Technical Analysis – 5 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR US)

• Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 210 Target 240, Stop 195
  

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 86 Target 96, Stop 81
  

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Hongkong Land. (HKL SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 4.70, Target 5.10, Stop 4.50
  

Frasers Property Ltd. (FPL SP)

• Shares closed at a high since January 2024 with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.94 Target 1.04, Stop 0.89
  

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COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd (1919 HK)

• Shares closed at a 3-week high above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
  
• Long – Entry 12.44, Target 13.36, Stop 11.98
  

Blue Moon Group Holdings Ltd (6993 HK)

• Shares closed at a three-week high above the 5dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 3.20, Target 3.50, Stop 3.05
  

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Marriott International Inc/MD (MAR)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.26B, +5.6% YoY, in-line with estimates
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.26, miss estimates by $0.05
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect worldwide RevPAR growth to be between 2% to 3%. Gross fee revenue of $1,290 to $1,310 and adjusted EPS of $2.31 to $2.39.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect worldwide RevPAR growth to be between 3% to 4% and net room growth of approximately 6.5%. Gross fee revenue of $5,126 to $5,146 and lowered its adjusted EPS to be between $9.19 to $9.27 vs consensus of $9.36, and previous estimates of $9.23 to $9.40. Full year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4.93B and $4.96B.
  
• Comment: Marriott International delivered third-quarter revenue in line with estimates but missed profit estimates, prompting it to lower its annual profit forecast. For the third quarter, the company had a 6% increase in net rooms and a 3% increase in global room revenue (RevPAR), with group RevPAR up 10%. The company also expanded its portfolio with the mid-scale “City Express by Marriott” and reached a record 219mn members in its Bonvoy loyalty program. Its gross fee revenues and adjusted EBITDA grew by 7% and 8% respectively, despite weaker performance in China, where RevPAR dropped 8%. The lowered annual forecast can be partially attributable to weak domestic travel in China, where demand and RevPAR growth have been declining, impacted by government economic measures, severe weather and increased international travel among wealthier Chinese travellers. Global group RevPAR is expected to rise by 8% in 2024, supported by strong group demand. Despite flat global leisure room demand and reduced spending in lower-end hotels, Marriott anticipated global RevPAR growth of 2% to 3% in Q4 and expects to grow its net rooms by 6.5% in FY24. Marriott is launching cost-saving initiatives and restructuring efforts for 2025, which could improve efficiency for franchisees and is considering asset sales in FY25. While luxury spending remains stable, challenges in the lower-end hotel segment may persist through the current quarter. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $240 to $270. Neutral Outlook.
  

万豪国际 (MAR)

• 24财年第三季营收：62.6亿美元，同比增幅5.6%，符合预期
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.18美元，逊预期0.29美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计全球每间客房收益增长将在2%至3%之间。总费用收入1,290美元至1,310美元，调整后每股收益2.31美元至2.39美元。
  
• 24财年指引：预计全球平均每间客房收益增长率将在3%至4%之间，客房净增长率约为6.5%。总费用收入为5,126美元至5,146美元，调整后每股收益下调至9.19美元至9.27美元，而市场预期为9.36美元，此前预计为9.23美元至9.40美元。全年调整后的EBITDA预计在49.3亿美元至49.6亿美元之间。
  
• 短评：万豪国际第三季度收入与预期相符，但利润低于预期，这促使该公司下调了年度利润预期。第三季度，该公司净客房数量增长了6%，全球客房收入增长了3%，其中集团每间客房收入增长了10%。该公司还扩大了其产品组合，推出了中型酒店“万豪城市快车”，其Bonvoy忠诚计划的会员数量达到创纪录的2.19亿人。其总费用收入和调整后的EBITDA分别增长了7%和8%，尽管在中国的表现较弱，每间可分配收益下降了8%。下调年度预测的部分原因是中国国内旅游疲软，受政府经济措施、恶劣天气和富裕中国游客国际旅游增加的影响，中国国内旅游需求和每间可分配客房收益增长一直在下降。在强劲的集团需求的支撑下，全球集团的每间可用房收益预计将在2024年增长8%。尽管全球休闲客房需求持平，低端酒店支出减少，但万豪预计第四季度全球每间客房收益将增长2%至3%，并预计其净客房数量将在24财年增长6.5%。万豪正在为2025年推出节约成本的举措和重组努力，这可能会提高加盟商的效率，并正在考虑在25财年出售资产。虽然奢侈品消费保持稳定，但低端酒店市场的挑战可能会持续到本季度。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：240至270美元。中性前景。
  

Yum China Holdings Inc (YUMC)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $3.07B, +5.5% YoY
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.77
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expectations remain unchanged with plans to open approximately 1,500 to 1,700 net new stores, make capital expenditures from approximately $700M to $850M and return $1.5B to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends and share repurchases.
  
