KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 13 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 26.0, Target 30.0, Stop 24.0

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 15.6, Target 18.0, Stop 14.4

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Starhub Ltd. (STH SP)

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  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA, 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 1.14, Target 1.22, Stop 1.10

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd. (YZJSGD SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 1.64, Target 1.74, Stop 1.59

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Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA. The 20dEMA is about to meet the 50dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 22.4, Target 24.0, Stop 21.6

Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a three-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume. The 20dEMA is about to meet the 50dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.68, Target 7.24, Stop 6.40

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Pepsi Co. (PEP)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $27.85B, -0.52% YoY, miss estimates by $520.19M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.78, beat estimates by $0.06
  • FY24 Guidance: The Company guides on a non-GAAP basis as we cannot predict certain elements that are included in reported GAAP results, including the impact of foreign exchange translation and commodity mark-to-market net impacts. For 2024, the Company now expects: • At least 4% increase in organic revenue vs. estimated growth of 4.64% Y/Y; • At least 8% increase in core constant currency EPS; In addition, the Company expects: • A core annual effective tax rate of 20%; and • Total cash returns to shareholders of approximately $8.2bn, comprised of dividends of $7.2bn and share repurchases of $1.0bn. In addition, the Company expects an approximate 1-percentage-point foreign exchange translation headwind to impact reported net revenue and core EPS growth based on current market consensus rates. This assumption and the guidance above imply 2024 core EPS of at least $8.15, a 7% increase compared to 2023 core EPS of $7.62 vs. $8.15 consensus.
  • FY23 Dividend: PepsiCo declares $5.42/share annual dividend, 7.1% increase from prior dividend of $5.06, effective with the dividend expected to be paid in June 2024.
  • Comment: The company posted a weaker revenue YoY despite raising prices, showcasing that consumers are becoming more hesitant after years of food price inflation. The company saw a decline in the volume of Pepsi’s beverages and snacks being purchased in 2023, with weaker sales in North America. The company’s revenue was also impacted by a recall of Quaker’s granola products over the quarter. However, consumer sentiments have rebounded to 79 in January, the highest since July 2021. The improving sentiments are likely to drive more sales for the company in the current quarter, as consumers also expect rate cuts to happen before the second half of 2024. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $160 to $180. Neutral Outlook.

百事公司(PEP)

  • 23财年第四季营收：278.5亿美元, 同比下降 0.52%，低于预期 5.2019 亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.78美元，超预期0.06美元
  • 2024 财年指引：公司以非 GAAP 为基础进行指引，因为我们无法预测报告的 GAAP 结果中包含的某些要素，包括外汇换算的影响和商品按市价计价的净影响。 对于 2024 年，公司目前预计： • 有机收入至少增长 4%，而预计同比增长 4.64%； • 核心固定汇率每股收益至少增长8%； 此外，公司预计： • 核心年度有效税率为20%； • 股东现金回报总额约为82 亿美元，其中包括72 亿美元股息和10 亿美元股票回购。 此外，根据当前市场共识率，公司预计大约 1 个百分点的外汇换算阻力将影响报告的净收入和核心每股收益增长。 这一假设和上述指导意味着 2024 年核心每股收益至少为 8.15 美元，比 2023 年核心每股收益 7.62 美元增长 7%，共识为 8.15 美元。
  • 2024财年股息：百事可乐宣布年度股息为每股5.42美元，较此前股息5.06美元增长7.1%，预计将于2024年6月支付。
  • 短评：公司涨价了，但收入同比下滑，显示消费者在多年食品价格上涨后变得更加犹豫。2023年百事可乐饮料和小吃购买量下降，北美销售疲软。本季度由于Quaker燕麦片产品召回事件，公司收入也受到影响。不过，消费者情绪在1月反弹至79，为2021年7月以来最高。消费者也预计利率将在2024年下半年之前下调，改善的情绪可能会在当前季度推动公司销售增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：160美至180美元。中性前景。

Arista Networks Inc. (ANET)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $1.54B, +20.3% YoY, in-line with estimates
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.08, beat estimates by $0.37
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Revenue between $1.52bn to $1.56bn; Non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 62%; Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 42%. FY24 Outlook: Management reiterated a target for 10% to 12% revenue growth.
  • Comment: The company reported results that met expectations. With the company generating close to half of its revenue from Microsoft and Meta, both of which recently predicted 2024 capital spending would be well above the 2023 level, driven by investment in AI data centers, this higher capital spending by its major customers is likely to drive more sales for the company. The company also remains cautiously optimistic about achieving its AI revenue goal of at least $750mn in AI networking in 2025 and kept its 2024 overall guide on a more conservative side. With more companies following suit and hopping onto the AI bandwagon, we expect to see more capital expenditure into AI, and Arista is bound to benefit from the increase in demand for AI. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $240 to $300. Positive Outlook.

