KGI Research Singapore

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Technical Analysis – 14 March 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX US)

  • Shares closed at a seven-month high above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 42.4, Target 46.2, Stop 40.5

Teck Resources Ltd (TECK US)

  • Shares closed at a ten-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 50dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 44.2, Target 48.0, Stop 42.3

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DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
  • Long – Entry 33.88, Target 35.54, Stop 33.05

United Overseas Bank Ltd (UOB SP)

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  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD just turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 28.46, Target 29.68, Stop 27.85

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CMOC Group Ltd (3993 HK)

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  • Shares closed a high since September 2021, above the 5wEMA with rising volume.
  • MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  • Long – Entry 5.54, Target 6.00, Stop 5.31
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Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a one-month high above the 50dEMA with an increase in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 50dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  • Long – Entry 25.8, Target 28.4, Stop 24.5

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Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $8.64B, +11.9% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.55, miss estimates by $0.10
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect net sales outlook to range between $31bn to $32bn and diluted EPS outlook to range from $6.70 to $7.30.
  • Comment: Dollar Tree missed market expectations for holiday-quarter sales and profit, prompting plans to close 970 Family Dollar stores amid struggles in the competitive retail landscape. The company plans to close 600 Family Dollar stores in 1H24 and 370 more over a period of a few years, it also plans to close 30 more Dollar Tree outlets when their lease terms expire. Its CEO cited challenges in getting merchandise into stores quickly enough. The company incurred significant charges for portfolio optimization and asset impairments, resulting in a net loss of US$1.71bn for the quarter. Dollar Tree expects 2024 sales and profit below expectations, with sales projected between US$31bn and US$32bn and annual profit expected between US$6.70 and US$7.30 per share, both below Wall Street estimates. Dollar Tree is facing strong competition from Temu, Walmart and Target to attract customers looking to buy low-cost goods, it will need to continue to keep its prices low and stock up on more attractive merchandise in stores to attract customers. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

美元树(DLTR)

  • 23财年第四季营收：86.4亿美元，同比增幅11.9%，逊预期1,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.55美元，逊预期0.10美元
  • 24财年指引：预计净销售额前景在310亿美元至320亿美元之间，稀释后每股收益前景在6.7美元至7.3美元之间。
  • 短评：美元树假日季的销售和利润不及市场预期，促使该公司计划关闭970家家庭美元(Family Dollar)门店。该公司计划在2024年上半年关闭600家家庭美元(Family Dollar)门店，并在未来几年内再关闭370家。该公司还计划在租赁期满后再关闭30家Dollar Tree门店。该公司首席执行官提到了将商品快速进入商店的挑战。该公司在投资组合优化和资产减值方面产生了大量费用，导致本季度净亏损17.1亿美元。Dollar Tree预计2024年的销售额和利润低于预期，预计销售额在310亿美元至320亿美元之间，年利润预计在每股6.70美元至7.30美元之间，均低于华尔街的预期。Dollar Tree面临着来自Temu、沃尔玛(Walmart)和塔吉特(Target)的激烈竞争，为了吸引希望购买低成本商品的顾客，它需要继续保持低价，并在商店里囤积更有吸引力的商品，以吸引顾客。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：115美至140美元。中性前景。

UiPath Inc (PATH)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $405.25M, +31.4% YoY, beat estimates by $21.56M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.22, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to range from $330mn to $335mn, ARR between $1.508bn to $1.513bn, and non-GAAP operating income of approximately $55mn. FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to range from $1.555bn to $1.560bn, ARR to range between $1.725bn to $1.730bn, and non-GAAP operating income of about $295m.
  • Comment: UiPath Inc reported a strong close to the fiscal year, surpassing guidance for both top and bottom-line metrics. It achieved record quarterly revenue and net new ARR, signalling momentum and confidence in its strategic initiatives. Notably, it delivered its first quarter of GAAP profitability as a public company. Its CEO emphasized the strategic importance of AI-driven automation, highlighting the company’s role in delivering value across various organizations. The company showcased examples of successful partnerships and customer deployments, demonstrating the impact of its business automation platform. Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects continued growth and profitability, with plans to expand its partner ecosystem and invest in innovation and go-to-market resources. Guidance for FY25 reflects UiPath’s confidence in its ability to capture opportunities in the market. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $23 to $29. Positive Outlook.

