KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 22 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Antero Resources Corp. (AR US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a high since Nov 2023 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 25.4, Target 28.4, Stop 23.9

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO US)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23.5, Target 25.5, Stop 22.5

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Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

  • Shares closed at a high since Oct 2023.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 43.2, Target 45.2, Stop 42.2

The Hour Glass Ltd. (HG SP)

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.60, Target 1.72, Stop 1.54

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Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd (2318 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 34.8, Target 38.2, Stop 33.1

China Life Insurance Co Ltd (2628 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a one month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 9.74, Target 10.52, Stop 9.35

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Walmart Inc (WMT)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $173.4B, +5.7% YoY, beat estimates by $4.14B
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.80, beat estimates by $0.15
  • 4Q23 Dividend: Walmart declares $0.2075/share quarterly dividend, 9.2% increase from prior dividend; Forward yield 1.46%.
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects consolidated net sales to increase 4.0% to 5.0%, leap year estimated to benefit approximately 100bps; Expects consolidated operating income to increase 3.0% to 4.5%; Adjusted EPS in the range of $1.48 to $1.56 pre-split, $0.49 to $0.52 post-split. FY24 Guidance: Expects consolidated net sales to increase 3.0% to 4.0%; Consolidated operating income to increase 4.0% to 6.0%; Adjusted EPS expected to be in the range of $6.70 to $7.12 pre-split; $2.23 to $2.37 post-split.
  • Comment: Walmart delivered robust financial results, benefitting from consumers choosing value-focused retailers like Walmart to optimize their holiday budgets. The company observed an expanded market share across all product categories. Additionally, Walmart disclosed its acquisition of TV manufacturer Vizio, a strategic move aimed at advancing its lucrative advertising business. Gaining control of the Vizio platform extends the reach for advertisers partnering with Walmart, leveraging Vizio’s SmartCast system boasting 18 million active accounts. This acquisition enables Walmart to offer innovative television and in-home entertainment experiences. Amid January’s persistently higher-than-expected inflation, consumers are inclined to shift towards more affordable goods emphasizing value. Improved consumer sentiment also contributes to a positive consumption outlook for the U.S. economy in the short term. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $185. Positive Outlook.

沃尔玛(WMT)

  • 23财年第四季营收：1,734 亿美元，同比增长 5.7%，超预期 41.4 亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.80 美元，超出预期 0.15 美元
  • 23财年第四季股息: 沃尔玛宣布季度股息为每股 0.2075 美元，较之前股息增加 9.2%； 远期收益率1.46%。
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：预计合并净销售额将增长4.0个百分点至5.0个百分点，闰年预计将带来大约100个基点的收益。预计合并营业收入将增长3.0个百分点至4.5个百分点。调整后每股收益在拆股前为1.48美元至1.56美元之间，拆股后为0.49美元至0.52美元之间。2024 财年指引：公司预计合并净销售额将增长3.0%至4.0%，合并营业收入将增长4.0%至6.0%。调整后每股收益预计在拆股前为6.70美元至7.12美元，拆股后为2.23美元至2.37美元。
  • 短评：沃尔玛公布了亮眼的财务成绩，这得益于消费者在假期期间选择像沃尔玛这样的注重实惠的零售商来优化他们的预算。该公司在所有产品类别的市场份额都有所增长。此外，沃尔玛还宣布收购电视制造商 Vizio，这是一项旨在推进其利润丰厚的广告业务的战略举措。通过收购 Vizio，沃尔玛可以覆盖到更多与之合作的广告商，利用拥有 1800 万活跃用户的 Vizio 的 SmartCast 系统。这将使沃尔玛能够提供创新的电视和家庭娱乐体验。在 1 月份通胀持续高于预期的情况下，消费者倾向于选择更实惠的商品，注重性价比。消费者情绪的改善也有助于美国经济短期内消费前景乐观。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：170美至185美元。积极前景。

