Technical Analysis – 30 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Waste Management, Inc. (WM US)

• Shares closed at a high since July 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 215 Target 225, Stop 210
  

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 230 Target 242, Stop 224
  

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First Resources Ltd. (FR SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 1.48, Target 1.56, Stop 1.44
  

Frasers Property Ltd. (FPL SP)

• Shares closed at a high since January 2024.
  
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 0.88 Target 0.94, Stop 0.85
  

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HSBC Holdings plc. (5 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high with a surge in volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 71.0, Target 77.0, Stop 68.0
  

Standard Chartered plc. (2888 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 88.0, Target 94.0, Stop 85.0
  

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PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $7.8B, +5.4% YoY, miss estimates by $90M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.20, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be in low-single-digits, vs consensus of 5.4%; Expect adjusted EPS to be between $1.07 to $1.11, vs consensus of $1.10. FY24 guidance: Expect GAAP EPS to be between $3.92 and $3.96; Expect Non-GAAP EPS growth of high to mid-teens.
  
• Comment: PayPal delivered mixed results and issued cautious guidance. Total payment volume grew 9% to $422.6bn, with transaction margin dollars up 8% to $3.7bn. Management emphasized continued progress in the company’s transformation, focusing on launching new innovations, building partnerships with major commerce players, and enhancing brand engagement through fresh marketing campaigns. Looking ahead, PayPal aims to prioritize profitable growth and optimize key acquisitions. In the near term, CEO Alex Chriss highlighted two main revenue drivers: the Venmo debit card, which enables balance spending both online and offline, and Pay With Venmo, a streamlined online payment option. For the fourth quarter of 2024, PayPal projects low single-digit revenue growth, influenced by its price-to-value strategy and profitability focus. However, a low to mid-single-digit decline in adjusted earnings is anticipated, due to increased marketing investments supporting core initiatives and new product launches. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $70 to $90. Neutral Outlook.
  

贝宝 (PYPL)

• 24财年第三季营收：78亿美元，同比增幅5.4%，逊预期9,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.2美元，超预期0.13美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计营收增幅为低个位数，而市场普遍预期为5.4%；预计调整后每股收益将在1.07美元至1.11美元之间，而市场预期为1.10美元。
  
• 24财年指引：预计GAAP每股收益在3.92美元至3.96美元之间；预计Non-GAAP每股收益将增长15%至20%。
  
• 短评：贝宝的业绩好坏参半，并发布了谨慎的指引。支付总额增长9%，达到4,226亿美元，交易保证金增长8%，达到37亿美元。管理层强调了公司转型的持续进展，重点是推出新的创新，与主要商业参与者建立合作伙伴关系，并通过新的营销活动提高品牌参与度。展望未来，PayPal的目标是优先考虑盈利增长，并优化关键收购。在短期内，首席执行官亚历克斯·克里斯强调了两个主要的收入驱动因素：Venmo借记卡，它可以实现线上和线下的平衡支出，以及Pay With Venmo，一种简化的在线支付选择。对于2024年第四季度，贝宝预计收入将以低个位数增长，受其价值比策略和盈利能力的影响。然而，由于支持核心计划和新产品发布的营销投资增加，预计调整后收益将出现低至中个位数的下降。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：70至90美元。中性前景。
  

McDonald’s Corp. (MCD)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.87B, +2.7% YoY, beat estimates by $50M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.23, beat estimates by $0.03
  
• 3Q24 Dividend: Declared a 6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.77 per share.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect CAPEX to be in the range of $2.50 to $2.70; Expect operating margin to be in the mid-to-high 40% range; Expect 1,600 net restaurant unit additions in 2024.
  
• Comment: McDonald’s reported better-than-expected earnings but acknowledged that daily sales were impacted as some customers avoided its restaurants during the E. coli outbreak. This incident coincided with a period of increased U.S. sales, largely driven by promotions like the $5 meal deal. Third-party data indicated that foot traffic to the chain fell by more than 9% nationwide, with a 30% drop in Colorado. However, the company stated that the issue has been contained and does not expect a material impact on overall performance. Looking ahead, McDonald’s plans to revive muted demand through promotions and value menu items to restore consumer confidence and regain strong momentum in its U.S. business. The company also continues to expect 1,600 net restaurant unit additions in 2024. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $275 to $315. Neutral Outlook.
  

