KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 19 April 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Seaenergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (SHIP US)

  • Shares closed at a 52-week high with constructive volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 9.45, Target 10.25, Stop 9.05

Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is turning constructive.
  • Long – Entry 4.75, Target 5.15, Stop 4.55

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Genting Singapore Ltd. (GENS SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 0.925, Target 0.985, Stop 0.895

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd. (JCNC SP)

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  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 26.6, Target 28.6, Stop 25.6

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China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd. (3968 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since October 2023 with constructive volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 32.3, Target 35.3, Stop 30.8
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Bank of Communications Co. Ltd. (3328 HK)

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  • Shares closed at a high since May 2023 with a surge in volume.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, while RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 5.30, Target 5.60, Stop 5.15

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $18.87B, +12.9% YoY, beat estimates by $860M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPADR: $1.38, beat estimates by $0.06
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expects second-quarter revenue to be between $19.6 billion and $20.4 billion
  • Comment: TSMC reported robust results driven by sustained strong demand for advanced chips, particularly those utilized in AI applications. The company anticipates a potential sales increase of up to 30% in 2Q24, propelled by the surge in demand for semiconductors powering AI technologies. TSMC expects its business to benefit from robust demand for its leading-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, although this could be partly offset by ongoing seasonal fluctuations in the smartphone market. Despite these dynamics, the company maintains its capital spending plans for the year within the range of $28bn to $32bn and reiterates its expectation for 2024 revenue to grow in the low- to mid-20% range in U.S. dollar terms, anticipating a more gradual recovery for the fiscal year. Although some of the company’s wafers were affected by the recent earthquake in Taiwan, TSMC projects that most of the lost production will be recovered in the second quarter, with the impact on revenue expected to be minimal.2Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $150. Neutral Outlook.

阿斯麦(TSM)

  • 24财年第一季营收：53亿欧元，同比跌幅20.9%，逊预期6,000万欧元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：3.11欧元，超预期0.15欧元
  • 24财年第二季指引：预计总净销售额在57亿欧元至62亿欧元之间，毛利率在50%至51%之间。24财年指引：预计24财年总净销售额与2023年相似。
  • 23财年股息：公司表示计划宣布2023年度的总股息为每股普通股6.10欧元，与2022年相比增长5.2%。提交年度股东大会的最终股息建议为每普通股1.75欧元。
  • 短评：阿斯麦报告的业绩喜忧参半。尽管美国主导的限制措施持续存在，但对中国的出口仍保持弹性。然而，第一季度的新预订量为36亿欧元，低于预期，同比下降4.0%，季度环比下降61%，而预期为54亿欧元。展望未来，公司预计2024年下半年将更加强劲，并将这一年视为一个过渡期。该公司计划继续投资于产能扩张和技术进步，为即将到来的市场周期转变做好准备。阿斯麦预计，今年晚些时候，来自英特尔和台积电等美国代工制造商的订单将增加。不过，美国加强对华出口管制可能会影响该公司在该地区的近期销售。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：850美至1050美元。中性前景。

Blackstone Inc. (BX)

  • 1Q24 DE: $0.98 (+1% YoY), beat estimates by $0.01
  • 1Q24 Total AUM: Total AUM of $1,061.3bn (+0.1% YoY), increasing by $34bn in 1Q24.
  • FY24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • 1Q24 Dividend: Blackstone declares variable dividend of $0.83/share quarterly dividend, down from prior dividend of $0.94; Forward yield 2.7%; Payable May 6; for shareholders of record April 29; ex-div April 26.
  • Comment: Blackstone exceeded expectations with its financial results, driven by strong performance in its credit strategies. The alternative asset manager increased its Assets Under Management (AUM) by $34 billion in the first quarter of 2024, primarily fueled by growth in its credit strategies. The delayed rate cut environment is also likely to continue to bolster the company’s credit strategies. Management observes a growing momentum in the company’s private credit and private wealth businesses, alongside a bolstering transaction environment and attractive opportunities for capital deployment. As capital markets reopen, Blackstone has intensified its activity, deploying $24.5 billion during the quarter, more than double the investments made in the same period of 2023. However, the company also acknowledges that it is still in the early stages of recovery, and anticipates that it will take time for Private Equity (PE) firms to distribute cash to investors. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Positive Outlook.