Arista Networks (ANET)

  • 23财年第四季营收：15.4 亿美元，同比增长 20.3%，符合预期
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.08美元，超预期0.37美元
  • 2024 财年第一季指引：收入介于 15.2 亿至 15.6 亿美元之间; 非 GAAP 毛利率约为 62%;非 GAAP 营业利润率约为 42%. 2024 财年指引：管理层重申了 10% 至 12% 的收入增长目标
  • 短评：公司业绩符合预期。微软和 Meta 这两家巨头贡献了公司近一半的收入，而它们最近都预测 2024 年的资本支出将远超 2023 年水平，这主要是由于对 AI 数据中心的投资。因此，主要客户更高的资本支出可能会给公司带来更多销售。公司对 2025 年 AI 网络领域实现至少 7.5 亿美元的 AI 收入目标仍持谨慎乐观态度，并将其 2024 年整体指引保持在相对保守的水平。随着越来越多的公司加入 AI 浪潮，我们预计会有更多资金投入到 AI 领域，Arista 必然会受益于 AI 需求的增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间240美至300美元。积极前景。

Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $2.8B, +1.1% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $7.10, beat estimates by $2.78
  • Dividend: The company paid a one-time special cash dividend of $10 per share to its shareholders in Q4; the first time in the Company’s history.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Avis reported Q4 earnings surpassing estimates while revenue missed expectations. The company’s decline in Q4 EPS is largely attributed to the increased fleet cost as the number of vehicles increased by 5.2K in the quarter. Its Americas segment declined 2% in revenue to $2.17B while international revenue rose by 5% to $597M. Both segments experienced a decline in adjusted EBITDA. Vehicle depreciation and lease charges increased for both segments, impacting total company EBITDA, which was down 53% to $311M. However, the company maintained a strong liquidity position, with over $800M at the end of Q4 and additional fleet funding capacity of around $900M. In 2023, Avis Budget achieved record sales of $12.0B, with net income of $1.6B and adjusted EBITDA of $2.5B, the second-highest in its history. The company’s performance can be attributed to improved demand, strong pricing, and its cost-reduction efforts. The company’s performance reflects enhanced demand, robust pricing strategies, and effective cost-reduction initiatives. However, with the current economic outlook appearing challenging, the Q4 decline could persist into the first half of the year, potentially leading to increased costs and a subsequent negative impact on net income. Nevertheless, strategic financial management and the diversified portfolio of brands targeting distinct customer segments may partially mitigate these challenges.1Q24 recommended trading range: $164 to $170. Neutral Outlook.

Pepsi Co.(PEP)

  • 23财年第四季营收：28 亿美元，同比增长 1.1%，比分析师预期少 1000 万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：7.1美元，超预期2.78美元
  • 股息：公司在第四季度向股东派发了每股 10 美元的特别现金股息，这是公司历史上首次。
  • 2024 财年指引：没有提供指引。
  • 短评：艾维斯公布第四季度财报，盈利超出预期，但收入未达分析师预期。第四季度每股收益下降的主要原因是车队成本增加，季度内新增车辆 5.2 万辆。美洲分部收入下降 2% 至 21.7 亿美元，国际分部收入增长 5% 至 5.97 亿美元。两个分部的调整后 EBITDA 均有所下降。车辆折旧和租赁费用对两个分部均有所增加，导致公司总 EBITDA 下降 53% 至 3.11 亿美元。然而，公司保持了强劲的流动性，截至第四季度末拥有超过 8 亿美元的现金，以及约 9 亿美元的额外车队融资能力。2023 年，艾维斯预算实现了创纪录的 120 亿美元销售额，净利润 16 亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 为 25 亿美元，是其历史上第二高的水平。公司业绩可归因于需求改善、定价强劲以及成本削减努力。公司表现反映了增强的需求、稳健的定价策略和有效的成本削减举措。但是，由于当前经济前景似乎充满挑战，第四季度的下滑可能会持续到今年上半年，这可能导致成本增加并随后对净收入产生负面影响。尽管如此，战略性的财务管理和针对不同客户群体的多元化品牌组合可能会部分缓解这些挑战24财年第一季度建议交易区间：164美至170美元。中性前景。

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