麦当劳 (MCD)

• 24财年第三季营收：68.7亿美元，同比增幅2.7%，超预期5,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.23美元，超预期0.03美元
  
• 24财年第三季股息：宣布季度股息增加6%，至每股1.77美元。
  
• 24财年指引：计资本支出在2.50美元至2.70美元之间；预计营业利润率将在40%左右；预计2024年净新增1600家餐厅单位。
  
• 短评：麦当劳公布了好于预期的收益，但承认日销售额受到影响，因为一些顾客在大肠杆菌爆发期间避开了麦当劳餐厅。这一事件发生时，麦当劳在美国的销售额正在增长，主要是受到5美元套餐等促销活动的推动。第三方数据显示，该连锁店的客流量在全国范围内下降了9%以上，科罗拉多州下降了30%。不过，该公司表示，该问题已得到控制，预计不会对整体业绩产生重大影响。展望未来，麦当劳计划通过促销活动和超值菜单来提振低迷的需求，以恢复消费者信心，重获美国业务的强劲势头。该公司还预计到2024年将净增加1600家餐厅。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：275至315美元。中性前景。
  

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $17.7B, +32.1% YoY, beat estimates by $2.83B
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.06, beat estimates by $0.45
  
• FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 revenue guidance to a range of $61.0bn to $64.0bn vs consensus of $61.06bn; Raise adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $2.75 to $2.95 vs consensus of $2.66.
  
• Comment: Pfizer delivered strong results and raised its FY24 outlook, driven by robust sales of its COVID-19 treatment, Paxlovid, which surged to $2.7bn, surpassing expectations. The company also reaffirmed its cost-cutting efforts, targeting at least $5.5bn in net savings from previously announced initiatives, with $4bn expected by year-end and approximately $1.5bn from the first phase of a manufacturing optimization program. Despite ongoing pressure from activist hedge fund Starboard Value, which has questioned Pfizer’s ability to produce profitable new drugs through internal R&D or acquisitions, management highlighted recent strategic adjustments, including a restructured commercial operations team, a newly appointed chief strategy officer, and plans to name a new head of R&D soon. Additionally, Pfizer is optimistic about its cancer drug pipeline, bolstered by its $43bn acquisition of Seagen last year, and sees this portfolio as a significant contributor to global public health advancements. However, there is a noted decline in long-term optimism regarding the company’s COVID-19 business. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $26 to $30. Neutral Outlook.
  

辉瑞 (PFE)

• 24财年第三季营收：177亿美元，同比增幅32.1%，超预期28.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.06美元，超预期0.45美元
  
• 24财年指引：将24财年收入预期从610.6亿美元上调至610亿至640亿美元；将调整后的稀释每股收益预期从2.66美元上调至2.75美元至2.95美元。
  
• 短评：辉瑞公司公布了强劲的业绩，并上调了24财年的预期，这得益于其治疗COVID-19的药物Paxlovid的强劲销售，销售额飙升至27亿美元，超出预期。该公司还重申了其削减成本的努力，目标是通过之前宣布的计划节省至少55亿美元的净成本，预计到年底将节省40亿美元，并通过制造优化计划的第一阶段节省约15亿美元。尽管维权对冲基金Starboard Value持续施压，质疑辉瑞是否有能力通过内部研发或收购来生产有利可图的新药，但管理层强调了最近的战略调整，包括重组商业运营团队，新任命首席战略官，并计划很快任命新的研发主管。此外，辉瑞对其癌症药物产品线持乐观态度，去年以430亿美元收购了Seagen，并将这一投资组合视为全球公共卫生进步的重要贡献者。然而，对该公司COVID-19业务的长期乐观情绪明显下降。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：26至30美元。中性前景。
  

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $4.89B, +16.4% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.20, beat estimates by $0.17
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.40 to $1.45, inluding $0.24 of headwinds due to Hurrican Milton, timing of cost shifting, and higher non-cash stock compensation.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Raise FY24 guidance. Expect FY24 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $11.57 to $11.62 vs $11.58 consensus.
  
