KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 7 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Occidental Petroleum Corporation. (OXY US)

  • Shares closed at a high since Apr 2023 with constructive volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 63.0, Target 69.0, Stop 60.0

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 26.0, Target 28.0, Stop 25.0

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StarHub Ltd (STH SP)

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA. 
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 1.06, Target 1.14 Stop 1.02

Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd (YZJFH SP)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an incline in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.345 Target 0.370, Stop 0.33

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China Life Insurance Co. (2628 HK)

  • Shares closed higher with constructive volume. 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 13.6, Target 14.8, Stop 13.0

China International Capital Corp. (3908 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA, and the 50dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 17.3, Target 19.3, Stop 16.3

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Expedia Group Inc (EXPE)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $3.36B, +5.7% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.89, beat estimates by $0.53
  • FY23 Guidance: The company expects gross bookings to grow by a high-single-digit percentage YoY.
  • Comment: The company’s revenue and bookings failed to meet market expectations, despite a 9% increase in gross bookings to $27.3 billion. Although lodging bookings reached a second-quarter record of $19.2 billion, they were lower than the previous quarter, indicating potential future softening. The company’s gross booking outlook also fell short of market expectations. While the U.S. travel association forecasts a travel volume moderation for FY23, numerous global locations have experienced a notable surge in bookings despite the weak economy, as many airline companies expand global flights. The enduring trend of revenge spending post-pandemic is expected to sustain strong travel demand. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $85 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

Expedia (EXPE)

  • 23财年第二季营收：33.6亿美元, 同比增长5.7%，逊预期1,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.89美元，超预期0.53美元  
  • 23财年指引：公司预计总预订量将以高个位数的年增长率增长。
  • 短评：该公司的收入和预订量未能达到市场预期，尽管总预订量增长了9%达到273亿美元。尽管第二季度的住宿预订量达到创纪录的192亿美元，但仍低于上一季度，表明未来可能出现疲软。该公司的总预订额前景也低于市场预期。美国旅游协会预测，尽管经济疲软，但全球许多地区的预订量都出现了显著增长，因为许多航空公司都扩大了全球航班。大流行后持续的报复性消费趋势预计将维持强劲的旅行需求。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：85美元至115美元。中性前景。

Moderna Inc (MRNA) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $344M, -92.8% YoY, beat estimates by $38.44M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: -$3.62, beat estimates by $0.48
  • FY23 Guidance: The Company is expecting 2023 COVID-19 sales of $6B to $8B, dependent on U.S. vaccination rates. Total expected 2023 sales are comprised of approximately $4B from existing APAs and $2B to $4B from additional sales to the U.S., Japan, EU and other countries. Company currently expecting a 2023 second half sales split of approximately 30% in the third quarter and 70% in the fourth quarter.
  • Comment: The company increased its COVID-19 vaccine sales projection but indicated a delay of $1 billion worth of vaccines from 2023 to 2024, hinting at potential waning demand beyond the U.S. It significantly reduced its estimate for the U.S. commercial Covid-19 vaccine market size. Anticipating declining COVID-19 product sales as the pandemic recedes, the company must persist in investing to cultivate alternative revenue sources that can mitigate the impact of the slowdown in COVID-19 sales. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Neutral Outlook.

莫德纳 (MRNA)

  • 23财年第二季营收：3.44亿美元, 同比跌幅92.8%，超预期3,844万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股亏损：3.62美元，超预期0.48美元  
  • 23财年指引：该公司预计2023年新冠销售额将达到60亿至80亿美元，具体取决于美国的疫苗接种率。预计2023年的总销售额将包括来自现有预售协议的约40亿美元，以及对美国、日本及欧盟等国额外销售的20亿至40亿美元。公司目前预计2023年下半年在第三季度和第四季度的销售额分别占30%和70%。
  • 短评：该公司上调了新冠疫苗的销售预测，但将价值10亿美元的疫苗销售从2023年推迟到2024年，这暗示了美国以外地区的需求可能会减少，并大幅降低了美国商业化新冠疫苗的市场规模。预计随着疫情的消退，新冠产品的销售将会下降，公司必须坚持投资，以培育可减轻新冠销售放缓影响的替代收入来源。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：95美元至120美元。中性前景。

