Technical Analysis – 15 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX US)

Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 575, Target 615, Stop 555

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT US)

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Shares closed at a 52-weeks high.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 240, Target 260, Stop 230

China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp. Ltd. (CAO SP)

Shares closed at high since Aug 23 with a surge in volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.930, Target 0.990, Stop 0.900

ISDN Holdings Ltd. (ISDN SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.345, Target 0.375, Stop 0.330

Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

Shares closed at a three-month high above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 6.98, Target 7.42, Stop 6.76

MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK)

Shares closed at a high since June 2021 above the 5wEMA.
MACD is constructive while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 11.9, Target 12.9, Stop 11.4

Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

4Q23 Revenue: $2.14B, +23.7% YoY, beat estimates by $70M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.34, beat estimates by $0.04
1Q24 Guidance: Revenue to grow at a low-twenties percentage rate on a YoY basis, which translates into a YoY growth rate in the mid-to-high-twenties when adjusting for the 500bp to 600bp impact from the sale of our logistics businesses; 1Q24 Gross margin is expected to increase approximately 150bp compared to 4Q223; GAAP operating expense dollars to be up at a low-teens percentage rate compared to Q4 2023; Stock-based compensation to be approximately $105mn, and capital expenditures to be approximately $10mn; and Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue to be in the high-single digits, with sequential improvement every quarter throughout the year.
Comment: Shopify reported robust results, driven by strong merchant demand during the crucial holiday shopping season. However, their forecast for 1Q24 free cash flow margin anticipates a notable decline in the high single-digit percentage of revenue compared to 4Q23. The company expects increased operating expenses in the first quarter, allocating more towards performance marketing and scaling point-of-sale offerings for physical retailers. On a positive front, Shopify is actively incorporating AI-enabled features into various products using Shopify Magic and its AI assistant “Sidekick,” particularly in the face of escalating competition. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $64 to $88. Neutral Outlook.

Shopify, Inc.(SHOP)

23财年第四季营收：21.4 亿美元，同比增长 23.7%，超预期 7,000 万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.34 美元，超预期 0.04 美元
2024 财年第一季指引：收入将以同比低二十多百分比的速度增长，考虑到出售物流业务带来的 500bp 至 600bp 的影响，调整后同比增长率将达到中至高二十多百分比；预计 2024 年第一季度毛利率将比 2023 年第四季度增加约 150 个基点；美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 营业费用将比 2023 年第四季度增长低十多个百分比；股票补偿预计约为 1.05 亿美元，资本支出约为 1000 万美元；自由现金流占收入的百分比将达到高个位数，并且全年每个季度都会按顺序改善。
短评：电商平台 Shopify 交出了一份喜人的成绩单，假日购物季强劲的商家需求拉动业绩增长。不过，公司预计 2024 年第一季度自由现金流利润率将从上一季度的 “高个位数” 明显下降。为提升市场营销效果和拓展线下零售商服务，公司计划增加运营成本。值得一提的是，面对日益激烈的竞争，Shopify 正积极将人工智能功能融入到旗下产品中，例如 Shopify Magic 和人工智能助手 “Sidekick” 等。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：64美至88美元。中性前景。

Datadog Inc. (DDOG)

4Q23 Revenue: $590M, +25.8% YoY, beat estimates by $21.75M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.44, in-line with estimates
1Q24 Guidance: Revenue between $587mn and $591mn vs $596.24mn consensus; Non-GAAP operating income between $128mn and $132mn; Non-GAAP net income per share between $0.33 and $0.35 vs consensus $0.39. FY24 Outlook: Revenue between $2.555bn and $2.575bn vs $2.59 consensus; Non-GAAP operating income between $535mn and $555mn; Non-GAAP net income per share between $1.38 and $1.44 vs $1.78 consensus.
Comment: Datadog posted strong quarterly revenue, but its 1Q24 and FY24 guidance fell below expectations. The company anticipates sustained sales and earnings momentum in the current year, albeit not reaching the levels seen in 2023. Despite only 3% of its annual recurring revenue coming from historically AI-centric companies, Datadog foresees increased enterprise AI adoption as a sales catalyst in 2024. Additionally, cloud migration initiatives are poised to contribute to revenue growth. As more companies embrace AI, influenced by industry giants like Microsoft and Alphabet, the demand for Datadog’s products is likely to rise. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $100 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

