KGI Research Singapore

Singapore's leading broker offering Futures, FX, Equities and Wealth Management.

Technical Analysis – 4 September 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Samsara Inc. (IOT US)

  • Shares closed at a high with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is at an “overbought” level.
  • Long – Entry 30.0, Target 33.0, Stop 28.5

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT US)

  • Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. The 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 156, Target 170, Stop 149

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CapitaLand Investment (CLI SP)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMa with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
  • MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 3.20, Target 3.40 Stop 3.00

UOL Group Ltd. (UOL SP)

  • Shares closed above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA. 
  • MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  • Long – Entry 6.60 Target 7.00, Stop 6.40

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Lenovo Group Ltd (992 HK)

  • Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an incline in volume. The 20dEMA crossed the 50dEMA. 
  • Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  • Long – Entry 8.76, Target 9.20, Stop 8.54

SenseTime Group Inc (20 HK)

  • Shares tested the 20dEMA and closed slightly below it above the 5dEMA with rising volume. 
  • RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  • Long – Entry 1.58, Target 1.74, Stop 1.50

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Dollar General Corp (DG)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $9.8B, +3.9% YoY, miss estimates by $110M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.13, miss estimates by $0.34.
  • FY23 Guidance: Net sales growth in the range of 1.3% to 3.3%, compared to its previous expectation of 3.5% to 5.0%; Same-store sales growth in the range of a decline of approximately 1.0% to growth of 1.0%, compared to its previous expectation of growth in the range of 1.0% to 2.0%; Diluted EPS in the range of approximately $7.10 to $8.30, or a decline of 34% to 22%, compared to its previous year-over-year change expectation of an approximate 8% decline to flat growth; effective tax rate of approximately 22.5%; Capital expenditures in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion; 3,110 real estate projects in the United States, including 990 new store openings, 2,000 remodels, and 120 store relocations.
  • Comment: Dollar General has revised its profit outlook downwards due to challenges like weak customer traffic and a shift to lower-margin products, along with disappointing 2Q23 results. The company faces issues like bloated inventories and evolving consumer spending habits. To address these, Dollar General plans to clear excess inventory and increase labor investments before the holiday season. Slower transactions and higher expected shrinkage were cited for the lowered guidance. The retailer anticipates positive store traffic in Q4 but is competing with Walmart and Dollar Tree for market share. Dollar General’s 2023 same-store sales forecast is slower than expected, and profit-per-share is expected to drop by 22% to 34%. Despite challenges, the company has made Q2 progress, expanding its store base and enhancing execution. Dollar General remains committed to rural areas, digital growth, and initiatives like DG Fresh and pOpshelf. Investments in the supply chain, operating model, and IT foundation are fueling future growth, and the company emphasizes employee development. While challenges persist, we believe that its strategies will work for long-term growth but fall through in the short-term. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $125 to $145. Neutral Outlook. 

达乐公司 (DG)

  • 23财年第二季营收：98亿美元, 同比增幅3.9%，逊预期1.1亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.13美元，逊预期0.34美元  
  • 23财年指引：净销售额增长1.3%至3.3%，而此前预期为3.5%至5.0%；同店销售增长幅度约为下降1.0%至增长1.0%，而此前预期增长幅度为1.0%至2.0%；稀释后每股收益约为 7.10 美元至 8.30 美元，即下降 34% 至 22%，而之前的同比变化预期为下降约 8% 至持平增长；有效税率约为22.5%；资本支出在16亿至17亿美元之间；美国有3,110个商店项目，其中990个新店开业、2,000个改造和120个商店搬迁。
  • 短评：由于客户流量疲软、转向利润率较低的产品等挑战，以及令人失望的 2023 年第二季度业绩，公司下调了利润前景。该公司面临库存膨胀和消费者消费习惯不断变化等问题。为了解决这些问题，公司计划在假期前清理过剩库存并增加劳动力投资。下调指引的原因是交易放缓和预期收缩幅度加大。该零售商预计第四季度的商店客流量将增加，但正在与沃尔玛和公司争夺市场份额。 公司2023年同店销售预测慢于预期，每股利润预计下降22%至34%。尽管面临挑战，该公司在第二季度取得了进展，扩大了门店数量并增强了执行力。 公司仍然致力于农村地区、数字增长以及DG Fresh 和pOpshelf 等计划。对供应链、运营模式和IT基础的投资正在推动未来的增长，公司强调员工发展。尽管挑战依然存在，但我们相信其战略将有助于长期增长，但在短期内会有利空。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：125美元至145美元。中性前景。

