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Technical Analysis – 10 August 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

CF Industries Holdings. (CF US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 20dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 82.0, Target 90.0, Stop 78.0

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 67.4, Target 73.4, Stop 64.4

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OCBC Bank (OCBC SP)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 13.1, Target 13.9 Stop 12.7

iFAST. (IFAST SP)

  • Shares closed at a high since Jan 23, with constructive volume. 50dEMA recently crossed the 200dEMA. 
  • RSI just turned positive, and MACD is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 5.80 Target 6.20, Stop 5.60

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Jiumaojiu International Holdings Ltd (9922 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  • Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 14.48, Target 15.86, Stop 13.79

WuXi AppTec Co Ltd (2359 HK)

  • Shares closed at a 3-month high above the 200dEMA with a spike in volume. The 5dEMA met the 200dEMA.
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 79.3, Target 85.9, Stop 76.0

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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $22.1B, -10.9% YoY, miss estimates by $1.02B.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.54, beats estimates by $0.04.
  • FY23 Guidance: Expecting consolidated revenues to be about $93B and consolidated operating margin to be around 11.8%. The company is reaffirming its capital allocation plans and expects capital expenditures to be about $5.3B, dividend payments to be around $5.4B, subject to board approval, and share repurchases to be around $3B.
  • Comment: The company mentioned that it lost business during its labor negotiations and online purchases have been weaker.  The company has reached an agreement with the Teamsters Union.  While this has allowed the company to avert a strike by its workers, this is likely to bring a fall in profit due to higher labour costs for the rest of FY23.  The company may benefit from increased demand for home building equipment, but a softening economy has also resulted in a downward movement of the company volume, as consumers make lesser online purchases, but instead spend on other consumer services like travel, movies, eating out, and live events etc. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $165 to $185. Negative Outlook.

联合包裹 (UPS)

  • 23财年第二季营收：221亿美元, 同比下跌10.9%，逊预期10.2亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.54美元，超预期0.04美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计合并收入约为930亿美元，合并营业利润率约为11.8%。该公司正在重申其资本分配计划，预计资本支出约为53亿美元，股息支付约为54亿美元，有待董事会批准，股票回购约为30亿美元。
  • 短评：该公司提到，它在劳资谈判期间造成业务损失，网上购物也有所减弱。该公司已与卡车司机工会达成协议。尽管这让该公司避免了工人的罢工，但由于23财年剩余时间的劳动力成本上升，这可能会导致利润下降。该公司可能会受益于家用建筑设备需求的增加，但经济疲软也导致了公司业务量的下降，因为消费者减少了在线购物，而是将钱花在其他消费服务上，如旅游、电影、外出就餐和现场活动等。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：165美元至185美元。负面前景。

Datadog Inc. (DDOG)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $509M, +25.3% YoY, beat estimates by $7.96M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.36, beats estimates by $0.08.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenue between $521M and $525M vs. consensus of $535.50M; Non-GAAP operating income between $98M and $102M; Non-GAAP net income per share between $0.33 and $0.35 vs. consensus of $0.29. FY23 revenue between $2.05B and $2.06B vs. consensus of $2.09B; Non-GAAP operating income between $390M and $400M; Non-GAAP net income per share between $1.30 and $1.34 vs. consensus of $1.18.
  • Comment: The company continues to see larger spending customers still looking at scrutinizing costs and optimizing their cloud and observability usage. The company saw more pressure on cloud-native businesses than traditional enterprise customers. Although customers maintained their focus on cost optimization throughout the June quarter, there’s an emerging trend where more customers are redirecting their attention toward fostering innovation and integrating novel workloads into the cloud. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

数据狗 (DDOG)

