KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 1 February 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Southern Company (SO US) A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence

  • Shares closed above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 69.0, Target 73.0, Stop 67.0

Xcel Energy, Inc. (XEL US)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 59.50, Target 63.50, Stop 57.50

Back To Top

UOL Group Ltd. (UOL SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated with medium confidence
  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.22, Target 6.62, Stop 6.02

Propex. (PROP SP)

A graph of stock market Description automatically generated
  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.93, Target 1.01, Stop 0.89

Back To Top

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd (293 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 7.9, Target 8.3, Stop 7.7

China Oilfield Services Ltd (2883 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA.
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 7.44, Target 7.86, Stop 7.23

Back To Top

Pfizer Inc (PFE)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $14.25B, -41.4% YoY, miss estimates by $150M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.10, beat estimates by $0.28
  • FY24 Guidance: Reaffirm revenues of $58.5B to $61.5B vs $60.49B consensus and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.05 to $2.25 vs $2.22 consensus. Expect to achieve FY24 operational revenue growth of 3% to 5% compared to 2023 revenues. Anticipates FY24 adjusted selling, information, and administrative (SI&A) expenses to be in the range of $13.8B to $14.8B and FY24 adjusted R&D expenses to be in the range of $11.0B to $12.0B. On track to deliver at least $4B in Annual Net Cost Savings by the end of 2024 from the previously announced Cost Realignment Program.
  • Comment: Pfizer delivered mixed results, with revenue missing analysts estimates. However, it delivered better than expected Q4 profit, aided by cost-cutting and lower than expected returns of the Covid treatment Paxlovid by the US government. The company reported a $3.5bn revenue reversal due to the return of around 6.5mn Paxlovid courses, less than expected. Pfizer’s overall revenue from its Covid products, Paxlovid and Comirnaty vaccine, amounted to $12.5bn in 2023, a decline of 78% from the peak in 2022 of $57bn. Through its $4bn cost-cutting programme and internal restructuring, the company is aiming to return to profitability. Furthermore, it is also anticipating growth in its cancer treatment sales with its recent acquisition of Seagen and the new RSV vaccine. Investors may not be returning to Pfizer till the company can demonstrate revenue growth from its non-Covid drug offerings. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $25 to $30. Neutral Outlook.

辉瑞(PFE)

  • 23财年第四季营收：142.5亿美元, 同比跌幅41.4%，逊预期1.5亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.1美元，超预期0.28美元
  • 24财年指引：重申收入为585亿美元至615亿美元，预期为604.9亿美元；调整后摊薄每股收益为2.05美元至2.25美元，预期为2.22美元。与2023年的收入相比，预计24财年的运营收入将增长3%至5%。预计24财年调整后的销售、信息和管理费用将在138亿至148亿美元之间，24财年调整后的研发费用将在110亿至120亿美元之间。根据之前宣布的成本调整计划，到2024年底，每年净成本节省至少40亿美元。
  • 短评：辉瑞公布的业绩喜忧参半，营收低于分析师预期。然而，得益于成本削减和美国政府治疗新冠的Paxlovid低于预期的回报，该公司第四季度的利润好于预期。由于大约650万Paxlovid药品的返还，该公司报告了35亿美元的收入逆转，低于预期。2023年，辉瑞从其新冠产品Paxlovid和Comirnaty疫苗中获得的总收入为125亿美元，比2022年570亿美元的峰值下降了78%。通过40亿美元的成本削减计划和内部重组，该公司的目标是恢复盈利。此外，由于最近收购了Seagen和新的RSV疫苗，该公司还预计其癌症治疗药物的销售将有所增长。投资者可能不会回到辉瑞，除非该公司能够证明其非新冠药物的收入增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：25美至30美元。中性前景。

