Technical Analysis – 8 May 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Alcoa Corp. (AA US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 37.40, Target 40.40, Stop 35.90

Energy Fuels, Inc. (UUUU US)

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Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 5.80, Target 6.40, Stop 5.50

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Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (JM SP)

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Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 39.60, Target 41.60, Stop 38.60

Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA SP)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 6.65, Target 7.15, Stop 6.40

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Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (2600 HK)

Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 5.44, Target 6.00, Stop 5.16

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Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd (358 HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 16.22, Target 17.46, Stop 15.60

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Walt Disney Co (DIS)

2Q24 Revenue: $22.1B, +1.0%YoY, miss estimates by $50M
2Q24 EPS: $1.21, beat estimates by $0.10
FY24 Guidance: Adjusted EPS growth target to be 25%. Remain on track to generate approximately $14B of cash provided by operations and over $8B of free cash flow.
Share repurchase: Repurchased $1bn worth of shares in Q2, will continue to return capital to shareholders.
Comment: Walt Disney reported mixed results for the second quarter. It delivered a surprise profit in its streaming division, but this was overshadowed by declines in its traditional TV business and weaker box office performance. Despite efforts to adapt to the shift towards streaming entertainment, Disney’s traditional television revenue decreased due to lower ad revenue and a distribution deal with Charter Communications. The streaming division, including Disney+ and Hulu, reported operating income, but the combined streaming business with ESPN+ still incurred losses. Disney+ Core subscribers increased by more than 6 million in the second quarter, and Disney+ Core ARPU increased sequentially by 44 cents. Its sports operating income declined YoY, reflecting the impact of college football playoff games at ESPN, offset slightly by better results at Star India. Disney’s CEO emphasized the non-linear path to profitability for streaming services. Disney’s cost-cutting measures and investments in theme parks aim to drive future growth. Although Disney+ added more subscribers, streaming costs may lead to losses in the current quarter but are expected to swing back to profit next period. Despite challenges, Disney’s earnings per share for the quarter exceeded analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share expected to rise by 25% this fiscal year. While the entertainment direct-to-consumer business was profitable in Q2, Disney expects to see softer entertainment results in the current quarter. 3Q24 recommended trading range: $95 to $115. Negative Outlook.

迪士尼(DIS)

24财年第二季营收：221.0亿美元，同比增幅1.0%，逊预期5,000万美元
24财年第二季每股盈利：1.21美元，超预期0.1美元
24财年指引：调整后每股收益增长目标为25%。预计将产生约140亿美元的运营现金和超过80亿美元的自由现金流。
股票回购：第二季度回购了价值10亿美元的股票，并将继续向股东返还资本。
短评：迪士尼公布了第二季度喜忧参半的业绩。它的流媒体部门出人意料地实现了利润，但这被其传统电视业务的下滑和票房表现的疲软所掩盖。尽管迪士尼努力适应向流媒体娱乐的转变，但由于广告收入下降以及与Charter Communications的分销协议，迪士尼的传统电视收入有所下降。包括Disney+和Hulu在内的流媒体部门报告了营业收入，但与ESPN+合并的流媒体业务仍然出现亏损。Disney+ Core用户在第二季度增加了600多万，Disney+ 每核心用户平均收入环比增长了44美分。其体育运营收入同比下降，反映了ESPN大学橄榄球季后赛的影响，但被Star India的更好业绩略微抵消。迪士尼首席执行官强调了流媒体服务的非线性盈利之路。迪士尼削减成本的措施和对主题公园的投资旨在推动未来的增长。虽然Disney+增加了更多的用户，但流媒体成本可能会导致本季度亏损，但预计下一季度将恢复盈利。尽管面临诸多挑战，迪士尼本季度的每股收益仍超出了分析师的预期，本财年调整后的每股收益预计将增长25%。虽然娱乐直接面向消费者的业务在第二季度实现了盈利，但迪士尼预计本季度的娱乐业务将会走软。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：95美至115美元。负面前景。

Celsius Holdings Inc (CELH)

