Technical Analysis – 31 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Home Depot, Inc. (HD US)

Shares closed at a high since Feb 23.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 330, Target 350, Stop 320

Lowes Companies, Inc. (LOW US)

Shares closed higher at a 52-week high.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 234, Target 250, Stop 226

ISDN Holdings Ltd (ISDN SP)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
Long – Entry 0.440, Target 0.470 Stop 0.425

Sheng Siong Group Ltd (SSG SP)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA at a one-month high with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA was about to cross the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD just turned positive.
Long – Entry 1.63 Target 1.76, Stop 1.56

Kuaishou Technology. (1024 HK)

Shares closed at a high since Feb 23 with constructive volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 65, Target 71, Stop 62

Kingdee International Software Group (268 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 12.8, Target 14.0, Stop 12.2

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

2Q23 Revenue: $82.91B, -28.3% YoY, miss estimates by $7.41B
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.94, miss estimates by $0.08
FY23 Guidance: FY23 Capital and exploration expenditures of $23B to $25B. 3Q23 corporate financing expense expected to be $400M to $500M. The company also expects higher volumes on lower scheduled maintenance.
Comment: Exxon Mobil’s Q2 profit dropped by 56%, falling short of expectations due to lower energy prices and reduced fuel margins. While global oil majors’ profits have declined by about half since 2022, Exxon achieved its strongest result for the April-to-June quarter in over a decade, aided by cost cuts and asset sales. The company plans further cost reductions after saving $8.3bn since 2019. Despite missing estimates, Exxon’s CFO highlighted it as a good quarter. The CEO anticipates record oil demand in the coming years, potentially boosting energy prices in 2H23. Even if oil prices remain at current levels, it is anticipated that Exxon will continue to perform similarly to 2Q23 in 3Q23. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $98 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

埃克森美孚 (XOM)

23财年第二季营收：829.1亿美元, 同比跌幅28.3%，逊预期74.1亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.94美元，逊预期0.08美元
23财年指引：23财年资本和勘探支出为230亿至250亿美元。3Q23企业融资费用预计为4至5亿美元。该公司还预计，较低的定期维护将带来更高的销量。
短评：埃克森美孚第二季度利润下降56%，低于预期，原因是能源价格下跌和燃料利润率下降。尽管全球石油巨头的利润自2022年以来下降了约一半，但在成本削减和资产出售的帮助下，埃克森美孚在4月至6月的季度实现了10多年来最强劲的业绩。自2019年以来，该公司已节省83亿美元，计划进一步削减成本。尽管没有达到预期，但埃克森美孚首席财务官强调这是一个不错的季度。这位首席执行官预计，未来几年石油需求将创历史新高，这可能会在2013年下半年推高能源价格。即使油价保持在目前的水平，预计埃克森美孚在第三季度的表现也将与第二季度相似。第三季度建议交易区间：98美元至115美元。中性前景。

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)

4Q23 Revenue: $20.6B, +5.5% YoY, beat estimates by $610M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.37, beat estimates by $0.05
FY24 Guidance: All-in sales growth in the range of 3%-4% versus the prior year; Organic sales growth in the range of 4%-5%; diluted net EPS growth in the range of 6%-9% versus fiscal 2023 EPS of $5.90; core effective tax rate to be approximately 20% in FY24; capital spending is estimated to be approximately 5% of FY24 net sales; adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% and expects to pay more than $9bn in dividends and to repurchase $5 to $6bn of common shares in FY24.
Comment: Procter & Gamble surpassed analysts’ expectations for quarterly sales and profit as it implemented multiple price hikes, offsetting weak demand in China. Overall volumes fell 1% in the 4Q23, with soft demand in Greater China affecting performance. However, strong demand for P&G’s products in the US, including Pampers, Pantene, and Oral-B, contributed to positive volume growth of 3% in the country. Despite concerns about recent price hikes potentially impacting customer loyalty, with increasing consumer confidence, we expect demand to remain consistent in the coming quarter. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $155 to $165. Neutral Outlook.

