KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 26 January 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23.0, Target 25.0, Stop 22.0

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 57.8, Target 61.8, Stop 55.8

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Valuetronics Holdings Ltd. (VALUE SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 0.62, Target 0.68, Stop 0.59

Frencken Group Ltd. (FRKN SP)

  • Shares closed at a 52-weeks high with a surge in volume.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.40, Target 1.50, Stop 1.35

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Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holdings Co. Ltd. (2607 HK)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 11.50, Target 12.50, Stop 11.00

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Ltd (3320 HK)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.00, Target 5.40, Stop 4.80

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Blackstone Inc. (BX)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.29B, -24.6% YoY.
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.11, beat estimates by $0.16
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • 4Q23 Dividend: Blackstone declares a variable quarterly dividend of $0.94/share, 17.5% up from prior dividend of $0.80; Forward yield 3.12%; Payable Feb. 12; for shareholders of record Feb. 5; ex-div Feb. 2.
  • Comment: Blackstone has delivered impressive results, concluding a tumultuous year on a strong note. The report indicates a substantial uptick in fundraising and investment activity, positioning Blackstone favourably for future growth with an impressive $200 billion of available capital. As the world’s largest alternative asset manager, the company presently oversees assets exceeding $1 trillion. Its resilient investment performance, marked by notable appreciation and gross returns, underscores its proficiency in creating positive economic impact and long-term value for investors. Anticipated rate cuts further suggest potential benefits, potentially driving up asset prices, enhancing portfolio valuations, and yielding stronger returns for investors. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $140. Positive Outlook.

黑石集团(BX)

  • 24财年第四季营收：12.9亿美元, 同比跌幅24.6%
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.11美元，超预期0.16美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引
  • 23财年第四季度股息：黑石宣布每股0.94美元的可变季度股息，比之前0.80美元的股息高出17.5%；远期收益率3.12%；2月12日付息；2月5日股东登记；2月2日除息。
  • 短评：黑石交出了令人印象深刻的业绩，以强劲的基调结束了动荡的一年。报告显示，融资和投资活动大幅增加，使黑石集团拥有令人印象深刻的2,000亿美元可用资本，有利于未来的增长。作为全球最大的另类资产管理公司，该公司目前管理的资产超过1万亿美元。其富有弹性的投资表现，以显著的升值和总回报为标志，突显了其为投资者创造积极经济影响和长期价值的能力。预期的降息进一步暗示了潜在的好处，可能会推高资产价格，提高投资组合估值，并为投资者带来更大的回报。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：115美至140美元。积极前景。

Intel Corp. (INTC)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $15.4B, +10.0% YoY, beat estimates by $230M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.54, beat estimates by $0.09
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expected Revenue of $12.2bn to $13.2bn vs $14.6bn consensus; expecting 1Q24 EPS attributable to Intel of -$0.25 (Non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.13 to $0.32 consensus).
  • Comment: Despite surpassing market expectations in the latest results, the company’s 1Q24 outlook fell below market projections. Management anticipates a somewhat sub-seasonal performance in the first quarter for their core product businesses, PC and server chips, while highlighting material inventory corrections in Mobileye and PSG. Although the overall PC industry has experienced a two-year downturn, recent signs of growth, coupled with a rise in consumer sentiment and expectations of rate cuts, are expected to drive demand for PC and server chips. The company aims to achieve enhanced efficiencies in 2024 and beyond through the implementation of a new internal foundry model, aimed at fostering transparency, accountability, and higher returns on owners’ capital. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $40 to $55. Positive Outlook.

英特尔(INTC)

  • 23财年第四季营收：154亿美元, 同比增幅10.0%，超预期2.3亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.54美元，超预期0.09美元
  • 24财年第一季指引：预期营收为122亿至132亿美元，预期为146亿美元；预计第一季度归属于英特尔的每股亏损为0.25美元（市场预期Non-GAAP每股收益为0.13美元至0.32美元)。
  • 短评：尽管最新业绩超出了市场预期，但该公司第一季度的前景低于市场预期。管理层预计，其核心产品业务个人电脑和服务器芯片在第一季度的表现略低于季节性表现，同时强调Mobileye和PSG的材料库存调整。尽管整个个人电脑行业经历了两年的低迷，但最近出现的增长迹象，加上消费者信心的增强和降息预期，预计将推动对个人电脑和服务器芯片的需求。该公司的目标是通过实施新的内部代工模式，在2024年及以后提高效率，旨在提高透明度、问责制和所有者资本的更高回报。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：40美至55美元。积极前景。

Visa Inc. (V)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $8.6B, +8.9% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.41, beat estimates by $0.07
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect constant currency revenue growth in the mid-single-digits, at around 4%-6%, compared with Wall Street expectations of about 3%. At current foreign exchange rates, the currency is expected to be about a one-point headwind to revenue growth. Expects about $12bn in free cash flow.
  • 2Q24 Dividend: Visa declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend.; Payable March 1; for shareholders of record Feb. 9; ex-div Feb. 8.
  • Comment: In 1Q24, the company experienced a revenue increase fueled by year-over-year growth in payment volume, cross-border transactions, and processed transactions. Notably, payments volume and processed transactions rose by 8% and 9%, respectively. However, analysts note a decline in U.S. payment volume growth in January, particularly in debit transactions. Management views this January decline as an isolated occurrence and not indicative of broader spending issues. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the United States rebounded to 78.8 in January, the highest level since July 2021, signalling increased consumer confidence likely to contribute to higher payment volumes in the near term. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $265 to $290. Positive Outlook.