  • 23财年第二季营收：5.09亿美元, 同比增幅25.3%，超预期796万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.36美元，超预期0.08美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：营收在5.21亿至5.25亿美元之间，而市场预期为5.355亿美元；Non-GAAP营业收入在9,800万美元至1.02亿美元之间；Non-GAAP每股净收入在0.33美元至0.35美元之间，而市场预期为0.29美元。23财年营收在20.5亿美元至20.6亿美元之间，市场预期为20.9亿美元；Non-GAAP营运收入在3.9亿美元至4亿美元之间；Non-GAAP每股净收入在1.30美元至1.34美元之间，而市场预期为1.18美元。
  • 短评：该公司继续发现，较大的消费客户仍在仔细审查成本，并优化他们的云计算和可观察性使用。该公司认为，与传统企业客户相比，云原生业务面临的压力更大。尽管客户在整个6月份的季度中仍然关注成本优化，但有一种新趋势是，越来越多的客户将注意力转向促进创新和将新工作负载集成到云中。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至100美元。中性前景。

Li Auto Inc. (LI)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $3.95B, +228.1% YoY, beat estimates $150M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.36, beats estimates by $0.17.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Deliveries of vehicles to be between 100,000 and 103,000 vehicles, representing an increase of 277.0% to 288.3% YoY. Total revenues to be between RMB32.33B (US$4.46B) and RMB33.30B (US$4.59B) vs. consensus of $3.88B, representing an increase of 246.0% to 256.4% YoY.
  • Comment: Li Auto reported a strong set of results for 1H23. This provides more optimism towards the EV market, with investors expecting demand for EVs to remain strong for the rest of year. The company’s profit margin came in at 21.8%, higher than its big rival Tesla, which reported a profit margin of 18.2%, showcasing Li Auto’s strong business strategy in the market. The company’s production capacity is roughly 50,000 a month, and is currently expanding its capacity to prepare for growth in 2024 and 2025. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $37 to $50. Positive Outlook.

理想汽车 (LI)

  • 23财年第二季营收：39.5亿美元, 同比增幅228.1%，超预期1.5亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.36美元，超预期0.17美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：车辆交付量在10万至10.3万辆之间，同比增长277.0%至288.3%。总营收介于人民币323.3亿元（约44.6亿美元）至人民币333.3亿元（约45.9亿美元）之间，市场预期为38.8亿美元，同比增长246.0%至256.4%。
  • 短评：理想汽车公布了2023年上半年的强劲业绩。这为电动汽车市场提供了更多的乐观情绪，投资者预计今年剩余时间内电动汽车的需求将保持强劲。该公司的利润率为21.8%，高于其主要竞争对手特斯拉的18.2%，显示出公司在市场上的强大商业战略。该公司的产能约为每月5万辆，目前正在扩大产能，为2024年和2025年的增长做准备。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：37美元至50美元。积极前景。

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.12B, +207.7% YoY, beat estimates by $110M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: -$1.08, beat estimates by $0.31.
  • FY23 Guidance: Based on the progress of production ramp, including the ramp of in-house motor, along with the latest understanding of the supply chain, the company is increasing production guidance to 52,000 from prior 50,000. The company is improving Adj. EBITDA guidance to $(4,200)M. The company has reduced expected capital expenditures for the year driven by a shift in expense timing, lowering capital expenditures guidance to $1,700M.
  • Comment: The company reported a strong set of results for 1H23, and raised its guidance for the rest of the year. The EV market saw a huge surge in demand in 2Q23, and is expected to increase even more for the rest of the year. Good earnings across the EV industry also brought a higher level of optimism within the industry. The company has also increased its production capacity, putting it in a better position to capture the demand for EVs for the rest of the year. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $20 to $30. Positive Outlook.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

  • 23财年第二季营收：11.2亿美元, 同比增幅207.7%，超预期1.1亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股亏损：1.08美元，超预期0.31美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：根据产能扩大的进展，包括内部电机的扩产，以及对供应链的最新了解，公司将生产指导从之前的5万辆增加到5.2万辆。该公司正在将调整后EBITDA指引提高至-4,200万美元。由于支出时间的变化，该公司降低了今年的预期资本支出，将资本支出指引下调至1.7亿美元。
  • 短评：该公司公布了2023年上半年的一系列强劲业绩，并上调了今年剩余时间的业绩预期。电动汽车市场在2013年第二季度出现了巨大的需求激增，预计在今年剩余时间里还会有更大的增长。电动汽车行业的良好收益也给该行业带来了更高的乐观情绪。该公司还增加了产能，使其在今年剩余时间内能够更好地满足电动汽车的需求。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：20美元至30美元。积极前景。