Home Depot Inc. (HD)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $34.79B, -2.9% YoY, beats estimates by $120M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.82, beat estimates by $0.04
  • 4Q23 Dividend: Home Depot declares $2.25/share quarterly dividend, 7.7% increase from prior dividend of $2.09; Forward yield 2.48%; Payable March 21; for shareholders of record March 7; ex-div March 6.
  • FY24 Guidance: Total sales growth of approximately 1.0% including the 53rd week, with the 53rd projected to add approximately $2.3bn to total sales; Comparable sales to decline approximately 1.0% for the 52week period; Approximately 12 new stores; Gross margin of approximately 33.9%; Operating margin of approximately 14.1%; 53-week diluted EPS percent growth of approximately 1.0%, with 53rd week expected to contribute approximately $0.30 of diluted EPS.
  • Comment: The company posted strong results despite a slowdown in demand, experiencing a decline in quarterly sales due to a moderation in home-improvement spending from pandemic-induced peaks. Management characterizes 2023 as a year of moderation, which is expected to persist in 2024, albeit to a lesser extent. The onset of higher interest rates in 2024, compared to the previous year, is anticipated to exert continued pressure on demand for larger projects. The lingering effects of accelerated demand during the pandemic, coupled with some project deferrals, may influence demand into 2024. As mortgage rates rise, consumers are less inclined to pursue new home purchases, redirecting spending toward essential items in the current high-interest rate environment. However, there is an expectation for an increase in home building spending in the latter half of 2024 following the commencement of rate cuts. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $342 to $382. Neutral Outlook.

家得宝 (HD)

  • 23财年第四季营收：347.9 亿美元，同比-2.9%，超预期 1.2 亿美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.82 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元
  • 23财年第四季股息: 家得宝 (Home Depot) 宣布季度股息为每股 2.25 美元，较之前的 2.09 美元增加 7.7%； 远期收益率2.48%； 3 月 21 日付款； 对于 3 月 7 日登记在册的股东； 3月6日除名。
  • 2024 财年指引：公司整体销售额增长了大约百分之几，其中第53周预计增加几十亿美金。同期销售额下降了大约百分之几。新开设了大约十家门店。毛利率和营业利润率分别大约为百分之几和百分之几。摊薄后每股收益增长了大约百分之几，预计第53周将贡献大约0.3美元的摊薄后每股收益。
  • 短评：公司业绩强劲，尽管需求放缓，季度销售额下降，原因是疫情导致的房屋装修支出从高峰回落。管理层将2023年描述为温和的一年，预计2024年仍将温和，但程度会减弱。与去年相比，2024年更高的利率预计将继续对大型项目需求施加压力。疫情期间需求激增的持续影响，加上一些项目延期，可能会影响到2024年的需求。随着抵押贷款利率上升，消费者不太愿意购买新房，在当前高利率环境下将支出转向必需品。不过，预计随着利率下调开始，2024年下半年房屋建筑支出将有所增加。24财年第一季度建议交易区间342美至382美元。中性前景。

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $1.98B, +19.3% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.46, beat estimates by $0.16
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Total billings in the range of $2.30bn to $2.35bn, representing YoY growth of between 2% and 4%; Total revenue in the range of $1.95bn to $1.98bn, representing YoY growth of between 13% and 15%. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $1.24 to $1.26, using 347mn to 351mn shares outstanding. 2024 Outlook: Total billings in the range of $10.10bn to $10.20bn, representing YoY growth of between 10% and 11%; Total revenue in the range of $7.95bn to $8.00bn representing YoY growth of between 15% and 16%; Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 26.5% to 27.0%; Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $5.45 to $5.55 using 345mn to 347mn shares outstanding.; Adjusted FCF margin in the range of 38.0% to 39.0%.
  • Comment: Palo Alto Networks exceeded expectations in its reported results but adjusted its revenue forecast downward, citing customers reducing their spending on IT security and raising demands amid the company’s strategic shift. Despite a rise in online security breaches, the company warned of “spending fatigue” in the cybersecurity sector, with customers becoming more discerning as the company pursues accelerated growth. The prevailing high-interest rate environment has prompted the company to enhance efficiency in capital expenditure. Nevertheless, management identifies future growth prospects in artificial intelligence (AI) as customers increasingly seek the responsible integration of this technology into their IT infrastructure. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $250 to $330. Neutral Outlook.

帕洛阿尔托网络 (PANW)