• Comment: Royal Caribbean Cruises reported better-than-expected earnings for 4Q24, though revenue came in slightly below forecasts despite sustained high demand. The company raised its full-year outlook for 2024 and offered an optimistic early outlook for 2025, attributing this to strong demand at premium pricing for voyages to private destinations, as well as European and Alaskan cruises. However, its Q4 guidance remains somewhat below market expectations. Management emphasized the continued resilience of consumer spending, noting that American households are wealthier than ever, buoyed by wage growth and low unemployment. Over the past year, spending on leisure—especially travel—has grown faster than in most other categories, and market research projects a further increase in leisure spending over the next 12 months, with travel leading this growth. Additionally, anticipated interest rate cuts could further boost consumer spending across the travel sector. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $200 to $250. Positive Outlook.
  

皇家加勒比邮轮 (RCL)

• 24财年第三季营收：48.9亿美元，同比增幅16.4%，逊预期1,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：5.2美元，超预期0.17美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季度调整后的每股收益将在1.40美元至1.45美元之间，其中包括米尔顿飓风带来的0.24美元损失、成本转移的时间以及更高的非现金股票补偿。
  
• 24财年指引：提高24财年指引。预计全年调整后每股收益将在11.57美元至11.62美元之间，而市场预期为11.58美元。
  
• 短评：皇家加勒比邮轮公司公布的第四季度收益好于预期，尽管需求持续高涨，但收入略低于预期。该公司上调了2024年全年预期，并对2025年的早期前景表示乐观，原因是私人目的地以及欧洲和阿拉斯加邮轮的高端价格需求强劲。然而，其第四季度指引仍略低于市场预期。管理层强调了消费者支出的持续弹性，指出在工资增长和低失业率的推动下，美国家庭比以往任何时候都更富有。在过去的一年里，休闲消费——尤其是旅游消费——的增长速度超过了大多数其他类别。市场研究预测，未来12个月，休闲消费将进一步增长，其中旅游消费将引领这一增长。此外，预期中的降息可能会进一步刺激整个旅游行业的消费者支出。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：200至250美元。积极前景。
  

Crocs Inc. (CROX)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $1.06B, +1.0% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.60, beat estimates by $0.49
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect revenue to flat to slightly up compared to 4Q23; Expect adjusted operating margin of approx. 19.5%; Expect adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20 to $2.28 vs $2.73 consensus.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be approx. 3% YoY, which is at the lower end of prior guidance of 3% – 5%; Expect adjusted operating margin of more than 25%; Expect adjusted diluted EPS of $12.82 to $12.90 vs consensus of $12.85, at the high end of prior guidance of $12.45 to $12.90.
  
• Comment: Crocs delivered stronger-than-expected results, though it continues to face challenges with its HeyDude brand, which is expected to take longer to recover than initially anticipated. The company remains focused on refining its strategy for HeyDude, aiming to build brand relevance through targeted product and marketing initiatives. The core Crocs brand performed well, with international sales up 17% and an 8% increase in direct-to-consumer sales. Looking ahead, Crocs projects an 8% revenue increase for its core brand, while HeyDude is expected to see a revenue decline of about 14.5%. Despite the near-term challenges for HeyDude, management remains confident in its long-term potential. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $105 to $125. Neutral Outlook.
  

卡骆驰 (CROX)

• 24财年第三季营收：10.6亿美元，同比增幅1.0%，超预期1,000万美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.6美元，超预期0.49美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计营收将与去年第四季度持平或略有上升；预计调整后的营业利润率约为19.5%；预计调整后稀释每股收益为2.20美元至2.28美元，而市场预期为2.73美元。
  
• 24财年指引：预计收入增长约为。同比增长3%，处于此前指引的3% – 5%的低端；预计调整后营业利润率将超过25%；预计调整后的摊薄每股收益为12.82美元至12.90美元，而市场预期为12.85美元，处于之前指引12.45美元至12.90美元的高端。
  
• 短评：卡骆驰的业绩好于预期，但其HeyDude品牌仍面临挑战，预计需要比最初预期更长的时间才能恢复。该公司仍然专注于完善其HeyDude战略，旨在通过有针对性的产品和营销举措建立品牌相关性。卡骆驰的核心品牌表现良好，国际销售额增长17%，直接面向消费者的销售额增长8%。展望未来，卡骆驰预计其核心品牌的收入将增长8%，而HeyDude的收入预计将下降约14.5%。尽管HeyDude近期面临挑战，但管理层对其长期潜力仍充满信心。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：105至125美元。中性前景。
  

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $6.82B, +17.6% YoY, beat estimates by $110M
  
• 3Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.92, in-line with estimates
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be approx. $7.5bn, plus or minus $300mn, and vs a consensus of $7.55bn; Expect non-GAAP gross margin to be approx. 54%.
  
