Technical Analysis & Earnings – 20 July 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Under Amour, Inc. (UAA US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 8.3, Target 9.1, Stop 7.9

The Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC US)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 36.0, Target 39.0, Stop 34.5

United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP)

Shares tested the 200dEMA and closed at a two-month high above the 50dEMA, with an incline in volume.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 28.30, Target 30.00, Stop 27.45

Thai Beverage PCL (THBEV SP)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume.
Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
Long – Entry 0.585 Target 0.620, Stop 0.567

Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (1787 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 16.0, Target 17.4, Stop 15.3

CMOC Group Ltd. (3993 HK)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 4.70, Target 5.10, Stop 4.50

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS)

2Q23 Revenue: $10.89B, -8.2% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.08, miss estimates by $1.06
FY23 Guidance: No specific guidance. The company thinks that activity is picking up in equity capital markets as well as a revival of client discussions on mergers and acquisitions.
Comment: The company’s net profit fell 58% YoY, attributed to weak deal making as well as write-downs in its consumer business and real estate. The company is considering the sales of its lending platform Greensky, as well as looking for opportunities to exits credit card partnership with Apple. The company saw activity picking up in equity capital markets and a revival of client discussions on mergers and acquisitions, as the past weeks saw better inflation data as well as client sentiments. Going forward, with interest rates set to hike another 25bps, it puts more pressure for buyers due to higher borrowing costs, and demand buyers to conduct more due diligence. Signs that inflation is slowing down might spur on dealmaking and prompt more IPOs listing in the upcoming months. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $330 to $370. Positive Outlook.

高盛集团 (GS)

23财年第二季营收：108.9亿美元, 同比跌幅8.2%，超预期1.6亿美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：3.08美元，逊预期1.06美元
23财年指引：没有具体的指导。该公司认为，股票资本市场的活动正在增加，客户对并购的讨论也在复苏。
短评：该公司净利润同比下降58%，原因是交易撮合业务疲软，以及消费者业务和房地产业务的减记。该公司正在考虑出售其借贷平台Greensky，并寻找机会退出与苹果的信用卡合作关系。过去几周，随着通胀数据和客户情绪好转，股票资本市场的活动有所增加，客户对并购的讨论也重新活跃起来。展望未来，利率将再上调25个基点，由于借贷成本上升，买家面临更大压力，并要求买家进行更多尽职调查。通胀放缓的迹象可能会刺激交易，并在未来几个月推动更多新股上市。第三季度建议交易区间：330美元至370美元。积极前景。

ASML Holding NV (ASML)

2Q23 Revenue: €6.9B, +27.8% YoY, beat estimates by €160M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: €4.93, beat estimates by €0.31
3Q23 Guidance: ASML expects Q3 2023 net sales between €6.5 billion and €7.0 billion and a gross margin of around 50%. ASML expects 2023 net sales growth towards 30% compared to 2022 vs. prior guidance of growth over 25%.
Comment: The company raised its annual sales guidance but also warned of a delayed recovery in the semiconductor industry. Management highlights that customers across different market segments are currently more cautious due to continued macroeconomic uncertainties, and therefore expect a later recovery of their markets. The company is recently caught in more export restrictions by Netherlands that will restrict ASML’s chipmaking machines from being sent to China. With China being ASML’s largest customers, sales is likely to fall with theses export restrictions in place. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $650 to $730. Negative Outlook.

阿斯麦 (ASML)

23财年第二季营收：69亿欧元, 同比增幅27.8%，超预期1.6亿欧元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：4.93欧元，超预期0.31欧元
23财年第三季度指引：预计第三季度净销售额在65亿欧元至70亿欧元之间，毛利率约为50%。预计2023年的净销售额增长率将达到30%，而之前的指引增长率为超过25%。
短评：该公司上调了年度销售预期，但也警告称，半导体行业的复苏将被推迟。管理层强调，由于宏观经济的持续不确定性，不同细分市场的客户目前更加谨慎，因此预计其市场将在晚些时候复苏。该公司最近受到荷兰的更多出口限制，这些限制将限制ASML的芯片制造机器运往中国。由于中国是ASML最大的客户，这些出口限制的实施可能会导致销售额下降。第三季度建议交易区间：56美元至65美元。中性前景。

Tesla Inc (TSLA)

2Q23 Revenue: $24.93B, +47.3% YoY, beat estimates by $200M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.91, beats estimates by $0.09
FY23 Guidance: The company continues to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, but expects Q3 production to be a little bit down because of summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades.
Comment: The precise specs and start of delivery dates for the Cybertruck remain unclear during the quarter’s earning call. Although the revenue and deliveries were higher than expected, the company reported lower margins in the second quarter as a result of reduced average sales prices “due to mix and pricing” of the cars it has been selling, and the cost of ramping up production of battery cells it designed in-house, known as the 4680 cells, among other factors. Management also highlights that vehicle production would slow down during Q3 due to shutdowns for factory improvements. Going forward, the company still has strong inventory levels to cater to customer demand for the near term, but the high interest rate environment would also make it hard for the company to raise its selling prices after numerous price cuts. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $260 to $300. Neutral Outlook.