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $134.3B, +10.8% YoY, beat estimates by $2.96B
  • 2Q23 EPS: $0.65, no comparable to estimates of $0.34
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Net sales are expected to be between $138.0B and $143.0B vs. $138.29B consensus, or to grow between 9% and 13% compared with third quarter 2022. This guidance anticipates a favorable impact of approximately 120 basis points from foreign exchange rates. Operating income is expected to be between $5.5B and $8.5B, compared with $2.5B in third quarter 2022.
  • Comment: The performance of the company’s Amazon Web Services segment surpassed initial growth expectations for the quarter. Over the past few quarters, there has been a gradual decline in the pace of growth at Amazon Web Services, driven by customer emphasis on streamlining their cloud expenses. This ongoing trend persists, yet the outcomes, which exceeded projections, provide stronger support for the argument that the recent downturn in cloud demand might be stabilizing. Although customers maintained their focus on cost optimization throughout the June quarter, there’s an emerging trend where more customers are redirecting their attention toward fostering innovation and integrating novel workloads into the cloud. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Positive Outlook.

亚马逊 (AMZN) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：1,343亿美元, 同比增幅10.8%，超预期29.6亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季每股盈利：0.65美元；市场预期为0.34美元，无可比性  
  • 23财年第三季指引：净销售额预计在1,380亿美元至1,430亿美元之间，而市场预期为1,382.9亿美元，或与2022年第三季度相比增长9%至13%。这一指引预计外汇汇率将产生约120个基点的有利影响。营业收入预计将在55亿至85亿美元之间，而2022年第三季度为25亿美元。
  • 短评：亚马逊网络服务部门本季度的表现超出了最初的增长预期。在过去的几个季度里，亚马逊网络服务的增长速度逐渐放缓，原因是客户强调精简他们的云计算费用。这种持续的趋势仍在继续，但业绩超出了预期，为最近云需求的下滑但可能趋于稳定的观点提供了更有力的支持。尽管客户在整个第二季度中仍然关注成本优化，但有一种新趋势是，越来越多的客户将注意力转向促进创新和将新工作负载集成到云中。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至160美元。积极前景。

Apple Inc (AAPL) 

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $81.8B, -1.4% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 3Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.26, beat estimates by $0.07
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Expect September quarter year-over-year revenue performance to be similar to the June quarter, assuming that the macroeconomic outlook doesn’t worsen. Foreign exchange will continue to be a headwind, and it expects a negative year-over-year revenue impact of over 2 percentage points. gross margin to be between 44% and 45%; OpEx to be between $13.5B and $13.7B; OI&E to be around negative $250M, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments, and tax rate to be around 16%.
  • Comment: The company anticipates an uneven economic outlook ahead. While sales in greater China remained strong, America exhibited a weak point. Unfavorable foreign exchange rates are likely to impact Apple’s upcoming quarterly results, potentially leading to a year-over-year decline in Mac and iPad sales. Notably, Apple’s services business excelled this quarter, achieving $21.2 billion in sales, an 8.2% YoY increase, with over 1 billion paid subscriptions now active. As expected interest rates peak and consumer confidence reaches its highest level since October 2021 in July, there is potential for improved demand for Apple products in the near future. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $175 to $195. Neutral Outlook.