保洁 (PG)

23财年第四季营收：206亿美元, 同比增幅13.6%，超预期6.1亿美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.37美元，超预期0.05美元
24财年指引：总销售额同比增长3%-4%；有机销售增长率在4%-5%之间；摊薄后每股收益净增长率为6%-9%，而2023财年每股收益为5.90美元；核心有效税率在24财年约为20%；资本支出预计约占24财年净销售额的5%；调整后的自由现金流生产率为90%，并预计在24财年支付逾90亿美元的股息，并回购50至60亿美元的普通股。
短评：宝洁公司的季度销售额和利润超出了分析师的预期，该公司实施了多次提价，抵消了中国需求的疲软。第四季度整体销量下降1%，大中华区需求疲软影响了业绩。然而，美国市场对宝洁产品的强劲需求，包括帮宝适、潘婷和欧乐b，使宝洁在美国的销量增长了3%。尽管人们担心最近的价格上涨可能会影响客户忠诚度，但随着消费者信心的增强，我们预计未来一个季度的需求将保持稳定。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：155美元至165美元。中性前景。

Chevron Corp. (CVX)

2Q23 Revenue: $48.9B, -28.9% YoY, beat estimates by $900.8M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.08, beat estimates by $0.10
FY23 Guidance: Management sees FY23 production outlook is trending near the low end of the annual guidance range.
Comment: Annual oil and gas production is expected to remain near the lower end of its guidance due to unexpected operational stoppages in Canada and Thailand. In FY22 the company produced 3mn barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day (boepd) globally, with a forecast of flat or 3% annual growth through 2027. Wildfires in Canada and an incident with a platform in Thailand have impacted production negatively. Despite challenges, Chevron remains focused on its Permian basin and its 50% interest in Tengizchevroil in Kazakhstan to boost production and revenue. The company faces geopolitical tensions and setbacks in the Permian, but the CEO believes the portfolio is diverse and strategically strong. However, we believe with the trouble facing its oil and gas production it will struggle to meet demand in the coming quarter. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $145 to $158. Negative Outlook.

雪佛龙 (CVX)

23财年第二季营收：63.0亿美元, 同比增幅14.0%，超预期1.3亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.89美元，超预期0.06美元
23财年第三季指引：管理层认为23财年的产量前景趋于接近年度指导区间的低端。
短评：由于加拿大和泰国的意外停产，其年度油气产量预计将保持在其指导目标的低端。在2022财年，该公司在全球每天生产300万桶石油和天然气当量，预计到2027年将保持不变或3%的年增长率。加拿大的野火和泰国的一个平台事故对产量产生了负面影响。尽管面临挑战，雪佛龙仍将重点放在二叠纪盆地和哈萨克斯坦tengizchevron公司50%的股份上，以提高产量和收入。该公司在二叠纪盆地面临地缘政治紧张局势和挫折，但首席执行官认为，投资组合是多样化的，战略上是强大的。然而，我们认为，由于其石油和天然气生产面临的问题，它将难以满足下一季度的需求。第三季度建议交易区间：145美元至158美元。负面前景。

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)

2Q23 Revenue: $4.82B, +7.6% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.77, beat estimates by $0.02
FY23 Guidance: Expects net sales growth to be 5% to 8% including the benefit from its acquisitions of pet food businesses and a low-single-digit negative impact from foreign exchange. It expects organic sales growth to be 5% to 7%.
Comment: In 2Q23, Colgate-Palmolive experienced robust organic sales growth of 8.0% YoY, driven by strong performance in Latin America and Africa/Euroasia divisions, though North America and Asia Pacific lagged behind. The company implemented an 11.0% price increase across products, but faced a 3.0% decline in organic volume, and foreign exchange impacted growth negatively by two percentage points. Colgate-Palmolive raised its FY23 organic sales forecast, expecting steady demand for pet nutrition products and continued price hikes to offset higher costs from supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Hill’s Pet Nutrition demonstrated resilience, contributing 22% of total sales in the quarter. The company maintains a strong market share in the United States for toothpaste and manual toothbrushes. The CEO is optimistic about driving growth for the rest of 2023, increasing advertising spending to support brand health and innovation, while leveraging sustained pricing and productivity initiatives to expand gross margins. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $75 to $83. Neutral Outlook.

