Technical Analysis – 19 October 2023

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Valero Energy Corp. (VLO US)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
MACDis about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 132, Target 142, Stop 127

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC US)

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 153, Target 159, Stop 150

Rex International Holdings Ltd. (REXI SP)

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.184, Target 0.194, Stop 0.179

Silverlake Axis Ltd (SILV SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.275 Target 0.295 Stop 0.265

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd (998HK)

Shares closed above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 3.68, Target 3.88, Stop 3.58

CLP Holdings Ltd (2 HK)

Shares closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
Long – Entry 58.0, Target 61.0, Stop 56.5

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

3Q23 Revenue: $7.03 billion, +15.5% YoY, miss estimates by $92.4M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $5.07, beat estimates by $0.19
4Q23 Guidance: ASML expects Q4 2023 net sales between €6.7 billion and €7.1 billion, gross margin between 50% and 51% and expects R&D costs of around €1,030 million and SG&A costs of around €285 million. ASML confirms its expectation to grow net sales towards 30% in 2023.
Comment: ASML bookings for the quarter dropped 42% amid a continued slump in chip sector, as demand for products like smartphones and laptops remains weak. The company is also impacted by the chip curbs between U.S. and China. ASML, being headquartered in the Netherlands, faced exports restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipments in the country itself, as well in U.S. to China. With the U.S. China trade war likely to continue, ASML is likely to see restrictions towards the demand for semiconductors, alongside a lower demand as the global smartphone market continue to see a decline. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $550 to $650. Neutral Outlook.

阿斯麦 (ASML)

23财年第三季营收：70.3亿美元, 同比增幅15.5%，逊预期9,240万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：5.07美元，超预期0.19美元
23财年第四季指引：公司预计2023年第四季度净销售额在67亿欧元至71亿欧元之间，毛利率在50%至51%之间，研发成本约为10.3亿欧元，销售及行政费用成本约为2.85亿欧元。公司确认其预计到2023年净销售额将增长30%。
短评：由于智能手机和笔记本电脑等产品的需求依然疲软，芯片行业持续低迷，公司本季度的预订量下降了42%。该公司还受到美国和中国之间芯片限制的影响。总部设在荷兰的阿斯麦面临着荷兰和美国对中国出口先进半导体设备的限制。随着美中贸易战的持续，随着全球智能手机市场的持续下滑，公司的半导体需求可能会受到限制，需求也会下降。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：550美元至650美元。中性前景。

Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)

1Q24 Revenue: $21.87B, +6.1% YoY, beating estimates by $290M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.83, beat estimates by $0.11
FY24 Guidance: All-in sales growth to be in the range of two to four percent versus the prior year; diluted net earnings per share growth in the range of 6%-9% versus fiscal 2023 EPS of $5.90; effective tax rate of approximately 21%; Capital spending is now estimated to be approximately 4.5% of net sales; Adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% and expects to pay more than $9bn in dividends and to repurchase $5bn to $6bn of common shares in fiscal 2024.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results, but saw a decline in volume of the 6th consecutive quarter. The decline in volume was due to higher prices for the company’s products, which led to some consumers opting for other private-label alternatives. However, the company indicated that its volume declines have been narrowing in the recent quarters, and the company still expects to report a volume growth for the fiscal year. Consumers’ confidence has dipped slightly in October 2023 as interest rates remain high, where more consumers would look for value products than compared to pricier products, which may poise more headwinds for the company. 2Q24 recommended trading range: $145 to $155. Neutral Outlook.

保洁 (PG)

24财年第一季营收：218.7亿美元, 同比增幅6.1%，超预期2.9亿美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.83美元，超预期0.11美元
24财年指引：与去年同期相比，总销售额增长幅度在2%至4%之间；摊薄每股净收益增长6%至9%的范围，而2023财年每股收益为5.90美元；有效税率约21%；资本支出现在估计大约4.5%的净销售额；调整后的自由现金流生产率为90%，预计在2024财年支付超过90亿美元的股息，并回购50至60亿美元的普通股。
短评：该公司公布了一系列强劲的业绩，但销量连续第六个季度下降。销量下降的原因是该公司产品价格上涨，导致一些消费者选择其他自有品牌的替代品。然而，该公司表示，最近几个季度，其销量下降幅度一直在收窄，该公司仍有望在本财年实现销量增长。由于利率居高不下，消费者信心在2023年10月略有下降，与昂贵的产品相比，更多的消费者会寻找有性价比的产品，这可能会给公司带来更多的不利因素。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：145美元至155美元。中性前景。

Morgan Stanley (MS)

3Q23 Revenue: $13.27B, +2.2% YoY, beating estimates by $50M
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $1.38, beats estimates by $0.09
FY23 Guidance: based on where MS exited the quarter, it expects NII to trend lower. The magnitude will be a function of its deposit mix and the trajectory of rates.
Comment: Morgan Stanley reported a drop in profits for the quarter, as well as a slower growth for its largest business, wealth management business, as compensation costs in the division rose. The company also wanted that net interest income will fall again in the next quarter, following its decline of 9% in the current quarter. Management currently sees a “mixed” environment for the company’s businesses and acknowledge that the firm’s wealth management division gathered fewer new assets in recent quarters due to high interest rates making money market funds and treasuries attractive. However, he also highlighted that the wealth management business was still on trach to hit the company’s 3 years goal of generating $1tn in new assets. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $65 to $80. Negative Outlook.

