Technical Analysis – 24 November 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Burlington Stores Inc (BURL US)

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 170, Target 180, Stop 165

eBay Inc. (EBAY US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 41.0, Target 44.0, Stop 39.5

Medtecs International (MED SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.133, Target 0.143, Stop 0.128

Best World International Ltd. (BEST SP)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 1.74, Target 1.90, Stop 1.66

Baidu Inc (9888 HK)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with rising volume.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 118.0, Target 127.0, Stop 113.5

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)

Shares rose and closed above the 200dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 328, Target 352, Stop 316

Lowe’s Companies Inc (LOW)

3Q23 Revenue: $20.47B, -12.8% YoY, misses estimates by $390M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.06, beat estimates by $0.04
FY23 Guidance: Total sales of approximately $86bn (previously $87bn– $89bn), Comparable sales expected to be down approximately -5% as compared to prior year (previously down -2% to -4%), Adjusted operating income as a percentage of sales (adjusted operating margin) of approximately 13.3% (previously 13.4% to 13.6%), Interest expense of approximately $1.4bon (previously $1.5bn), Adjusted effective income tax rate of approximately 25%, Adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $13.00 (previously $13.20 to $13.60), Capital expenditures of up to $2bn.
Comment: Lowe’s has revised its full-year sales forecast after a significant 13% YoY dip in Q3 sales, primarily linked to reduced spending on DIY projects. The CEO highlighted an unexpected pullback in customer spending on discretionary and high-value projects. Although sales to home professionals rose, the overall demand for home improvement is showing signs of cooling. Comparable sales saw a 7.4% decline, driven by reduced spending on discretionary DIY projects, partially offset by increased professional customer sales. Online sales also fell by 4%, reflecting price pressures on discretionary spending. In response, Lowe’s aims to enhance its appeal to price-sensitive customers during the holiday season by emphasising value and savings. The company’s outlet stores, offering discounted items like scratched or dented patio furniture and appliances, have proven popular, with a new outlet opening in Q3, marking the 15th location. Looking ahead, with inflationary pressures still relatively high, it is anticipated that customers will continue to remain cautious about discretionary spending. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $185 to $205. Neutral Outlook.

劳氏 (LOW)

23财年第三季营收：204.7亿美元, 同比跌幅12.8%，逊预期3.9亿美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：3.06美元，超预期0.04美元
23财年指引：总销售额约为860亿美元(之前为870亿至890亿美元)，可比销售额预计比去年下降约5%(之前为下降2%至4%)，调整后营业收入占销售额的百分比(调整后营业利润率)约为13.3%(之前为13.4%至13.6%)，利息费用约为14亿美元(之前为15亿美元)，调整后有效所得税税率约为25%。调整后的摊薄每股收益约为13.00美元(之前为13.20美元至13.60美元)，资本支出高达20亿美元。
短评：在第三季度销售额同比大幅下降13%之后，劳氏修正了全年销售预测，这主要与DIY项目的支出减少有关。这位首席执行官强调，客户在可自由支配和高价值项目上的支出意外减少。尽管对专业人士的销售有所上升，但对家居装修的总体需求却显示出降温的迹象。由于可自由支配的DIY项目支出减少，可比销售额下降了7.4%，部分被专业客户销售额的增加所抵消。网上销售也下降了4%，反映了可自由支配支出的价格压力。作为回应，劳氏的目标是通过强调价值和节省，在假期期间提高对价格敏感的客户的吸引力。该公司的直销店提供有划痕或凹陷的露台家具和电器等折扣商品，事实证明，这些商品很受欢迎，第三季度新开了一家直销店，这是第15家分店。展望未来，由于通胀压力仍然相对较高，预计客户将继续对可自由支配的支出保持谨慎。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：185美元至205美元。中性前景。

Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)

