Technical Analysis – 4 December 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF US)

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Shares closed above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is negative.
Long – Entry 17.0, Target 18.0, Stop 16.5

United States Steel Corp (X US)

Shares closed at a high since April 2022, above the 5wEMA with rising volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 35.7, Target 38.3, Stop 34.4

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX SP)

Shares closed above the 50dEMA. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
Long – Entry 9.50, Target 9.80, Stop 9.35

Frencken Group Ltd (FRKN SP)

Shares closed at a high since February, above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 1.17, Target 1.23, Stop 1.14

China Coal Energy Co Ltd (1898 HK)

Shares closed at a high since May above the 5dEMA, with an increase in volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.

Long – Entry 6.68, Target 7.14, Stop 6.45

Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd (1171 HK)

Shares closed at a one month high, above the 5dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 14.6, Target 15.6, Stop 14.1

Kroger Co (KR)

3Q23 Revenue: $33.96B, -0.7% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.95, beat estimates by $0.03
FY23 Guidance: Identical sales without fuel growth of 0.6% – 1.0%, with underlying growth of 2.1% – 2.5% after adjusting for the effect of Express Scripts; Adjusted FIFO Operating Profit of $4.9B – $5.0B; Adjusted net earnings per diluted share of $4.50 – $4.60, including an estimated benefit from the 53rd week of approximately $0.15; Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $2.5B – $2.7B; Adjusted effective tax rate of 23%; Capital expenditures of $3.4B – $3.6B.

Comment: Despite beating both revenue and earnings estimates, Kroger has revised its annual sales forecast downward due to moderating food and grocery prices, impacting demand amid consumer spending constraints. Lower grocery prices, particularly for fresh items, and consumer thriftiness in choosing cheaper alternatives have influenced this trend. The company increased promotions to stimulate demand, emphasising low-price everyday staples. While expense control and higher-margin private-label items contributed to Kroger surpassing Q3 profit estimates, identical sales growth expectations for FY23 were reduced to 0.6%-1%. The company also affirmed its substantial compliance with the Federal Trade Commission’s request for information on the Albertsons deal. As inflation gradually recedes, we expect the company’s sales to align with the decreasing inflationary trends, demonstrating a corresponding increase in its sales volume. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $43 to $50. Neutral Outlook.

克罗格 (KR)

23财年第三季营收：339.6亿美元, 同比跌幅0.7%，超预期6,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.95美元，超预期0.03美元
23财年指引：不含燃料的相同销售额增长为0.6% – 1.0%，经快速药方部门影响调整后的潜在增长率为2.1% – 2.5%；调整后的FIFO营业利润为49亿至50亿美元；调整后的摊薄每股净收益为4.50美元至4.60美元，包括第53周约0.15美元的估计收益;调整后自由现金流为25亿至27亿美元；调整有效税率23%；资本支出34亿至36亿美元。
短评：尽管收入和盈利双双超出预期，但由于食品和杂货价格放缓，消费者支出受限，影响了需求，克罗格下调了年度销售预期。较低的食品价格，特别是新鲜食品的价格，以及消费者在选择更便宜的替代品方面的节俭影响了这一趋势。该公司增加了促销活动以刺激需求，强调低价的日常必需品。虽然费用控制和更高利润率的自有品牌项目有助于克罗格超过第三季度的利润预期，但23财年的相同销售增长预期降至0.6%-1%。该公司还确认，它在很大程度上遵守了联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission)的要求，要求提供有关Albertsons交易的信息。随着通货膨胀的逐渐消退，我们预计公司的销售额将与通货膨胀的下降趋势保持一致，显示其销售额相应增加。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：43美元至50美元。中性前景。

Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

3Q24 Revenue: $1.42B, -7.8% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.41, beat estimates by $0.49
4Q24 Guidance: Net revenue is expected to be $1.420B +/- 5%. GAAP gross margin is expected to be 48.2% – 50.7%. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 63.5% – 64.5%. GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $680M. Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $430M. Basic weighted average shares outstanding are expected to be 865M. Diluted weighted average shares outstanding are expected to be 874M. GAAP diluted loss per share is expected to be $(0.03) +/- $0.05 per share. Non-GAAP diluted income per share is expected to be $0.46 +/- $0.05 per share.
Comment: Marvell Technology outperformed expectations in Q3, beating analysts’ estimates for both revenue and earnings. The company foresees growth in its data center business, driven by its custom AI chip sector, despite an expected decline in roughly half of its revenue in 1Q24. The decline in segments like wireless carrier infrastructure and enterprise is attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment and prolonged inventory corrections by customers. Marvell’s CEO emphasises the unpredictability of the AI portion’s growth, while the data center segment exceeded Q3 revenue expectations. The company’s Q4 forecast falls below Wall Street estimates, reflecting concerns about inventory clearing affecting new orders. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $45 to $58. Negative Outlook.

