KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 19 March 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Target Corp. (TGT US)

  • Shares closed at a higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 166, Target 180, Stop 159

Kroger Co. (KR US)

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 56.0, Target 60.0, Stop 54.0

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Sembcorp Industries Ltd. (SCI SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.08, Target 5.48, Stop 4.88

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd. (ST SP)

  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with constructive volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 2.48, Target 2.58, Stop 2.43

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Meitu Inc. (1357 HK)

  • Shares closed at a high since Jan 2024 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA and 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 3.50, Target 3.90, Stop 3.30

Chinasoft International Ltd. (354 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA and 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.45, Target 6.05, Stop 5.15

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Dollar General Corp (DG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $9.9B, -3.4% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.83, beat estimates by $0.10
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales growth in the range of approximately 6.0% to 6.7% vs estimate of 4.4% growth. Same store sales growth in the range of 2.0% to 2.7%. Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $6.80 to $7.55 and capital expenditure to be in the range of $1.3bn to $1.4bn. Annual per-share profit between $6.80 and $7.55, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $7.55.
  • Comment: Dollar General surpassed revenue and profit forecasts for the quarter, crediting CEO strategies like bolstering store staff and expanding private-label brands for its success. However, the company faces margin pressure as customers prioritize essential items over discretionary goods. Its CFO highlighted inflation’s impact on spending habits and warned of increased promotional markdowns. Gross profit margins declined to 29.5% from 30.9% YoY, with annual profit projected below analysts’ expectations. Despite this, Dollar General is aggressively expanding, planning to open 800 stores and remodel 1,500 this year, leveraging nearly 20,000 stores to capitalize on consumers’ price sensitivity. The company is combating challenges like retail shrinkage through initiatives to add more perishable items to its offerings. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $140 to $170. Neutral Outlook.

达乐(DG)

  • 23财年第四季营收：99亿美元，同比跌幅3.4%，超预期1.2亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.83美元，超预期0.10美元
  • 24财年指引：预计净销售额增长约为6.0%至6.7%，而预期增长为4.4%。同店销售额增幅在2.0%至2.7%之间。稀释后每股收益约为6.80美元至7.55美元，资本支出在13亿美元至14亿美元之间。每股年度盈利为6.80至7.55美元，分析师平均预期为7.55美元。
  • 短评：达乐公司第二财季的营收和利润都超出了预期，公司的成功要归功于首席执行官加强门店员工和扩大自有品牌等战略。然而，由于消费者优先考虑必需品而非非必需品，该公司面临利润率压力。该公司首席财务官强调了通胀对消费习惯的影响，并警告称，促销活动的降价幅度将加大。毛利率从上年同期的30.9%降至29.5%，年度利润预计低于分析师的预期。尽管如此，达乐公司仍在积极扩张，计划今年新开800家门店，改造1500家门店，利用近2万家门店，充分利用消费者对价格的敏感性。该公司正在通过在其产品中增加更多易腐商品的举措来应对零售萎缩等挑战。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：140美至170美元。中性前景。

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $303.8M, +4.1% YoY, miss estimates by $33.31M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPADS: $0.81, miss estimates by $0.06
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect 350,000 net new paying clients by FY24, with contributions expected from new markets like Japan, Canada, and Malaysia. Anticipated a 10% to 20% decrease in customer acquisition costs compared to FY23. Expect mid to high single-digit headcount growth, focusing on international market expansion and R&D enhancement, and no cost-income ratio guidance provided due to revenue volatility.
  • Comment: Futu Holdings reported a significant increase in paying clients during Q4, surpassing 1.7mn, reflecting a 15% YoY growth. This growth was primarily driven by robust client acquisition in Singapore and the successful launch of the moomoo app in Japan, ranking among the top three in daily downloads. Despite a slowdown in Hong Kong, Q1 showed signs of rebound, and the company focused on acquiring quality clients in the US, resulting in a 30% increase in average asset balance. Futu expanded its brokerage business to Malaysia, attracting over 30,000 clients within a week. The company expects to add 350,000 net new paying clients in FY24. Total client assets grew by 16% YoY to HKD486bn, while total trading volume decreased by 12% YoY. Futu participated as joint book runners in several Hong Kong IPOs and announced a new share repurchase program. Looking ahead, Futu targets further expansion into markets like Japan, Canada, and Malaysia, anticipating decreased customer acquisition costs and focusing on international market expansion and R&D enhancement. Despite some challenges, including market sentiment fluctuations and lower interest income, Futu remains optimistic about its growth prospects. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