1Q24 Revenue: $355.7M, +36.9%YoY, miss estimates by $34.12M
1Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.27, beat estimates by $0.08
2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided. Expect ongoing inventory fluctuations may be expected in subsequent quarters because its largest distributor constituted 62% of its total North American sales during the first quarter of 2024.
Comment: Despite record sales, Celsius Holdings reported a 37% YoY increase in revenue to US$355.7mn missing analyst expectations in the first quarter. The company delivered EPS of US$0.27, exceeding the consensus estimate of US$0.19, driven by strong performance in North America and international sales growth. However, inventory movements within its largest distributor negatively impacted revenue by approximately US$20mn. Despite this, club channel sales increased by 36%, Amazon sales grew by 30%, and case volume in the food service channel surged by 186%. Gross profit margin improved to 51% compared to 44% last year. Celsius has warned of potential inventory fluctuations in the future due to its reliance on its largest distributor. Any changes or disruptions in the distributor’s operations could significantly impact Celsius’ inventory levels, creating uncertainty for investors and analysts regarding the company’s revenue and profitability. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $65 to $90. Neutral Outlook.

Celsius (CELH)

24财年第一季营收：3.557亿美元，同比增幅36.9%，逊预期3,412万美元
24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.27美元，超预期0.08美元
24财年第二季指引：不提供指导。由于其最大的经销商在2024年第一季度占其北美总销售额的62%，预计未来几个季度的库存可能会持续波动。
短评：尽管销售额创历史新高，但Celsius Holdings第一季度的收入同比增长37%，达到3.557亿美元，低于分析师的预期。受北美市场强劲表现和国际销售增长的推动，公司每股收益为0.27美元，超过了市场普遍预期的0.19美元。然而，其最大分销商的库存变动对收入产生了约2,000万美元的负面影响。尽管如此，俱乐部渠道的销售额增长了36%，亚马逊的销售额增长了30%，食品服务渠道的箱量激增了186%。毛利率从去年的44%提高到51%。公司警告说，由于依赖其最大的分销商，未来可能出现库存波动。经销商业务的任何变化或中断都可能严重影响摄氏的库存水平，给投资者和分析师带来有关公司收入和盈利能力的不确定性。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：65美至90美元。中性前景。

Datadog Inc (DDOG)

1Q24 Revenue: $611M, +26.8%YoY, beat estimates by $19.3M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.44, beat estimates by $0.10
2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $620M and $624M. Non-GAAP operating income between $134M and $138M. Non-GAAP net income per share between $0.34 and $0.36, assuming approximately 360M weighted average diluted shares outstanding. FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $2.59B and $2.61B. Non-GAAP operating income between $585M and $605M. Non-GAAP net income per share between $1.51 and $1.57, assuming approximately 361M weighted average diluted shares outstanding.
Comment: In the first quarter, Datadog delivered revenue of US$611mn, a 27% YoY increase and EPS of US$0.44 surpassed analysts’ estimates. The company added over 2,500 new customers, totalling approximately 28,000. The company experienced healthy usage growth from its existing customers, particularly among its larger clients. Its platform strategy continues to show effectiveness, with 82% of customers using 2 or more products. Additionally, the company saw robust growth in newer products, contributing to overall revenue growth. Datadog’s focus on AI integration, cloud service management, and observability space remains strong, with several product enhancements and releases. Sales and marketing efforts resulted in significant expansions with existing clients across various industries. Looking ahead, the company expects continued growth, with second quarter revenue projected between US$620mn to US$624mn and fiscal year 2024 revenue estimated at US$2.59bn to US$2.61bn, driven by increased demand for its cybersecurity solutions amidst rising cyber threats. Despite guidance exceeding expectations, the news of Datadog’s President Amit Agarwal stepping down at the end of the year to join its board of directors caused its share price to decline. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $105 to $135. Positive Outlook.

数据狗 (DDOG)