General Motors Co (GM)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $42.98B, -0.3% YoY, beat estimates by $3.51B
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.24, beat estimates by $0.10
  • FY24 Guidance: Expect adjusted EPS in the range of $8.50-$9.50, vs $7.68 in 2023. Fewer shares due to buybacks adds $1.45 a share to the forecast. It forecast 2024 adjusted pre-tax profits of $12bn to $14bn, compared to $12.4bn reported for 2023. GM will hold capital spending roughly flat.
  • Comment: General Motors surpassed expectations and presented a positive outlook for FY24, aiming to reduce outstanding shares and return more capital to shareholders. Its CEO emphasized cash return strategies, including a $10bn share buyback and a 33% dividend increase. The company anticipates lowering shares to below 1bn and forecasts $8bn to $10bn in free cash flow in 2024. The company aims to balance traditional combustion engine sales with electric vehicles (EVs) and plans to launch plug-in hybrid vehicles in North America to cater to diverse consumer preferences. With General Motors anticipating a decline in vehicle prices, it plans to cut $400mn from marketing spend and $200mn from product development costs to hit forecasts this year. Additionally, spending at Cruise robo-taxi unit will be cut by $1bn and plans are underway to relaunch it after the previous halt in its operations. Despite challenges in China due to the backlog of inventory and loss anticipated in 1Q24 for China, the company is determined to make strategic decisions to protect profitability and achieve growth. General Motors also postponed its investor day to address changes within its organisation. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $35 to $40. Neutral Outlook.

通用汽车(GM)

  • 23财年第四季营收：429.8亿美元, 同比跌幅0.3%，超预期35.1亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.24美元，超预期0.1美元
  • 24财年指引：预计调整后每股收益在8.50美元至9.50美元之间，而2023年为7.68美元。由于股票回购导致的股票减少，每股收益预期增加1.45美元。该公司预测，2024年调整后的税前利润为120亿至140亿美元，而2023年的税前利润为124亿美元。通用汽车将保持资本支出基本持平。
  • 短评：通用汽车业绩超出预期，公布了24财年的积极前景，旨在减少流通股，并向股东返还更多资本。该公司首席执行官强调了现金回报策略，包括100亿美元的股票回购和33%的股息增长。该公司预计股数将降至10亿以下，并预计2024年自由现金流将达到80亿至100亿美元。该公司旨在平衡传统内燃机汽车与电动汽车的销售，并计划在北美推出插电式混合动力汽车，以满足不同消费者的偏好。由于通用汽车预计汽车价格将下跌，该公司计划削减4亿美元的营销支出和2亿美元的产品开发成本，以达到今年的预期。此外，Cruise自动驾驶出租车部门的支出将削减10亿美元，并计划在此前暂停运营后重新启动该部门。尽管由于库存积压和预计第一季度中国的亏损而在中国面临挑战，但公司决心做出战略决策，以保护盈利能力并实现增长。通用汽车推迟了投资者日，以应对公司内部的变化。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：35美至40美元。中性前景。

Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $62.02B, +17.7% YoY, beat estimates by $890M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.93, beat estimates by $0.16
  • 3Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue between $60bn and $61bn, or $60.50bn at the middle of the range, vs consensus of $60.93bn. Operating expenses of $15.8bn to $15.bn in the current quarter, up from $15.4bn in the previous one. Expect capital expenditures to increase materially on a sequential basis.
  • Comment: Microsoft surpassed market estimates for quarterly profit and revenue, driven by new artificial intelligence (AI) features attracting customers to its Azure cloud service. Revenue from the Productivity and Business Processes unit including Office productivity software rose 13% and the More Personal Computing segment (Windows, Surface, Bing and Xbox) rose 19%. The company reported an expected rise in costs associated with AI feature development, which may worry investors. Microsoft also forecasts increased operating expenses and a significant rise in capital expenditures. The integration of AI into core products, collaboration with OpenAI, and a focus on AI at scale have contributed to Microsoft’s growth, with 53,000 Azure AI customers, a third of which were new customers last year. During the quarter, there was an increase in the number of commitments to spend more than $1bn on Azure. The company’s overall revenue grew 18% and Azure sales experienced its best growth rate in four quarters at 30%. Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard, coupled with the introduction of custom cloud chips and the sale of the Copilot AI add-on to Microsoft 365 bundles at $30 monthly, is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth. Alongside these initiatives, ongoing cost-cutting measures in terms of manpower may impact margins positively, bolstering the company’s bottom line. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $400 to $440. Positive Outlook.

