comment: FedEx’s third quarter earnings per share exceeded Wall Street expectations, reaching US$3.86 compared to an estimated US$3.46. Despite slightly missing sales estimates at US$21.7bn, FedEx CEO highlighted progress in restructuring the company’s delivery networks, resulting in permanent cost reductions of US$1.8bn and improved operating income and margins. The company’s turnaround efforts have been particularly evident in its Express division, benefiting from lower structural costs despite disruptions caused by severe winter weather in January. FedEx announced plans to repurchase US$5bn worth of its shares as part of its cost-cutting efforts, which have contributed to increased profits for the courier company. FedEx also narrowed its profit forecast for the fiscal year alongside the additional buyback plan, which supplements its existing US$600mn initiative from 2021. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $280 to $320. Positive Outlook.

联邦快递(FDX)

24财年第三季营收：217亿美元，同比跌幅2.3%，逊预期3.8亿美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.86美元，超预期0.38美元
24财年指引：预计营收同比将出现较低的个位数百分比下降；按市值计算(MTM)退休计划会计调整前的摊薄每股收益为15.65美元至16.65美元，而此前的预测为15.35美元至16.85美元；在扣除与业务优化计划相关的成本后，MTM退休计划会计调整前的摊薄每股收益为17.25美元至18.25美元，而此前的预测为17.00美元至18.50美元；DRIVE改造项目带来的永久性成本降低18亿美元；MTM退休计划会计调整前的有效税率约为25%；资本支出为54亿美元，而之前的预测为57亿美元，优先投资于提高效率，包括车队和设施现代化，网络优化和自动化。
股票回购：计划在第四季度再回购5亿美元股票。董事会批准了一项新的50亿美元股票回购计划。
短评：联邦快递第三季度每股收益超过华尔街预期，达到3.86美元，高于预期的3.46美元。尽管销售额略低于预期，为217亿美元，但联邦快递首席执行官强调，该公司在重组快递网络方面取得了进展，导致永久性成本降低18亿美元，营业收入和利润率有所提高。该公司的扭亏为盈努力在其快递部门尤为明显，尽管1月份严冬天气造成业务中断，但该部门受益于较低的结构性成本。联邦快递宣布，计划回购价值50亿美元的股票，作为其削减成本努力的一部分，此举有助于提高该快递公司的利润。联邦快递还下调了本财年的利润预期，同时推出了额外的回购计划，这是对其2021年起6亿美元回购计划的补充。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：280美至320美元。积极前景。

Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU)

4Q23 Revenue: $3.21B, +15.9% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
4Q23 GAAP EPS: $5.29, beat estimates by $0.26
1Q24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be in the range of $2.175B to $2.200B vs. consensus of $2.26B, representing 9% to 10% growth. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be between $2.35 and $2.40 vs. consensus of $2.55 for the quarter. This assumes a tax rate of 29.0% to 29.5%. FY24 Guidance: Expect net revenue to be in the range of $10.700B to $10.800B vs. consensus of $10.94B, representing growth of 11% to 12%, or 10% to 11% excluding the 53rd week of 2024. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be $14.00 to $14.20 vs. consensus of $14.29 for the year. This assumes a tax rate of approximately 30%.
Comment: Lululemon Athletica beat fourth quarter revenue and profit estimates. International net revenue surged 54%, outpacing a more modest 12% increase in sales in the Americas. The company provided a disappointing sales outlook for the first quarter and full year. The company expects net revenue for the current fiscal year to be between US$10.7bn and US$10.8 bn, reflecting growth of 11% to 12%, falling short of analysts’ expectations. Challenges in the US market were highlighted by the CFO, citing a slower start to the year. Despite this, performance in other markets remained strong. However, the company’s performance, while slowing in recent quarters, continues to grow by double digits, a feat notable in the apparel industry where many competitors have reported declines. Lululemon plans to expand internationally, particularly in China, and diversify its product offerings to include accessories, footwear, and men’s apparel alongside its core women’s activewear. The company aims to achieve a net revenue of US$12.5bn by 2026 through e-commerce expansion and increased sales in international markets and men’s apparel. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $400 to $480. Neutral Outlook.

露露柠檬(LULU)

23财年第四季营收：32.1亿美元，同比增幅15.9%，超预期1,000万美元
23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：5.29美元，超预期0.26美元
24财年第一季指引：预计净收入在21.75亿至22.2亿美元之间，预期为22.6亿美元，增长9%至10%。摊薄后的每股收益预计在2.35美元至2.40美元之间，而本季度的普遍预期为2.55美元。假设税率为29.0%至29.5%。24财年指引：预计净收入在107亿至108亿美元之间，市场预期为109.4亿美元，增长率为11%至12%，不包括2024年第53周，增长率为10%至11%。摊薄后的每股收益预计为14.00美元至14.20美元，而市场预期为14.29美元。假设税率约为30%。
短评：露露柠檬公司第四季度营收和利润均超过预期。国际净营收飙升54%，超过了美洲销售额12%的温和增长。该公司提供了令人失望的第一季度和全年销售前景。该公司预计本财年的净收入将在107亿至108亿美元之间，反映出11%至12%的增长，低于分析师的预期。这位首席财务官强调了美国市场的挑战，称今年开局放缓。尽管如此，其他市场的表现依然强劲。然而，该公司的业绩虽然在最近几个季度有所放缓，但仍保持着两位数的增长，这在服装行业值得注意，因为许多竞争对手都报告了业绩下滑。露露柠檬计划进行国际扩张，特别是在中国，并将其产品多样化，除了核心的女性运动服外，还包括配饰、鞋类和男装。该公司的目标是通过电子商务扩张和增加国际市场和男装的销售额，到2026年实现125亿美元的净收入。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：400美至480美元。中性前景。