Technical Analysis – 30 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
RSI is at an “oversold” level, while MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 48.40, Target 52.40, Stop 46.40

Scorpio Tankers (STNG US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 57.0, Target 61.0, Stop 55.0

CapitaLand Ascott Trust (ART SP)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 0.905, Target 0.965 Stop 0.875

Marco Polo Marine Ltd (MPM SP)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and touched the 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 0.0500 Target 0.0530 Stop 0.0485

Trip.com Group Limited (9961 HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 275.6, Target 290.0, Stop 268.4

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd (1919 HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 7.84, Target 8.34, Stop 7.59

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)

3Q23 Revenue: $90.76B, -19.0% YoY, miss estimates by $1.81B
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.27, miss estimates by $0.09
FY23 Guidance: Capital and exploration expenditures are expected to be at the top end of the guidance of $23bn to $25bn as the company pursues value accretive opportunities.
Comment: Exxonmobil missed estimates due to the weaker chemical profits and refining margins. Oil prices recovered due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It established two all-stock deals when the shares were traded near an all-time record during the quarter with Pioneer Natural Resources and Denbury for shale and carbon respectively. Despite the rise in oil and fuel prices, the company’s profit was impacted by higher material costs from its chemical business. It recently sold a refinery in Thailand for $900mn and has listed its refinery in Italy for sale as well. The company is expected to maintain its production target for 2023 at 3.7mn boepd and distribute $17.5bn buybacks. As the company looks to continue reducing its costs and focusing more on lucrative projects, it will continue to boost production in order to partially offset lower prices in its different business segments. Furthemore with its cash reserves increasing 10% QoQ to $33bn, it will better position Exxonmobil for when the commodity cycle turns against it. We believe that the coming quarter may continue to be sustained by the higher oil prices alongside the divestments. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $100 to $115. Neutral Outlook.

埃克森美孚 (XOM)

23财年第三季营收：907.6亿美元, 同比跌幅19.0%，逊预期18.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股亏损：2.27美元，逊预期0.09美元
23财年指引：随着公司寻求增值机会，资本和勘探支出预计将达到230亿至250亿美元的指导目标的高端。
短评：由于化工利润和炼油利润率较弱，埃克森美孚未能达到预期。由于中东地区的持续冲突，油价有所回升。该公司与先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources)和Denbury分别进行了两笔全股票交易，交易价格接近历史最高水平。尽管石油和燃料价格上涨，但该公司的利润受到化工业务材料成本上升的影响。该公司最近以9亿美元的价格出售了位于泰国的一家炼油厂，并将其位于意大利的炼油厂挂牌出售。预计该公司将把2023年的产量目标维持在370万桶/天，并分配175亿美元的回购。由于该公司希望继续降低成本，并更多地关注利润丰厚的项目，它将继续提高产量，以部分抵消其不同业务部门价格下跌的影响。此外，其现金储备环比增长10%，达到330亿美元，这将使埃克森美孚在大宗商品周期转向不利时处于更好的位置。我们认为，未来一个季度公司股价可能会继续受到油价上涨和资产剥离的支撑。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：100美元至115美元。中性前景。

Chevron Corp (CVX)

3Q23 Revenue: $54.08B, -18.8% YoY, beats estimates by $1.08B
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.05, misses estimates by $0.64
4Q23 Guidance: Estimate for turnarounds and downtime includes approximately 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for Tamar. The company anticipates affiliate dividends in the fourth quarter to be largely from TCO, it records a 15% withholding tax on TCO dividends.
Comment: The company posted less-than-expected earnings as refining margin remains weak, declining YoY. Chevron Corp. also announced that costs at its $45bn Tengiz project in Kazakhstan will increase by about 4% due to a slower-than-expected start-up. The company will also need to pay an extra $1bn for its share of capital spending. As a result, the project’s free cash flow is expected to drop by 20% from 2025, and output will be lower than expected in 2023 and 2024. Despite these setbacks, the company recently announced that it would be acquiring Hess for $53bn, giving the company greater access to US shale production, further establishing its position as a market leader. This combination positions Chevron to strengthen its long-term performance and further enhance its advantaged portfolio by adding world-class assets, at the same time reducing supply chain risks as a result of ongoing tension around the world. The company’s acquisition of Hess would increase the company’s free cash flow, giving the company more cash on hand in the long term to do more share repurchases. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $135 to $155. Neutral Outlook.

