KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 21 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA and touched the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 76.4, Target 80.0, Stop 74.6

Target Corp (TGT US)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a rise in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 133.8, Target 146.0, Stop 127.7

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Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (ST SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 2.56, Target 2.68, Stop 2.50

Singapore Post Ltd (SPOST SP)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA touched the 50dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.505 Target 0.535, Stop 0.490

Nayuki Holdings Ltd. (2150 HK)

  • Shares closed just below the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.90, Target 6.50, Stop 5.60

Want Want China Holdings Ltd. (151 HK)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.30, Target 5.60, Stop 5.15

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $15.68B, -13.7% YoY, beat estimates by $300M
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPADR: $1.14, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $16.7B and $17.5B, which represents a +9.1% sequential increase at the midpoint. Expects a 10% decline in FY23 sales and capital expenditure to be at the lower end of a previously forecast range of $32B to $36B.
  • Comment: The decline in both revenue and net income was attributed to global economic conditions affecting end-market demand and customers’ inventory adjustments. TSM expects a 10% decline in revenue for the year, and its Q3 revenue outlook anticipates a 9.1% sequential increase. In 2023, the company faces challenges in gross margins due to lower capacity utilisation, and its 2023 capital expenditure is expected to be towards the lower end of the previously forecasted range of $32B to $36B. The production start for its new Arizona plant has been pushed back to 2025 due to a shortage of skilled workers. TSM has been sending technicians to train local skilled workers, but production of the N4 process technology is now expected to be delayed until 2025. Despite global economic challenges affecting chip demand in FY23, we anticipate growth in the longer term, driven by 5G, high performance computing and AI chip manufacturing. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $95 to $110. Neutral Outlook.

台积电 (TSM)

  • 23财年第二季营收：156.8亿美元, 同比跌幅13.7%，超预期3亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.14美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计营收将在167亿美元至175亿美元之间，环比增长9.1%。预计23财年销售额和资本支出下降10%，处于先前预测范围320亿美元至360亿美元的低端。
  • 短评：营收和净利润双双下降，主要原因是全球经济状况影响了终端市场需求和客户的库存调整。公司预计今年的收入将下降10%，其第三季度的收入预期将环比增长9.1%。2023年，由于产能利用率较低，该公司面临毛利率的挑战，其2023年的资本支出预计将接近先前预测的320亿至360亿美元范围的低端。由于技术工人短缺，其亚利桑那州新工厂的生产已推迟到2025年。公司一直在派遣技术人员培训当地的熟练工人，但现在预计N4工艺技术的生产将推迟到2025年。尽管全球经济挑战影响了23财年的芯片需求，但我们预计在5G、高性能计算和人工智能芯片制造的推动下，芯片需求将长期增长。第三季度建议交易区间：95美元至110美元。中性前景。

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $14.1B, +4.7% YoY, beat estimates by $370M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.92, beat estimates by $0.33
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Expects adjusted earnings per diluted share to be between $0.85 and $0.95 ($0.91 consensus). Raised expected FY23 adjusted EPS guidance to between $3.00 and $3.75 per diluted share from $2.50 to $3.50.
  • Comment: American Airlines Group reported robust Q2 earnings, marked by the return of domestic margins to 2019 levels and strong international margins. The company also raised its forecasts, factoring in the impact of anticipated new labour agreements. American Airlines achieved an average load factor of approximately 86% for the quarter and reduced its total debt by $387 million, showing progress towards its goal of reducing total debt by $15 billion by 2025. However, despite these positive results, investors expressed concern over the conservative full-year guidance despite consistent earnings beats. The company’s revenue forecast suggested that domestic airline ticket prices may have peaked, leading to worries about offsetting cost pressures. Nevertheless, with the decline in fuel costs, there is potential for the company to continue performing well in the short term, provided that demand remains strong. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $17 to $22. Positive Outlook.