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)

  • 4Q23 Revenue: $2.18B, +32.9% YoY, beat estimates $200M.
  • 4Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.51, beat estimates by $0.60.
  • 1Q24 Guidance: The company expects net sales of $1.90B to $2.20B, vs. consensus of $2.05B. GAAP net income per diluted share of $2.02 to $2.80 and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $2.75 to $3.50, vs. consensus of $3.21. The Company expects FY24 net sales of $9.5B to $10.5B, vs. consensus of $6.92B. Comment: The company reported a solid set of results but provided a poorer than expected guidance, despite the market consensus of an expected spending surge to support artificial-intelligence technology. The company is seeing strong demand for its new generation of AI-focused products, and has secured several major contracts and is deploying cutting-edge GPU clusters. As supply chain challenges ease, the company is well-positioned to gain market share and scale up its operations. 1Q24 recommended trading range: $250 to $330. Positive Outlook.

超微电脑 (SMCI)

  • 23财年第四季营收：21.8亿美元, 同比增幅32.9%，超预期2.0亿美元 
  • 23财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.51美元，超预期0.60美元  
  • 24财年第一季指引：公司预计净销售额为19.9亿美元至2.2亿美元，而市场预期为20.5亿美元，GAAP摊薄每股净收入为2.02美元至2.80美元，Non-GAAP摊薄每股净收入为2.75美元至3.50美元，市场预期为3.21美元。该公司预计24财年全年净销售额为95亿至105亿美元，而市场预期为69.2亿美元。
  • 短评：该公司公布了一系列稳健的业绩，但提供的指引不如预期，尽管市场普遍认为，支持人工智能技术的支出预计将大幅增加。该公司看到了新一代人工智能产品的强劲需求，并获得了几项主要合同，并正在部署尖端的GPU集群。随着供应链挑战的缓解，该公司处于有利地位，可以获得市场份额并扩大业务规模。24财年第一季度建议交易区间：250美元至330美元。积极前景。

Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.04B, +10.2% YoY, beat estimates by $52.83M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.54, beat estimates by $0.24.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenue of $980M – $990M vs $1.02B consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 – $0.37 vs.$0.30 consensus.
  • Comment: The company mentioned that it will remain committed to its focus on driving efficient growth across its business.  Across the previous year, the company has been struggling with a rapid slowdown in revenue growth and has been focused on improving profitability since.  Although the market has been maintaining its focus on cost optimization throughout the June quarter, there’s an emerging trend where more customers are redirecting their attention toward fostering innovation and integrating novel workloads into the cloud.  This could provide a spark to boost demand for web services. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Positive Outlook.

Twilio (TWLO)

  • 23财年第二季营收：10.4亿美元, 同比增幅10.2%，超预期5,283万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.54美元，超预期0.24美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：营收9.8亿至9.9亿美元，预期为102亿美元。Non-GAAP每股收益为0.33美元至0.37美元，市场预期为0.30美元。
  • 短评：该公司提到，它将继续致力于推动其业务的高效增长。在过去的一年里，该公司一直在努力应对收入增长迅速放缓的问题，此后一直专注于提高盈利能力。尽管在整个第二季度，市场一直在关注成本优化，但有一种新趋势是，越来越多的客户将注意力转向促进创新和将新工作负载集成到云中。这可能会激发对网络服务的需求。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：55美元至75美元。积极前景。

