11 March 2025: Futures Product Ideas
KGI Weekly Futures Update
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participant switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$118/mt | Above US$118/mt | Below US$100/mt | NA |
Net Short | Above US$118/mt | Below US$115/mt | Above US$100/mt | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +13.0 | Increase for a week after 6 consecutive weeks of decline |
MM | -13.2 | Decline for a week after 6 consecutive weeks of increase |
Physicals | +10.5 | Increase for a week after 6 consecutive weeks of decline |
Others | -10.3 | Decrease for the last 4 consecutive weeks |
Figure 1: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions retreated to 431 after 7 consecutive weeks of increase to 459, a high in over 2 years. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions rose for 2 consecutive weeks to 169. Seasonally, More MMs are prone to long in 1HQ4 and 2HQ2, and there are more MMs with short positions in 1HQ2 and 1HQ3.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
Low | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
Figure 2: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions remained stable for a week at 114 after rising for 2 consecutive weeks. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions continued on a general increasing trend to 154, reaching a high in over 2 years. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to being long in 1Q, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
Low | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
Figure 3: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions retreated marginally to 98 after the previous week’s increase, while the number of others with short positions retreated marginally to 86, after a sharp pullback a week ago.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
Low | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
Figure 4: Number of position holders iron ore futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX Baltic Panamax Time Charter Average Futures
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | NA | Above US$9,000/t | Below US$8,500/t | NA |
Net Short | NA | Below US$9,000/t | Above US$9,500/t | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | +0.07 | Increase slightly for a week after 3 consecutive weeks of decline |
MM | +1.30 | Increase for 4 consecutive weeks |
Physicals | -1.51 | Decline for 4 consecutive weeks |
Others | +0.14 | Increase for a week after 2 consecutive weeks of decline |
Figure 5: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions increased to 25 at the end of February. On the other hand, the number of MM with short positions declined for 5 consecutive weeks to its current level at 38. Seasonally, More MM are prone to long in 1H, and there are more MM with short positions in 2H.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Figure 6: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions increased slightly to 160 after remaining stable for 2 weeks at 158. Accordingly, the number of physical with short positions retreated marginally to 93, after reaching a high since August 2024 at 94 a week ago. The number of physicals has been on a general upward trend since 2Q, while physicals with short positions generally saw a downtrend since 2Q.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
Low | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
Figure 7: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of others with long positions retreated marginally to 20 at the end of February.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
Low | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
Figure 8: Number of position holders freight futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
SGX SICOM Rubber Futures – TSR20
Net Long/Short and Price Comparison
We highlight the key price levels that each participants switches their positions between net long and net short based on 2024 data.
2024 | Financial Institution (FI) | Manage Money (MM) | Physicals | Others |
Net Long | Below US$1.90/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net Short | Above US$1.60/kg | NA | NA | NA |
Net-position WoW Change | Remarks | |
FI | -0.59 | Decrease for 3 consecutive weeks |
MM | +1.27 | Increase for 2 consecutive weeks |
Physicals | +0.08 | Decrease for 3 consecutive weeks |
Others | +0.20 | Increase for 3 consecutive weeks |
Figure 9: Net-positions by participant segment and price comparison
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Long/Short Traders Snapshot
- Managed Money. The number of MM with long positions remained stable for a week at 106, with a general uptrend since the start of 2025. Accordingly, the number of MM with short positions continued on its decline for 2 consecutive weeks to 26, maintaining a general downtrend since the start of 2025.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
Low | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
Figure 10: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Physicals. The number of physicals with long positions remained stable for a week at 33, with little deviation since the end of January. Accordingly, the number of physicals with short positions retreated marginally to 40, with little deviations since the end of 2024. Seasonally, more physicals are prone to long in early Q3, and there are more physicals with short positions in Q4.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
Low | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
Figure 11: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
- Others. The number of long holders retreated slightly to 60 after 4 consecutive weeks of increase. On the other hand, the number of short holders increased marginally to 35 after a bigger pullback a week ago.
