Technical Analysis – 29 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Carvana Co (CVNA US)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 43.0, Target 48.0, Stop 40.5

Philip Morris International Inc (PM US)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with constructive volume.
RSI is constructive and MACD just turned positive.
Long – Entry 95.6, Target 100.2, Stop 93.3

DBS (DBS SP)

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 33.1, Target 35.1 Stop 32.1

OCBC Bank (OCBC SP)

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 12.4 Target 13.0, Stop 12.1

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd (1099 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 22.6 , Target 24.0, Stop 21.9

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK)

Shares rose and closed above the 5dEMA. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 45.4, Target 48.6, Stop 43.8

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)

2Q23 Revenue: $7.32B, +8.1% YoY, beat estimates by $110M.
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.91, beat estimates by $0.04.
3Q23 Guidance: The company expects consolidated net sales for the third quarter will range from $7.3bn to $7.5bn, based on a mid-single-digit increase in same-store sales for the enterprise, and for the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. Diluted EPS for the quarter is estimated to be in the range of $0.94 to $1.04. FY23 Guidance: Consolidated net sales for full FY23 are now expected to range from $30.6bn to $30.9bn.
Comment: While the company performed better than expected over 2Q23, the management highlights that more consumers are already shifting to spending mostly on food and essentials. The company raised its full-year forecast for sales but narrowed its outlook for earnings, reflecting its expectations towards improved sales, but attributed the tighter profit range to more low-margin purchases such as food. The company also mentioned rising theft costs, and seeks to introduce anti-theft initiatives in the near term. Amidst the economic uncertainties, traffic for Dollar Tree will still be high as consumers look out for bargains, but mostly focus their spending on essentials and food. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $100 to $135. Neutral Outlook.

美元树 (DLTR)

23财年第二季营收：73.2亿美元, 同比增幅8.1%，超预期1.1亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.91美元，超预期0.04美元
23财年第三季指引：该公司预计第三季度的综合净销售额将在73亿美元至75亿美元之间，这是基于该企业、Dollar Tree和Family Dollar部门的同店销售额将出现中等个位数的增长。摊薄后每股收益预计在0.94美元至1.04美元之间。23财年指引：目前预计整个23财年的综合净销售额将在306亿美元至309亿美元之间。
短评：尽管该公司在2013年第二季度的表现好于预期，但管理层强调，越来越多的消费者已经转向主要在食品和必需品上支出。该公司上调了全年销售预期，但收窄了盈利前景，反映出其对销售改善的预期，但将利润区间收窄归因于食品等低利润率采购的增加。该公司还提到了盗窃成本的上升，并寻求在短期内引入防盗措施。在经济形势不明朗的情况下，Dollar Tree的客流量仍将很高，因为消费者希望买到便宜货，但他们主要把钱花在必需品和食品上。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：100美元至135美元。中性前景。

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU)

2Q23 Revenue: $317.1M,+42.3% YoY, beat estimates by $22.54M.
2Q23 GAAP EPADS: $1.02, miss estimates by $0.03.
FY23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: The company’s global users reached new milestones, with registered users and paying clients hitting 20.53 million and 1.59 million respectively. As of quarter end, the client retention rate remained at 98%, the total client assets hit US$59.5 billion, and the total trading volume was US$122.5 billion. As interest rate remains high, and considering the possibility of another rate hike, trading volume across the company’s different market is bound to decrease as investors shift to safer assets such as bonds. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $40 to $55. Neutral Outlook.

富途控股 (FUTU)

23财年第二季营收：3.171亿美元, 同比增幅42.3%，超预期2,254万美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股亏损：1.02美元，逊预期0.03美元
23财年指引：不提供指引。
短评：该公司的全球用户达到了新的里程碑，注册用户和付费客户分别达到2053万和159万。截至季末，客户保有率保持在98%，客户总资产595亿美元，总交易量1225亿美元。由于利率居高不下，而且考虑到再次加息的可能性，随着投资者转向债券等更安全的资产，该公司不同市场的交易量必然会减少。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：40美元至55美元。中性前景。

Weibo Corp (WB)

2Q23 Revenue: $440.2M, -2.2% YoY, miss estimates by $0.81M.
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.53, beat estimates by $0.02.
3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Monthly active Weibo users reached 599mn in June, a net addition of about 17mn YoY, with 95% of users joining on their mobile devices. Average daily active users were 258mn in June, a YoY net addition of about 5mn.The company sees a steady recovery for its advertising business but still sees headwinds in the China market. Consumption levels are low in China, and people look towards cost optimization. However, the China government is also expected to release stimulus to boost consumption within China, as well as provide more support to businesses to spur the economy. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $12 to $16. Neutral Outlook.

微博 (WB)

23财年第二季营收：4.402亿美元, 同比跌幅2.2%，逊预期8,100万美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.53美元，超预期0.02美元
23财年第三季指引：不提供指引。
短评：6月份，微博月活跃用户达到5.99亿，同比净增长约1,700万，其中95%的用户通过移动设备加入微博。6月份日均活跃用户为2.58亿，同比净增约500万。该公司预计其广告业务将稳步复苏，但仍面临中国市场的阻力。中国的消费水平较低，人们希望实现成本优化。不过，预计中国政府也将出台刺激措施，提振国内消费，并为企业提供更多支持，以刺激经济。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：12美元至16美元。中性前景。

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

2Q23 Revenue: $1.34b, -11.8% YoY, beat estimates by $10M.
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.33, beat estimates by $0.01.
3Q23 Guidance: Net revenue is expected to be $1.4bn +/- 5%. GAAP gross margin is expected to be 45.6%-48.0%. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 60.3%-61.3%. EPS forecasted to be $0.40.
Comment: Marvell Technologies reported a decline in Q2 revenue due to a weak enterprise market and economic uncertainty affecting demand for its chips and networking hardware. The uncertain economic outlook has led many companies to delay technology infrastructure upgrades. Marvell’s recovery in China has been hindered by US legislation restricting certain chip exports to the country. With so many macro headwinds affecting the company, the company’s short-term outlook remains foggy. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $48 to $60. Negative Outlook.