  • 2024财年第二季营收：19.8 亿美元，同比增长 19.3%，超预期 1000 万美元
  • 2024财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.46 美元，超预期 0.16 美元
  • 2024 财年第三季指引：总计费金额在几十亿美金之间，同比增长百分之几；总收入在几十亿美金之间，同比增长百分之几。摊薄后非美国通用会计准则净利润每股在几美元之间，使用几亿股流通股。2024 财年指引: 总计费在101亿到102亿美金之间，同比增长10%到11%；总收入在79.5亿到80亿美金之间，同比增长15%到16%；非公认会计准则营业利润率在26.5%到27.0%之间；摊薄后非公认会计准则每股净利润在5.45到5.55美金之间，使用3.45亿到3.47亿股流通股；自由现金流利润率在38.0%到39.0%之间。
  • 短评：虽然网络安全漏洞频发，但网络安全公司帕洛阿尔托网络业绩公布超预期，却下调了收入预期，原因是客户在公司战略转型期间减少了IT安全支出并提出更高要求。尽管网络安全漏洞增加，但该公司警告网络安全行业出现了“支出疲劳”，因为随着公司追求快速增长，客户变得更加谨慎。高利率环境促使公司提高资本支出效率。尽管如此，管理层认为未来人工智能 (AI) 具有增长前景，因为客户越来越多地寻求将这项技术负责任地集成到其 IT 基础设施中。。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：250美至330美元。中性前景。

SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $316.04M, -64.5% YoY, miss estimates by $8.96M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.92, beat estimates by $0.42
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expects revenue to be in the range of $175mn to $215mn. Non-GAAP gross margin expected to be within the range of -3% to 1%; Non-GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of $122mn to $130mn; Revenue from the solar segment to be within the range of $160mn to $200mn; Gross margin from the solar segment expected to be within the range of 1% to 5%.
  • Comment: The company disclosed a 4Q23 adjusted loss smaller than anticipated, but it presented a 1Q24 revenue forecast well below expectations, signaling an anticipated further decline in sales. With revenue dropping over 60% YoY, the solar-power industry faces challenges of low demand and escalating inventories, compounded by a high-interest-rate environment and regulatory alterations in California. The persistent inflation rate in January, higher than expected, is expected to dissuade consumers from the company’s products, as they shift spending more towards essential items in response to the challenging macroeconomic conditions. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $64 to $84. Neutral Outlook.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)

  • 24财年第四季营收：3.1604 亿美元，同比下降64.5%，低于预期896 万美元
  • 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：- 0.92 美元，超出预期 0.42 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：公司预计收入为1亿7500万至2亿1500万美元。扣除非公认会计准则(Non-GAAP)的毛利率预计在-3%至1%之间；扣除非公认会计准则(Non-GAAP)的运营支出预计在1亿2200万至1亿3000万美元之间；太阳能业务的收入预计在1亿6000万至2亿美元之间；太阳能业务的毛利率预计在1%至5%之间。
  • 短评：该公司公布的第四季度调整后亏损低于预期，但第一季度收入预测远低于预期，这表明销售可能进一步下滑。太阳能行业面临需求低迷、库存增加的挑战，再加上高利率环境和加州监管法规的变化，收入同比下降超过60%。由于宏观经济环境严峻，消费者将把更多支出用于必需品，因此预计1月份持续高于预期的通胀率将抑制消费者购买该公司产品。。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：64美至84美元。中性前景。

Caesars Entertainment Inc. (CZR)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $2.83B, +0.4% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: –$0.34, miss estimates by $0.23
  • FY24 Guidance: No revenue guidance provided. Expects CapEx, excluding Danville, to be $800mn.
  • Comment: While Caesars Entertainment missed analyst expectations with a slight quarterly revenue shortfall and wider-than-expected loss per share, its digital segment emerged as a bright spot. Digital revenue surged 28% YoY, driving a 10% adjusted EBITDA margin and ultimately contributing to stable overall EBITDA. This momentum continued throughout 2023, with digital revenue skyrocketing 78% to reach $1bn, generating over $700mn in improved EBITDA for the segment. As the company capitalises on the booming iCasino market and completes key construction projects, Caesars is poised for further growth in 2024, with the digital segment leading the charge. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $40 to $42.5. Neutral Outlook.

凯撒娱乐 (CZR)

  • 23财年第四季营收：28.3 亿美元，同比增长 0.4%，低于预期 3000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：- 0.34 美元，低于预期0.23 美元
  • 2024 财年指引：没有提供收入指导。预计资本支出（不包括丹维尔）为 8 亿美元。
  • 短评：尽管凯撒娱乐在季度收入和每股亏损上未能达到分析师预期，但其数字娱乐部门表现亮眼。数字收入同比增长28%，调整后EBITDA利润率达到10%，最终使整体EBITDA保持稳定。这种势头在2023年全年持续，数字收入飙升78%至10亿美元，为该部门带来了超过7亿美元的EBITDA改善。随着公司抓住蓬勃发展的 iCasino 市场并完成关键的建设项目，凯撒娱乐有望在 2024 年实现进一步增长，其中数字娱乐部门将起到带头作用。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：40美至42.5美元。中性前景。

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