KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 11 September 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO US)

  • Shares closed at a high since Jan 2023 above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 141, Target 149, Stop 137

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM US)

  • Shares closed at a high since May 2023 above the 5dEMA. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 115, Target 121, Stop 112

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Olam Group (OLG SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.26, Target 1.38, Stop 1.20

Del Monte Pacific Ltd. (DELM SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.  
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.170 Target 0.190, Stop 0.160

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Sunshine Insurance Group Co Ltd (6963 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.26, Target 4.50, Stop 4.14

PICC Property and Casualty Co Ltd (2328 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 9.44, Target 10.00, Stop 9.16

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Science Applications International Corp (SAIC)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $1.78B, -3% YoY, beat estimates by $80M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.05, beat estimates by $0.43
  • FY24 Guidance: raised its revenue guidance to a range of $7.2 billion to $7.25 billion from the previous outlook of $7.12 billion to $7.22 billion. It also raised its estimate for adjusted EPS to a range of $7.20 to $7.40 from $7.00 to $7.20 previously.
  • Comment: In 2Q24, SAIC demonstrated impressive performance, surpassing revenue and EPS estimates despite reporting a 3% YoY revenue decline. When accounting for divestitures, the company achieved an 8.3% increase in revenue and a notable 70 basis point growth in adjusted EBITDA margins compared to the previous year. Notably, SAIC underscored its dedication to community engagement, notably through its Hunger Action Month campaign. The company expressed pride in its recent accomplishments, with a strategic focus on harnessing the potential of its skilled workforce, enhancing its brand presence, and achieving profitable organic growth. The updated FY24 guidance suggests that SAIC is on track to deliver its strongest year of organic revenue growth and its highest EBITDA margin since separation, with a strong emphasis on bolstered margins, increased shareholder returns, and a continued commitment to an asset-light business model. Additionally, SAIC announced an impending CEO transition, conveying confidence in the incoming CEO’s ability to uphold the company’s success. The departing CEO reflected on his tenure’s achievements and underscored his commitment to ensuring a smooth leadership transition.  3Q24 recommended trading range: $108 to $115. Positive Outlook. 

科学应用国际 (SAIC)

  • 24财年第二季营收：17.8亿美元, 同比跌幅3.0%，超预期8,000万美元 
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：2.05美元，超预期0.43美元  
  • 24财年指引：将营收预期从之前的71.2亿美元至72.2亿美元区间上调至72亿美元至72.5亿美元区间。该公司还将调整后每股收益预期从此前的7.00美元至7.20美元区间上调至7.20美元至7.40美元区间。
  • 短评：24财年年第二季度，公司业绩令人印象深刻，尽管营收同比下降了3%，但其营收和每股收益均超出了预期。考虑到资产剥离，该公司的收入增长了8.3%，调整后的EBITDA利润率与去年相比显著增长了70个基点。值得注意的是，公司强调了其致力于社区参与，特别是通过其饥饿行动月活动。该公司对其最近取得的成就表示自豪，其战略重点是利用其熟练员工的潜力，增强其品牌影响力，并实现盈利的有机增长。更新后的24财年指引表明，公司有望实现自分拆以来最强劲的有机收入增长和最高的EBITDA利润率，重点是提高利润率、增加股东回报，并继续致力于轻资产商业模式。此外，公司还宣布了即将进行的CEO换届，表达了对新任CEO维护公司成功能力的信心。这位即将离任的首席执行官回顾了他任期内的成就，并强调了他将确保领导权顺利过渡的承诺。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：108美元至115美元。积极前景。

Docusign Inc (DOCU)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $687.69M, +10.5% YoY, beat estimates by $10.27M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.72, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Total Revenue: $687M-$691M, subscription revenue: $669M-673M, billings: $668M-$678M, Non-GAAP gross margin: 81-82%, Non-GAAP operating margin: 22-23%. FY24 Guidance: Total Revenue: $2,725M-$2,737M, subscription revenue: $2,649M-$2,661M, billings: $2,804M-$2,824M, Non-GAAP gross margin: 81-82%, Non-GAAP operating margin: 23-24%.
  • Share buyback: board of directors has authorised an increase of $300mn to its existing stock repurchase program for a total aggregate amount of up to $500mn of DocuSign’s outstanding common stock. The program has no minimum purchase commitment and no mandated end date. 
  • Comment: DocuSign reported strong Q2 results, with total revenue increasing by 11% YoY and subscription revenue at $669mn, also growing by 11%. The international segment demonstrated robust growth, comprising 26% of total revenue. Despite macro pressures impacting expansion rates, the company maintained higher-than-anticipated on-time renewals. DocuSign added approximately 37,000 new customers, reaching a total of 1.44mn customers. While the company expects some deceleration in billings growth in the second half of the year, it remains optimistic about future expansion opportunities. Operating cash flow and free cash flow saw significant increases, and the company has $1.5bn in cash and equivalents. They also announced an increased share repurchase program to $500mn. Looking ahead, DocuSign provided guidance for Q3 and FY24, emphasising cautiousness due to an uncertain macro environment and competitive dynamics. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $47 to $57. Neutral Outlook. 