3Q24 Revenue: $9.76B, -7.8% YoY, miss estimates by $140M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.29, beat estimates by $0.09
4Q24 Guidance: Expect comparable sales to decline in the range of 3.0% to 7.0%, Q4 FY24 non-GAAP operating income rate to be in a range of 4.7% to 5.0%, which compares to a rate of 4.8% last year. FY24 Guidance: Revenue of $43.1bn to $43.7bn, which compares to prior guidance of $43.8bn to $44.5bn, Comparable sales decline of 6.0% to 7.5%, which compares to prior guidance of a decline of 4.5% to 6.0%, Enterprise non-GAAP operating income rate of 4.0% to 4.1%, which compares to prior guidance of 3.9% to 4.1%, Non-GAAP effective income tax rate of approximately 24.0%, which compares to prior guidance of approximately 24.5%, Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $6.00 to $6.30, which compares to prior guidance of $6.00 to $6.40, Capital expenditures of approximately $825mn, which compares to prior guidance of approximately $850mn.
Comment: In Q3, Best Buy beat earnings estimates but fell short on revenue. The company lowered its full-year sales outlook, citing softer consumer electronics demand and the unpredictable nature of consumer spending amidst inflation and interest rate increases. Its CEO noted the company’s readiness for the holiday season, emphasising promotions for budget-conscious shoppers. Due to softening demand from customers, the company faced a drop in net income to $263mn, with a 6.9% YoY decline in comparable sales. Despite lower merchandise demand, Best Buy achieved higher profitability through its membership program and improved service margins. Demand for home goods has moderated from the previous year, customers are spending less money on discretionary purchases due to inflationary pressures and are choosing to spend on necessities and experiences instead. However, with the holiday season coming up, we expect the higher-income customers to spend more which may offset the lack of spending from the general population. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $75. Neutral Outlook.

百思买 (BBY)

24财年第三季营收：97.6亿美元, 同比跌幅7.8%，逊预期1.4亿美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.29美元，超预期0.09美元
24财年第四季指引：预计可比销售额将下降3.0%至7.0%，24财年第四季度Non-GAAP营业利润率将在4.7%至5.0%之间，而去年的比率为4.8%。24财年指引：营收431亿美元至437亿美元，此前预期为438亿美元至445亿美元；可比销售额下降6.0%至7.5%，此前预期为下降4.5%至6.0%；企业Non-GAAP营业利润率为4.0%至4.1%，此前预期为3.9%至4.1%；Non-GAAP有效所得税税率约为24.0%，此前预期为24.5%；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益为6.00美元至6.30美元；资本支出约为8.25亿美元，而之前的指导约为8.5亿美元
短评：第三季度，百思买的收益超过预期，但收入不及预期。该公司下调了全年销售预期，理由是消费电子产品需求疲软，以及在通货膨胀和利率上升的情况下，消费者支出的不可预测性。该公司首席执行官指出，该公司已经为假日季节做好了准备，并强调了针对预算紧张的购物者的促销活动。由于客户需求疲软，公司净收入下降至2.63亿美元，可比销售额同比下降6.9%。尽管商品需求下降，但百思买通过其会员计划和提高的服务利润率实现了更高的盈利能力。家庭用品的需求较上年有所放缓，由于通胀压力，消费者在可自由支配的购买上的支出减少，转而选择在必需品和体验上花钱。然而，随着假日季节的到来，我们预计高收入的客户会花更多的钱，这可能会抵消普通人群消费的不足。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：60美元至75美元。中性前景。

Baidu Inc (BIDU)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.72B, +3.3% YoY, vs estimates of $4.71B
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $2.80, vs estimates of $2.34
4Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided. Expect its AI-centric business and product strategy to set the stage for sustained multi-year revenue and profit expansion within its ERNIE and ERNIE Bot ecosystem.
Comment: Baidu reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue, reaching 34.45bn yuan (US$4.72bn). Its net income rose to 6.68bn yuan from 5.21 bn yuan in the previous quarter. The company’s CEO stated that Baidu has sufficient AI chips stockpiled to navigate current US technology export restrictions for up to two years, minimising immediate impact. Although Baidu’s AI cloud revenue declined by 2%, it anticipates positive growth in Q4 due to increased demand for generative AI services. Baidu’s Ernie large language model (LLM) is expected to receive progressive upgrades, and the company is exploring alternative chip sources to counter US export restrictions. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Baidu remains resilient, with online marketing revenue up 5%. The company’s Apollo Go robotaxi business achieved 821,000 rides in Q3, contributing to the evolving landscape of autonomous taxis in China. Moreover, we expect additional revenue growth from the Ernie bot, benefiting from the company’s significant reserve of AI chips. This reserve enables the continuous evolution of the bot, further reinforced by the recent launch of a paid version of the Ernie bot in November. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $110 to $125. Positive Outlook.