24财年第一季营收：6.11亿美元，同比增幅26.8%，超预期1,930万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.44美元，超预期0.10美元
24财年第二季指引：预计收入将在6.2亿美元至6.24亿美元之间。Non-GAAP营业收入在1.34亿美元至1.38亿美元之间。Non-GAAP每股净利润在0.34美元至0.36美元之间，假设约3.6亿股加权平均摊薄在外股票。24财年指引：预计收入在25.9亿美元至26.1亿美元之间。Non-GAAP营业收入在5.85亿美元至6.05亿美元之间。Non-GAAP每股净利润在1.51美元至1.57美元之间，假设约3.61亿股加权平均摊薄在外股票。
短评：今年第一季度，数据狗实现营收6.11亿美元，同比增长27%，每股收益0.44美元，超出分析师预期。该公司增加了2500多名新客户，总计约2.8万名。该公司的现有客户（尤其是大客户）的使用量出现了健康增长。它的平台战略继续显示出有效性，82%的客户使用两种或更多产品。此外，该公司的新产品增长强劲，为整体收入增长做出了贡献。公司对人工智能集成、云服务管理和可观察性领域的关注依然强劲，并发布了一些产品增强和发布。销售和市场营销的努力使现有客户在各个行业中得到了显著的扩展。展望未来，该公司预计将继续增长，第二季度收入预计在6.2亿美元至6.24亿美元之间，2024财年收入预计在25.9亿美元至26.1亿美元之间，这是由于网络威胁不断增加，对其网络安全解决方案的需求增加。尽管业绩指引超出预期，但公司总裁阿米特•阿加瓦尔(Amit Agarwal)在年底辞职加入董事会的消息导致该公司股价下跌。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：105美至135美元。积极前景。

Crocs Inc (CROX)

1Q24 Revenue: $938.63M, +6.2%YoY, beat estimates by $53.95M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.02, beat estimates by $0.77
2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be up 1% to 3% YoY, with Crocs Brand growing 7% to 9% YoY and HEYDUDE brand contracting 17% to 19% YoY; adjusted operating margin of approximately 26.5%; adjusted diluted EPS of $3.40 to $3.55. FY24 Guidance: Expects revenue growth of 3% to 5% YoY, with Crocs Brand growing approximately 7% to 9%, and HEYDUDE Brand contracting 8% to 10%; Adjusted operating margin of approximately 25%; adjusted diluted EPS of $12.25 to $12.73 vs $12.47 consensus.
Comment: Crocs reported strong financial performance and raised its profit forecast for FY24. The company experienced robust consumer demand for its Crocs brand in both North American and international markets. Although demand for the HEYDUDE brand weakened, it was outweighed by the strength of the Crocs brand. Consequently, the company revised its outlook for the HEYDUDE brand downwards but increased its FY-adjusted diluted EPS due to the resilience of the Crocs brand. Additionally, Crocs Inc. announced the appointment of Susan Healy as executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective June 3. The company emphasized its commitment to strategic investments supported by healthy gross margins to drive long-term growth and secure enduring market share expansion. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $150. Positive Outlook.

卡骆驰 (CROX)

24财年第一季营收：9.3863亿美元，同比增幅6.2%，超预期5,395万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.02美元，超预期0.77美元
24财年第二季指引：预计营收同比增长1%至3%，其中Crocs品牌同比增长7%至9%，HEYDUDE品牌同比收缩17%至19%；调整后营业利润率约26.5%；调整后的稀释每股收益为3.40美元至3.55美元。24财年指引：预计收入同比增长3%至5%，其中Crocs品牌增长约7%至9%，HEYDUDE品牌收缩8%至10%；调整后营业利润率约为25%；调整后的稀释每股收益为12.25美元至12.73美元，而市场预期为12.47美元。
短评：卡骆驰公布了强劲的财务业绩，并上调了24财年的利润预期。该公司的Crocs品牌在北美和国际市场都有强劲的消费者需求。尽管对HEYDUDE品牌的需求减弱了，但卡骆驰品牌的强劲势头还是盖过了它。因此，该公司下调了HEYDUDE品牌的预期，但由于Crocs品牌的弹性，其经财务调整后的稀释每股收益有所增加。此外，Crocs Inc.宣布任命Susan Healy为执行副总裁兼首席财务官，自6月3日起生效。该公司强调了其对战略投资的承诺，以健康的毛利率为支撑，推动长期增长并确保持久的市场份额扩张。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：130美至150美元。积极前景。

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.86B, +31.0%YoY, beat estimates by $60M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.59, beat estimates by $0.20
1Q24 Dividend: Wynn Resorts declares a $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 1.03%; Payable May 31; for shareholders of record May 20; ex-div May 17.
2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
Comment: Wynn Resorts delivered robust results, fueled by strong performance in gaming, luxury retail, and hotel bookings at its Macau properties. The company has been capitalizing on the resurgence of travel to key casino destinations like Las Vegas and Macau following the pandemic. Highlighting the sustained momentum from 2023 through the first quarter of 2024, Wynn Resorts achieved a new record in Adjusted Property EBITDAR. With more flights resuming in Macau and increased travel activity, the company is poised to benefit from heightened tourism, positively impacting revenue in the near future. Additionally, the recent surge in tourism during the May Day holidays in China further underscores this trend. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $95 to $115. Positive Outlook.