Roblox Corp. (RBLX)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $780.69M, +22.0% YoY, beat estimates $2.72M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: -$0.46, misses estimates by $0.02.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: expect in 3Q23 that its bookings growth YoY will be faster than its infrastructure growth YoY. And continue to expect in 1Q24 that bookings growth will be faster than its head count expense and it expects to return to double-digit covenant adjusted EBITDA margins in Q4 and 2024 as a whole.
  • Comment: The company’s reported a lower than expectations bookings for the quarter, and also saw an increase in losses YoY. The company also mentioned that they expect to continue to report losses for the “foreseeable future”. The videogame industry is also struggling with a slowdown in spending as inflation-weary gamers become more selective in picking popular titles. The management express that the company would be engaging in cost cutting effort moving forward. Advancement in the AI sector has also enabled the company to create a multimodal generative AI model that works with all types of content. Furthermore, with its popularity as a gaming platform, despite the challenges it faces, it anticipates that it is on track to reach its long-term goal of 1 billion daily users. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $22 to $36. Neutral Outlook.

Roblox (RBLX)

  • 23财年第二季营收：7.8069亿美元, 同比增幅22.0%，超预期272万美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股亏损：0.46美元，逊预期0.02美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：预计在23年第三季度，其预订量的同比增长将快于基础设施的同比增长；并继续预计在24财年第一季度，预订增长将快于其员工人数支出，预计第四季度和2024年整体调整后的EBITDA利润率将恢复到两位数。
  • 短评：该公司报告称，本季度的预订量低于预期，亏损也同比增加。该公司还提到，他们预计在“可预见的未来”将继续报告亏损。由于厌倦了通货膨胀的玩家在挑选流行游戏时变得更加挑剔，视频游戏行业也在努力应对支出放缓的问题。管理层表示，公司今后将努力削减成本。人工智能领域的进步也使该公司能够创建适用于所有类型内容的多模式生成人工智能模型。此外，作为一个游戏平台，尽管它面临着挑战，但它仍有望实现日活跃用户达到10亿的长期目标。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：22美元至36美元。中性前景。

Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $22.33B, +3.9% YoY, miss estimates by $200M.
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.03, beat estimates by $0.06.
  • 4Q23 Guidance: expect D2C ad revenue to continue to benefit from higher advertiser demand at Hulu as well as from the ramp-up of the Disney+ ad tier. Content sales line of business expeced to generate operating losses up to $100 million worse than last year’s fourth quarter. FY23 content spend to come in at approximately $27B, which is lower than previously guided.
  • Comment: Disney had a mixed quarter, with revenue below expectations but cost savings ahead of schedule. Its streaming business is growing but still losing money, its traditional television business is declining, and its movie business is struggling. However, its parks business is doing well. Disney is taking steps to cut costs, and it is on track to exceed its initial goal of $5.5B in savings. Additionally, Disney is raising the price of its ad-free Disney+ service by 27% to $13.99 per month and Hulu’s ad-free cost is jumping 20% to $17.99 per month. However, it will need to do more to improve its streaming business and its movie business if it wants to achieve long-term success. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $85 to $95. Neutral Outlook.

迪士尼 (DIS)

  • 23财年第三季营收：223.3亿美元, 同比增幅3.9%，逊预期2.0亿美元 
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.03美元，超预期0.06美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：预计D2C广告收入将继续受益于Hulu更高的广告需求，以及迪士尼+广告层的增加。内容销售业务线预计将比去年第四季度产生高达1亿美元的经营亏损。23财年内容支出约为270亿美元，低于此前的预期。
  • 短评：迪士尼的季度业绩喜忧参半，收入低于预期，但成本节约提前完成。其流媒体业务正在增长，但仍在亏损，其传统电视业务正在下滑，其电影业务也在苦苦挣扎。然而，它的主题公园业务做得很好。迪士尼正在采取措施削减成本，并有望超过最初节省55亿美元的目标。此外，迪士尼将其无广告Disney+服务的价格提高了27%，达到每月13.99美元，Hulu的无广告价格上涨了20%，达到每月17.99美元。然而，如果它想取得长期成功，它还需要做更多的工作来改善其流媒体业务和电影业务。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：85美元至95美元。中性前景。