百度 (BIDU)

23财年第三季营收：47.2亿美元, 同比增幅3.3%，预期为47.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.80美元，超预期2.34美元
23财年第四季指引：没有提供指导。预计其以人工智能为中心的业务和产品战略将为其文心一言生态系统内持续多年的收入和利润扩张奠定基础。
短评：百度公布的第三季度收入好于预期，达到344.5亿元人民币(合47.2亿美元)。其净收入从上一季度的52.1亿元上升至66.8亿元。该公司首席执行官表示，百度有足够的人工智能芯片库存，可以应对目前美国技术出口限制长达两年，最大限度地减少直接影响。尽管百度的人工智能云收入下降了2%，但由于对生成式人工智能服务的需求增加，百度预计第四季度将出现正增长。百度的文心一言大型语言模型(LLM)预计将得到逐步升级，该公司正在探索替代芯片来源，以应对美国的出口限制。尽管面临宏观经济挑战，百度仍然保持弹性，其在线营销收入增长了5%。该公司的Apollo Go自动驾驶出租车业务在第三季度实现了82.1万次乘坐，为中国自动驾驶出租车的发展做出了贡献。此外，我们预计文心一言的额外收入将增长，受益于该公司大量的人工智能芯片储备。这种储备使文心一言能够不断发展，最近11月推出的文心一言付费版本进一步加强了这一点。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：110美元至125美元。积极前景。

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

3Q24 Revenue: $18.12B, +205.6% YoY, beat estimates by $2.01B
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.02, beat estimates by $0.63
4Q24 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be $20.00bn, plus or minus 2% vs $17.82B consensus, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.5% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $3.17bn and $2.20bn, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately $200mn, excluding gains and losses from non-affiliated investments. GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be 15.0%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any discrete items.
Comment: Nvidia posted a solid set of results for the quarter. However, the company highlighted headwinds in the current quarter due to export restrictions affecting sales to organisations in China and other countries. While the company expects sales in these regions to decline, it will be offset by stronger growth in other regions. As more companies seek to incorporate AI capabilities into their businesses or platforms, they will continue to see strong demand for their GPUs, with demand outpacing supply as Gen AI adoption broadens across industry verticals. However, the uncertain macroeconomic conditions may also see some companies cutting back on costs, which may impact the demand for Nvidia’s products in the near term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $450 to $550. Neutral Outlook.

英伟达 (NVDA)

24财年第三季营收：181.2亿美元, 同比增幅205.6%，超预期20.1亿美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：4.02美元，超预期0.63美元
24财年第四季指引：营收预计为200亿美元，上下浮动2%，而市场预期为178.2亿美元，GAAP和Non-GAAP毛利率预计分别为74.5%和75.5%，上下浮动50个基点。GAAP和Non-GAAP运营费用预计分别约为31.7亿美元和22亿美元。GAAP和Non-GAAP其他收入和费用预计收入约为2亿美元，不包括非关联投资的损益。GAAP和Non-GAAP税率预计为15.0%，正负1%，不包括任何离散项目。
短评：英伟达公布了本季度的稳定业绩。然而，该公司强调了当前季度的不利因素，原因是出口限制影响了对中国和其他国家组织的销售。虽然该公司预计这些地区的销售额将下降，但其他地区的强劲增长将抵消这一影响。随着越来越多的公司寻求将人工智能功能整合到他们的业务或平台中，该公司将继续看到对其GPU的强劲需求，随着通用人工智能在各个垂直行业的普及，需求将超过供应。然而，不确定的宏观经济环境也可能会看到一些公司削减成本，这可能会影响短期内对英伟达产品的需求。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：450美元至550美元。中性前景。

HP Inc. (HPQ)

4Q23 Revenue: $13.82B, -6.6% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90, in-line with estimates
1Q24 Guidance: HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.60 to $0.70 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $0.76 to $0.86 vs $0.85 consensus. Fiscal 2024 first quarter non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates exclude $0.16 per diluted share, primarily related to restructuring and other charges, acquisition and divestiture charges, amortisation of intangible assets, non-operating retirement-related credits, tax adjustments and the related tax impact on these items. FY24 Guidance: HP estimates GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $2.68 to $3.08 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS to be in the range of $3.25 to $3.65 vs $3.30 consensus. Fiscal 2024 non-GAAP diluted net EPS estimates exclude $0.57 per diluted share, primarily related to restructuring and other charges, acquisition and divestiture charges, amortisation of intangible assets, non-operating retirement-related credits, tax adjustments and the related tax impact on these items. For fiscal 2024, HP anticipates generating free cash flow in the range of $3.1 to $3.6bn.
Comment: HP’s weaker-than-expected revenue showcases the weakness of the demand for PCs and printers. However, the company remains optimistic for FY2024, seeing a rebound in demand going forward. CEO Enrique Lores sees PC demand getting a boost from Microsoft’s termination of support for Windows 10 in 2025, as well as from the debut of AI PCs, which he expects next summer. The company also expects to resume their share buyback plans in the current quarter. The company was also one of the 27 companies that have just been granted approval to manufacture tech hardware in India. However, consumer demand still remains uncertain in the near term as consumers cut back on spending amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $25 to $30. Neutral Outlook.