Docusign (DOCU)

  • 23财年第二季营收：6.8769亿美元, 同比增幅10.5%，超预期1,027万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.72美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：总营收为6.87亿至6.91亿美元，订阅收入为6.69亿至6.73亿美元，账单收入为6.68亿至6.78亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率:81-82%，Non-GAAP营业利润率:22-23%。24财年指引：总营收为27.25亿至27.37亿美元，订阅收入为26.49亿至 26.61亿美元，账单收入为28.04亿至28.24亿美元，Non-GAAP毛利率为81-82%，非Non-GAAP营业利润率为23-24%。
  • 股票回购：董事会已授权在其现有股票回购计划中增加3亿美元，总金额高达5亿美元的DocuSign已发行普通股。该计划没有最低购买承诺，也没有强制终止日期。
  • 短评：DocuSign公布了强劲的第二季度业绩，总收入同比增长11%，订阅收入达到6.69亿美元，同比增长11%。国际业务增长强劲，占总收入的26%。尽管宏观压力影响了扩张速度，但该公司仍保持了高于预期的准时更新。DocuSign增加了大约37,000个新客户，客户总数达到144万。虽然该公司预计下半年的账单增长将有所减速，但它对未来的扩张机会仍持乐观态度。经营现金流和自由现金流大幅增加，该公司拥有15亿美元的现金及等价物。他们还宣布将股票回购计划扩大至5亿美元。展望未来，DocuSign提供了第三季度和24财年的指引，强调由于不确定的宏观环境和竞争动态而保持谨慎。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：47美元至57美元。中性前景。

Kroger Co. (KR)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $33.85B, -2.3% YoY, miss estimates by $270M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.96, beat estimates by $0.05
  • FY23 Guidance: The company reaffirms its FY23 outlook and continues to project adjusted earnings in a range of $4.45 to $4.60 per share on total identical sales growth, without fuel, of 1.0% to 2.0%, with underlying growth of 2.5% to 3.5% after adjusting for the effect of Express Scripts.
  • Comment: The company announced that it would be selling over 400 grocery stores to C&S Wholesales Grocers, bringing in around $1.9B in cash for the divestitures, in an attempt to get regulatory approval for its $25B~ takeover of its smaller rival Albertsons. The company may also need C&S to acquire up to 237 more stores in certain areas in order to obtain regulatory approval for the deal, which is expected to close in early 2024. This merger is likely to reduce competition and drive grocery prices up. The company also took a $1.4B charge in 2Q23 due to an opioid case settlement and warned of weaker sales for the rest of FY2023. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $42 to $52. Neutral Outlook. 

克罗格 (KR)

  • 23财年第二季营收：338.5亿美元, 同比跌幅2.3%，逊预期2.7亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.96美元，超预期0.05美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司重申其23财年前景，并继续预计调整后每股收益在4.45美元至4.60美元之间，不含燃料的总销售额增长率为1.0%至2.0%，经调整后的潜在增长率为2.5%至3.5%。
  • 短评：该公司宣布将向C&S批发杂货公司出售400多家杂货店，为剥离业务带来约19亿美元现金，试图获得监管机构批准，以250亿美元收购规模较小的竞争对手艾伯森。该公司可能还需要C&S在某些地区再收购237家门店，以获得监管机构对该交易的批准，该交易预计将于2024年初完成。这次合并可能会减少竞争，推高食品杂货价格。由于阿片类药物案件和解，该公司还在23年第二季度计入了14亿美元的费用，并警告称，2023财年剩余时间的销售将会疲软。23财年第二季度建议交易区间：42美元至52美元。中性前景。

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