数据监控公司(DDOG)

23财年第四季营收：5.9 亿美元，同比增长 25.8%，超出预期 2175 万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.44 美元，与预估一致
2024 财年第一季指引：收入介于 5.87 亿至 5.91 亿美元之间，分析师预期为 5.9624 亿美元；非美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 营业收入介于 1.28 亿至 1.32 亿美元；非美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 每股净利润介于 0.33 美元至 0.35 美元之间，分析师预期为 0.39 美元。2024 财年指引：收入介于 2.555 亿至 2.575 亿美元之间，分析师预期为 2.59 亿美元；扣除美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 影响后的营业收入介于 5.35 亿至 5.55 亿美元之间；扣除美国通用会计准则 (GAAP) 影响后的每股净利润介于 1.38 美元至 1.44 美元之间，分析师预期为 1.78 美元。
短评：数据监控公司 Datadog 发布了强劲的季度收入，但其 2024 年第一季度和全年业绩指引低于预期。虽然该公司预计今年销售和盈利势头将持续，但不会达到 2023 年的水平。值得注意的是，尽管目前只有 3% 的年度经常性收入来自传统以人工智能为中心的公司，Datadog 预计 2024 年企业对人工智能的采用将成为其销售增长的重要驱动力。此外，云迁移计划也将推动其收入增长。随着微软和谷歌等行业巨头的影响，越来越多的公司拥抱人工智能，Datadog 产品的需求可能会进一步上升。24财年第一季度建议交易区间100美至160美元。中性前景。

Coca-Cola Co. (KO)

4Q23 Revenue: $10.8B, +6.9% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
4Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.49, in-line with estimates
FY24 Guidance: The company expects to deliver organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth of 6% to 7%; Underlying effective tax rate is estimated to be 19.2%; Expects comparable currency neutral EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 8% to 10% and comparable EPS (non-GAAP) growth of 4% to 5%, versus $2.69 in 2023; expects to generate free cash flow (non-GAAP) of approximately $9.2bn through cash flow from operations of approximately $11.4bn, less capital expenditures of approximately $2.2bn.
Comment: Coca-Cola exceeded sales expectations, outperforming peers in the face of weaker demand due to inflation. Despite significant inflation over the past two years, the company adeptly transferred most rising costs to consumers, highlighting its robust pricing power compared to competitors. Despite a 9% price increase, the company achieved a 2% growth in volume sold during the quarter. Management cautioned about consumers feeling economic pressure and tightening budgets, suggesting a potential decline in volume sales in the near term, leading to slower revenue growth. With inflation persisting, as indicated in the latest CPI report, Coca-Cola is poised to encounter more challenges from consumers in the coming quarters. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $55 to $64. Neutral Outlook.

可口可乐 (KO)

23财年第四季营收：108 亿美元，同比增长 6.9%，超预期 1.5 亿美元
23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.49 美元，与预估一致
2024 财年指引：公司预计非美国通用会计准则的有机收入将增长 6% 至 7%。基础有效税率预计为 19.2%。预计以相同货币中和的非美国通用会计准则每股收益将增长 8% 至 10%，而以相同货币中和的每股收益将增长 4% 至 5%，高于 2023 年的 2.69 美元。公司预计通过经营活动产生的现金流约为 11.4 亿美元，减去资本支出约 2.2 亿美元，将产生约 92 亿美元的自由现金流。
短评：可口可乐在最近一个季度业绩超出预期，跑赢了同行，因为同行都面临着通胀导致的需求疲软。尽管过去两年通胀高企，可口可乐巧妙地将大部分成本上涨转嫁给了消费者，凸显了其比竞争对手更强的定价能力。即使提价 9%，该公司本季度销量仍实现了 2% 的增长。然而，管理层也警告称，消费者感受到经济压力并开始收紧预算，这可能导致近期销量下降，从而使收入增长放缓。最新消费者物价指数报告显示通胀仍在持续，因此可口可乐未来几个季度可能会面临来自消费者的更大挑战。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：55美至64美元。中性前景。