微软(MSFT)

  • 24财年第二季营收：620.2亿美元, 同比增幅17.7%，超预期8.9亿美元
  • 24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.93美元，超预期0.16美元
  • 24财年第三季指引：预计营收在600亿美元至610亿美元之间，中间区间为605亿美元，而市场预期为609.3亿美元。营业费用158亿美元至15亿美元。上一季度为154亿美元，而当前季度为60亿美元。预计资本支出将连续大幅增加。
  • 短评：由于新的人工智能功能吸引了客户使用其Azure云服务，微软的季度利润和收入超出了市场预期。生产力和业务流程部门（包括Office生产力软件）的收入增长了13%，更个人计算部门（Windows、Surface、Bing和Xbox）的收入增长了19%。该公司报告称，与人工智能功能开发相关的成本预计会上升，这可能会让投资者感到担忧。微软还预计运营费用将增加，资本支出将大幅增加。将人工智能集成到核心产品中，与OpenAI合作，以及大规模关注人工智能，这些都为微软的增长做出了贡献，微软拥有5.3万Azure人工智能客户，其中三分之一是去年的新客户。在本季度，承诺在Azure上花费超过10亿美元的公司数量有所增加。该公司的整体收入增长了18%，Azure的销售额增长了30%，创下了四个季度以来的最高增长率。微软收购动视暴雪，推出定制云芯片，并在微软365捆绑包中以每月30美元的价格出售Copilot人工智能插件，预计将为营收增长做出贡献。除了这些举措外，正在进行的人力成本削减措施可能会对利润率产生积极影响，从而支撑公司的利润。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：400美至440美元。积极前景。

Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $6.2B, +10.7% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.77, in line with estimates
  • 1Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be approximately $5.4bn vs $5.57B consensus, plus or minus $300mn. Expects Data Center segment revenue to be flat, with a seasonal decline in server sales offset by a strong Data Center GPU ramp. Client, Embedded, and Gaming segment sales are expected to decline sequentially, with semi-custom revenue expected to decline by a significant double-digit percentage. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 52%.
  • Comment: AMD reported Q4 earnings in line with analyst expectations and revenue exceeding estimates. The client segment (PC and laptop chips) rose 62%, while gaming segment sales fell 17%, and embedded segment sales dropped 24%. AMD’s data centre business, encompassing server CPUs and AI chips, rose 38% to $2.28bn, fuelled by strong growth in Instinct graphics processors. The company anticipates about $5.4bn in sales for Q1, below analysts’ estimates, with some major businesses, including PC chips, expected to decline sequentially whereas its AI segment is expected to accelerate. The company provided a bullish update on AI chip sales, projecting $3.5bn in data centre GPU sales for 2024. AMD expects the demand environment to remain mixed in 2024. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $150 to $185. Neutral Outlook.

超微半导体(AMD)

  • 23财年第四季营收：62.0亿美元, 同比增幅10.7%，超预期6,000万美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.77美元，符合预期
  • 24财年第一季指引：预计收入约为54亿美元，而市场预期为55.7亿美元，上下浮动3亿美元。预计数据中心部门收入将持平，服务器销售的季节性下降将被数据中心GPU的强劲增长所抵消。客户端、嵌入式和游戏部门的销售额预计将依次下降，半定制收入预计将下降两位数。Non-GAAP毛利率预计约为52%。
  • 短评：超微半导体公布的第四季度收益符合分析师预期，收入超出预期。客户端市场（个人电脑和笔记本电脑芯片）增长了62%，而游戏市场的销售额下降了17%，嵌入式市场的销售额下降了24%。受Instinct图形处理器强劲增长的推动，AMD的数据中心业务（包括服务器CPU和人工智能芯片）增长38%，至22.8亿美元。该公司预计第一季度销售额约为54亿美元，低于分析师的预期，包括个人电脑芯片在内的一些主要业务预计将环比下滑，而其人工智能业务预计将加速增长。该公司对人工智能芯片的销售进行了乐观的更新，预计2024年数据中心GPU的销售额将达到35亿美元。AMD预计，到2024年，需求环境将保持喜忧参半。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：150美至185美元。中性前景。