• Comment: AMD reported earnings in line with expectations but provided a softer-than-anticipated revenue forecast for 4Q24. The company raised its 2025 sales forecast for AI chips to $5bn, though this was below market expectations. Recently, AMD launched its MI235X AI chip and projected that the AI GPU market could reach $500bn by 2028, though market analysts still expect Nvidia to retain a dominant share. Management noted that AI chip supply will likely remain constrained through next year, a view echoed by key supplier TSMC, which expects tight production capacity for AI chips into 2025. While the ongoing PC replacement cycle may boost demand for AMD’s chips, supply constraints remain a critical concern. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $140 to $170. Neutral Outlook.
  

超微半导体 (AMD)

• 24财年第三季营收：68.2亿美元，同比增幅17.6%，超预期1.1亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.92美元，符合预期
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第四季营收约为75亿美元，正负3亿美元，而共识值为75.5亿美元；预计Non-GAAP毛利率约为54%。
  
• 短评：AMD公布的收益符合预期，但提供了低于预期的第四季度收入预测。该公司将2025年人工智能芯片的销售预测上调至50亿美元，尽管这低于市场预期。最近，AMD推出了其MI235X人工智能芯片，并预计到2028年，人工智能GPU市场可能达到5,000亿美元，尽管市场分析师仍预计英伟达将保持主导地位。管理层指出，明年人工智能芯片供应可能仍将受到限制，主要供应商台积电也持同样观点，该公司预计到2025年人工智能芯片的产能将会紧张。虽然目前的个人电脑更换周期可能会提振对AMD芯片的需求，但供应限制仍是一个关键问题。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：140至170美元。中性前景。
  

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $88.27B, +14.9% YoY, beat estimates by $2.05B
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.12, beat estimates by $0.27
  
• 3Q24 Dividend: Declare $0.20/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 0.47%; Payable Dec. 16; for shareholders of record Dec. 9; ex-div Dec. 9.
  
• FY24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 capex to be similar to 3Q24, FY25 capex would be higher than FY24.
  
• Comment: Alphabet reported strong results, highlighting that its AI investments are “paying off” with a 35% surge in its cloud business and increased YouTube ad sales driven by U.S. election-related spending. The cloud segment grew to $11.35bn—the fastest pace in eight quarters—as enterprises increased cloud spending, which is critical for supporting AI technologies. However, Google’s digital ad dominance is under pressure from competitors like Amazon and TikTok, which attract advertisers with direct access to active buyers. Alphabet’s Search business also faces regulatory scrutiny that could potentially impact its structure. Looking ahead, major cloud providers are expected to benefit from ongoing AI advancements, and management sees Alphabet as uniquely positioned to lead in this new era. The company anticipates increased capital expenditures in 2025 as it deepens its focus on emerging AI technologies. Additionally, advances in its AI-powered cloud offerings are expected to drive revenue growth in the near term. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $200. Positive Outlook.
  

谷歌 (GOOG)

• 24财年第三季营收：882.7亿美元，同比增幅14.9%，超预期20.5亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：2.12美元，超预期0.27美元
  
• 24财年第三季股息：宣布派发每股0.20美元的季度股息，与此前持平；远期股息率0.47%；12月16日为付息日；12月9日为股东登记日及除息日。
  
• 24财年指引：预计24财年第四季度的资本支出与24财年第三季度相似，25财年的资本支出将高于24财年。
  
• 短评：谷歌公布了强劲的业绩，强调其人工智能投资正在“获得回报”，其云业务激增35%，美国大选相关支出推动YouTube广告销售增加。随着企业增加云支出，云部门增长到113.5亿美元，这是八个季度以来最快的增长速度，这对支持人工智能技术至关重要。然而，谷歌在数字广告领域的主导地位正受到亚马逊和抖音等竞争对手的压力，后者通过直接接触活跃买家来吸引广告商。Alphabet的搜索业务也面临可能影响其结构的监管审查。展望未来，主要的云提供商有望从人工智能的持续进步中受益，管理层认为公司在这个新时代具有独特的领导地位。该公司预计，随着对新兴人工智能技术的关注加深，2025年的资本支出将增加。此外，其人工智能云服务的进步预计将在短期内推动收入增长。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：170至200美元。积极前景。
  