2024 | 2023 | |||
Long | Short | Long | Short | |
High | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
Low | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
Figure 12: Number of position holders rubber futures
Source: SGX, KGI Research
Participant Category | Description |
Financial Institutions | An entity, such as a broker trading desk, bank trading desk or swap dealer, that uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk. |
Managed Money | An entity that is engaged in organized futures trading on behalf of funds or other special investment purpose vehicles such as Pension Funds, Asset Managers, Hedge Funds, Proprietary Trading Groups, Family Offices, etc. |
Physicals | An entity that predominantly engages in the physical markets and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with the conduct of those activities. Such activities could include the production, processing, trading, packing or handling of a physical commodity, or the provision of transportation, warehousing or distribution services. |
Others | Every other trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories. E.g., Broker Agency, Bank Agency, Inter-Dealer Brokers, etc. |
凯基证券期货周报 – 3 月 11 日
SGX TSI 铁矿石 CFR 中国（62% 铁粉）指数期货
净多头/空头和价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交易(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 118 美元/吨 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 100 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 118 美元/吨以上 | 低于 115 美元/吨 | 100 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +13.0 | 连续六周下降 |
管理资金 | -13.2 | 连续六周上升 |
实物交易 | +10.5 | 连续六周下降 |
其他 | -10.3 | 连续三周下降 |
图 1：按参与者细分的净持仓和价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易简报
- 管理资金。持有多头仓位的管理资金数量在连续 七 周增加至 459（创下逾两年新高）后回落至 431。与此同时，持有空头仓位的市场交易者数量连续两周上升至 169。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在第四季上半旬和第二季下半旬持有多头，而在第二季上半旬和第三季上半旬持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 423 | 427 | 393 | 248 |
最低值 | 176 | 131 | 154 | 83 |
图 2：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交易。 持有多头仓位的实货交易在连续两周增长后保持维持在114。与此同时，持有空头仓位的实货交易延续整体增长趋势升至 154，创下逾两年新高。季节性来看，更多实物交易倾向于在第一季度持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交易较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 135 | 145 | 111 | 147 |
最低值 | 77 | 107 | 68 | 96 |
图 3：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头仓位的其他交易在前一周增长后小幅回落至 98，而持有空头仓位的其他交易者在前一周大幅回落后，本周进一步小幅下降至 86。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 131 | 131 | 134 | 152 |
最低值 | 68 | 83 | 103 | 101 |
图 4：铁矿石期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX 波罗的海巴拿马型船平均期租期货
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交易(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 无 | 9,000 美元/吨以上 | 低于 8,500 美元/吨 | 无 |
净空头 | 无 | 低于 9,000 美元/吨 | 9,500 美元/吨以上 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | +0.07 | 连续三周下降 |
管理资金 | +1.30 | 连续三周上升 |
实物交易 | -1.51 | 连续三周下降 |
其他 | +0.14 | 连续两周下降 |
图 5：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。 截至 2 月底，持有多头仓位的管理资金数量增加至 25。另一方面，持有空头仓位的市场交易者已连续 5 周下降，当前降至 38。季节性来看，更多管理资金倾向于在上半年持有多头，而在下半年持有空头的管理资金较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 47 | 51 | 29 | 33 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
图 6： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交易。 持有多头仓位的实货交易在连续两周维持在158后小幅增加至160。与此同时，持有空头仓位的实货交易者在上周达到自 2024 年 8 月以来的高点 94 后，本周小幅回落至 93。自第二季度以来，实物交易数量总体呈上升趋势，而持有空头头寸的实物交易数量自第二季度以来总体呈下降趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 171 | 114 | 120 | 123 |
最低值 | 98 | 78 | 78 | 62 |
图 7： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 截至 2 月底，持有多头仓位的其他交易者小幅回落至 20。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 43 | 39 | 53 | 45 |
最低值 | 20 | 20 | 31 | 25 |
图 8： 运费期货持仓者数量
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
SGX SICOM 橡胶期货 – TSR20
净多头/空头及价格比较
我们根据2024年数据，突出了每个参与者在净多头和净空头之间切换仓位的关键价格水平。
2024 | 金融机构 (FI) | 管理资金 (MM) | 实物交易(Physicals) | 其他 (Others) |
净多头 | 低于 1.90 美元/公斤 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净空头 | 1.60 美元/公斤以上 | 无 | 无 | 无 |
净仓位按周变化 | 备注 | |
金融机构 | -0.59 | 连续三周下降 |
管理资金 | +1.27 | 连续两周上升 |
实物交易 | +0.08 | 连续三周下降 |
其他 | +0.20 | 连续三周上升 |
图 9：按参与者类别划分的净仓位及价格比较
资料来源： 新交所、凯基研究
多头/空头交易者快照
- 管理资金。 持有多头仓位的管理资金在本周保持稳定于 106，自 2025 年初以来整体呈上升趋势。与此同时，持有空头仓位的市场交易者连续两周下降至 26，自 2025 年初以来整体呈下降趋势。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 114 | 56 | 89 | 80 |
最低值 | 63 | 21 | 25 | 27 |
图 10：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 实物交易者。 持有多头仓位的实货交易者本周保持稳定于 33，自 1 月底以来波动不大。与此同时，持有空头仓位的实货交易者小幅回落至 40，自 2024 年底以来变动不大。季节性来看，更多实物交易倾向于在第三季度初持有多头，而在第四季度持有空头的实物交易较多。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 39 | 48 | 43 | 39 |
最低值 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 24 |
图11：橡胶期货持仓者数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
- 其他。 持有多头仓位的交易者在连续四周增长后小幅回落至 60。另一方面，持有空头仓位的交易者在前一周大幅回落后，本周小幅增加至 35。
2024 | 2023 | |||
看多 | 看空 | 看多 | 看空 | |
最高值 | 77 | 48 | 82 | 51 |
最低值 | 48 | 26 | 51 | 28 |
图 12：持仓橡胶期货数量
资料来源：新交所、凯基研究
参与者类别 | 描述 |
金融机构 | 使用期货市场管理或对冲风险的实体，如经纪商交易台、银行交易台或互换交易商。 |
管理资金 | 代表基金或其他特殊投资目的工具（如养老基金、资产管理公司、对冲基金、自营交易集团、家族办公室等）从事有组织的期货交易的实体。 |
实物交易 | 主要从事实物市场并使用期货市场管理或对冲与这些活动相关风险的实体。这些活动可能包括生产、加工、贸易、包装或处理实物商品，或提供运输、仓储或分销服务。 |
其他 | 未归类到上述三类中的其他交易者，例如经纪代理、银行代理、交易商间经纪商等。 |