惠普 (HPQ)

23财年第四季营收：138.2亿美元, 同比跌幅6.6%，逊预期4,000万美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.9美元，符合预期
24财年第一季指引：惠普预计GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.60美元至0.70美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄后每股净收益在0.76美元至0.86美元之间，而市场预期为0.85美元。2024财年第一季度Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估不包括每股摊薄0.16美元，主要涉及重组和其他费用、收购和剥离费用、无形资产摊销、非经营性退休相关抵免、税收调整以及对这些项目的相关税收影响。24财年指引：惠普预计GAAP摊薄净每股收益在2.68美元至3.08美元之间，Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益在3.25美元至3.65美元之间，而市场预期为3.30美元。2024财年Non-GAAP摊薄净每股收益预估不包括每股摊薄0.57美元，主要涉及重组和其他费用、收购和剥离费用、无形资产摊销、非经营性退休相关抵免、税收调整以及对这些项目的相关税收影响。对于2024财年，惠普预计将产生31亿至36亿美元的自由现金流。
短评：惠普低于预期的营收显示出个人电脑和打印机需求的疲软。然而，该公司对2024财年仍持乐观态度，认为未来需求将出现反弹。首席执行官恩里克·洛雷斯(Enrique Lores)认为，微软将在2025年终止对Windows 10的支持，以及人工智能个人电脑的首次亮相（预计明年夏天），将提振个人电脑需求。该公司还预计将在本季度恢复股票回购计划。该公司也是刚刚获准在印度生产科技硬件的27家公司之一。然而，消费者需求在短期内仍然不确定，因为在宏观经济不确定的情况下，消费者削减了支出。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：25美元至30美元。中性前景。

Nordstrom Inc (JWN)

3Q23 Revenue: $3.32B, -6.5% YoY, miss estimates by $100M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25, beat estimates by $0.12
FY23 Guidance: Revenue decline, including retail sales and credit card revenues vs. consensus of $14.75B, of 4.0% to 6.0% versus fiscal 2022, including an approximately 250 basis point negative impact from the wind-down of Canadian operations and an approximately 130 basis point positive impact from the 53rd week. EBIT margin (including the negative impact of charges related to the wind-down of Canadian operations) of 1.8 to 2.1% of sales. Adjusted EBIT margin (excluding charges related to the wind-down of Canadian operations) of 3.8 to 4.1% of sales. Income tax rate of approximately 21%, including an approximately 800 basis point favourable impact primarily from the one-time Canada charges. EPS (including the negative impact of charges related to the wind-down of Canadian operations) of $0.74 to $0.94, excluding the impact of share repurchase activity, if any. Adjusted EPS (excluding charges related to the wind-down of Canadian operations) of $1.90 to $2.10 vs. consensus of $1.98, excluding the impact of share repurchase activity, if any.
Comment: Nordstrom Inc. delivered a stronger than expected earnings, and saw improvements in its gross margins. Active, beauty and accessories segments were leading sales growth. However, the company experienced headwinds from lower consumer demand. Consumers remain picky about their shopping habits, postponing large purchases and prioritising necessities. While the upcoming holidays might see an increase in consumer demand, many retailers still highlight cautious consumer spending amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $13 to $18. Neutral Outlook.

诺德斯特龙 (JWN)

23财年第三季营收：33.2亿美元, 同比跌幅6.5%，逊预期1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.25美元，超预期0.12美元
23财年指引：与2022财年相比，包括零售销售和信用卡收入在内的收入下降幅度为4.0%至6.0%，而市场预期为147.5亿美元，其中包括加拿大业务逐步关闭带来的约250个基点的负面影响，以及第53周带来的约130个基点的积极影响。息税前利润率（包括加拿大业务缩减相关费用的负面影响）为销售额的1.8%至2.1%。调整后息税前利润率（不包括与加拿大业务缩减相关的费用）为销售额的3.8%至4.1%。所得税税率约为21%，其中包括主要来自一次性加拿大费用的约800个基点的有利影响。每股收益（包括与加拿大业务缩减相关的费用的负面影响）为0.74美元至0.94美元，不包括股票回购活动（如有）的影响。调整后每股收益（不包括与加拿大业务缩减相关的费用）为1.90美元至2.10美元，而市场预期为1.98美元，不包括股票回购活动的影响（如果有的话）。
短评：诺德斯特龙公司公布了好于预期的业绩，毛利率也有所提高。活动、美容和配饰领域的销售增长领先。然而，该公司遭遇了消费者需求下降的阻力。消费者仍然对自己的购物习惯很挑剔，他们推迟大件购物，优先购买必需品。虽然即将到来的假期可能会增加消费者需求，但在宏观经济不确定的情况下，许多零售商仍强调谨慎的消费者支出。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：13美元至18美元。中性前景。