永利度假村 (WYNN)

24财年第一季营收：18.6亿美元，同比增幅31.0%，超预期6,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.59美元，超预期0.20美元
24财年第一季股息：永利度假村宣布每股0.25美元的季度股息，与之前一致；远期收益率1.03%；5月31日为付息日；5月20日为股东登记日；5月17日为除息日。
24财年第二季指引：不提供指引。
短评：永利度假村在博彩、奢侈品零售和澳门酒店预订量方面的强劲表现推动了其强劲的业绩。该公司一直在利用疫情后拉斯维加斯和澳门等主要赌场目的地旅游的复苏。从2023年到2024年第一季度，永利度假村实现了调整后房地产EBITDAR的新纪录，突显了持续增长的势头。随着澳门更多航班的恢复和旅游活动的增加，该公司有望从旅游业的增长中受益，并在不久的将来对收入产生积极影响。此外，最近中国五一假期期间旅游业的激增进一步强调了这一趋势。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：95美至115美元。积极前景。

Arista Networks Inc (ANET)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.57B, +16.3%YoY, beat estimates by $20M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.99, beat estimates by $0.25
2Q24 Guidance: Revenue between $1.62 billion to $1.65 billion, vs. $1.62B consensus; Non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 64%; Non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 44%.
Comment: Arista Networks reported a strong set of results and provided better-than-expected guidance. The strong results underscore strong spending on Arista’s products such as Ethernet switches and routers from clients, including Microsoft and Meta Platforms, as they grow their cloud and data center infrastructure to support AI needs. Looking ahead, the company anticipates higher demand for its cloud networking gear from a boom in artificial intelligence applications and chips. Meta and Microsoft also recently announced that they will be increasing their spending on AI going into 2024, and this is likely to positively affect Arista Network. The company also announced a US$1.2bn share repurchase program. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $270 to $330. Positive Outlook.

Arista网络 (ANET)

24财年第一季营收：15.7亿美元，同比增幅16.3%，超预期2,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.99美元，超预期0.25美元
24财年第二季指引：营收在16.2亿至16.5亿美元之间，预期为16.2亿美元；Non-GAAP毛利率约为64%；Non-GAAP营业利润率约为44%。
短评：Arista 网络公布了一系列强劲的业绩，并提供了好于预期的指导。这一强劲的业绩凸显了阿里斯塔在以太网交换机和路由器等产品上的强劲支出，这些产品来自微软和Meta平台等客户，这些客户正在发展自己的云和数据中心基础设施，以支持人工智能需求。展望未来，该公司预计，人工智能应用和芯片的繁荣将对其云网络设备产生更高的需求。Meta和微软最近也宣布，他们将在2024年之前增加在人工智能方面的支出，这可能会对Arista 网络产生积极影响。该公司还宣布了一项12亿美元的股票回购计划。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：270美至330美元。积极前景。

Lyft Inc (LYFT)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.3B, +30.0%YoY, beat estimates by $140M
1Q24 GAAP EPS: –$0.08, beat estimates by $0.08
2Q24 Guidance: Expect gross booking of approximately $4.0bn to $4.1bn; Adjusted EBITDA of $95mn to $100mn and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 2.4%.
Comment: Lyft unveiled results that exceeded expectations, driven by significant growth in both gross bookings and active rider counts, surpassing market projections. With gross bookings reaching $3.69 billion, marking a 21.0% year-over-year increase, the company outperformed analyst estimates of $3.59 billion. Additionally, Lyft reported an active rider base of 21.9 million, up by 2.35 million from the previous year, showcasing its ability to retain and expand its customer base, thereby enhancing its market position against competitors like Uber. Moreover, the company provided guidance that surpassed expectations, indicating robust demand for bookings as it enters the second quarter of 2024. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $15 to $22. Positive Outlook.