苹果 (AAPL) 

  • 23财年第三季营收：818亿美元, 同比跌幅1.4%，符合预期 
  • 23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.26美元，超预期0.07美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：假设宏观经济前景没有恶化，预计9月份季度的收入同比表现将与6月份季度相似。外汇将继续是一个不利因素，该公司预计同比收入将受到超过2个百分点的负面影响。毛利率在44%至45%之间；运营成本在135亿至137亿美元之间；净运营支出约为2.5亿美元，不包括少数股权投资按市值计价的任何潜在影响，税率约为16%。
  • 短评：该公司预计未来的经济前景将不平衡。虽然大中华区的销售依然强劲，但美国的销售表现出了弱点。不利的外汇汇率可能会影响苹果下一季度业绩，可能导致Mac和iPad的销量同比下降。值得注意的是，苹果的服务业务在本季度表现出色，实现了212亿美元的销售额，同比增长8.2%，目前已有超过10亿的付费订阅。随着预期利率见顶，消费者信心在7月份达到2021年10月以来的最高水平，在不久的将来，对苹果产品的需求可能会有所改善。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：175美元至195美元。中性前景。

Coinbase Global Inc (COIN) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $707.9M, -12.4% YoY, beat estimates by $70.12M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.42, beat estimates by $0.36
  • 3Q23 Guidance: expects Q3 subscription and services revenue of at least $300M and for technology and general and administrative expenses of $575M-$625M (including about ~$210M in stock-based compensation)
  • Comment: The company reported a strong set of results attributed to higher interest income, with subscriptions and services presenting 51% of net revenue. On the other hand, trading volume and transactional revenue declined, showing that the rebound in crypto price in the quarter did not lure traders back onto the platform. This is attributed to the risk and high volatility of cryptocurrencies. Going forward, the company also expects to win its legal battle with the U.S. securities regulator. The market also expects cryptocurrencies to rally in 2023, which might add a boost to the company in general. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $80 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

Coinbase全球 (COIN) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：7.079亿美元, 同比跌幅12.4%，超预期7,012万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股亏损：0.42美元，超预期0.36美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计第三季度认购和服务收入至少为3亿美元，技术、一般和管理费用为5.75亿至6.25亿美元，包括约2.1亿美元的股票薪酬。
  • 短评：该公司报告了一系列强劲的业绩，归因于更高的利息收入；订阅和服务占净收入的51%。另一方面，交易量和交易收入下降，表明本季度加密货币价格的反弹并没有吸引交易者回到平台上。这归因于加密货币的风险和高波动性。展望未来，该公司还预计将赢得与美国证券监管机构的法律战。市场还预计，加密货币将在2023年反弹，这可能会给该公司整体带来提振。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至115美元。中性前景。

Airbnb Inc (ABNB) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $2.48B, +18.1% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.98, beat estimates by $0.20
  • 3Q23 Guidance: expects Q3 revenue of $3.3B to $3.4B vs consensus of $3.22B. ABNB expects a record-high adjusted EBITDA tally on a nominal basis and an adjusted EBITDA margin that exceeds Q3 of a year ago. For FY23, ABNB expects an adjusted EBITDA margin that is modestly higher than the full-year 2022.
  • Comment: Airbnb forecasts Q3 revenue surpassing market estimates. The company expects to benefit from a rebound in urban and international travel, with global cross-border bookings rising 16% in Q2. The average daily rate globally rose only 1% to $166, with daily rates in North America decreasing by 1%. Despite a smaller number of nights and experiences booked in Q2 than projected, Airbnb’s revenue still grew 18% YoY. Gross booking value for the quarter was $19.1B, a 12% increase YoY. Looking ahead, there may be slight challenges facing the US domestic demand but it will be offset by continued performance in its international sectors. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $135 to $155. Positive Outlook.