Marriott International Inc. (MAR)

4Q23 Revenue: $6.09B, +2.9% YoY, miss estimates by $110M
4Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.57, beat estimates by $1.45
1Q24 Guidance: Forecast an adjusted profit of $2.12 – $2.19 per share on gross fee revenue of $1.19bn – $1.20bn, compared to consensus estimate of $2.30 per share. RevPar is expected to increase worldwide by 4% – 5%. For 2024, the company expects to earn an adjusted profit of $9.18 to $9.52 per share versus the estimated $9.69. RevPar for 2024 is expected to grow by 3% – 5%.
Comment: Marriott International missed sales forecasts and provided weaker-than-expected guidance amid slowing post-pandemic U.S. travel demand. Travel demand in the U.S. has been returning to normal levels after seeing a post-pandemic spike from “revenge travel”, hurting travel companies. With high interest rates and inflation remaining sticky, the company may still face challenges in consumer demand, especially as the winter holidays are about to be over. However, management also highlights that demand from small and medium-sized corporates remained robust, and while large corporates are still lagging, they continue to post volume increases. The company also expects to return $4.1bn to $4.3bn to shareholders in 2024. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $210 to $250. Neutral Outlook.

万豪国际酒店(MAR)

23财年第四季营收：60.9 亿美元，同比增长 2.9%，比预期低 1.1 亿美元
23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：3.57 美元，超预期 1.45 美元
2024 财年指引第一季：万豪国际预计每股调整后利润为 2.12 美元至 2.19 美元，总费用收入为 11.9 亿至 120 亿美元，低于分析师一致预期的 2.30 美元。全球 RevPAR（按现有可供出租客房计算的收入）预计将增长 4% 至 5%。展望 2024 年，公司预计每股调整后利润为 9.18 美元至 9.52 美元，高于预期的 9.69 美元。2024 年 RevPAR 预计将增长 3% 至 5%。
短评：万豪国际近期业绩低于预期，原因是美国疫情后旅游需求放缓导致销售额未达预期，并发布了低于分析师预期的指引。美国疫情后的“报复性旅游”热潮过后，旅游需求逐渐恢复正常水平，这对旅游公司造成了影响。随着高利率和通胀居高不下，尤其是冬季假期即将结束，公司可能会继续面临消费者需求方面的挑战。不过，管理层也强调，中小企业的旅游需求仍然强劲，虽然大型企业目前落后，但预订量仍在增加。该公司还预计在 2024 年向股东返还 41 亿至 43 亿美元。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：210美至250美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc (ABNB)

4Q23 Revenue: $2.22B, +16.8% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
4Q23 EPS: –$0.55, not comparable to consensus of $0.70
1Q24 Guidance: Expects to deliver revenue of $2.03bn to $2.07bn vs $2.03bn consensus, representing a YoY growth of between 12% and 14%. FY24 Guidance: Expects to continue to deliver adjusted EBITDA growth on a nominal basis, for both 1Q24 and FY24. Adjusted EBITDA Margin in 1Q24 to expand relative to 1Q23, primarily due to the timing of expenses.
Comment: Airbnb surpassed revenue expectations for the fourth quarter and provided an optimistic forecast for the current quarter. The company anticipates a moderated growth rate of nights booked in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. International travel demand is projected to remain robust, driven by increased global air connectivity, particularly in Asian and Latin American countries. Meanwhile, domestic travel demand in North America is expected to plateau. Airbnb is currently at an inflection point, expanding into foreign markets, with plans for Switzerland, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The company also revealed a new stock-buyback authorization of up to $6 billion worth of common shares. However, a quarterly net loss of $349 million was reported, attributed to outstanding income tax obligations in Italy, with a warning of potentially “material” amounts for 2022 and 2023. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

爱彼迎公司(ABNB)