特斯拉 (TSLA)

23财年第二季营收：249.3亿美元, 同比增幅47.3%，超预期2.0亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.91美元，超预期0.09美元
23财年指引：该公司今年的目标仍是交付180万辆汽车，但预计第三季度的产量将略有下降，因为夏季许多工厂因升级而停工。
短评：Cyberturck的具体规格和开始交付日期在季度财报电话会议上仍不清楚。尽管营收和交付量都高于预期，但该公司报告称，第二季度利润率较低，原因是其销售车型的“组合和定价”降低了平均销售价格，以及增加其内部设计的4680电池产量的成本，以及其他因素。管理层还强调，由于工厂停产改善，第三季度汽车产量将放缓。展望未来，展望未来，该公司仍有强大的库存水平，以满足客户近期的需求，但高利率环境也将使该公司在多次降价后难以提高销售价格。第三季度建议交易区间：260美元至300美元。中性前景。

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

2Q23 Revenue: $8.19B, +2.8% YoY, miss estimates by $100M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.29, beats estimates by $0.44
3Q23 Guidance: Revenue of $8.52B ($8.68B consensus), up 7.5% Y/Y, operating income of $1.89B and Diluted EPS of $3.52 vs. $3.23 consensus.
Comment: In the quarter, the company experienced an increase of 5.9 million subscribers, indicating that its main 2023 objectives, which include tackling password sharing and introducing a more affordable $6.99 per month advertising tier, are attracting new subscribers. Netflix anticipates adding around 6 million more subscribers, and it expects revenue to accelerate in the second half of the year as it starts to fully realize the advantages of its password-sharing crackdown and observes consistent growth in its ad-supported plan. Going forward, with inflation showing signs of cooling, as well as the growing popularity of streaming services, we can expect to see an uptick in the number of subscribers for Netflix, driving revenue for the company. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $420 to $500. Positive Outlook.

奈飞 (NFLX)

23财年第二季营收：81.9亿美元, 同比增幅2.8%，逊预期1.0亿美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：3.29美元，逊预期0.44美元
23财年第三季度指引：营收85.2亿美元，市场预期为86.8亿美元，同比增长7.5%，营运收入18.9亿美元；摊薄每股收益3.52美元，市场预期为3.23美元。
短评：在本季度该公司的用户增加了590万，这表明其2023年的主要目标，包括解决密码共享问题和推出更实惠的每月6.99美元的广告套餐，正在吸引新用户。Netflix预计将增加约600万用户，并预计下半年营收将加速增长，因为它开始充分意识到打击密码共享的优势，并观察到其广告支持计划的持续增长。展望未来，随着通货膨胀显示出降温的迹象，以及流媒体服务的日益普及，我们可以预期Netflix的订户数量会增加，从而推动该公司的收入。23年第三季度建议交易区间：420至500美元。中性前景。

International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

2Q23 Revenue: $15.5B, -0.3% YoY, miss estimates by $70M
2Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.18, beat estimates by $0.76
FY23 Guidance: Expects full-year revenue growth at 3% to 5%, assuming constant currency, slightly above the 2.9% that analysts were expecting. IBM also expects full-year free cash flow to be about $10.5B, above the $9.7B that analysts were anticipating.
Comment: IBM missed expectations due to a decline in sales of its mainframe computers as businesses reduced tech spending. IT companies have warned of more challenges as rising inflation prompts businesses to cut tech budgets, impacting the industry that experienced rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. IBM’s mainframe computer business shrank by 14.6%, and growth in its RedHat software and consulting segment also slowed due to a tougher IT spending environment. However, the company’s software business grew 7.2% to $6.6 billion during the quarter, supported by its new AI platform, watsonx. Looking ahead, as clients continue to look towards digitalisation to optimise workflows, IBM will need to continue its focus on the execution of its hybrid cloud and AI strategy while innovating and expanding partnerships in order to meet its FY23 targets. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $130 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

国际商用机器 (IBM)

23财年第二季营收：155亿美元, 同比跌幅0.3%，逊预期7,000万美元
23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.18美元，超预期0.76美元
23财年指引：假设汇率不变，预计全年营收增长3%至5%，略高于分析师预期的2.9%。IBM还预计全年自由现金流约为105亿美元，高于分析师预期的97亿美元。
短评：由于企业削减技术支出，IBM的大型计算机销售出现下滑，因此未能达到预期。随着通货膨胀加剧促使企业削减技术预算，IT公司警告称将面临更多挑战，这影响了在COVID-19大流行期间快速增长的行业。IBM的大型计算机业务萎缩了14.6%，其RedHat软件和咨询业务的增长也因IT支出环境的恶化而放缓。然而，在其新的人工智能平台watsonx的支持下，该公司的软件业务在本季度增长了7.2%，达到66亿美元。展望未来，随着客户继续寻求数字化来优化工作流程，IBM将需要继续专注于执行其混合云和人工智能战略，同时创新和扩大合作伙伴关系，以实现其23财年的目标。23年第三季度建议交易区间：130至140美元。中性前景。