富途控股(FUTU)

  • 23财年第四季营收：3.038亿美元，同比增幅4.1%，逊预期3,331万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.81美元，逊预期0.06美元
  • 24财年指引：预计到2024财年将新增35万付费客户，其中包括日本、加拿大和马来西亚等新市场。与23财年相比，预计客户获取成本将下降10%至20%。预计员工人数将以中位数至高的个位数增长，专注于国际市场扩张和研发增强，由于收入波动，不提供成本收入比指导。
  • 短评：富图控股报告称，第四季度付费客户数量大幅增加，超过170万，同比增长15%。这一增长主要是由于在新加坡获得了强劲的客户，以及在日本成功推出了moomoo应用程序，该应用程序在日下载量中排名前三。尽管香港业务放缓，但第一季度出现反弹迹象，公司专注于在美国获得优质客户，导致平均资产余额增加30%。富途将经纪业务扩展到马来西亚，一周内吸引了3万多名客户。该公司预计，2024财年将净增35万新付费客户。客户总资产同比增长16%至4860亿港元，而总交易量同比下降12%。富途作为联合簿记管理人参与了几宗香港IPO，并宣布了一项新的股票回购计划。展望未来，富途的目标是进一步拓展日本、加拿大、马来西亚等市场，预计将降低获客成本，并专注于国际市场拓展和研发提升。尽管面临一些挑战，包括市场情绪波动和利息收入下降，但富途仍然对其增长前景持乐观态度。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：50美至70美元。中性前景。

Weibo Corp (WB)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $463.7M, +3.5% YoY, beat estimates by $7.4M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.31, miss estimates by $0.19
  • 1Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Dividend: Approved a special cash dividend of $200mn
  • Comment: Weibo Corporation reported fourth-quarter earnings with a revenue beat. Despite falling short of analyst EPS estimates, the company’s revenue reached US$463.7mn, exceeding expectations and demonstrating a 3% increase YoY. The company’s CEO attributed the strong performance to enhanced product competitiveness and operating efficiency, particularly in the advertising business. Investors responded positively to the revenue beat, reflecting confidence in the company’s monetization efforts and operational effectiveness. Weibo’s FY23 net revenues was US$1.76bn, with an operating margin of 27%, showing resilience in a challenging market. Management’s commitment to driving shareholder value is evident in the approval of a special cash dividend of US$200mn, highlighting the company’s financial discipline and positioning it well for future growth in the dynamic Chinese social media landscape. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $8.5 to $11.0. Positive Outlook.

微博(WB)

  • 23财年第四季营收：4.637亿美元，同比增幅3.5%，超预期740万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.31美元，逊预期0.19美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：不提供指引。
  • 股息：批准了2亿美元的特别现金股利。
  • 短评：微博公司公布第四季度收益超过预期。尽管每股收益低于分析师的预期，但该公司的收入达到4.637亿美元，超出预期，同比增长3%。该公司首席执行官将强劲的业绩归功于产品竞争力和运营效率的提高，尤其是在广告业务方面。投资者对营收表现反应积极，反映出对该公司货币化努力和运营效率的信心。微博的23财年净收入为17.6亿美元，营业利润率为27%，在充满挑战的市场中显示出弹性。管理层对推动股东价值的承诺在批准2亿美元的特别现金股息中得到了体现，这突显了公司的财务纪律，并为未来在充满活力的中国社交媒体环境中的增长做好了准备。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：8.5美至11.0美元。积极前景。

Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $5.18B, +11.2% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.48, beat estimates by $0.10
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect total revenue to be between $5.25bn to $5.30bn vs consensus of $5.31bn, digital media net new ARR to be about $440mn, digital media segment revenue $3.87bn to $3.90bn, digital experience segment revenue to be between $1.31 to $1.33bn, digital experience subscription revenue to be between $1.165bn to $1.185bn. Non-GAAP earnings per share to be between $4.35 to $4.40 vs consensus of $4.37.
  • Stock repurchase: Announced a $25bn stock repurchase program.
  • Comment: Despite beating estimates with over 11% revenue growth in the first quarter, but net income decreased. Adobe paid Figma a US$1bn termination fee after abandoning its acquisition plans due to regulatory concerns. Additionally, Adobe announced the early version of an AI assistant for its Reader and Acrobat apps. Adobe reported lower-than-expected second-quarter revenue forecasts of US$5.25bn to US$5.30bn fell short of analysts’ expectations of US$5.31bn, due to intense competition and weak demand for its AI-integrated software amid economic challenges. The company has been investing in AI tools for products like Photoshop and Premiere Pro but faces pressure as businesses and individuals prioritize cost-cutting due to high interest rates and unfavourable economic conditions. Competition from startups offering similar AI services adds to the challenges. Adobe also announced a US$25bn stock repurchase program. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $460 to $530. Negative Outlook.