金沙集团(BX)

  • 24财年第一季营收：26.9亿美元，同比增幅39.6%，超预期2,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股收益：0.75美元，超预期0.13美元
  • 24财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：受澳门和新加坡业务显著增长的提振，金沙集团公布了强劲的财务业绩。澳门的业务在整个季度稳步复苏，而新加坡滨海湾金沙在财务和运营方面取得了创纪录的成功。公司将继续致力于在这两个市场进行投资，以提高其规模、质量和多样性，以充分利用亚洲不断扩大的旅游和旅游支出。这些改造计划于2024年底至2025年初完成，在此过程中可能会对公司的资本流动造成一些干扰。但是，这些升级服务的全部财政影响只有在整修工作结束后才能实现。此外，该公司在2024年第一季度回购了约4.5亿美元的普通股，并继续将股票回购和增加金沙中国的所有权视为有价值的策略。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：45美至55美元。中性前景。

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

  • 2Q24 Revenue: $9.11B, +14.3% YoY, beat estimates by $880M
  • 2Q24 GAAP EPS: $3.52, beat estimates by $0.47
  • FY24 Guidance: Expects Consolidated revenues of approximately $36.7 billion to $37.7 billion vs. $36.75B consensus; Homes closed by homebuilding operations of 89,000 homes to 91,000 homes; Income tax rate of approximately 23.5% to 24.0%.
  • 2Q24 Dividend: D.R. Horton declares $0.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.82%; Payable May 9; for shareholders of record May 2; ex-div May 1.
  • Comment: D.R. Horton delivered robust results and raised its fiscal year 2024 outlook, benefiting from the persistent shortage of housing supply, which has bolstered sales. The company experienced a 14% increase in net sales orders to 26,456 homes and a 17% rise in value to $10.1bn. Both new and existing homes at affordable price points remain scarce, and favorable demographics continue to support housing demand despite elevated inflation and mortgage interest rates. However, the U.S. 30-year mortgage rate recently climbed to a four-month high of 7.13%, potentially indicating a more challenging path to recovery for the residential real estate market. This could pose some demand-side challenges for the company in the near term. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $130 to $160. Neutral Outlook.

美国铝业(DHI)

  • 24财年第一季营收：26亿美元，同比跌幅2.6%，超预期4,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.81美元，逊预期0.37美元
  • 24年第二季度指引：在24财年第二季，氧化铝部门调整后的EBITDA中，公司预计澳大利亚业务的季节性维护和其他采矿成本增加将带来2,000万美元的连续不利影响。该公司预计，有利的原材料价格和生产成本将被更高的能源成本完全抵消。铝材部门的氧化铝成本预计将连续减少1,500万美元。美国铝业预计今年的利息支出约为1.45亿美元。
  • 24财年指引：预计2024年氧化铝部分总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在980万至1,000万吨之间，以及1,270万至1,290万吨之间；预计2024年铝材总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在220万至230万吨和250万至260万吨之间。
  • 短评：美国铝业公布的业绩喜忧参半。虽然氧化铝部门的第三方收入增长了6%，但铝部门的收入下降了3%，主要是由于铝的平均第三方实现价格下降。值得注意的是，铝价最近飙升至52周高点。此外，拜登宣布将中国进口钢铁和铝的关税提高两倍，预计将提振对国内生产的铝的需求。原材料价格不断上涨，加上对本地生产铝的需求增加，可能会推动美国铝业的收入上升。此外，该公司已经敲定了收购氧化铝有限公司的条款，预计该交易将带来战略、运营和财务优势。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：33美至42美元。积极前景。

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $9.37B, +14.8% YoY, beat estimates by $90M
  • 1Q24 GAAP EPS: $5.28, beat estimates by $0.76
  • 2Q24 Guidance: Expect Revenue of $9.49B vs $9.28 consensus; EPS of $4.68 vs $4.54 consensus; Forecast revenue growth of 16%. FY24 Guidance: Expects healthy revenue growth of 13% to 15%; expects FY24 operating margin of 25%.
  • Comment: Netflix announced impressive results, achieving its strongest first-quarter customer additions since the onset of the pandemic and solidifying its position as the leading global streaming platform. With a remarkable increase of 9.33mn subscribers during the quarter, Netflix reached a record high of 269.6mn subscribers, showcasing the effectiveness of its efforts to address password sharing. However, the company cautioned that it will cease reporting key subscriber numbers starting next year, prompting Wall Street to shift its focus to revenue and profit rather than user growth. This change may indicate a potential slowdown in Netflix’s second wave of subscriber growth resulting from its crackdown on password sharing, reflecting the company’s maturity. Despite this, Netflix is expanding into new territories such as sports and video games while continuing to license content from rival media firms to enhance profitability. Moreover, the company continues to leverage its global presence, maintaining a robust pipeline of new shows. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $530 to $630. Neutral Outlook.