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

2Q23 Revenue: $14.18B, +17.1% YoY, beat estimates by $250M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.03, beat estimates by $0.98
3Q23 Guidance: Expects about 16% over last year and with estimated revenue growth of as much as 13% during the same period in 2022 and adjusted earnings per share of between $3.85 and $4.35 for 3Q23, far above analysts’ estimates of $3.70 a share. Expects full-year 2023 adjusted EPS to now be $11-$12 vs. consensus of $9.65.
Comment: United Airlines reported record quarterly earnings and anticipates a strong third quarter, driven by increased travel, especially in international flights. Despite facing capacity losses due to flight disruptions at its Newark hub from thunderstorms, United’s results surpassed expectations, benefiting from robust demand. International margins exceeded 2019 levels, as the airline expanded international capacity by 27% compared to the previous year. International revenue contributes about 40% of total sales and is growing faster than domestic revenue. Net income significantly increased to $1.08B YoY, aided by a 26% reduction in fuel costs. Though revenue per available seat mile dipped slightly, capacity rose by 17.5% YoY. The CEO outlined plans to improve operations at Newark Liberty International Airport, while a preliminary labour deal was reached with pilots’ union, offering raises of up to 40% over four years to address the pilot shortage issue. The airline pre-paid $1B of high-coupon debt. The United Next strategy will continue to positively impact customers, employees, and shareholders, evidenced by the high volume of passengers which reflects a promising continual of the post-pandemic travel demand trend. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $56 to $62. Positive Outlook.

联合航空 (UAL)

23财年第二季营收：141.8亿美元, 同比增幅17.1%，超预期2.5亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.03美元，超预期0.98美元
23财年第三季度指引：预计全年营收比去年增长约16%，预计第三季营收同比增长13%，23年第三季度调整后每股收益在3.85美元至4.35美元之间，远高于分析师预期的每股3.70美元。预计2023年全年调整后每股收益为11美元至12美元，而市场预期为9.65美元。
短评：美国联合航空公司(United Airlines)公布了创纪录的季度收益，并预计第三季度将出现强劲增长，这主要得益于旅行尤其是国际航班的增加。尽管纽瓦克枢纽因雷暴导致航班中断而面临运力损失，但受益于强劲的需求，美联航的业绩超出了预期。由于该航空公司的国际运力比去年增加了27%，国际利润率超过了2019年的水平。国际收入约占总销售额的40%，其增长速度快于国内收入。净利润同比大幅增长至10.8亿美元，这得益于燃料成本降低26%。尽管每可用座位英里收入略有下降，但运力同比增长17.5%。这位首席执行官概述了改善纽瓦克自由国际机场运营的计划，同时与飞行员工会达成了初步劳资协议，为解决飞行员短缺问题，将在四年内加薪40%。该航空公司预付了10亿美元的高息债券。美联航的战略将继续对客户、员工和股东产生积极影响，大量乘客反映了大流行后旅行需求趋势的持续前景。23年第三季度建议交易区间：56至62美元。积极前景。

Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS)

2Q23 Revenue: $2.54B, +141.9% YoY, beat estimates by $160M
2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.46, beat estimates by $0.98
FY23 Guidance: No guidance was provided.
Comment: With the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has experienced increased visitations at its properties. Macau visitation in the second quarter reached 6.7M people, 68% of pre-pandemic levels. LVS remains optimistic about the recovery in all gaming and non-gaming segments in Macau, having invested $2 billion in two Macau properties during the pandemic. LVS expects further recovery in travel and tourism spending from China and the wider region while staying committed to investments and growth opportunities and returning capital to stockholders. Moreover, the integrated resort Marina Bay Sands achieved a record mass gaming revenue level in the second quarter, with adjusted property earnings surpassing pre-Covid-19 figures. Despite renovation disruptions affecting margins in Singapore, LVS reported a robust recovery in travel and tourism spending in both Macau and Singapore during the quarter, though air travel from China remains below pre-pandemic levels. Looking ahead we expect continued recovery in both Macau and Singapore. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $58 to $66. Positive Outlook.

金沙航空 (LVS)

23财年第二季营收：25.4亿美元, 同比增幅141.9%，超预期1.6亿美元
23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.46美元，超预期0.98美元
23财年指引：不提供指引。
短评：随着旅游业的持续复苏，拉斯维加斯金沙集团旗下酒店的游客数量有所增加。澳门第二季度的游客人数达到670万，是疫情前水平的68%。金沙集团对澳门所有博彩业和非博彩业的复苏仍持乐观态度，在疫情期间已在澳门的两处物业投资20亿美元。金沙集团预计中国及更广泛地区的旅游和旅游支出将进一步复苏，同时将继续致力于投资和增长机会，并向股东返还资本。此外，滨海湾金沙综合度假村在第二季度实现了创纪录的大规模博彩收入水平，调整后的房地产收益超过了疫情前的数据。尽管装修中断影响了新加坡的利润率，而来自中国的航空旅行仍低于疫情前的水平，但澳门和新加坡的旅游和旅游支出在本季度强劲复苏。展望未来，我们预计澳门和新加坡的旅游业将继续复苏，因为它们欢迎更多的游客，并增加客流量。23年第三季度建议交易区间：56至66美元。积极前景。