UiPath(PATH)

  • 24财年第四季营收：4.0525亿美元，同比增幅31.4%，超预期2,1560万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.22美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 25财年第一季指引：预计营收在3.3亿美元至3.35亿美元之间，年化经常性收入在15.08亿美元至15.13亿美元之间，Non-GAAP营业利润约为5,500万美元。25财年指引：预计营收在15.55亿美元至15.6亿美元之间，年化经常性收入在17.25亿美元至17.3亿美元之间，Non-GAAP营业利润约为2.95亿美元。
  • 短评：UiPath公司公布了本财年的强劲表现，超过了收入和利润指标的预期。该公司实现了创纪录的季度营收和新增ARR净额，显示出其战略举措的势头和信心。值得注意的是，作为一家上市公司，该公司第一季度实现了GAAP盈利。其首席执行官强调了人工智能驱动的自动化的战略重要性，强调了公司在各个组织中提供价值的作用。该公司展示了成功的合作伙伴关系和客户部署的例子，展示了其业务自动化平台的影响。展望2025年，该公司预计将继续实现增长和盈利，并计划扩大其合作伙伴生态系统，投资于创新和市场资源。25财年的指引反映了UiPath对其抓住市场机遇的能力的信心。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：23美至29美元。积极前景。

Lennar Corp (LEN)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $7.3B, +12.5% YoY, miss estimates by $110M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.57, beat estimates by $0.37
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect home deliveries to be between 19,000 and 19,500 above analysts’ estimates of 18,889 and 20,900 to 21,300 new orders, in-line with estimates.
  • Stock repurchase: Repurchased 3.4mn shares for $506mn and increased stock repurchase program up to an additional $5.0bn.
  • Dividend: Increased annual dividend from $1.50 per share to $2.00 per share.
  • Comment: Lennar Corp reported strong first-quarter profits, beating Wall Street estimates, driven by sustained demand for new home construction amid historically low existing home supply. The company delivered 16,798 homes a significant 23% YoY increase in homes compared to the previous year, with home sales gross margins up 21.8% YoY. To address tight housing supply and high prices, Lennar reduced average base home prices from US$448,000 in the previous year to US$413,000 in the quarter. Despite missing revenue estimates, the company’s earnings per share exceeded expectations. Lennar expects strong second-quarter home deliveries which are in line with analysts’ expectations. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $155 to $175. Neutral Outlook.

莱纳建筑(LEN)

  • 24财年第一季营收：73.0亿美元，同比增幅12.5%，逊预期1.1亿美元
  • 24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：2.57美元，超预期0.37美元
  • 24财年第二季指引：房屋交付量将在19,000至19,500之间，高于分析师预估的18,889，新订单为20,900至21,300，与预估一致。
  • 股票回购：以5.06亿美元回购340万股股票，并将股票回购计划额外增加50亿美元。
  • 股息：将年度股息从每股1.50美元增加到每股2.00美元。
  • 短评：莱纳公布了强劲的第一季度利润，超过了华尔街的预期，这是由于在现有房屋供应处于历史低位的情况下，对新屋建设的持续需求所推动的。该公司交付了16,798套房屋，较上年同期大幅增长23%，房屋销售毛利率同比增长21.8%。为了解决住房供应紧张和房价高企的问题，莱纳将平均基本房价从去年的44.8万美元下调至本季度的41.3万美元。尽管收入低于预期，但该公司的每股收益超出了预期。莱纳预计第二季度房屋交付量将强劲，符合分析师的预期。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：155美至175美元。中性前景。

SentinelOne Inc (S)

  • 4Q24 Revenue: $174.2M, +38.2% YoY, beat estimates by $4.83M
  • 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.02, beat estimates by $0.02
  • 1Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $181mn vs consensus of $180.87M. FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $812mn and $818mn vs consensus of $818.09mn.
  • Comment: SentinelOne reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The company recorded an adjusted loss of 2 cents per share compared to a 13-cent loss a year earlier, with revenue reaching US$174.2mn, up 38.2% YoY. While annualized recurring revenue from subscription-based services increased 39% to US$724.4mn, guidance for the current quarter and full-year fiscal revenue fell slightly below estimates. Despite this, the company expressed confidence in its growth prospects, expecting positive free cash flow and operating income by the fiscal fourth quarter, driven by continued aggressive spending in cybersecurity solutions by enterprises. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $22 to $28. Neutral Outlook.

SentinelOne (S)

  • 24财年第四季营收：1.742亿美元，同比增幅38.2%，超预期483万美元
  • 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.02美元，超预期0.02美元
  • 25财年第一季指引：预计收入为1.81亿美元，而市场预期为1.8087亿美元。25财年指引：预计收入在8.12亿美元至8.18亿美元之间，而市场预期为8.1809亿美元。
  • 短评：SentinelOne公布的第四季度收益和收入超出了华尔街的预期。该公司调整后每股亏损2美分，而去年同期亏损13美分，收入达到1.742亿美元，同比增长38.2%。虽然订阅服务的年化经常性收入增长了39%，达到7.244亿美元，但本季度和全年财政收入的指引略低于预期。尽管如此，该公司对其增长前景充满信心，预计在企业在网络安全解决方案上持续积极支出的推动下，第四财季的自由现金流和营业收入将为正。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：22美至28美元。中性前景。

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