爱彼迎 (ABNB) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：24.8亿美元, 同比增幅18.1%，超预期6,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.98美元，超预期0.20美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计第三季度营收为33亿至34亿美元，而市场预期为32.2亿美元。公司预期名义上调整后的EBITDA将创下历史新高，调整后的EBITDA利润率将超过去年第三季度。对于23财年，公司预计调整后的EBITDA利润率将略高于2022年全年。
  • 短评：公司预计第三季度收入将超过市场预期。该公司预计将受益于城市和国际旅游的反弹，第二季度全球跨境预订量将增长16%。全球平均日房价仅上涨1%，至166美元，北美地区的日房价下降了1%。尽管第二季度预订的住宿和体验数量低于预期，但公司的收入仍同比增长18%。该季度的总预订价值为191亿美元，同比增长12%。展望未来，美国国内需求可能会面临一些挑战，但其国际部门的持续表现将抵消这些挑战。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：135美元至155美元。积极前景。

DraftKings Inc (DKNG) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $875M, +87.8% YoY, beat estimates by $112.16M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.14, beat estimates by $0.28
  • FY23 Guidance: increased revenue guidance to a range of $3.46B to $3.54B vs $3.27B consensus from the range of $3.135B to $3.235B. In 4Q23, DraftKings expects to generate $150M to $175M of Adjusted EBITDA and nearly $1.2B of revenue.
  • Comment: DraftKings reported better-than-expected sales in Q2 and has raised its revenue guidance for FY23. It also forecasts a narrower annual loss of $190mn to $220mn before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, compared to the earlier estimate of $290mn to $340mn. DraftKings’ Q2 revenue increase was driven by the acquisition of new customers and higher bets on lucrative products. The number of monthly unique players grew by 44% to 2.1mn. The company faces competition from other sportsbooks in the expanding sports gambling market, and it has been working to reduce losses and become profitable. Should the company be able to continue to appeal to more customers in the coming quarter and encourage higher bets, it will be able to outperform its competitors in the industry. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $30 to $45. Positive Outlook.

DraftKings (DKNG) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：8.75亿美元, 同比增幅87.8%，超预期1.1216亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.14美元，超预期0.28美元  
  • 23财年指引：将营收指引上调至34.6亿至35.4亿美元，而市场预期为32.7亿美元，区间为31.35亿至32.35亿美元。在第四季度，DraftKings预计将产生1.5亿至1.75亿美元的调整后EBITDA和近12亿美元的收入。
  • 短评：DraftKings公布第二季度销售额好于预期，并上调了23财年的收入指引。该公司还预测，未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的年度亏损为1.9亿至2.2亿美元，较之前估计的2.9亿至3.4亿美元有所收窄。DraftKings第二季度的收入增长是由新客户的获得和对利润丰厚的产品的更高押注推动的。月独立用户数量增长了44%，达到210万。在不断扩大的体育博彩市场上，该公司面临着来自其他体育博彩公司的竞争，该公司一直在努力减少亏损，实现盈利。如果该公司能够在下个季度继续吸引更多的客户，并鼓励更高的赌注，它将能够超越业内的竞争对手。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：30美元至45美元。积极前景。

Cloudflare Inc (NET) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $308.5M, +31.6% YoY, beat estimates by $2.68M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.10, beat estimates by $0.03
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Total revenue of $330.0M to $331.0M vs. $329.8M consensus; Non-GAAP income from operations of $20.0 to $21.0M; Non-GAAP net income per share of $0.10 vs. $0.09 consensus, utilizing weighted average common shares outstanding of approximately 347M. In FY23, Cloudflare expects Total revenue of $1,283.0M to $1,287.0M vs. $1.28B consensus; Non-GAAP income from operations of $81.0M to $85.0M; Non-GAAP net income per share of $0.37 vs. $0.34 consensus, utilizing weighted average common shares outstanding of approximately 345M.
  • Comment: Cloudflare reported better-than-expected results for Q2 and raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts. The company added 196 new large customers, a 34% increase YoY. Sales cycles and pipeline close rates improved, and it observed increased collections on accounts receivable, indicating improved customer confidence. The company reported a record operating profit of $20.3mn, the fourth consecutive quarter of such performance. Dollar-based net retention rate decreased to 115%, mainly due to slower expansion from existing larger customers. The company continues to invest in its AI capabilities and is optimistic about growth in this area. With strong pipeline growth and customer wins, particularly in Zero Trust Solutions and AI-related businesses, it can be expected to continue to perform in this uncertain economic environment in the coming quarter. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $68 to $74. Positive Outlook.