迈威尔科技 (MRVL)

24财年第三季营收：14.2亿美元, 同比跌幅7.8%，超预期2,000万美元
24财年第三季GAAP每股亏损：0.41美元，超预期0.49美元
24财年指引：净收入预计为14.20亿美元+/- 5%。GAAP毛利率预计为48.2%至50.7%。Non-GAAP毛利率预计为63.5% – 64.5%。GAAP运营费用预计约为6.8亿美元。Non-GAAP运营费用预计约为4.3亿美元。基本加权平均流通股预计为8.65亿股。摊薄加权平均流通股预计为8.74亿股。GAAP摊薄后每股亏损预计为(0.03)美元+/- 0.05美元/每股。Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益预计为0.46美元+/-0.05美元。
短评：公司在第三季度的表现超出了预期，收入和收益都超过了分析师的预期。该公司预计，在其定制人工智能芯片部门的推动下，其数据中心业务将出现增长，尽管预计其第一季度收入将下降约一半。无线运营商基础设施和企业等细分市场的下滑归因于具有挑战性的宏观经济环境和客户长期的库存调整。公司首席执行官强调了人工智能部分增长的不可预测性，而数据中心部分超过了第三季度的收入预期。该公司第四季度的预测低于华尔街的预期，反映出对库存清理影响新订单的担忧。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：45美元至58美元。负面前景。

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)

3Q23 Revenue: $2.49B, +8.3% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $5.07, beat estimates by $0.10
FY23 Guidance: Raised net sales are expected between $11.10B to $11.15B vs $11.16B consensus. Diluted earnings per share is expected between $25.50 to $25.60 vs $25.40 consensus.
Comment: Ulta Beauty delivered strong results in Q3 and reported a 6% YoY increase in sales. The company witnessed strong consumer spending on fragrances, skincare, and more despite economic uncertainties. The beauty retailer’s longtime CFO, Scott Settersten, is set to retire in April 2024, succeeded by Paula Oyibo, the current Senior Vice President of Finance. Despite economic uncertainties and rising borrowing costs, affluent consumers continue to prioritise beauty and skincare purchases. The company’s success is attributed to consumer interest in dermatologist-recommended brands and the launch of new products, contributing to a quarterly net sales increase of 6.4% to $2.49bn and comparable sales up by 4.5% YoY. Ulta raised its annual profit forecast, citing strong demand for luxury skincare and fragrances. Despite prevailing economic uncertainties affecting various sectors, Ulta Beauty anticipates sustained strong performance, showcasing the beauty industry’s resilience. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $460 to $480. Positive Outlook.

犹他美容 (ULTA)

23财年第三季营收：24.9亿美元, 同比增幅8.3%，超预期2,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：5.07美元，超预期0.10美元
23财年指引：上调的净销售额预计在111亿美元至111.5亿美元之间，而市场预期为111.6亿美元。摊薄后每股收益预计在25.50美元至25.60美元之间，而市场预期为25.40美元。
短评：公司在第三季度取得了强劲的业绩，销售额同比增长6%。尽管经济前景不明朗，但该公司见证了消费者在香水、护肤品等方面的强劲支出。长期担任这家美容零售商首席财务官的斯科特·塞特斯滕将于2024年4月退休，现任财务高级副总裁宝拉·奥伊博将接替他的职位。尽管经济不确定，借贷成本上升，富裕的消费者仍然优先购买美容和护肤产品。该公司的成功归功于消费者对皮肤科医生推荐品牌的兴趣以及新产品的推出，这使得季度净销售额增长6.4%，达到24.9亿美元，可比销售额同比增长4.5%。公司上调了年度利润预期，理由是高端护肤品和香水需求强劲。尽管当前的经济不确定性影响了各个行业，但公司预计将持续强劲的表现，显示出美容行业的弹性。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：460美元至500美元。积极前景。

Dell Technologies Inc (DELL)

