KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 27 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 185, Target 205, Stop 175

Microstrategy Incorporated. (MSTR US)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 775, Target 855, Stop 735

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Venture Corp. Ltd. (VMS SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 above the 200dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 14.20, Target 15.20, Stop 13.70

Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd. (BTH SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.330, Target 0.360, Stop 0.315

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Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 5-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 8.26, Target 8.80, Stop 7.99

Lenovo Group Ltd (992 HK) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed above the 200dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 8.80, Target 9.48, Stop 8.46

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Li Auto Inc (LI)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $5.88B, +130% YoY, beat estimates by $380M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.93, beat estimates by $0.49
  • 1Q24 Guidance: The company forecast Q1 revenue of $4.4 billion to $4.53 billion, up 66%-71% vs. a year earlier in local currency terms, though that’s below analyst forecasts. Deliveries are expected to be 100,000-103,000, up 90%-96% vs. a year earlier but down from Q4’s record 131,805. That’s also under Wall Street targets.
  • Comment: Li Auto posted solid results, doubling net income from the previous quarter and further improving gross margin.  Revenue more than doubled YoY, and deliveries of Li Auto’s popular SUVs and other cars nearly tripled from a year ago to 131,805 units.  The results also mark the annual net profit for the company, showcasing an improving business model over the years, and could be a point of turnaround for the company.  However, the company forecasted a softer 1Q24, highlighting challenges in EV sales for the current quarter.  Other major EV producers also highlighted a softer demand for EVs in the current quarter after the surge in demand in 4Q23. The weak consumer sentiment and intense competition among EV producers are near-term headwinds for the company. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $38 to $48. Neutral Outlook.

理想汽车(LI)

  • 23财年第四季营收：58.8亿美元，同比增长130%，超预期3.8亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.93 美元，超预期0.49美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：该公司预计第一季度收入为44亿美元至45.3亿美元，按本币计算同比增长66%-71%，但低于分析师的预期。预计交付量为10万至10.3万辆，同比增长90%至96%，但低于第四季度创纪录的13,1805辆。这也是华尔街的目标之下。
  • 短评：理想汽车公布了稳健的业绩，净收入较上一季度翻了一番，毛利率进一步提高。收入同比增长了一倍多，理想汽车广受欢迎的SUV和其他汽车的交付量比一年前增加了近两倍，达到131,805辆。这一结果也标志着该公司的年度净利润，展示了多年来不断改善的商业模式，可能是该公司的转折点。其他主要电动汽车生产商也强调，继去年第四季度需求激增后，本季度电动汽车需求疲软。消费者信心疲软和电动汽车生产商之间的激烈竞争是该公司近期面临的不利因素。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：38美至48美元。中性前景。

Unity Software Inc (U)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $609.27M, +35.1% YoY, beat estimates by $55.73M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.66, miss estimates by $0.21
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects revenue of $415mn to $420mn for its strategic portfolio and $45mn to $50mn in Adjusted EBITDA for the total company. FY24 Guidance: Expects strategic portfolio revenue of between $1,760mn to $1,800mn, up 2% to 4% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA of $400mn to $425mn for the total company. Expect to accelerate revenue growth in 2H24 and exit the year with double-digit growth. Adjusted EBITDA margins to be over 25% with the full impact of the costs reset.
  • Comment: Unity Software delivered promising Q4 revenue, but its earnings fell short of estimates. Its adjusted EBITDA was $84mn and a 16% margin compared to 3Q23 which delivered $21mn and a 5% margin respectively. The company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. It announced a strategic shift, stating it would only provide revenue guidance for its core portfolio, including its engine, cloud and monetisation units. This decision followed its corporate restructuring plan, which involved cutting 1,800 jobs and discontinuing non-strategic efforts. Unity aims to optimise its cost structure while pursuing revenue growth and margin expansion. Despite challenges the company remains focused on increasing shareholder value and positioning for long-term success. In the current quarter, we anticipate that Unity’s restructuring efforts will not be reflected in its bottom line yet. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $22 to $30. Negative Outlook.

Unity软件 (U)

  • 23财年第四季营收：6.0927亿美元，同比增长35.1%，超预期5,573万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.66 美元，逊预期0.21美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：预计其战略投资组合的收入为4.15亿至4.2亿美元，整个公司的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润为4,500万至5,000万美元。24财年指引：预计战略投资组合收入在17.6亿美元至18亿美元之间，同比增长2%至4%。调整后的EBITDA为4亿美元至4.25亿美元。预计将在下半年加速营收增长，并以两位数的增长结束今年。在成本重置的全面影响下，调整后的EBITDA利润率超过25%。
  • 短评：Unity软件公司第四季度的营收令人看好，但其收益低于预期。其调整后的EBITDA为8,400万美元，利润率为16%，而第三季度的EBITDA和利润率分别为2,100万美元和5%。该公司发布了低于预期的本季度业绩指引。该公司宣布了一项战略转变，表示将仅为其核心投资组合（包括引擎、云和货币化部门）提供收入指导。这一决定是在公司重组计划之后做出的，该计划包括裁员1800人，并停止非战略性工作。Unity的目标是优化成本结构，同时追求收入增长和利润率扩张。尽管面临挑战，该公司仍然专注于增加股东价值和长期成功定位。在当前季度，我们预计Unity的重组努力将不会反映在其利润上。24财年第一季度建议交易区间22美至30美元。负面前景。

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