威士(V)

  • 24财年第一季营收：86.0亿美元, 同比增幅8.9%，超预期5,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.41美元，超预期0.07美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计按固定汇率计算的收入增幅将在4%至6%左右，为中等个位数，而华尔街的预期为3%左右。按照目前的汇率，预计人民币将对营收增长造成约1个百分点的不利影响。预计自由现金流约为120亿美元。
  • 24年第二季度股息：公司宣布派发每股0.52美元的季度股息。3月1日付息：2月9日为股东登记；2月8日除息。
  • 短评：在第一季度，由于支付量、跨境交易和已处理交易的同比增长，该公司实现了收入增长。值得注意的是，支付金额和处理交易分别增长了8%和9%。然而，分析人士指出，美国1月份的支付量增长有所下降，尤其是借记交易。管理层认为，1月份的下降是一个孤立事件，并不表明存在更广泛的支出问题。美国1月份密歇根消费者信心指数反弹至78.8，为2021年7月以来的最高水平，表明消费者信心的增强可能会在短期内推动支付量的增加。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：265美至290美元。积极前景。

KLA Corp. (KLAC)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $2.49B, -16.6% YoY, beat estimates by $30M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.16, beat estimates by $0.28
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Total revenue expected in the range of $2.39bn +/- $125mn; Non-GAAP gross margins expected to be in a range of $4.93 +/- $0.60. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in a range of $5.26 +/- $0.60.
  • Comment: KLA Corp has projected third-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, indicating subdued demand in the electronics sector. Despite an increasing need for equipment for AI chip production, companies like KLA are contending with ongoing weaknesses in specific markets. Management anticipates persistently challenging market conditions in the short term, competing with other chipmaking equipment suppliers such as Applied Materials and ASML Holding. However, a recovery in the memory chips market is anticipated this year, following price rebounds in the December quarter attributed to production cuts. The company also foresees a stronger second half of the calendar year for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) investment compared to the first half. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $590 to $650. Neutral Outlook.

科磊(KLAC)

  • 24财年第二季营收：24.9亿美元, 同比跌幅16.6%，超预期3,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.16美元，超预期0.28美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：总营收预计在23.9亿美元以，+/- 1.25亿美元；Non-GAAP毛利率预计在4.93美元，+/-0.60美元。Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益预计在5.26美元，+/-0.60美元。
  • 短评：公司预计第三季度营收低于华尔街预期，显示电子行业需求低迷。尽管对人工智能芯片生产设备的需求不断增加，但像科磊这样的公司正在与特定市场的持续疲软作斗争。管理层预计，短期内市场环境将持续充满挑战，与应用材料和阿斯麦控股等其他芯片制造设备供应商竞争。然而，由于减产，去年第四季度内存芯片价格出现反弹，预计今年内存芯片市场将出现复苏。该公司还预计，与上半年相比，今年下半年的晶圆制造设备投资将更加强劲。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：590美至650美元。中性前景。

Western Digital Corp. (WDC)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $3.03B, -2.6% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.69, beat estimates by $0.41
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Revenue of between $3.2bn and $3.4bn, above the old Street consensus at $3.15bn; Non-GAAP EPS in the range of $(0.10) to $0.20, vs. -$0.29 consensus which includes $30mn to $40mn of underutilization-related charges in HDD.
  • Comment: Western Digital Corp has reported results surpassing expectations, showcasing the effectiveness of the structural changes implemented over the past few years and the executed strategy, particularly in their flash and HDD businesses. The management expresses confidence in their proactive inventory management, diverse product range, precise control over product costs through focused research and development, and enhanced business agility. This strategic approach is expected to not only improve through-cycle profitability but also mitigate the impact of business cycles in the future. Despite a two-year downturn in the overall PC industry, the company anticipates increased demand for its products due to recent signs of industry growth, coupled with a positive shift in consumer sentiment and expectations of rate cuts. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $50 to $70. Positive Outlook.

西部数据(WDC)

  • 24财年第二季营收：30.3亿美元, 同比跌幅2.6%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.69美元，超预期0.41美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：营收在32亿至34亿美元之间，高于华尔街此前31.5亿美元的预期；Non-GAAP每股收益范围为-0.10至0.20美元，而市场预期为-0.29美元，其中包括3,000万至4,000万美元的硬盘利用率不足相关费用。
  • 短评：西部数据公司公布了超出预期的业绩，显示了过去几年实施的结构性改革和执行战略的有效性，特别是在闪存和硬盘业务方面。管理层对他们的前瞻性库存管理、多样化的产品范围、通过重点研究和开发对产品成本的精确控制以及增强的业务敏捷性表达了信心。预计这种战略方法不仅可以提高整个周期的盈利能力，还可以减轻未来商业周期的影响。尽管整个PC行业经历了两年的低迷，但该公司预计，由于近期行业增长的迹象，加上消费者信心的积极转变和利率下调的预期，对其产品的需求将会增加。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：50美至70美元。积极前景。

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