迈威尔科技 (MRVL)

23财年第二季营收：13.4亿美元, 同比跌幅11.8%，超预期1,000万美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.33美元，超预期0.01美元
23财年第三季指引：净收入预计为14亿美元（+/- 5%）。GAAP毛利率预计为45.6%至48.0%。Non-GAAP毛利率预计为60.3%至61.3%。每股收益预计为0.40美元。
短评：公司报告第二季度收入下降，原因是企业市场疲软，经济不确定性影响了对其芯片和网络硬件的需求。不确定的经济前景导致许多公司推迟了技术基础设施升级。美国立法限制向中国出口某些芯片，阻碍了公司在中国的复苏。由于如此多的宏观不利因素影响着该公司，该公司的短期前景仍不明朗。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：48美元至60美元。负面前景。

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)

2Q23 Revenue: $2.5B, +8.7% YoY, in-line with estimates.
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $6.02, beat estimates by $0.16.
FY23 Guidance: Revised revenue to $11.05bn to $11.15bn, vs consensus of $11.11B, from $11.0bn to $11.1bn and a profit of $25.10 to $25.60 per share. Additionally, Ulta Beauty expects full-year comparable sales to increase by 4.5% to 5.5%.
Comment: Ulta Beauty exceeded 2Q23 profit and revenue expectations. Comparable store sales increased by 8% during the quarter, a decrease from the 14.4% growth observed a year ago. The company attributed the healthy growth to the beauty category, as consumers continue their post-pandemic routines and expand their perception of beauty. Furthermore, with their loyalty program, customers are more sticky to the offerings of Ulta Beauty, opting to shop there instead of other brands. In fact, the company has stated that Loyalty members have a higher frequency of shopping visits and spend more money. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $420 to $470. Neutral Outlook.

犹他美容 (ULTA)

23财年第二季营收：25.0亿美元, 同比增幅8.7%，符合预期。
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：6.02美元，超预期0.16美元
23财年第三季指引：营收区间从110亿美元修正至111亿美元调整为110.5亿美元至111.5亿美元，市场预期为111.1亿美元，每股利润为25.10美元至25.60美元。此外，公司预计全年可比销售额将增长4.5%至5.5%。
短评：公司超过了第二季度利润和收入预期。同店销售额在本季度增长了8%，低于去年同期14.4%的增幅。该公司将健康增长归因于美容类，因为消费者继续他们在疫情后的日常生活，并扩大了他们对美的感知。此外，由于他们的忠诚计划，顾客对公司的产品更有粘性，他们选择在那里购物，而不是其他品牌。事实上，该公司表示，忠诚会员的购物频率更高，消费也更多。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：420美元至470美元。中性前景。

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)

2Q23 Revenue: $3.77B, -8.0% YoY, beat estimates by $80M.
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.84, beat estimates by $0.39.
FY23 Guidance: Revenue decline, including retail sales and credit card revenues, of 4.0 to 6.0 percent versus fiscal 2022, vs. consensus of $14.85B, including an approximately 250 basis point negative Impact from the wind-down of Canadian operations and an approximately 130 basis point positive impact from the 53rd week

EBIT margin (including the negative impact of charges related to the wind-down of Canadian operations) of 1.5 to 2.0 percent of sales.

Comment: Nordstrom reported positive earnings and same-store sales results. Despite an 8.3% drop in sales compared to the same period last year, the decline was attributed to the timing of its Anniversary Sale moving into the third quarter. The company’s Canadian operations were also wound down during the quarter. Without these impacts, sales would have fallen by nearly 4%. Nordstrom Rack stores outperformed the flagship brand, with a 4.1% sales decrease compared to an 11.9% drop in the Q1. The company maintained its 2023 outlook and emphasised the cautious consumer sentiment due to inflation and higher interest rates. Digital sales declined by nearly 13%, and inventory dropped by 17.5% YoY. Credit card revenues increased by 10% in 1H23, driven by partner agreements and lower credit card losses. Retail theft has also been an ongoing issue faced by the company that has to be resolved. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $14 to $20. Neutral Outlook.

诺德斯特龙 (JWN)

23财年第二季营收：37.7亿美元, 同比跌幅8.0%，超预期8,000万美元。
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.84美元，超预期0.39美元
23财年第三季指引：与2022财年相比，包括零售和信用卡收入在内的收入下降4.0%至6.0%，而市场预期为148.5亿美元，其中包括加拿大业务逐步关闭带来的约250个基点的负面影响，以及第53周带来的约130个基点的积极影响，息税前利润率（包括与加拿大业务缩减相关的费用的负面影响）为销售额的1.5%至2.0%。
短评：诺德斯特龙公布了积极的收益和同店销售业绩。尽管与去年同期相比，销售额下降了8.3%，但下降的原因是其进入第三季度的周年纪念销售。该公司在加拿大的业务也在本季度缩减。如果没有这些影响，销售额将下降近4%。诺德斯特龙货架门店的表现优于旗舰品牌，销售额下降4.1%，而第一季度的销售额下降了11.9%。该公司维持对2023年的展望，并强调由于通货膨胀和利率上升，消费者情绪谨慎。数字产品销量同比下降近13%，库存同比下降17.5%。受合作伙伴协议和信用卡亏损减少的推动，信用卡收入在2023年上半年增长了10%。零售盗窃也一直是该公司面临的一个需要解决的问题。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：420美元至470美元。中性前景。