3Q24 Revenue: $22.3B, -9.8% YoY, miss estimates by $600M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.88, beat estimates by $0.42
FY24 Guidance: Raised expectations for FY23 EPS to $6.63, plus or minus 10 cents, compared with its prior forecast of $6.30, plus or minus 20 cents.
Comment: Dell Technologies reported Q3 revenue below expectations due to a slower-than-anticipated recovery in the hardware and software market. The company’s client solutions group, including consumer and enterprise PC business, saw a nearly 11% YoY revenue decline to $12.28bn. Dell’s servers and networking business revenue increased by 9%, driven by interest in generative artificial intelligence. However, supply constraints for AI chips impacted the server market. Despite this, Dell raised its full-year earnings per share outlook. The positive performance of major PC chipmakers like Intel and AMD indicates a recovering market, especially in anticipation of the upcoming holiday season. Looking ahead, the PC market is poised to benefit from the growing demand for AI-capable PCs. While we believe that immediate growth might be gradual, Dell’s sales are anticipated to see improvement, with more substantial growth likely in the coming year. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $72 to $75. Neutral Outlook.

戴尔科技(DELL)

24财年第三季营收：223亿美元, 同比跌幅9.8%，逊预期6,000万美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.88美元，超预期0.42美元
24财年指引：将23财年每股收益预期上调至6.63美元，上下浮动10美分，而此前预测为6.30美元，上下浮动20美分。
短评：戴尔科技公布第三季度收入低于预期，原因是硬件和软件市场的复苏速度低于预期。该公司的客户解决方案集团，包括消费者和企业PC业务，收入同比下降近11%，至122.8亿美元。戴尔的服务器和网络业务收入增长了9%，这得益于对生成式人工智能的兴趣。然而，人工智能芯片的供应限制影响了服务器市场。尽管如此，戴尔还是上调了全年每股收益预期。英特尔和AMD等主要个人电脑芯片制造商的积极表现表明市场正在复苏，尤其是在即将到来的假日季节的预期中。展望未来，个人电脑市场将受益于对具有人工智能功能的个人电脑日益增长的需求。虽然我们认为短期增长可能是渐进的，但戴尔的销售预计会有所改善，来年可能会有更大幅度的增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：68美元至78美元。中性前景。

UiPath Inc (PATH)

3Q24 Revenue: $326M, +24.1% YoY, beats estimates by $10.38M
3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.12, beat estimates by $0.05
4Q24 Guidance: Revenue in the range of $381M to $386M. ARR in the range of $1.450B to $1.455B as of January 31, 2024. Non-GAAP operating income of approximately $78M.
Comment: UiPath reported a robust third quarter, with a 24% YoY growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) to $1.378bn and a net new ARR of $70mn. The company’s strategic shift towards organisations with long term enterprise automation potential resulted in increased visibility in the management team and a record number of deals over $1mn in ARR, reaching 264, a 31% YoY rise. It also emphasized industry verticalisation and highlighted its strong performance in the federal sector, financial services and healthcare. Additionally, it introduced UiPath Autopilot, highlighted advancements in intelligent document processing as well as announced strategic partnerships with Deloitte, Amason Bedrock and Google Cloud Marketplace, underscoring its commitment to innovation. The company will continue to focus on strong top and bottom-line growth while continuing to expand its reach through partnerships and the technology innovations. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $20 to $28. Positive Outlook.

UiPath (PATH)

24财年第三季营收：3.26亿美元, 同比增幅24.1%，超预期1,038万美元
24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.12美元，超预期0.05美元
24财年第四季指引：收入在3.81亿至3.86亿美元之间。截至2024年1月31日，年经常性收入在14.5亿至14.55亿美元之间。Non-GAAP营业收入约为7,800万美元。
短评：公司第三季度业绩强劲，年度经常性收入(ARR)同比增长24%，达到13.78亿美元，新增ARR净额为7,000万美元。该公司的战略转向具有长期企业自动化潜力的组织，从而提高了管理团队的知名度，ARR超过100万美元的交易数量达到创纪录的264笔，同比增长31%。它还强调了行业的垂直化，并强调了其在联邦部门、金融服务和医疗保健方面的强劲表现。此外，它还推出了UiPath Autopilot，强调了智能文档处理方面的进步，并宣布与德勤(Deloitte)、亚马逊基石(Amazon Bedrock)和谷歌云市场(Google Cloud Marketplace)建立战略合作伙伴关系，强调了其对创新的承诺。该公司将继续专注于强劲的收入和利润增长，同时继续通过合作伙伴关系和技术创新扩大业务范围。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：20美元至28美元。积极前景。