KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 16 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Antero Resources Corp. (AR US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed at a high since Dec 2023 above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 23, Target 25, Stop 22

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY US)

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  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 59.5, Target 63.5, Stop 57.5

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DBS Bank (DBS SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 33.10, Target 34.30, Stop 32.50

Keppel Corp. (KEP SP)

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  • Shares closed at a high since Aug 2023 with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 7.30, Target 7.60, Stop 7.15

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd. (780 HK)

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  • Shares closed at high since Oct 2023 with constructive volume. The 20dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 17.00, Target 18.40, Stop 16.30

Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd (27 HK)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 44.0, Target 48.0, Stop 42.0

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Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $3.06B, +10.5% YoY, miss estimates by $80M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.27, beat estimates by $0.06
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect total attributable gold production of 3,900 – 4,300 (000s ozs).
  • Share buyback: Barrick’s Board of Directors has authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1.0bn of the Company’s outstanding common shares over the next 12 months at prevailing market prices.
  • Comment: Barrick Gold missed Q4 revenue estimates but projected higher gold production in 2024 after exceeding Q4 profit expectations driven by strong prices and output. Gold production in FY24 is expected to range between 3.9mn and 4.3mn ounces, above the 4.05mn ounces produced in FY23, with the Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea set to contribute 50,000 to 70,000 ounces. Despite challenges, the company reported Q4 adjusted profit of $0.27 per share, surpassing analysts’ estimates, and announced a dividend of $0.10 per share. The company also announced a new share repurchase program of up to $1bn. Barrick Gold remains focused on growth and sustainability to enhance shareholder value, which will further solidify its position as an industry leader. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $14 to $16. Positive Outlook.

巴里克黄金(GOLD)

  • 23财年第四季营收：3.6 亿美元，同比增长 10.5%，低于预期8万美金
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.27 美元，超预期 0.06 美元
  • 2024 财年指引：预计总可归属金产量为 3,900 – 4,300 (千盎司)。
  • 股票回购: 董事会批准了一项新的股票回购计划，将在未来 12 个月内以市场价格回购最多价值 10 亿美元的本公司流通股。
  • 短评：虽然第四季度未能达到收入预期，但受益于强劲的金价和产量，巴里克黄金公司的整体利润超过预期，并预计2024年黄金产量将高于2023年。预计未来一年的黄金产量将介于390万盎司至430万盎司之间，高于2023年的405万盎司，其中巴布亚新几内亚的Porgera金矿预计将贡献5万至7万盎司。尽管面临挑战，该公司仍实现每股0.27美元的第四季度调整后利润，超出分析师预期，并宣布每股0.10美元的股息。该公司还宣布了一项新的价值高达10亿美元的股票回购计划。巴里克黄金将继续专注于增长和可持续发展，以提升股东价值，进一步巩固其行业领导者的地位。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：144美至16美元。积极前景。

Twilio Inc (TWLO)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.08B, +5.9% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.86, beat estimates by $0.28
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Revenue between $1,025mn and $1,035mn. YoY organic revenue growth to be between 5% to 6% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.56 to $0.60.
  • Comment: Despite exceeding analysts’ estimates for fourth-quarter sales and adjusted operating income, Twilio faces challenges in maintaining investor excitement and addressing activist investor pressure. The company has focused on enhancing execution, optimizing capital allocation, and streamlining costs, resulting in significant financial improvements. Despite challenges with the Twilio Segment business, Twilio Communications performed well, with revenue reaching $1.001bn in Q4. The company introduced innovative products like Twilio Voice Intelligence and CustomerAI solutions, driving customer value and market recognition. Twilio reported lower-than-expected revenue projections for the current quarter, marking the first outlook since the CEO’s departure. The company cited underperformance in its Segment business unit and delayed the annual forecast until next month. Its new CEO emphasized a focus on improving performance by streamlining operations and ending smaller businesses. Twilio’s struggles with revenue growth have led to speculation about potential structural changes, including divestment or spinoff of its Segment unit. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $62 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

Twilio Inc (TWLO)

  • 23财年第四季营收：1.08 亿美元，同比增长 5.9%，超出预期 4000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.86 美元，超预期 0.28 美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：尽管第四季度销售额和调整后的营业收入超出分析师预期，Twilio仍面临着保持投资者信心和应对激进投资者压力的挑战。公司专注于提高执行力，优化资本配置，以及简化成本，取得了显著的财务改善。尽管 Twilio Segment 业务面临挑战，但 Twilio Communications 表现良好，第四季度收入达到 10.01 亿美元。公司推出了创新产品，例如 Twilio Voice Intelligence 和 CustomerAI 解决方案，提高了客户价值和市场认可度。Twilio 发布了当前季度低于预期的收入预测，这是CEO 离职后的首次展望。公司归咎于其 Segment 业务部门表现不佳，并推迟了年度预测到下个月。新任 CEO 强调通过简化运营并结束小型业务来提高业绩。Twilio 在收入增长方面遇到的困难引发了对其潜在结构性变化的猜测，包括剥离或分拆其 Segment 业务部门。24财年第一季度建议交易区间62美至70美元。中性前景。