美国铝业(NFLX)

  • 24财年第一季营收：26亿美元，同比跌幅2.6%，超预期4,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.81美元，逊预期0.37美元
  • 24年第二季度指引：在24财年第二季，氧化铝部门调整后的EBITDA中，公司预计澳大利亚业务的季节性维护和其他采矿成本增加将带来2,000万美元的连续不利影响。该公司预计，有利的原材料价格和生产成本将被更高的能源成本完全抵消。铝材部门的氧化铝成本预计将连续减少1,500万美元。美国铝业预计今年的利息支出约为1.45亿美元。
  • 24财年指引：预计2024年氧化铝部分总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在980万至1,000万吨之间，以及1,270万至1,290万吨之间；预计2024年铝材总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在220万至230万吨和250万至260万吨之间。
  • 短评：美国铝业公布的业绩喜忧参半。虽然氧化铝部门的第三方收入增长了6%，但铝部门的收入下降了3%，主要是由于铝的平均第三方实现价格下降。值得注意的是，铝价最近飙升至52周高点。此外，拜登宣布将中国进口钢铁和铝的关税提高两倍，预计将提振对国内生产的铝的需求。原材料价格不断上涨，加上对本地生产铝的需求增加，可能会推动美国铝业的收入上升。此外，该公司已经敲定了收购氧化铝有限公司的条款，预计该交易将带来战略、运营和财务优势。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：33美至42美元。积极前景。

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

  • 1Q24 Revenue: $1.89B, +11.8% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  • 1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.50, beat estimates by $0.08
  • 2Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  • Comment: Intuitive Surgical delivered impressive results, fueled by growth in da Vinci procedure volume and an expansion of the installed base of systems. Worldwide da Vinci procedures increased by approximately 16% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The company saw a 14% rise in its da Vinci surgical system installed base, reaching 8,887 systems as of March 31, 2024, compared to 7,779 systems at the end of the first quarter of 2023. Intuitive Surgical obtained Food and Drug Administration clearance for its da Vinci 5 system a month ago and subsequently placed eight new systems within two weeks after clearance, potentially generating significant new demand in the near term. The demand for Intuitive Surgical’s da Vinci surgical system is expected to remain robust as healthcare providers seek to enhance their physicians’ capabilities to achieve better patient outcomes. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $365 to $420. Positive Outlook.

美国铝业(ISRG)

  • 24财年第一季营收：26亿美元，同比跌幅2.6%，超预期4,000万美元
  • 24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股亏损：0.81美元，逊预期0.37美元
  • 24年第二季度指引：在24财年第二季，氧化铝部门调整后的EBITDA中，公司预计澳大利亚业务的季节性维护和其他采矿成本增加将带来2,000万美元的连续不利影响。该公司预计，有利的原材料价格和生产成本将被更高的能源成本完全抵消。铝材部门的氧化铝成本预计将连续减少1,500万美元。美国铝业预计今年的利息支出约为1.45亿美元。
  • 24财年指引：预计2024年氧化铝部分总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在980万至1,000万吨之间，以及1,270万至1,290万吨之间；预计2024年铝材总产量和出货量将保持不变，分别在220万至230万吨和250万至260万吨之间。
  • 短评：美国铝业公布的业绩喜忧参半。虽然氧化铝部门的第三方收入增长了6%，但铝部门的收入下降了3%，主要是由于铝的平均第三方实现价格下降。值得注意的是，铝价最近飙升至52周高点。此外，拜登宣布将中国进口钢铁和铝的关税提高两倍，预计将提振对国内生产的铝的需求。原材料价格不断上涨，加上对本地生产铝的需求增加，可能会推动美国铝业的收入上升。此外，该公司已经敲定了收购氧化铝有限公司的条款，预计该交易将带来战略、运营和财务优势。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：33美至42美元。积极前景。

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