• Comment: Yum China reported strong 3Q24 results, with total revenue rising 5.5% YoY to US$3.07bn and operating profit up 15% to US$371mn. Diluted EPS increased 33% to US$0.77. The company expanded its footprint to 15,861 locations, adding 438 new stores, with digital sales making up 90% of total sales. Despite these gains, same-store sales fell 3% YoY, with KFC and Pizza Hut seeing declines of 2% and 6%, respectively. Yum China raised its shareholder return target from US$3bn to US$4.5bn for 2024 to 2026. Delivery sales continued to grow at double digits, making up 40% of total sales, while membership for KFC and Pizza Hut surpassed 510mn. Its CEO emphasized the company’s “RGM 2.0” strategy, aimed at driving operational efficiency and menu innovation, which has contributed to seven consecutive quarters of same-store transaction growth and strengthened delivery performance. Yum China is also expanding its franchise footprint, particularly in underserved and remote markets, with a focus on strategic locations and lower-tier cities. The company plans to further increase franchise openings and maintain capital returns to shareholders. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $45 to $55. Positive Outlook.
  

百胜中国 (YUMC)

• 24财年第三季营收：30.7亿美元，同比增幅5.5%
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.77美元
  
• 24财年指引：预期保持不变，计划净开设约1,500至1,700家新店，资本支出约为7亿至8.5亿美元，并通过季度现金股息和股票回购向股东返还15亿美元。
  
• 短评：百胜中国公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，总收入同比增长5.5%，达到30.7亿美元，营业利润增长15%，达到3.71亿美元。稀释后每股收益增长33%，至0.77美元。该公司将其足迹扩大到15,861个地点，增加了438家新店，数字销售额占总销售额的90%。尽管有这些增长，但同店销售额同比下降了3%，其中肯德基和必胜客分别下降了2%和6%。百胜中国将其2024年至2026年的股东回报目标从30亿美元上调至45亿美元。外卖销售额继续以两位数的速度增长，占总销售额的40%，而肯德基和必胜客的会员数量超过5.1亿。其首席执行官强调了公司的“RGM 2.0”战略，旨在提高运营效率和菜单创新，这为连续七个季度的同店交易增长和加强配送业绩做出了贡献。百胜中国还在扩大其特许经营业务，特别是在服务欠缺和偏远的市场，重点是战略地点和二三线城市。该公司计划进一步增加特许经营，并保持对股东的资本回报。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：45至55美元。积极前景。
  

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $725.52M, +30.0% YoY, beat estimates by $21.83M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.10, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect FY24 revenue to be between $767mn to $771mn vs consensus of $774.05mn; Raised U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $687mn, representing a growth rate of at least 50%; raised adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.054bn to $1.058bn; raised adjusted FCF guidance to in excess of $1bn; Continues to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.
  
• Comment: Palantir delivered strong results and raised its 2024 revenue forecast, driven by increased adoption of its AI solutions and strong government spending. The company has capitalized on the surge in generative AI, as more businesses leverage its platform to test, debug code, and analyze AI-related scenarios. Palantir highlighted the effectiveness of its AI platform across sectors, noting that, for example, an insurance client was able to reduce underwriting times from two weeks to just three hours. While government contracts remain a significant revenue source, Palantir is seeing rising demand from commercial clients adopting its AI-driven services. The company continues to emphasize its accelerating growth and robust financial performance, driven by high demand from both U.S. government and private sector clients for advanced AI technologies. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $42 to $57. Positive Outlook.
  

Palantir (PLTR)

• 24财年第三季营收：7.2552亿美元，同比增幅30.0%，超预期2,183万美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.1美元，超预期0.01美元
  
• 24财年指引：预计24财年收入将在7.67亿美元至7.71亿美元之间，而市场预期为7.7405亿美元；将美国商业收入预期提高到6.87亿美元以上，增长率至少达到50%；将调整后的运营指引收益提高至10.54亿至10.58亿美元；将调整后的现金流动资金指引上调至10亿美元以上；继续预计今年每个季度的GAAP营业收入和净收入。
  
• 短评：由于人工智能解决方案的采用增加和政府支出的增加，Palantir发布了强劲的业绩，并上调了2024年的收入预测。随着越来越多的企业利用其平台测试、调试代码和分析与人工智能相关的场景，该公司利用了生成式人工智能的激增。Palantir强调了其人工智能平台在各个行业的有效性，并指出，例如，一家保险客户能够将承保时间从两周缩短到仅仅三个小时。虽然政府合同仍然是Palantir的重要收入来源，但商业客户对其人工智能驱动服务的需求也在不断增长。由于美国政府和私营部门客户对先进人工智能技术的高需求，该公司继续强调其加速增长和强劲的财务业绩。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：42至57美元。积极前景。
  

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $3.25B, -5.2% YoY, in-line with estimates
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.45, beat estimates by $0.02
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be between a range of $3.0bn to $3.2bn, compared to a consensus of $3.36bn; Expect gross profit to be between $1.674bn to $1.82bn; expects tax rate to be between 17.2% to 18.2%; Expect diluted EPS to be between $2.26 to $2.66.
  