美国航空 (AAL)

  • 23财年第二季营收：141亿美元, 同比增幅4.7%，超预期3.7亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.92美元，超预期0.33美元  
  • 23财年第三季度指引：预计调整后每股摊薄收益在0.85美元至0.95美元之间，市场预期为0.91美元。23财年调整后每股盈利预期从2.50美元上调至3.75美元至3.50美元。
  • 短评：美国航空集团公布了强劲的第二季度收益，其国内利润率恢复到2019年的水平，国际利润率也很强劲。考虑到预期中的新劳工协议的影响，该公司还上调了预期。美国航空本季度的平均载客率约为86%，总债务减少了3.87亿美元，朝着2025年减少150亿美元总债务的目标取得了进展。然而，尽管有这些积极的结果，投资者对保守的全年预期表示担忧，尽管收益持续好于预期。该公司的收入预测表明，国内机票价格可能已经见顶，这引发了人们对抵消成本压力的担忧。然而，随着燃料成本的下降，只要需求保持强劲，该公司在短期内仍有可能继续表现良好。第三季度建议交易区间：17美元至22美元。积极前景。

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $25.53B, +6.4% YoY, beat estimates by $860M
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.80, beats estimates by $0.18
  • FY23 Guidance: Expects revenue of $98.8B-$99.8B from prior guidance of $97.9B-$98.9B vs. $98.91B consensus; Adj. EPS of $10.70-$10.80 from prior guidance of $10.60-$10.70 from vs. $10.65 consensus.
  • Comment: Johnson & Johnson delivered impressive Q2 results, exceeding expectations with strong performances in its Pharmaceutical and MedTech segments. The company raised its FY23 guidance, excluding COVID-19 vaccine sales, despite the FDA revoking the vaccine’s emergency use authorisation. The MedTech segment showed a remarkable 13% YoY growth, while the pharma division recorded 3% YoY growth, driven by drugs like Stelara and the COVID-19 vaccine. Consumer Health also performed well, reporting $4.0B in sales with 5% YoY growth, mainly from over-the-counter products like Tylenol and smoking cessation items. The company is optimistic about the rebound of joint replacement and other surgeries post-COVID-19, and it foresees strong demand for its cancer drugs. The company is prepared to defend itself vigorously in the face of ongoing talc product-related lawsuits and bankruptcy proceedings. Johnson & Johnson’s confidence in its pharmaceutical sales remains high, and the separation from its consumer health unit Kenvue is making progress. Looking ahead we anticipate continued growth in its pharmaceutical and medtech segments. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $165 to $180. Positive Outlook.

强生公司 (JNJ)

  • 23财年第二季营收：255.3亿美元, 同比增幅6.4%，超预期8.6亿美元  
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.8美元，超预期0.18美元  
  • 23财年指引：预期营收为998亿至998亿美元，先前指引为979亿至989亿美元，市场预期为998亿美元；预估每股收益为10.70至10.80美元，先前指引预估为10.60至10.70美元，市场预期为10.65美元。
  • 短评：强生公司公布了令人印象深刻的第二季度业绩，其制药和医疗技术部门的强劲表现超出了预期。尽管FDA撤销了该疫苗的紧急使用授权，但该公司上调了不包括COVID-19疫苗销售的23财年指导。医疗技术部门同比增长13%，而制药部门在Stelara和COVID-19疫苗等药物的推动下，同比增长3%。消费者健康业务也表现良好，销售额达到40亿美元，同比增长5%，主要来自泰诺(Tylenol)和戒烟产品等非处方产品。该公司对新冠肺炎后关节置换术和其他手术的反弹持乐观态度，并预计其抗癌药物的需求将会强劲。面对正在进行的与滑石粉产品相关的诉讼和破产程序，该公司准备积极捍卫自己。强生公司对其药品销售的信心依然很高，其与消费者保健部门Kenvue的分离也在取得进展。展望未来，我们预计其制药和医疗技术部门将继续增长。第三季度建议交易区间：165美元至180美元。积极前景。