Visa Inc. (V)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $9.26B, +11.7% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.71, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• 4Q24 Dividend: Declare $0.59/share quarterly dividend, 13.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.52; Forward yield 0.84%; Payable Dec. 2; for shareholders of record Nov. 12; ex-div Nov. 12.
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect 1Q25 net revenue growth to be in high single digits; Expect operating expenses growth to be in high single digits to low double digits; Expect diluted Class A EPS growth to be low double digits.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect FY25 net revenue growth to be high single digits to low double digits; Expect operating expense growth to be high single-digit to low double-digit; Expect diluted class A EPS growth to be high end of low double digit.
  
• Comment: Visa reported strong results as consumers maintained robust spending, particularly on travel and dining, despite economic concerns. U.S. consumer spending has shown resilience amid high interest rates, with market optimism around a soft economic landing expected to further boost confidence and spending growth. Visa’s payments volume rose 8% in the quarter, and cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe transactions—a key measure of international travel demand—jumped 13%. Overall consumer spending levels held steady compared to 3Q24. However, payments volume growth in the Asia-Pacific region fell short of expectations due to economic challenges, particularly in China, where business sentiment has been weakened by a prolonged property crisis. Looking forward, management remains optimistic, citing stable underlying drivers and anticipating continued consumer resilience into 2025. Additionally, anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to further support consumption levels across markets. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $275 to $300. Positive Outlook.
  

威士 (V)

• 24财年第四季营收：92.6亿美元，同比增幅11.7%，超预期1.3亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.71美元，超预期0.13美元
  
• 24财年第四季股息：宣布派发每股0.59美元的季度股息，较先前派发的每股0.52美元增加13.5%；远期股息率0.84%；12月2日为付息款；11月12日为股东登记日和除息日。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计25年第一季度净收入增长将达到高个位数；预计运营费用增长将在高个位数到低两位数之间；预计稀释后的A类每股收益增长率为低两位数。
  
• 25财年指引：预计25财年净收入增长将达到高个位数至低两位数；预计运营费用增长将在高个位数到低两位数之间；预计稀释后的A类每股收益增长将达到两位数的高端。
  
• 短评：威士公布了强劲的业绩，因为消费者保持了强劲的支出，尤其是在旅游和餐饮方面，尽管存在经济担忧。在高利率背景下，美国消费者支出显示出韧性，市场对经济软着陆的乐观预期将进一步提振信心和支出增长。威士的支付量在本季度增长了8%，跨境支付量（不包括欧洲内部交易，这是衡量国际旅行需求的关键指标）增长了13%。与第三季度相比，整体消费者支出水平保持稳定。然而，由于经济挑战，亚太地区的支付量增长低于预期，特别是在中国，长期的房地产危机削弱了商业信心。展望未来，管理层保持乐观，认为潜在驱动因素稳定，并预计到2025年消费者将继续保持弹性。此外，预期中的降息将进一步支撑整个市场的消费水平。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：275至300美元。积极前景。
  

First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $887.67M, +10.8% YoY, miss estimates by $192.33M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $2.91, miss estimates by $0.25
  
• FY24 Guidance: Lower FY24 guidance. Expect net sales to be in the range of $41.0bn to $4.25bn, compared to a prior guidance of $4.4bn to $4.6bn; Expect gross margin to be between $1.95bn to $2.0bn, compared to $2.0bn to $2.1bn previously; Expect diluted EPS to be in the range of $13.0 to $13.5, compared to a range of $13.0 to $14.0 previously.
  
• Comment: First Solar reported disappointing results and lowered its FY24 sales forecast, even as third-quarter profit rose due to higher prices, partly driven by additional tariffs on foreign-made panels. The revised outlook points to a challenging year ahead, likely influenced by market pressures, operational adjustments, and increased competition or cost constraints. The Biden administration’s tariffs on imported solar modules have benefited U.S. producers like First Solar, but the solar industry faces headwinds: residential installations have dropped significantly this year, and utility-scale projects are hampered by lengthy grid connection delays and a shortage of skilled labor. Looking ahead, demand for residential solar remains uncertain despite expectations of increased consumption as interest rates eventually decline. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $170 to $210. Neutral Outlook.
  