• Comment: NXP Semiconductors posted stronger-than-expected earnings but issued a cautious forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024. The company saw resilience in the communication infrastructure, mobile, and automotive sectors, but faced increasing macroeconomic challenges in the industrial and IoT markets. Additionally, enterprise spending cuts, driven by budget constraints in a sluggish economy, have weighed on demand. Consumer reluctance toward the high cost of electric vehicles has also impacted sales, with European automakers struggling to compete against more affordable Chinese alternatives. At the same time, China has been advancing its domestic semiconductor industry, and the European Commission has cautioned that European chipmakers risk losing significant market share as a result. Looking ahead, NXP expects fourth-quarter revenue to fall below expectations, citing ongoing softness in semiconductor demand within the auto sector, along with broader economic challenges in Europe and the Americas. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $235. Negative Outlook.
  

恩智浦 (NXPI)

• 24财年第三季营收：32.5亿美元，同比跌幅5.2%，符合预期
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.45美元，超预期0.02美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度营收将在30亿美元至32亿美元之间，而市场预期为33.6亿美元；预计毛利润将在16.74亿美元至18.2亿美元之间；预计税率在17.2%至18.2%之间；预计摊薄后每股收益将在2.26美元至2.66美元之间。
  
• 短评：恩智浦半导体公布了强于预期的收益，但对2024年第四季度发布了谨慎的预测。该公司在通信基础设施、移动和汽车领域看到了弹性，但在工业和物联网市场面临越来越多的宏观经济挑战。此外，由于经济低迷导致预算紧张，企业削减了支出，这也拖累了需求。消费者对高成本电动汽车的不情愿也影响了销售，欧洲汽车制造商难以与更实惠的中国替代品竞争。与此同时，中国一直在推动国内半导体产业的发展，欧盟委员会警告称，欧洲芯片制造商可能因此失去大量市场份额。展望未来，恩智浦预计第四季度收入将低于预期，原因是汽车行业半导体需求持续疲软，同时欧洲和美洲面临更广泛的经济挑战。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：200至235美元。负面前景。
  

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.69B, +1.2% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90, miss estimates by $0.20
  
• 3Q24 Share Buyback: The company repurchased 1,464,773 shares of its common stock under its publicly announced equity repurchased program at an average price of $80.37 per share, for an aggregate cost of $117.7mn, bringing the total repurchases by the company for 9M24 to 2,206,113 shares of its common stock for an aggregate cost of $185.7mn.
  
• FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Comment: Wynn Resorts reported a weaker-than-expected performance, driven by a soft casino business in Las Vegas. However, the company saw strong mass-gaming wins in Macau and steady non-gaming growth in Las Vegas. Las Vegas revenue fell by 1.9% to $607.17mn, primarily due to a 13.6% YoY decrease in casino revenue. This decline was partially offset by a 20% increase in revenue from entertainment, retail, and other segments. Looking ahead, Wynn is actively investing in growth with the construction of Wynn Al Marjan Island progressing quickly. The new resort, expected to open in 2027, is anticipated by management to become a premier tourism destination in the UAE, supporting robust, long-term free cash flow growth. Management also plans to enhance shareholder returns through regular dividends and selective share repurchases. The Board has expanded its share repurchase authorization to $1bn. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $82 to $102. Neutral Outlook.
  

永利度假村 (WYNN)

• 24财年第三季营收：169亿美元，同比增幅1.2%，逊预期4,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.90美元，逊预期0.20美元
  
• 24财年第三季股票回购：根据公开宣布的股权回购计划，公司以每股800.37美元的平均价格回购了1,464,773股普通股，总成本为1.177亿美元，使公司在2009年的普通股回购总额达到2,206,113股，总成本为1.857亿美元。
  
• 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  
• 短评：受拉斯维加斯赌场业务疲软的影响，永利度假村公布了低于预期的业绩。不过，该公司在澳门的大众博彩业务取得了强劲的盈利，在拉斯维加斯的非博彩业务也实现了稳定增长。拉斯维加斯收入下降1.9%至6.0717亿美元，主要原因是赌场收入同比下降13.6%。这一下降部分被娱乐、零售和其他领域20%的收入增长所抵消。展望未来，永利正积极投资于增长，永利阿尔马尔詹岛的建设进展迅速。新度假村预计将于2027年开业，管理层预计将成为阿联酋首屈一指的旅游目的地，支持强劲的长期自由现金流增长。管理层还计划通过定期派息和选择性股票回购来提高股东回报。董事会已将其股票回购授权扩大至10亿美元。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：82至102美元。中性前景。