Cloudflare (NET) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：3.085亿美元, 同比增幅31.6%，超预期268万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.10美元，超预期0.03美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：总营收为3.30亿至3.31亿美元，市场预期为3.298亿美元；Non-GAAP运营收入为2,000万至2,100万美元；Non-GAAP每股盈利为0.10美元，市场预期为0.09美元，加权平均普通股流通股约为3.47亿股。在23财年Cloudflare预计总收入为12.83亿至12.87亿美元，而市场预期为12.8亿美元；Non-GAAP经营收入为8,100万至8,500万美元；Non-GAAP每股净收入为0.37美元，市场预期为0.34美元，加权平均普通股流通股约为3.45亿股。
  • 短评：Cloudflare公布第二季度业绩好于预期，并上调了年度收入和利润预期。该公司增加了196个新的大客户，同比增长34%。销售周期和计划项目完成率有所改善，应收账款回收有所增加，表明客户信心有所改善。该公司报告称，营业利润达到创纪录的2,030万美元，连续第四个季度实现这一业绩。以美元计算的净留存率下降至115%，主要原因是现有大客户的扩张放缓。该公司继续投资于其人工智能能力，并对该领域的增长持乐观态度。凭借强劲的计划项目增长和客户获取，特别是在零信任解决方案和人工智能相关业务方面，可以预期，在未来一个季度的不确定经济环境中，它将继续表现出色。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：65美元至80美元。积极前景。

Fortinet Inc (FTNT) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.29B, +25.2% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.38, beat estimates by $0.04
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $1.315B to $1.375B; Billings in the range of $1.560B to $1.620B; Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 75.5% to 76.5%; Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 24.5% to 25.5%. In FY23, it expects revenue in the range of $5.350B to $5.450B; Service revenue in the range of $3.350B to $3.410B; Billings in the range of $6.490B to $6.590B; Non-GAAP gross margin in the range of 75.25% to 76.25%; Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 25.25% to 26.25%.
  • Comment: Fortinet lowered its annual revenue forecast due to tight spending from enterprise clients in a turbulent economy. The company’s near-term revenue growth is affected by customers shifting to long-term investments, and it faces tough competition from larger rivals like Palo Alto Networks. Additionally, increased hiring for sales and marketing has put pressure on Fortinet’s operating margin, which is now expected to be lower compared to in 2022. The company is focused on investing in IoT security, cloud security, and security operations to drive future growth in the hybrid infrastructure landscape. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $62 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

飞塔信息 (FTNT) 

  • 23财年第二季营收：12.9亿美元, 同比增幅25.2%，逊预期1,000万美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.38美元，超预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：营收在13.15亿美元至13.75亿美元之间；帐务金额在15.6亿美元至16.2亿美元之间；Non-GAAP毛利率在75.5%至76.5%之间；Non-GAAP营业利润率在24.5%至25.5%之间。对于23财年全年，该公司预计营收在53.5亿美元至54.5亿美元之间；服务收入在33.5亿美元至34.1亿美元之间；账单金额在64.9亿至65.9亿美元之间；Non-GAAP毛利率在75.25%至76.25%之间；Non-GAAP营业利润率在25.25%至26.25%之间。
  • 短评：由于经济动荡，企业客户支出紧张，公司下调了年度营收预期。该公司的近期收入增长受到客户转向长期投资的影响，而且它还面临着来自帕洛阿尔托网络 (Palo Alto Networks) 等更大竞争对手的激烈竞争。此外，销售和营销招聘的增加也给公司的营业利润率带来了压力。目前预计该公司的营业利润率将低于2022年。该公司专注于投资物联网安全、云安全和安全运营，以推动混合基础设施领域的未来增长。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：62美元至70美元。中性前景。

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