第一太阳能 (FSLR)

• 24财年第三季营收：8.8767亿美元，同比增幅10.8%，逊预期1.9233亿美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：2.91美元，逊预期0.25美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：下调24财年指引。预计净销售额将在410亿美元至42.5亿美元之间，而此前的指引为44亿美元至46亿美元；预计毛利率将在19.5亿至20亿美元之间，而此前预计为20亿至21亿美元；预计稀释后每股收益将在13.0美元至13.5美元之间，而之前的范围为13.0美元至14.0美元。
  
• 24财年指引：提高24财年指引。预计全年调整后每股收益将在11.57美元至11.62美元之间，而市场预期为11.58美元。
  
• 短评：第一太阳能公布了令人失望的业绩，并下调了其24财年的销售预测，尽管第三季度利润有所增长，原因是价格上涨，部分原因是对外国制造的太阳能电池板征收额外关税。修订后的展望指出，未来一年将是充满挑战的一年，可能受到市场压力、运营调整、竞争加剧或成本限制的影响。拜登政府对进口太阳能组件征收的关税使第一太阳能等美国生产商受益，但太阳能行业面临逆风：今年住宅安装量大幅下降，公用事业规模的项目受到长时间电网连接延迟和熟练劳动力短缺的阻碍。展望未来，住宅太阳能的需求仍然不确定，尽管预期随着利率最终下降，消费将增加。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：170至210美元。中性前景。
  

Reddit Inc. (RDDT)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $348.4M, +67.9% YoY, beat estimates by $33.57M
  
• 3Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.16, beat estimates by $0.22
  
• 4Q24 Guidance: Expect 4Q24 revenue to be in the range of $385mn to $400mn vs $361.62mn consensus; Expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $110mn to $125mn.
  
• Comment: Reddit reported strong results and forecasted Q4 2024 revenue above estimates, driven by its AI content licensing agreements and robust digital advertising spending. The company’s ad revenue surged 56% year-over-year to $315.1 million, while other revenue skyrocketed 547% to $33.2 million. Revenue from content licensing deals with Alphabet’s Google and Microsoft-backed OpenAI has significantly contributed to this growth. Reddit also experienced a 47% increase in daily active unique visitors, reaching 97.2 million, with global average revenue per user (ARPU) rising 14% to $3.58. These results, the company’s third since going public in March, bolster confidence that more advertisers are turning to the platform. Initiatives like language translation using machine learning have helped attract new users. Looking ahead to 2025, Reddit plans to modernize its search products with enhanced results pages, autocomplete features, and the integration of large language models, all aimed at improving search results and driving more traffic to the platform. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $90 to $120. Positive Outlook.
  

Reddit (RDDT)

• 24财年第三季营收：3.484亿美元，同比增幅67.9%，超预期3,357万美元
  
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.16美元，超预期0.22美元
  
• 24财年第四季指引：预计第4季度营收将在3.85亿至4亿美元之间，而市场预期为3.6162亿美元；预计调整后的EBITDA将在1.1亿美元至1.25亿美元之间。
  
• 短评：受人工智能内容许可协议和强劲的数字广告支出的推动，Reddit公布了强劲的业绩，并预测2024年第四季度的收入高于预期。该公司的广告收入同比增长56%，至3.151亿美元，其他收入飙升547%，至3,320万美元。与Alphabet旗下的谷歌和微软支持的OpenAI达成的内容许可协议带来的收入对这一增长做出了重大贡献。Reddit的日活跃独立访客也增长了47%，达到9720万，全球平均每用户收入（ARPU）增长了14%，达到3.58美元。这是该公司自3月份上市以来的第三次业绩，增强了人们的信心，即越来越多的广告客户正在转向该平台。使用机器学习的语言翻译等举措有助于吸引新用户。展望2025年，Reddit计划通过增强结果页面、自动补全功能和集成大型语言模型来实现其搜索产品的现代化，所有这些都旨在改善搜索结果并为平台带来更多流量。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：90至120美元。积极前景。