Technical Analysis – 08 January 2024

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is turning positive, RSI is turning constructive.
Long – Entry 135, Target 145, Stop 130

Wynn Resorts, Ltd. (WYNN US)

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 95, Target 101, Stop 92

COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) Co. Ltd. (COSCO SP)

Shares closed at a high since June 2023 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 0.162, Target 0.172, Stop 0.157

Samudera Shipping Line Pte. Ltd. (SAMU SP)

Shares closed at a high since Oct 2023 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
Long – Entry 0.72, Target 0.82, Stop 0.67

Kerry Logistics Network Ltd (636 HK)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)

Carnival Corp. (CCL)

4Q23 Revenue: $5.4B, +40.6% YoY, beat estimates by $120M
4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.07, beat estimates by $0.05
1Q24 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $0.8bn, more than double the first quarter of 2023; Net yields (in constant currency) up approximately 16.5% compared to the first quarter of 2023 with occupancy returning to historical levels. FY2024 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5.6bn, over 30% growth compared to 2023; Net yields (in constant currency) up approximately 8.5% compared to 2023, with full year occupancy returning to historical levels; Adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD (in constant currency) up approximately 4.5% compared to 2023.
Comment: Carnival Corp. beat revenue estimates despite a small loss, thanks to strong and steady demand for cruises, especially among younger travelers. This is due to the affordability of cruises compared to overseas vacations. Booking volumes reached record highs around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, indicating a promising recovery and growth for 2024. All major Carnival products have better bookings and higher prices for the peak summer season, suggesting a positive outlook for the company. Anticipated interest rate cuts, coupled with increased consumer spending, are predicted to further bolster Carnival’s sales in the coming year. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $17 to $24. Positive Outlook.

嘉年华邮轮(CCL)

23财年第四季营收：54.0亿美元, 同比增幅40.6%，超预期1.2亿美元
23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.07美元，超预期0.05美元
24财年第一季指引：调整后EBITDA约为8亿美元，是2023年第一季度的两倍多；与2023年第一季度相比，净收益率(按固定汇率计算)增长了约16.5%，入住率恢复到历史水平。24财年指引：调整后EBITDA约为56亿美元，与2023年相比增长超过30%；与2023年相比，净收益率(按固定汇率计算)增长约8.5%，全年入住率恢复到历史水平；与2023年相比，调整后的巡航成本（不包括每个可用下泊位日燃油) 增长了约4.5%。
短评：嘉年华公司尽管出现了小幅亏损，但营收还是超过了预期，这要归功于对邮轮的强劲而稳定的需求，尤其是年轻游客的需求。这是因为与海外度假相比，邮轮的价格更便宜。“黑色星期五”和“网络星期一”前后的预订量创下历史新高，表明2024年的复苏和增长前景光明。所有主要的嘉年华产品在夏季旺季都有更好的预订量和更高的价格，这表明该公司的前景乐观。预期中的降息，加上消费支出的增加，预计将进一步提振嘉年华来年的销售。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：17美至24美元。积极前景。

Nike Inc. (NKE)

2Q24 Revenue: $13.39B, +0.5% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
2Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.03, beat estimates by $0.18
3Q24 Guidance: Expect reported revenue to be slightly negative as it laps tough prior year comparisons, and sales to be up low single digits in the fourth quarter. FY24 Guidance: expects full-year reported revenue to grow approximately 1%, compared to a prior outlook of up mid-single digits; expects gross margins to expand between 1.4 and 1.6 percentage points.
Comment: Nike’s wholesale business has been under persistent pressure as retailers place fewer orders amid a weaker demand. Online sales also remain weak, forcing the company to boost promotions and sales in an attempt to attract shoppers. Sales in China have also slowed as the economy has stumbled. The company announced its plans to cut costs by about $2 billion over the next three years as it lowered its sales outlook to reflect increased macro headwinds, particularly in Greater China and EMEA. As part of its plan to cut costs, Nike said it’s looking to simplify its product SKUs, increase the use of technology and automation, streamline the overall organization by reducing management layers and leverage its scale “to drive greater efficiency.” 3Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $115. Negative Outlook.

耐克(NKE)

24财年第二季营收：133.9亿美元, 同比增幅0.5%，逊预期4,000万美元
24财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：1.03美元，超预期0.18美元
24财年第三季指引：预计该公司公布的营收将略逊于上年同期，销售额将在第四季度实现较低的个位数增长。24财年指引：预计全年报告收入将增长约1%，而此前的预测为中位数增长；预计毛利率将增长1.4至1.6个百分点。
短评：由于需求疲软，零售商的订单减少，耐克的批发业务一直面临压力。在线销售也依然疲软，迫使该公司加大促销和销售力度，以吸引购物者。在中国的销量也随着经济放缓了。该公司宣布，计划在未来三年内削减约20亿美元的成本，同时下调销售预期，以反映宏观经济逆风加剧，特别是在大中华区和欧洲、中东和非洲地区。作为其削减成本计划的一部分，耐克表示，它正在寻求简化其产品库存量单位，增加技术和自动化的使用，通过减少管理层来简化整体组织，并利用其规模“提高效率”。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美至115美元。负面前景。