Broadcom Inc (AVGO)

  • 3Q23 Revenue: $8.88B,+5.0% YoY, beat estimates by $20M.
  • 3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $10.54, beat estimates by $0.11.
  • 4Q23 Guidance: Revenue is expected to be approximate $9.27bn, an increase of 4% from the prior year period and adjusted EBITDA guidance of approximately 65% of projected revenue.
  • Repurchased Shares: Repurchased and eliminated 2.9mn shares for $2,167mn. 
  • Comment: Broadcom has projected Q4 revenue below Wall Street expectations due to concerns about weak enterprise spending and intense competition in the networking chip sector. These factors may outweigh the advantages of increased demand driven by artificial intelligence. Soft enterprise demand and a slower recovery in consumer electronics markets, such as smartphones, have also impacted Broadcom’s semiconductor business. Despite having shown a 4.8% YoY incline in semiconductor solutions revenue and a 5.2% YoY gain in its infrastructure software revenue, the software industry as a whole is feeling the effects of reduced IT budgets in both the US and Europe. Broadcom’s software portfolio has been affected as well. Despite introducing new networking products for AI workloads, the company faces rising competition from Nvidia and others. With the industry facing similar challenges, we anticipate sales to continue to be affected for the rest of the year. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $800 to $875. Negative Outlook. 

高通 (AVGO)

  • 23财年第三季营收：88.8亿美元, 同比增幅5.0%，超预期2,000万美元 
  • 23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：10.54美元，超预期0.11美元  
  • 23财年第四季指引：营收指引为约92.7亿美元，较上年同期增长4%，调整后 EBITDA 指引约占预计收入的65%。
  • 股票回购：以21.67亿美元回购并注销290万股股票。
  • 短评：由于担心企业支出疲软和网络芯片领域的激烈竞争，博通预计第四季度收入低于华尔街预期。这些因素可能会超过人工智能驱动的需求增加的优势。企业需求疲软和智能手机等消费电子市场复苏缓慢也影响了博通的半导体业务。尽管半导体解决方案收入同比增长 4.8%，基础设施软件收入同比增长 5.2%，但整个软件行业都感受到了美国和欧洲 IT 预算减少的影响。博通的软件产品组合也受到了影响。尽管针对人工智能工作负载推出了新的网络产品，该公司仍面临着来自英伟达和其他公司日益激烈的竞争。由于该行业面临类似的挑战，我们预计今年剩余时间的销售将继续受到影响。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：800美元至875美元。负面前景。

Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $2.21B, +18.2% YoY, beat estimates by $40M.
  • 2Q23 GAAP EPS: $2.68, beat estimates by $0.14.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of $2.165B to $2.190B, representing growth of 17% to 18%, compared to the estimate of $2.17B. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $2.23 to $2.28 for the quarter compared to the analyst estimate of $2.24. FY23 Guidance: expects net revenue to be in the range of $9.51B to $9.57B, representing growth of 17% to 18% and versus the estimate of $9.51B. Diluted earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $12.02 to $12.17 versus the estimate of $11.94.
  • Comment: Lululemon reported robust 2Q results with an 18% increase in sales and profit, primarily propelled by a remarkable 61% revenue surge in China, leading the company to raise its FY23 guidance, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects. Lululemon’s strong international performance, particularly in China, was underscored by the earnings and revenue it delivered in 2Q23. North American sales were up 11% alongside its bag segment which drove a 44% increase in accessories in particular its “Everywhere Belt Bag”, which has gained massive attention generating revenue. The company’s strategic initiatives, such as expanding its physical stores, focusing on the men’s category, and addressing inventory issues, align with its ambitious goal of doubling sales to $12.5 billion by 2026. We believe that Lululemon will continue to excel in 2H23 with its ability to capture market share and attract new customers. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $400 to $440. Positive Outlook. 