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $12.8B, -5.9% YoY, beat estimates by $100M
  • 2Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.87, beat estimates by $0.03
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Revenue expected to be in the range of $12.1bn to $12.3bn vs $13.1bn consensus; Non-GAAP EPS expected to be $0.84 to $0.86 vs $0.92 consensus. FY24 Guidance: Revenue expected to be in the range of $51.5bn to $52.5bn vs $54.47 consensus; Non-GAAP EPS expected to be $3.68 to $3.74 vs consensus of $3.87.
  • 2Q24 Dividend: Cisco Systems declares $0.40/share quarterly dividend, 2.6% increase from prior dividend of $0.39; Forward yield 3.19%; Payable April 24; for shareholders of record April 4; ex-div April 3.
  • Comment: Despite reporting a solid set of results, Cisco Systems has adjusted its annual revenue target downward amid the challenges of a tough economic environment. Management acknowledges the sustained weakness in demand from telecommunications and cable service provider customers. The market foresees continued pressure on the demand for Cisco’s products, driven by telecom industry clients curbing spending to address their excess inventory of networking gear. In response to these market conditions, the company has announced plans to reduce its workforce by 5%, equating to the elimination of approximately 4,250 jobs. However, amidst these challenges, Cisco is strategically pivoting towards growth by placing a significant focus on artificial intelligence and forming a partnership with Nvidia. This collaboration entails the integration of Cisco’s ethernet with Nvidia’s widely adopted technology, particularly in data centers and AI applications, signaling Cisco’s proactive approach to innovation and expansion. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $44 to $50. Neutral Outlook.

思科系统 (CSCO)

  • 2024财年第二季营收：128 亿美元，同比下降5.9%，超预期 1 亿美元
  • 2024财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.87 美元，超预期 0.03 美元
  • 2024 财年第三季指引：公司预计收入在 121 亿美元到 123 亿美元之间，低于分析师普遍预期的 131 亿美元；非通用会计准则每股收益预计为 0.84 美元至 0.86 美元，低于分析师普遍预期的 0.92 美元。2024 财年指引：公司预期收入将在 515 亿至 525 亿美元之间，低于市场一致预期的 54.47 亿美元；扣除非公认会计准则后每股收益预计为 3.68 至 3.74 美元，低于市场一致预期的 3.87 美元。
  • 2024财年第二季股息: 思科系统宣布每股季度股息增加到0.40美元，比之前0.39美元的股息增长2.6%。预期收益率为3.19%，将于4月24日支付给4月4日股东名册记录的股东，除权日为4月3日。
  • 短评：思科系统尽管成绩稳健，但考虑到严峻的经济环境，下调了全年收入目标。管理层承认来自电信和有线电视服务提供商客户的需求持续疲软。市场预计思科产品需求将继续承压，原因是电信行业客户正在削减开支，以解决网络设备库存过剩的问题。为了应对市场状况，公司宣布计划将员工人数减少5%，相当于裁员约4250人。然而，在这些挑战中，思科正在通过大力发展人工智能并与英伟达建立合作伙伴关系，战略性地转向增长。此次合作将思科的以太网技术与英伟达在数据中心和AI应用领域广受欢迎的技术相结合，标志着思科积极主动进行创新和扩张。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：44美至50美元。中性前景。

HubSpot Inc (HUBS)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $581.91M, +23.9% YoY, beat estimates by $23.16M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.76, beat estimates by $0.21
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Total Revenue expected to be in the range of $596mn to $598mn; Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $83.0mn to $84.0mn; Non-GAAP net income per common share is expected to be in the range of $1.48 to $1.50. FY24 Outlook: Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.55bn to $2.56bn; Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be in the range of $408.0mn to $412.0mn; Non-GAAP net income per common share is expected to be in the range of $6.86 to $6.94.
  • Comment: HubSpot has surpassed expectations in its recent financial results, underscoring the resilience and ingenuity embedded in its business model. Striving to position itself as the foremost AI-powered customer platform for expanding businesses, the company introduced over 800 product enhancements in 2023. Notably, a new seats-based pricing model was implemented as part of a strategic shift, anticipating sustained growth throughout 2024. This shift aims to simplify the purchasing process for HubSpot while aligning with the value it provides. In the wake of influential players like Microsoft and Alphabet, a growing number of companies are embracing AI, creating a favorable environment for HubSpot to capitalize on this trend and propel its growth. Additionally, the anticipated interest rate cuts in 2024 are likely to stimulate increased spending on AI by companies, further contributing to HubSpot’s positive outlook. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $600 to $740. Positive Outlook.

HubSpot Inc (HUBS)

  • 23财年第四季营收：5.8191 亿美元，同比增长 23.9%，超预期 2316 万美元
  • 23财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.76美元，超预期 0.21 美元
  • 2024 财年指引第一季：总收入预计在 5.96 亿美元至 5.98 亿美元之间；非 GAAP 营业收入预计在 8300 万美元至 8400 万美元之间；非 GAAP 每股普通股净利润预计在 1.48 美元至 1.50 美元之间。 2024 财年指引：总收入预计在 25.5 亿美元至 25.6 亿美元之间；非公认会计准则营业收入预计在 4.08 亿美元至 4.12 亿美元之间；非 GAAP 每股普通股净利润预计在 6.86 美元至 6.94 美元之间。
  • 短评：HubSpot 在最近的财务业绩中超出了预期，凸显了其商业模式中根深蒂固的韧性和创新精神。旨在成为成长型企业首选的人工智能客户平台，该公司在 2023 年推出了超过 800 项产品增强功能。值得注意的是，作为战略转变的一部分，实施了新的基于席位的定价模型，预计 2024 年将实现持续增长。这种转变旨在简化 HubSpot 的购买流程，同时与其提供的价值保持一致。继微软和谷歌等知名公司之后，越来越多的公司正在拥抱人工智能，为 HubSpot 抓住这一趋势并推动其发展创造了有利环境。此外，预计 2024 年的降息可能会刺激企业增加对人工智能的支出，进一步推动 HubSpot 的积极前景。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：600美至740美元。积极前景。

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