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $86.31B, +13.5% YoY, beat estimates by $1.04B
  • 4Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.64, beat estimates by $0.04
  • FY24 Guidance: No revenue guidance provided. Expect the 2024 full-year capex to be notably larger than 2023.
  • Comment: Alphabet fell short of Wall Street’s advertising sales expectations, causing a decline in shares despite robust growth in other segments of the search giant’s operations. The company’s advertising and cloud-computing divisions have faced increased scrutiny in the wake of recent earnings reports, as Alphabet endeavors to dispel the perception of lagging behind competitors in artificial intelligence while sustaining overall business expansion. Intense competition for advertising budgets from platforms like Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Amazon.com has posed challenges, compounded by mixed economic signals in the US. Anticipation of an improvement in Alphabet’s advertising business is tied to the commencement of rate cuts, with businesses expected to boost their advertising expenditures. The company disclosed plans to escalate spending on data centers to support its artificial intelligence initiatives this year. Additionally, Alphabet signaled a continuation of its cost-cutting initiative, which has been ongoing for over a year, involving recent layoffs, including those in its digital assistant and hardware divisions. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $135 to $155. Neutral Outlook.

谷歌(GOOG)

  • 23财年第四季营收：863.1亿美元, 同比增幅13.5%，超预期10.4亿美元
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.64美元，超预期0.04美元
  • 24财年指引：没有提供收入指引。预计2024年全年资本支出将明显高于2023年。
  • 短评：公司未能达到华尔街的广告销售预期，导致股价下跌，尽管这家搜索巨头的其他业务增长强劲。在最近的财报发布后，公司的广告和云计算部门面临着越来越多的审查，公司正努力消除在人工智能领域落后于竞争对手的看法，同时保持整体业务扩张。Facebook、Instagram、TikTok和亚马逊等平台对广告预算的激烈竞争带来了挑战，再加上美国经济信号喜忧参半。公司广告业务改善的预期与开始下调费率有关，预计企业将增加广告支出。该公司披露了今年增加数据中心支出的计划，以支持其人工智能计划。此外，公司还表示将继续其削减成本的举措，该举措已经持续了一年多，包括最近的裁员，包括数字助理和硬件部门的裁员。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：135美至155美元。中性前景。

Starbucks Corp (SBUX)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $9.4B, +7.9% YoY, miss estimates by $230M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90, miss estimates by $0.04
  • FY24 Guidance: Anticipates revenue growth of 7% to 10%, down from its prior forecast of 10% to 12%; lowered its global same-store sales outlook to a range of 4% to 6%, from its previous range of 5% to 7%; reiterated its full-year forecast of earnings per share growth of 15% to 20%.
  • Comment: Starbucks posted results below expectations, facing a slowdown in sales due to heightened competition and increased promotions from rivals, leading to a decline in customer visits. In North America, same-store sales experienced a 5% increase, primarily attributed to customers spending more on beverages and food. In China, the company’s second-largest market, same-store sales saw a notable growth of 10%. Nevertheless, the company faces intensified competition from more affordable competitors like Luckin Coffee, gaining traction amid China’s slower economic recovery. To counter this, Starbucks has implemented numerous promotional strategies in recent months to re-engage customers. The company aims to enhance its business by introducing market-specific beverages and expanding into smaller cities in China. On the other hand, with US consumer confidence rebounding to its highest level since July 2021, Starbucks anticipates a rise in sales in the near term. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $105. Neutral Outlook.

星巴克(SBUX)

  • 24财年第一季营收：94.0亿美元, 同比增幅7.9%，逊预期2.3亿美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.9美元，超预期0.04美元
  • 24财年指引：预计营收增长7%至10%，低于此前10%至12%的预期；将全球同店销售额预期从之前的5%至7%下调至4%至6%；重申了全年每股收益增长15%至20%的预期。
  • 短评：星巴克公布的业绩低于预期，由于竞争加剧和竞争对手加大促销力度，销售放缓，导致顾客访问量下降。在北美，同店销售额增长了5%，主要原因是消费者在饮料和食品上的支出增加。在该公司的第二大市场中国，同店销售额显著增长了10%。然而，该公司面临着来自瑞幸咖啡等价格更实惠的竞争对手的激烈竞争，这些竞争对手在中国经济复苏放缓的背景下获得了吸引力。为了解决这个问题，星巴克在最近几个月实施了许多促销策略来重新吸引顾客。该公司的目标是通过推出针对特定市场的饮料和向中国较小城市扩张来增强业务。另一方面，随着美国消费者信心反弹至2021年7月以来的最高水平，星巴克预计近期销售额将有所增长。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：95美至105美元。中性前景。

Back To Top