奥多比 (ADBE)

  • 24财年第一季营收：518亿美元，同比增幅11.2%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.48美元，超预期0.10美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计总收入将在52.5亿至53亿美元之间，而市场预期为53.1亿美元，数字媒体净新年化经常性收入约为4.4亿美元，数字媒体部门收入为38.7亿至39.9亿美元，数字体验部门收入为13.1亿至13.3亿美元，数字体验订阅收入为11.65亿至11.85亿美元。Non-GAAP每股收益介于4.35美元至4.40美元之间，而市场预期为4.37美元。
  • 股票回购：宣布了250亿美元的股票回购计划。
  • 短评：尽管第一季度营收增长超过11%，超出预期，但净收入却有所下降。由于监管方面的担忧，Adobe放弃了收购计划，向Figma支付了10亿美元的终止费。此外，Adobe还宣布了其Reader和Acrobat应用程序的人工智能助手的早期版本。Adobe公布的第二季度营收预期低于预期，为52.5亿美元至53.3亿美元，低于分析师预期的53.1亿美元，原因是竞争激烈，以及在经济挑战下对其人工智能集成软件的需求疲软。该公司一直在为Photoshop和Premiere Pro等产品投资人工智能工具，但由于高利率和不利的经济条件，企业和个人优先考虑削减成本，因此面临压力。来自提供类似人工智能服务的初创公司的竞争加剧了挑战。Adobe还宣布了一项250亿美元的股票回购计划。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：460美至530美元。负面前景。

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $3.55B, +9.9% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $8.08, beat estimates by $0.54
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales of $11.7bn to $11.8bn. Plans to open 60 to 65 new stores. Operating margin to be between 14.0% to 14.3% and diluted earnings per share $26.2 to $27.0.
  • Share repurchase: New $2bn authorisation of shares repurchased announced.
  • Comment: In Q4, Ulta Beauty exceeded expectations with earnings of $8.08 per share and revenue of US$3.6bn. However, the company forecasts lower full-year profits due to increased supply chain costs and promotions, as consumer spending on discretionary beauty items declined amid inflation concerns. Pressure from retail shrink persists as a challenge. Ulta anticipates a decrease in annual operating margin to 14.0% to 14.3% from 15.0% in FY23, with adjusted EPS forecasted at US$26.20 to US$27, slightly below analysts’ estimates. Sales for the year are projected at US$11.7bn to US$11.8bn, with same-store sales expected to rise by 4% to 5%. The CEO emphasized the competitive market and normalized pricing trends. Ulta plans international expansion, including a joint venture in Mexico. Skincare and new fragrances drove growth, signalling optimism about the beauty industry’s resilience and consumer engagement. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $500 to $550. Neutral Outlook.

Ulta美容(ULTA)

  • 23财年第四季营收：35.5亿美元，同比增幅9.9%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：8.08美元，超预期0.54美元
  • 24财年指引：预计净销售额将达到117亿至118亿美元。计划开设60至65家新店。营业利润率在14.0%至14.3%之间，摊薄后每股收益在26.2美元至27.0美元之间。
  • 股票回购：宣布新的20亿美元股票回购授权。
  • 短评：在第四季度，Ulta美容以每股8.08美元的收益和36亿美元的收入超出了预期。然而，该公司预计，由于供应链成本和促销活动的增加，全年利润将下降，因为消费者在可自由支配的美容产品上的支出在通胀担忧中下降。来自零售萎缩的压力仍然是一个挑战。Ulta预计年度营业利润率将从23财年的15.0%下降至14.0%至14.3%，调整后每股收益预计为26.20美元至27美元，略低于分析师的预期。今年的销售额预计在117亿美元到118亿美元之间，同店销售额预计将增长4%到5%。首席执行官强调了竞争性市场和正常化的定价趋势。Ulta计划进行国际扩张，包括在墨西哥成立一家合资企业。护肤品和新香水推动了增长，表明人们对美容行业的韧性和消费者参与度持乐观态度。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：500美至550美元。中性前景。

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