摩根斯坦利 (MS)

23财年第三季营收：132.7亿美元, 同比增幅2.2%，超预期5,000万美元
23财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：1.38美元，超预期0.09美元
23财年指引：根据该行本季度结束时的表现，该公司预计净利息收入将呈下降趋势。其幅度将取决于其存款组合和利率轨迹。
短评：摩根士丹利公布该季度利润下降，其最大业务财富管理业务增长放缓，原因是该部门的薪酬成本上升。该公司还预期，继本季度下降9%之后，下一季度的净利息收入将再次下降。管理层目前认为公司业务面临”好坏参半”的环境，并承认公司财富管理部门近几个季度新增资产减少，因高利率令货币市场基金和公债更具吸引力。不过，他也强调，财富管理业务仍有望实现公司的3年目标，即创造1万亿美元的新资产。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：65美元至80美元。负面前景。

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

3Q23 Revenue: $23.35B, +8.9% YoY, missing estimates by $790M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.66, miss estimates by $0.07
FY23 Guidance: expect deliveries of 1.8M vehicles.
Comment: The company profits fell short of expectations in the latest quarter, impacted by planned factory closures and price cuts, narrowing the company’s gross margin, which dropped to 16.3%, its lowest level since the last quarter of 2017. Management issued a downbeat outlook, highlighting that the high interest rates environment would continue to limit the affordability of Tesla’s vehicles. The launch of the Cybertruck next month, is also expected to face more headwinds and production ramp-up would take at least 18 months.Management also mentioned that the Cybertruck would also require immense work to reach volume production and be cashflow positive at a price that people can afford. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $200 to $270. Neutral Outlook.

特斯拉 (TSLA)

23财年第三季营收：233.5亿美元, 同比增幅8.9%，超预期7.9亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.66美元，超预期0.07美元
23财年指引：预期交付180辆车
短评：受计划中的工厂关闭和降价的影响，该公司最近一个季度的利润低于预期，使该公司的毛利率降至16.3%，为2017年第四季度以来的最低水平。管理层发表了悲观的展望，强调高利率环境将继续限制特斯拉汽车的可负担性。下个月推出的赛博卡车预计也将面临更多阻力，产量增加至少需要18个月。管理层还提到，赛博卡车还需要大量的工作才能达到量产，并以人们可以承受的价格实现正现金流。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：200美元至270美元。中性前景。

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

3Q23 Revenue: $8.54B, +7.7% YoY, in-line with estimates
3Q23 GAAP EPS: $3.73, beat estimates by $0.23
4Q23 Guidance: Revenue of $8.69B vs. $8.54B consensus, EPS of $2.15 vs. $2.20 consensus.
Comment: The company reported a strong set of results for the quarter, adding 8.8mn new subscribers in the quarter, beating expectations of 6.2mn. This was largely attributed to the roll out of paid sharing, strong, steady programming and the ongoing expansion of streaming globally. The company expects 4Q23 subscribers net additions to be similar to the additions in 3Q23. Alongside the addition of more subscribers, the company also announced that they will be raising prices in the US, UK, France, with its prior price increase back in March 2022. This increase in membership prices is expected to drive the average revenue per membership higher. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $380 to $450. Positive Outlook.

奈飞 (NFLX)

23财年第三季营收：85.4亿美元, 同比增幅7.7%，符合预期
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.73美元，超预期0.23美元
23财年指引：营收86.9亿美元，预期为85.4亿美元；每股收益2.15美元，预期为2.20美元。
股息：公司宣布季度现金股息为每股0.10美元。这股息将于2023年12月14日支付给截至2023年12月1日的股东。
短评：该公司公布了一组强劲的季度业绩，在该季度增加了880万新用户，超过了620万的预期。这在很大程度上要归功于付费共享的推出、强劲、稳定的节目制作以及流媒体在全球的持续扩张。该公司预计，第4季度用户净增长将与第3季度相似。除了增加更多的用户外，该公司还宣布，他们将提高美国、英国和法国的价格，上一次涨价是在2022年3月。会员价格的上涨预计将推高每位会员的平均收入。23财年第四季度建议交易区间：380美元至450美元。积极前景。

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)

1Q24 Revenue: $3.48B, -31.4% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
1Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.85, beat estimates by $0.72
2Q24 Guidance: Revenue $3.7 Billion; Gross margin as a percentage of revenue 47%; Operating income as a percentage of revenue 29.5%; EPS $7.00.
Comment: Lam Research delivered a strong set of results despite it being a cyclically soft year for wafer fabrication equipment spending. Management highlights that there are tremendous growth vectors ahead for the company, and they are investing strategically to drive long-term performance. However, with several curbs made to the exports of semiconductor world wide, especially between China and United States, which may affect the topline demand for semiconductors. A lower demand for semiconductors due to the decline of the global smartphone market would pose more headwinds for the company as well. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $570 to $665. Neutral Outlook.

拉姆研究 (LRCX)

24财年第一季营收：34.8亿美元, 同比跌幅31.4%，超预期6,000万美元
24财年第一季Non-GAAP每股盈利：6.85美元，超预期0.72美元
24财年第二季指引：收入37亿美元；毛利率占收入的比例为47%；营业收入占营业收入的比例为29.5%；每股收益7.00美元。
短评：尽管今年是晶圆制造设备支出周期性疲软的一年，但公司仍取得了强劲的业绩。管理层强调，公司未来有巨大的增长空间，他们正在进行战略性投资，以推动长期业绩。然而，随着全球半导体出口的几项限制，特别是中国和美国之间的限制，这可能会影响半导体的最高需求。由于全球智能手机市场的萎缩，半导体需求的减少也会给三星电子带来更多的不利因素。24财年第二季度建议交易区间：570美元至665美元。中性前景。