Lyft (LYFT)

24财年第一季营收：13.0亿美元，同比增幅30.0%，超预期1.4亿美元
24财年第一季GAAP每股亏损：0.08美元，超预期0.08美元
24财年第二季指引：预计总预订额约为40亿至41亿美元；调整后的EBITDA为9,500万至1亿美元，调整后的EBITDA利润率约为2.4%。
短评：由于总预订量和活跃乘客数量的显著增长，Lyft公布了超出预期的业绩，超出了市场预期。该公司的总预订量达到36.9亿美元，同比增长21.0%，超过了分析师预期的35.9亿美元。此外，Lyft报告称其活跃乘客基数为2190万，比去年增加了235万，显示出其留住和扩大客户群的能力，从而增强了其相对于优步等竞争对手的市场地位。此外，该公司提供的指导超出预期，表明进入2024年第二季度，预订需求强劲。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：15美至22美元。积极前景。

Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY)

1Q24 Revenue: $5.98B, -17.6%YoY, miss estimates by $800M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.63, beat estimates by $0.06
2Q24 Guidance: Expect 2Q24 output to rise to between 1,232-1,272 thousand barrels of oil and gas per day; Expect wider losses in its midstream business; 2Q24 output at the midpoint of its forecast would be 7% higher.
Comment: Occidental reported a mixed performance as decreased crude oil prices and production volumes impacted its results. However, the company anticipates a 7% increase in oil and gas production for 2Q24. Recent weeks have seen fluctuating oil prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertain demand signals from China, and rising U.S. stockpiles. Oil prices have declined since April to the current level of US$82 per barrel. OPEC+ is also expected to prolong production cuts in June, potentially tightening oil supply in the short term and offering potential upward momentum for oil prices. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $60 to $69. Neutral Outlook.

西方石油 (OXY)

24财年第一季营收：59.8亿美元，同比跌幅17.6%，逊预期8亿美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.63美元，超预期0.06美元
24财年第二季指引：预计24年第二季度的产量将增加到每天123.2至127.2万桶石油和天然气；预计中游业务亏损将扩大；按照其预测的中点计算，24年第二季度的产出将高出7%。
短评：由于原油价格下跌和产量下降影响了其业绩，西方石油公司的业绩好坏参半。然而，该公司预计24年第二季度油气产量将增长7%。最近几周，由于中东地缘政治紧张局势升级、中国需求信号不确定以及美国库存上升，油价出现波动。自今年4月以来，油价已跌至目前每桶82美元的水平。预计欧佩克+也将在6月份延长减产，短期内可能会收紧石油供应，并为油价提供潜在的上涨动力。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：60美至69美元。中性前景。

Twilio Inc (TWLO)

1Q24 Revenue: $1.08B, +5.0%YoY, beat estimates by $20M
1Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.80, beat estimates by $0.21
2Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $1.05bn to $1.06bn vs consensus of $1.08bn, representing a YoY revenue growth of 1% to 2%; YoY organic revenue growth expected between 4% to 5%; Non-GAAP diluted EPS between $0.64 to $0.68. FY24 Guidance: Expect organic revenue growth of 5% to 10%; Non-GAAP income from operations in the range of $585mn to $635mn.
Comment: Twilio delivered robust quarterly results, yet its forecast for 2Q24 fell short of expectations, signaling a tough financial road ahead. Highlighting its growth, the company boasts over 313,000 active customer accounts as of March 31, up from 300,000 a year earlier. However, it anticipates a slowdown in demand as consumers and businesses tighten spending amid economic uncertainty and prolonged high interest rates, prompting a shift towards more prudent expenditure practices. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $55 to $70. Neutral Outlook.

Twilio (TWLO)

24财年第一季营收：10.8亿美元，同比增幅5.0%，超预期2,000万美元
24财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.8美元，超预期0.21美元
24财年第二季指引：预计营收在10.5亿至10.6亿美元之间，而市场预期为10.8亿美元，同比营收增长1%至2%；预计有机收入同比增长4%至5%；Non-GAAP摊薄每股收益在0.64美元至0.68美元之间。24财年指引：预计有机收入增长5%至10%；Non-GAAP经营收入在5.85亿美元至6.35亿美元之间。
短评：Twilio发布了强劲的季度业绩，但其对24年第二季度的预测低于预期，预示着未来的财务道路将十分艰难。截至3月31日，该公司拥有超过31.3万个活跃客户账户，高于一年前的30万个，突显了其增长。然而，它预计需求将放缓，因为在经济不确定性和长期高利率的情况下，消费者和企业将收紧支出，从而促使人们转向更谨慎的支出做法。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：55美至70美元。中性前景。