高露洁 (CL)

23财年第二季营收：48.2亿美元, 同比增幅7.6%，超预期1.2亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.77美元，超预期0.02美元
23财年第三季度指引：预计净销售额增长为5%至8%，包括收购宠物食品业务的收益和外汇带来的低个位数的负面影响。该公司预计有机销售额将增长5%至7%。
短评：在23年第二季度，高露洁经历了强劲的有机销售增长，同比增长8.0%，这是由拉丁美洲和非洲/欧亚部门的强劲表现推动的，尽管北美和亚太地区落后。该公司实施了所有产品11.0%的价格上涨，但面临着3.0%的有机销量下降，外汇影响了两个百分点的增长。高露洁上调了23财年有机产品销售预期，预计宠物营养产品需求稳定，价格持续上涨，以抵消供应链中断和地缘政治紧张局势带来的成本上升。希尔宠物营养品公司表现出了韧性，贡献了本季度总销售额的22%。该公司在美国牙膏和手动牙刷方面保持着强大的市场份额。这位首席执行官对推动2023年剩余时间的增长持乐观态度，增加广告支出以支持品牌健康和创新，同时利用持续的定价和生产力举措来扩大毛利率。第三季度建议交易区间：75美元至83美元。中性前景。

AstraZeneca Plc. (AZN)

2Q23 Revenue: $11.42B, +6.0% YoY, beat estimates by $400M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.15, beat estimates by $1.18
FY23 Guidance: Reiterated total revenue is expected to increase by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage, excluding COVID-19 medicines, which are expected to decline significantly. Core EPS is expected to increase by a high single-digit to a low double-digit percentage.
Comment: AstraZeneca reported strong 2Q23 sales and earnings that beat estimates. The company’s performance was supported by its cancer drugs, offsetting the decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales. The CEO expressed optimism about the company’s lung cancer trial, boosting investor confidence. Despite the decline in COVID-19 vaccine sales, the company registered no revenue from it in 2Q23. The company’s sales in China grew by 7%, and it upgraded its guidance for China, expecting a low-to-mid single-digit percentage increase in total revenue for FY23. AstraZeneca dismissed rumors of a plan to spin off its China business. Additionally, it’s unit Alexion agreed to buy Pfizer’s rare disease gene therapy portfolio for up to $1bn to enhance its genomic medicine capabilities. With both alliance and collaboration revenue expected to increase and further investments in new trials and launches, we expect that their revenue will be boosted in the next quarter. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $70 to $80. Positive Outlook.

阿斯利康 (AZN)

23财年第二季营收：114.2亿美元, 同比增幅6.0%，超预期4.0亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.15美元，超预期1.18美元
23财年指引：重申总营收预计将以个位数的百分比增长，不包括预计将大幅下降的新冠药物。核心每股收益预计将以高个位数至低两位数的百分比增长。
短评：阿斯利康公布第二季度销售和收益强劲，超出预期。该公司的业绩受到抗癌药物的支持，抵消了COVID-19疫苗销售的下降。这位首席执行官对公司的肺癌试验表示乐观，提振了投资者的信心。尽管新冠疫苗的销售额有所下降，但该公司在第二季度没有收入。该公司在中国的销售额增长了7%，并上调了对中国的预期，预计23财年总收入将实现低至中个位数的百分比增长。阿斯利康否认了剥离中国业务的传闻。此外，其子公司Alexion同意以高达10亿美元的价格收购辉瑞的罕见病基因治疗产品组合，以增强其基因组医学能力。随着联盟和合作收入的增加，以及对新试验和新产品的进一步投资，我们预计他们的收入将在下个季度得到提振。第三季度建议交易区间：70美元至80美元。积极前景。