23财年第四季营收：2.22 亿美金，同比增长 16.8%，超出分析师预期 6000 万美金
23财年第四季每股盈利：-0.55美元，无法与分析师预期盈利 0.70 美元进行比较
24 财年第一指引：预计收入将在 2.03 亿美金到 2.07 亿美金之间，而分析师预期为 2.03 亿美金，同比增长 12% 到 14%。2024 财年指引：预计第一季度和全年调整后 EBITDA 将继续保持名义增长。第一季度调整后 EBITDA 利润率将相较于去年同期有所提升，主要原因是支出时间安排。
短评：爱彼迎第四季度收入超出预期，并且对即将到来的季度持乐观态度。与上一季度相比，公司预计第一季度客房预订量增长速度将有所放缓。受益于全球航班连接数量上升，特别是亚洲和拉丁美洲国家，国际旅行需求预计将保持强劲。与此同时，北美国内旅行需求预计将趋于平稳。爱彼迎正处于一个扩张拐点，计划进入瑞士、比利时和荷兰等海外市场。此外，公司还披露了新一轮高达 60 亿美元股票回购计划。然而，由于尚未解决意大利的所得税负债，公司第四季度报告了 3.49 亿美元的净亏损，并警告 2022 年和 2023 年可能出现“重大”亏损。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：130美至160美元。中性前景。

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

4Q23 Revenue: $4.38B, +22.0% YoY, beat estimates by $240M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.06, beat estimates by $0.35
FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: MGM Resorts reported exceptional results for Q4, achieving record-high adjusted property EBITDAR in both Las Vegas and MGM China. Seven domestic properties set individual records for FY23 adjusted property EBITDAR, highlighting the team’s resilience and agility. While Las Vegas Strip revenue grew by 3%, regional operations revenue declined by 12%, attributed to the union strike at MGM Grand Detroit. However, MGM China revenue surged by 462% YoY to $983mn, benefiting from the removal of COVID-19 entry restrictions in Macau. Las Vegas solidified its status as a sports and entertainment capital, hosting events like Super Bowl LVIII and the Formula 1 race. In Macau, record adjusted EBITDAR was achieved, driven by strategic additions and operational agility. BetMGM met its targets and made significant technological advancements. MGM anticipates continued growth driven by strategic investments, enhanced customer experiences, and expansion into new markets like Japan and New York. Looking ahead, MGM foresees positive impacts from major events like Super Bowl LVIII and the launch of its Marriott relationship in 2024. Despite challenges, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and is well-positioned for future success. Additionally, the company extended its senior secured credit facility and plans to continue share repurchases. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $43 to $48. Positive Outlook.

美高梅国际度假村(MGM)

23财年第四季营收：43.8 亿美金，同比增长 22.0%，超出分析师预期 2.4 亿美金
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.06美元，超预期0.35美元
2024 财年指引：没有提供指引。
短评：美高梅度假村宣布了第四季度令人瞩目的业绩，其拉斯维加斯和澳门博彩项目的调整后物业EBITDA均创历史新高。七家美国物业在2023财年调整后物业EBITDA均创下纪录，彰显了团队的韧性和敏捷性。尽管拉斯维加斯大道收入增长了3%，但区域运营收入下降了12%，这归因于美高梅底特律大酒店的工会罢工。然而，澳门收入同比猛增462%，达到9.83亿美元，受益于澳门取消了新冠疫情入境限制。拉斯维加斯巩固了其作为体育和娱乐之都的地位，举办了超级碗LVIII和F1比赛等大型活动。在澳门，凭借战略性扩张和运营敏捷性，实现了创纪录的调整后EBITDA。BetMGM实现了既定目标，并在技术方面取得了重大进步。美高梅预计，战略性投资、提升客户体验、以及进军日本和纽约等新市场将带动公司持续增长。展望未来，美高梅预计2024年超级碗LVIII和与万豪合作关系的启动等重大事件将带来积极影响。尽管面临挑战，公司仍保持着强劲的资产负债表，并为未来成功做好了充分准备。此外，公司还延长了其高级抵押信用额度，并计划继续回购股票。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：43美至48美元。乐观前景。