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.6B, +76.1% YoY, beat estimates by $70M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.91, beat estimates by $0.19.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: The strength has continued into Q3 with mass drop per day in July exceeding what it experienced in each month in Q2 and reaching 120% of daily mass drop in 2019. In July, it also continued to experience robust hotel occupancy and very healthy tenant retail sales.
  • Comment: Wynn Resorts had a strong quarter, with adjusted property EBITDAR of $2.2B, up 60% YoY. The company’s properties in Las Vegas, Boston, and Macau all performed well, with each market seeing YoY growth in property EBITDAR. Wynn Resorts is seeing strong demand from all customer segments and is benefiting from the favourable mix shift to higher-margin mass gaming in Macau. The company is investing in its properties to improve the guest experience and drive further growth. We are confident in its long-term growth prospects and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $100 to $115. Positive Outlook.

永利度假村 (WYNN)

  • 23财年第二季营收：16.0亿美元, 同比增幅76.1%，超预期7,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.91美元，超预期0.19美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：这种势头持续到第三季度，7月份日均中场赌台下注超过了第二季度的每个月，达到了2019年日均中场赌台下注的120%。7月份，香港的酒店入住率继续保持强劲，租户零售销售也非常健康。
  • 短评：永利度假村的季度表现强劲，调整后的房地产EBITDAR为22亿美元，同比增长60%。该公司在拉斯维加斯、波士顿和澳门的物业均表现良好，每个市场的物业EBITDAR均实现同比增长。永利度假村看到所有细分客户的强劲需求，并正受益于澳门向利润率更高的大众博彩的有利组合转变。该公司正在投资其物业，以改善客人体验并推动进一步增长。我们对其长期增长前景和向股东返还资本的承诺充满信心。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：100美元至115美元。积极前景。

PENN Entertainment Inc. (PENN)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $1.67B, +3.1% YoY, beat estimates by $10M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $0.48, beat estimates by $0.01.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: No guidance provided. It announced a $2B deal under which it would rebrand its sports betting business, with Walt Disney’s ESPN as ESPN Bet.
  • Comment: PENN and ESPN have entered into a major deal to create ESPN Bet, a new sports betting and online casino platform. ESPN Bet will be integrated with ESPN’s existing media assets, and PENN will pay ESPN $150 million per year for marketing services. PENN Interactive expects to launch ESPN Bet in the fall of 2023, and the company believes that it has the potential to generate $500 million to $1 billion in incremental adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, PENN Interactive is selling Barstool Sports back to its founder, Dave Portnoy, at a dollar, after purchasing a 36% stake in 2019 for $163M and the remaining $388M this year. The deal with ESPN is expected to shake up the gaming industry, and it is expected to have a significant impact on the sports betting and online casino markets. However, it may be difficult to attain market shares of this market from DraftKings and FanDuel. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $25 to $30. Neutral Outlook.

佩恩国民博彩 (PENN)

  • 23财年第二季营收：16.7亿美元, 同比增幅3.1%，超预期1,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.48美元，超预期0.01美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：没有提供指引。它宣布了一项价值20亿美元的交易，根据该交易，它将重新命名其体育博彩业务，将迪士旗下的ESPN更名为ESPN Bet。
  • 短评：公司和ESPN达成了一项重大协议，将创建ESPN Bet，这是一个新的体育博彩和在线赌场平台。ESPN Bet将与ESPN现有的媒体资产整合，公司每年将向ESPN支付1.5亿美元的营销服务费用。PENN Interactive预计将在2023年秋季推出ESPN Bet，该公司认为，它有可能产生5亿至10亿美元的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润增量。此外，PENN Interactive将以1美元的价格将Barstool Sports出售给其创始人戴夫·波特诺伊(Dave Portnoy)，此前该公司于2019年以1.63亿美元收购了该公司36%的股份，今年以3.88亿美元收购了剩余股份。与ESPN的交易预计将撼动博彩行业，预计将对体育博彩和在线赌场市场产生重大影响。然而，该公司可能很难从DraftKings and FanDuel那里获得这个市场的市场份额。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：25美元至30美元。中性前景。

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