雪佛龙 (CVX)

23财年第三季营收：540.8亿美元, 同比增跌幅18.8%，超预期10.8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.05美元，逊预期0.64美元
23财年第四季指引：估计Tamar的周转和停机时间约为每天30,000桶油当量。该公司预计，第四季度附属公司的股息将主要来自TCO，它将对TCO股息征收15%的预扣税。
短评：该公司公布的收益低于预期，因为炼油利润率仍然疲软，同比下降。雪佛龙公司还宣布，由于启动速度慢于预期，其在哈萨克斯坦的450亿美元Tengiz项目的成本将增加约4%。该公司还需要为其资本支出份额额外支付10亿美元。因此，该项目的自由现金流预计将比2025年下降20%，2023年和2024年的产量将低于预期。尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但该公司最近宣布将以530亿美元收购Hess，这将使该公司更容易进入美国页岩油生产，进一步确立其市场领导者的地位。此次合并使雪佛龙能够加强其长期业绩，并通过增加世界级资产进一步增强其优势投资组合，同时降低因全球紧张局势而导致的供应链风险。公司收购赫斯将增加公司的自由现金流，从长远来看，公司将有更多的现金来进行更多的股票回购。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：135美元至155美元。中性前景。

Phillips 66 (PSX)

3Q23 Revenue: $40.32B, -17.31% YoY, beat estimates by $2.68B
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.63 miss estimates by $0.10
4Q23 Guidance: Global O&P utilization rate to be in the mid-90s. In Refining, it expects the fourth quarter worldwide crude utilisation rate to be in the low-90s and turnaround expenses to be between $90mn and $110mn. It anticipates fourth-quarter Corporate and Other costs to come in between $280mn and $300mn.
Comment: The company posted a weaker set of results, primarily attributed to declining refining margins YoY worldwide. Crude utilization rate at Phillips 66 refineries was at 95%, the highest since 2019 amid strong summer fuel demand. Higher realized margins supported by the stronger utilization lifted Phillips 66’s earnings QoQ. However. the tensions between Gaza and Israel are likely to continue putting pressure on oil prices The company also returned $6.7 billion through share repurchases and dividends since July 2022 and is now increasing this target to a range of $13bn to $15bn, compared to its original $10bn to $12bn target, and plans to return at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders. The company also plans to monetize non-core assets that are expected to generate over $3 billion in proceeds that will be deployed to further strategic priorities, including returns to shareholders. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $105 to $125. Positive Outlook.

菲利普66 (PSX)

23财年第三季营收：403.2亿美元, 同比跌幅17.31%，超预期26.8亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.63美元，逊预期0.10美元
23财年第四季指引：全球油气开发利用率将在90%至100%中值。在炼油业务方面，该公司预计第四季度全球原油产能利用率将在90%左右，周转费用将在9,000万美元至1.1亿美元之间。该公司预计，第四季度的企业和其他成本将在2.8亿美元至3亿美元之间。
短评：该公司公布了一组较弱的业绩，主要归因于全球炼油利润率同比下降。由于夏季燃料需求强劲，菲利普斯66炼油厂的原油利用率为95%，为2019年以来的最高水平。更高的实现利润率受到更强的利用率的支持，提高了公司的季度盈利。然而。自2022年7月以来，该公司还通过股票回购和股息回报了67亿美元，目前正将这一目标提高到130亿至150亿美元，而最初的目标是100亿至120亿美元，并计划将至少50%的运营现金流返还给股东。该公司还计划将非核心资产货币化，预计将产生超过30亿美元的收益，这些收益将用于进一步的战略优先事项，包括回报股东。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：105美元至125美元。积极前景。

Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.92B, +10.3% YoY, beat estimates by $100M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86, beat estimate of $0.06
FY23 Guidance: The Company now expects net sales growth to be 6% to 8% (versus 5% to 8% previously), including the benefit from our acquisitions of pet food businesses and a low-single-digit negative impact from foreign exchange. The Company increased its organic sales growth guidance to 7% to 8% (versus 5% to 7% previously).
Comment: The company posted a strong set of results, boosted by a strong profit margin as it raised its prices by 9.5% globally for the quarter. The company has consistently increased prices over the last year to combat inflationary pressures, at the same time boosting its profit margins. The company highlighted that its strategy is working, and the continued execution of the strategy poses the company to be well-positioned for the future. The company believe this will enable it to deliver balanced organic sales growth going forward across its business in terms of both volume and pricing growth. While consumers remained resilient amidst rising prices for the previous quarter, consumer sentiment took a dip to the lowest level in 5 months in October, which may present headwinds for the company’s sales. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $66 to $77. Neutral Outlook.

高露洁棕榄 (CL)

23财年第三季营收：49.2亿美元, 同比增幅10.3%，超预期1亿美元
23财年第三季每股盈利：0.86美元，超预期0.06美元
23财年指引：公司目前预计净销售额增长为6%至8%（之前为5%至8%），包括收购宠物食品业务带来的收益和来自外汇的低个位数的负面影响。该公司将有机销售增长预期上调至7%至8%（此前为5%至7%）。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，这得益于该季度全球提价9.5%带来的强劲利润率。该公司去年一直在提高价格，以应对通胀压力，同时提高利润率。该公司强调其战略正在发挥作用，该战略的持续执行使公司在未来处于有利地位。该公司认为这将使其能够在数量和价格增长方面实现整个业务的平衡有机销售增长。虽然消费者在上一季度的物价上涨中保持了弹性，但10月份消费者信心降至5个月来的最低水平，这可能对该公司的销售构成不利影响。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：66美元至77美元。中性前景。