露露柠檬 (LULU)

  • 23财年第二季营收：22.1亿美元, 同比增幅18.2%，超预期4,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.68美元，超预期0.14美元  
  • 23财年第三季指引：营预计收入将在$2.165B至$2.190B范围内，较预期的$2.17B增长17%至18%。本季度稀释后每股收益预计在2.23美元至2.28美元之间，而分析师预期为2.24美元。23财年指引：预计净收入将在$9.51B至$9.57B范围内，增长17%至18%，而预期为$9.51B。稀释后每股收益预计为12.02美元至12.17美元，而预期为11.94美元。
  • 短评：公司公布了强劲的第二季度业绩，销售额和利润增长了 18%，这主要得益于中国收入大幅增长 61%，导致该公司上调了 2023 财年指引，反映出对其增长前景的信心。 公司在国际市场（尤其是在中国）的强劲表现在 2023 年第二季度的盈利和收入中得到了体现。北美销售额增长了 11%，箱包细分市场的销售额增长了 44%，尤其是“Everywhere Belt Bag”，它受到了广泛关注并产生了收入。该公司的战略举措，例如扩大实体店、专注于男装品类以及解决库存问题，与其到 2026 年销售额翻一番至 125 亿美元的雄心勃勃的目标相一致。我们相信公司将凭借其能力在下半年继续表现出色占领市场份额并吸引新客户。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：400美元至440美元。积极前景。

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $22.93B, -13.2% YoY, beat estimates by $2.09B.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.74, beat estimates by $0.60.
  • 3Q23 Guidance: Revenue between $22.5 billion and $23.5 billion and expects earnings per share of $1.45, plus or minus 10 cents. FY23 Guidance: expects revenue between $89.5 billion and $91.5 billion, and earnings per share of $6.30, plus or minus 20 cents.
  • Comment: Dell Technologies raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast, showcasing its recovery from a previous slump in demand for computer hardware and servers. The increase in demand for PowerEdge servers and generative AI designs, developed in partnership with Nvidia, reflects the growing investments in artificial intelligence by major tech firms. Strong demand for AI-optimized servers contributed to an 11% increase in servers and networking revenue in Q2, while the client solutions group saw an 8% increase in revenue. Dell’s focus on profitable market segments and software-defined storage solutions have driven growth, indicating a positive outlook driven by AI and tech spending recovery. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $65 to $75. Positive Outlook. 

戴尔科技 (DELL)

  • 23财年第二季营收：229.3亿美元, 同比跌幅13.2%，超预期20.9亿美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.74美元，超预期0.60美元  
  • 23财年指引：营收在225至235亿美元之间，预计每股收益为1.45美元，上下浮动0.10美元。23财年指引：预计营收在895亿美元至915亿美元之间，每股收益6.30美元，上下浮动20美分。
  • 短评：戴尔科技集团上调了全年收入和利润预测，显示其已从之前计算机硬件和服务器需求的低迷中复苏。对与 Nvidia 合作开发的 PowerEdge 服务器和生成式 AI 设计的需求增加，反映出主要科技公司对人工智能的投资不断增加。对人工智能优化服务器的强劲需求导致第二季度服务器和网络收入增长了 11%，而客户端解决方案部门的收入增长了 8%。戴尔对盈利细分市场和软件定义存储解决方案的关注推动了增长，表明人工智能和技术支出复苏推动了积极的前景。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：65美元至75美元。积极前景。

VMware Inc (VMW)

  • 2Q23 Revenue: $3.41B, +2.1% YoY, miss estimates by $50M.
  • 2Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.83, beat estimates by $0.11.
  • FY23 Guidance: Not provided.
  • Comment: VMware reported a mixed Q2 performance, missing revenue estimate while displaying strong 34% YoY growth in subscription and SaaS revenue, totaling $1.26bn, and a 6% YoY increase in its RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation) to $12.88bn. Notably, the acquisition of VMware by Broadcom, valued at around $61 bn in cash and stock, is progressing smoothly, having recently received final approval from the United Kingdom’s antitrust regulator and encountering no challenges from the United States This acquisition is poised to bring significant benefits to VMware. The deal is expected to close on 30 October 2023. 3Q23 recommended trading range: $160 to $175. Positive Outlook. 

VMware (VMW)

  • 23财年第二季营收：34.1亿美元, 同比增幅2.1%，逊预期5,000万美元 
  • 23财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.83美元，超预期0.11美元  
  • 23财年指引：不提供指引。
  • 短评：公司公布的第二季度业绩好坏参半，未达到收入预期，但订阅和SaaS收入同比强劲增长34%，总计12.6 亿美元，剩余绩效义务同比增长 6%，达到128.8亿美元。值得注意的是，博通以约610亿美元现金和股票收购VMware的交易进展顺利，近期已获得英国反垄断监管机构的最终批准，且未遇到来自美国的挑战，此次收购有望带来显着效益到VMware。该交易预计将于2023年10 月 30日完成。23财年第三季度建议交易区间：160美元至175美元。积极前景。

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